Tropical Cyclone Lili formed over the Timor Sea on Thursday.\u00a0 At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Lili was located at latitude 9.1\u00b0S and longitude 128.8\u00b0E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) southeast of Tutuala, East Timor.\u00a0 Lili was moving toward the south-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km\/h).\u00a0 The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km\/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km\/h).\u00a0 The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.<\/p>\n
The circulation around a low pressure system over the Timor Sea exhibited more organization on Thursday and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Lili.\u00a0 Several bands of showers and thunderstorms began to wrap around the low level center of circulation.\u00a0 Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms began to develop around the periphery of the circulation.\u00a0 Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.\u00a0\u00a0 The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Lili was relatively small.\u00a0 Winds to tropical storm force only extended out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.<\/p>\n
Tropical Cyclone Lili will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 24 hours.\u00a0 Lili will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29\u00b0C.\u00a0 It will move under the western portion of an upper level ridge.\u00a0 Tropical Cyclone Lili will move through an area where the upper level winds are not too strong during the next 12 to 24 hours and there will not be a lot of vertical wind shear.\u00a0 Lili could intensify during that period.\u00a0 Tropical Cyclone Lili will move closer to the western end of the ridge in about 24 hours.\u00a0 There are strong northerly winds blowing around the western end of the ridge and there will be more vertical wind shear.\u00a0 If the shear increases, then the circulation around Lili is likely to weaken.<\/p>\n
Tropical Cyclone Lili will move north of a subtropical ridge.\u00a0 The ridge is likely to steer Lili more toward the west.\u00a0 On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Lili could reach East Timor in about 36 hours.\u00a0 Lili will bring gusty winds, but heavy rain and flooding are greater risks.\u00a0 An alternative forecast scenario is possible.\u00a0 If the vertical wind shear is not too strong and the vertical structure of Tropical Cyclone Lili remains intact, the upper level ridge could steer Lili more toward the south.\u00a0 In that case Tropical Cyclone Lili could bring rain to Western Australia.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Tropical Cyclone Lili formed over the Timor Sea on Thursday.\u00a0 At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Lili was located at latitude 9.1\u00b0S and longitude 128.8\u00b0E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) southeast of Tutuala, East Timor.\u00a0 Lili was moving toward the south-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km\/h).\u00a0 The […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[81,48,2],"tags":[1501,78,975,1503,70,1500,1502,641,1499],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7718"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7718"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7718\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7719,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7718\/revisions\/7719"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7718"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7718"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7718"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}