A small area of low pressure east of the Leeward Islands displayed increased organization today and a reconnaissance plane found that it had winds to tropical storm force.  Based on that information the National Hurricane Center classified the low as Tropical Storm Gonzalo.  At 1:30 p.m. EDT the center of Gonzalo was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 58.4°W which put it about 200 miles east of Guadaloupe and about 230 miles east-southeast of Antigua.  Gonzalo was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for Guadaloupe, Les Saintes, Maria Galante, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, St. Maartin, Saba, St. Eustatius, Barbuda, Antigua, Anguilla, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat.  Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, the U.S. Virgin Islands and the British Virgin Islands.

Gonzalo is begin steered westward by a subtropical high pressure system located north of it.  Gonzalo is likely to continue moving westward for another day or so until it nears the western end of the subtropical high.  At that point it is likely to turn more toward the northwest and then eventually start moving northward.  The numerical models are currently predicting that a large trough over the western U.S. will move eastward and turn Gonzalo toward the northeast as it moves north of Puerto Rico.

Gonzalo is currently experiencing some shear from the west.  However, it is over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  So, intensification is likely.  Gonzalo is a small tropical storm and small tropical cyclones can intensify or weaken more rapidly than larger storms.   A period of rapid intensification is possible if the shear diminishes a little more.   Gonzalo could become a hurricane before it gets to Puerto Rico.