Tropical Cyclone Ashobaa moved northwestward across the Arabian Sea south of Pakistan on Monday.\u00a0 At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ashobaa was located at latitude 20.4\u00b0 and longitude 64.8\u00b0W which put it about 340 miles (550 km) south-southwest of Karachi, Pakistan.\u00a0 Ashobaa was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km\/h).\u00a0 The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km\/h) and there were gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km\/h).\u00a0 The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.<\/p>\n
More thunderstorms developed near the center of Ashobaa on Monday, but vertical wind shear is still inhibiting intensification.\u00a0 Ashobaa is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is warm and there is sufficient energy in the upper ocean to promote intensification.\u00a0 The circulation is extracting energy from the ocean and it is generating vigorous convection west of the center of circulation.\u00a0 However, an upper level ridge over southern Asia is creating moderate easterly winds over the top of Ashobaa.\u00a0 The resulting vertical wind shear is the reason why the strongest storms are west of the center.\u00a0 Ashobaa will spend several more days in a thermodynamic environment that favors intensification and if the upper level winds lessen, it will intensify.\u00a0 Eventually, when Ashobaa gets closer to land, the circulation will start to pull in drier air, which will weaken the tropical cyclone.<\/p>\n
A ridge over India is steering Ashobaa toward the northwest.\u00a0 A trough passing north of the Arabian Sea is expected to weaken the western end of the ridge and cause the tropical cyclone to turn more toward the north for a time.\u00a0 Eventually, most models are forecasting that the ridge will rebuild and steer Ashobaa toward the west-northwest.\u00a0\u00a0 However, some models are still predicting that Ashobaa could move northward and make landfall on the northern coast of the Arabian Sea.\u00a0 The spread in the guidance from the models makes the long-term track more uncertain.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Tropical Cyclone Ashobaa moved northwestward across the Arabian Sea south of Pakistan on Monday.\u00a0 At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ashobaa was located at latitude 20.4\u00b0 and longitude 64.8\u00b0W which put it about 340 miles (550 km) south-southwest of Karachi, Pakistan.\u00a0 Ashobaa was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[48,2],"tags":[57,111,54,55],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/946"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=946"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/946\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":949,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/946\/revisions\/949"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=946"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=946"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=946"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}