Thunderstorms developed near a low level circulation on Sunday evening and the National Hurricane Center classified the system as Tropical Depression Two-E (TD2E).\u00a0 At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of TD2E was located at latitude 12.7\u00b0N and longitude 103.3\u00b0W which put it about 365 miles south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.\u00a0 TD2E was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h.\u00a0 The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km\/h) and there were gusts to 45 m.p.h. (70 km\/h).\u00a0 The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.<\/p>\n
The intensity forecast for TD2E is quite challenging.\u00a0 Upper level outflow from Hurricane Andres, which is about 1000 miles west of TD2E, is creating strong vertical wind shear over the top of the depression.\u00a0 The low level circulation of TD2E was completely exposed at times on Sunday afternoon as the higher level clouds were blown away from it.\u00a0 At other times thunderstorms developed quickly near the center of circulation.\u00a0 As long the outflow from Andres blows over the top of TD2E, it will inhibit intensification.\u00a0 On the other hand, the depression is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 30\u00b0C and there is a lot of energy in the upper layer of the ocean.\u00a0 Hurricane Andres is likely to weaken and move farther away from TD2E during the next few days.\u00a0 If that happens, then the vertical wind shear over TD2E will decreases.\u00a0 If the lower level structure of the depression is still intact at that time, then it will be able to extract energy from the ocean and intensify.\u00a0 Guidance from numerical models predicts TD2E will survive and intensify later this week.<\/p>\n
The track forecast is also challenging because it is partly dependent on the vertical height of the structure of the depression.\u00a0 If the depression is weak and shallow, it will be steered more by winds in the lower levels.\u00a0 Those winds would tend to steer it toward the west-northwest.\u00a0 If the depression intensifies and grows taller, it will be steered by winds higher in the atmosphere.\u00a0 Fluctuations in the amount of vertical wind shear and its subsequent effects on the intensity of TD2E could result in erratic motion for several days.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Thunderstorms developed near a low level circulation on Sunday evening and the National Hurricane Center classified the system as Tropical Depression Two-E (TD2E).\u00a0 At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of TD2E was located at latitude 12.7\u00b0N and longitude 103.3\u00b0W which put it about 365 miles south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.\u00a0 TD2E was moving toward […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,2],"tags":[24],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/876"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=876"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/876\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":877,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/876\/revisions\/877"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=876"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=876"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=876"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}