Tropical Storm Neoguri formed east of northern Luzon on Thursday.\u00a0 At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Neoguri was located at latitude 20.1\u00b0N and longitude 129.4\u00b0E which put it about 470 miles (755 km) south-southeast of Okinawa and about 500 miles (800 km) east-northeast of the northern end of Luzon.\u00a0 Neoguri was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km\/h).\u00a0 The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km\/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km\/h).\u00a0 The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.<\/p>\n
A distinct low level center of circulation developed on the western side of a cluster of thunderstorms east of northern Luzon on Thursday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Neoguri.\u00a0 The circulation around Neoguri exhibited much more organization.\u00a0 The inner part of a rainband wrapped around the center of circulation.\u00a0 A broken ring of thunderstorms formed around the southwestern half of the center and an elliptical eyelike feature appeared on microwave satellite images.\u00a0 The long axis of the elliptical eye was oriented northeast to southwest.\u00a0 Bands of showers and thunderstorms developed in the eastern half of Tropical Storm Neoguri.\u00a0 Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.\u00a0 Thunderstorms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.<\/p>\n
Tropical Storm Neoguri will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.\u00a0 Neoguri will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28\u00b0C.\u00a0 It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge where the winds are weaker.\u00a0 There will not be a lot of vertical wind shear during the next 24 hours.\u00a0 There appears to be drier air to the northwest of Tropical Storm Neoguri, which may be the reason why the rainbands in the western half of the circulation are weaker.\u00a0 If Neoguri pulls drier air into the core of the circulation, then that would inhibit intensification.\u00a0 On the other hand, if an eye does form completely, then Tropical Storm Neoguri could strengthen into a typhoon.<\/p>\n
The future track of Tropical Storm Neoguri will depend on how strong it becomes.\u00a0 If Neoguri strengthens, then a trough over China will likely steer the tropical storm toward the northeast.\u00a0 However, if drier air gets pulled into the core of the circulation, then a weaker Tropical Storm Neoguri would be steered by winds closer to the surface.\u00a0 A high pressure system over the Western North Pacific would steer Tropical Storm Neoguri toward the west.\u00a0 Guidance from numerical models is split between these two scenarios.\u00a0 Some models forecast a track toward the northeast and other models predict a track toward the west.\u00a0 Tropical Storm Neoguri did not move much on Thursday and either scenario is possible.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Tropical Storm Neoguri formed east of northern Luzon on Thursday.\u00a0 At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Neoguri was located at latitude 20.1\u00b0N and longitude 129.4\u00b0E which put it about 470 miles (755 km) south-southeast of Okinawa and about 500 miles (800 km) east-northeast of the northern end of Luzon.\u00a0 Neoguri […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,5],"tags":[191,44,103,1750,46,64,42,1749,192],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8647"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8647"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8647\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8648,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8647\/revisions\/8648"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8647"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8647"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8647"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}