Monthly Archives: February 2022

Tropical Cyclone Anika Moves along Western Australia Coast

Tropical Cyclone Anika moved along the coast of Western Australia on Sunday afternoon. At 1:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Anika was located at latitude 15.2°S and longitude 125.7°E which put it about 90 miles (145 km) southwest of Kalumburu, Australia. Anika was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Anika moved along the coast of Western Australia on Sunday afternoon. The center of Anika’s circulation was still over land. The strongest winds were occurring in the northwestern quadrant of Tropical Cyclone Anika, which was still over water. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Anika. The winds over land were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Troughton Island to Beagle Bay. The Warning included Cape Leveque and Derby. A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Beagle Bay to Bidyadanga. The Watch included Broome.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Anika remained well organized even though the center was over land. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern side of the center of Anika. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in a bands in the western side of the circulation. There was also a strong band in the eastern periphery of Tropical Cyclone Anika. Bands in other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Anika will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer Anika toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Anika will continue to move along the coast of Western Australia. Anika will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to places near the coast. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Warnings are in effect for the North Kimberly District and the West Kimberly District. Flood Watches are in effect for the Sandy Desert and for the Fitzroy River. The center of Anika could move back over water southwest of Kuri Bay on Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Anika is not likely to strengthen while the center is over land. However, since a portion of Anika’s circulation will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C, it could maintain its current intensity. Tropical Cyclone Anika will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Anika could strengthen again, if the center of circulation moves back over water.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Vernon weakened east-southeast of Diego Garcia. At 1:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vernon was located at latitude 12.4°S and longitude 88.3°E which put it about 1140 miles (1835 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia. Vernon was moving toward the east at 13 m.p.h (09 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Anika Hits Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Anika hit Western Australia on Saturday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Anika was located at latitude 13.8°S and longitude 126.8°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) northeast of Kalumburu, Australia. Anika was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h (12 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Anika made landfall on the coast of Western Australia northeast of Kalumburu on Saturday morning. Anika was intensifying at the time of landfall. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Anika’s circulation and an eye was developing. The developing eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Anika. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) from the center of Anika’s circulation.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the border between the Northern Territory and Western Australia and Kuri Bay. The Warning included Wyndham and Kalumburu. A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Kuri Bay to Beagle Bay.

Tropical Cyclone Anika will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer Anika toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Anika will move along the coast of Western Australia. Anika will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to places near the coast. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches are in effect for the East, North and West Kimberly River and for the Fitzroy River.

Tropical Cyclone Anika will weaken slowly while it moves along the coast of Western Australia. However, since almost half of Anika’s circulation will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C, the weakening will occur slowly. In addition, Tropical Cyclone Anika will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Anika could strengthen again, if the center of circulation moves back over water.

Tropical Cyclone Vernon Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Vernon rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean on Friday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vernon was located at latitude 14.6°S and longitude 90.3°E which put it about 245 miles (725 km) west-southwest of Cocos Island. Vernon was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h (29 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Vernon rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean west-southwest of Cocos Island on Friday night. A small eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Vernon. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Vernon’s circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Vernon was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Vernon. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Vernon was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 30.5.

Tropical Cyclone Vernon will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Vernon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge that is west of Australia. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Vernon will continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Vernon will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Vernon toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Vernon will move farther away from Cocos Island.

Tropical Cyclone Anika Develops over Timor Sea

Tropical Cyclone Anika developed over the Timor Sea west of Darwin, Australia on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Anika was located at latitude 12.8°S and longitude 127.6°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) north-northeast of Kalumburu, Australia. Anika was moving toward the south-southwest at 3 m.p.h (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Dundee Beach to Mitchell Plateau. The Warning included Wadeye, Wyndham and Kalumburu. A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Mitchell Plateau to Cockatoo Island. A Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Dundee Beach to Point Stuart. The Watch included Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the Timor Sea strengthened on Friday morning and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Anika. More thunderstorms developed around the center of Anika’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Anika. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Anika.

Tropical Cyclone Anika will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Anika will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Anika will strengthen during the next 24 hours and it could intensify rapidly. There is a chance that Anika could intensify to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Anika will be in a region where the steering winds are weak. A high pressure system over Australia will steer Anika slowly toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Anika will approach the coast of Western Australia northeast of Kalumburu in 24 hours. Anika could become nearly stationary when it approaches the coast. Tropical Cyclone Anika will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of Western Australia northeast of Kalumburu. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches have been issued for the East Kimberly Rivers, North Kimberly Rivers and West Kimberly Rivers.

Tropical Cyclone Vernon Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Vernon rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vernon was located at latitude 14.6°S and longitude 92.8°E which put it about 290 miles (465 km) southwest of Cocos Island. Vernon was moving toward the west-southwest at 14 m.p.h (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Vernon rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean southwest of Cocos Island on Friday morning. A small circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) formed at the center of Vernon’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Vernon. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The circulation around Vernon was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Vernon will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Vernon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge that is west of Australia. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Vernon will continue to intensify during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Vernon will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Vernon toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Vernon will move farther away from Cocos Island.

Tropical Cyclone Vernon Forms Southwest of Cocos Island

Tropical Cyclone Vernon formed over the South Indian Ocean southwest of Cocos Island on Thursday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vernon was located at latitude 13.5°S and longitude 95.3°E which put it about 140 miles (220 km) southwest of Cocos Island. Vernon was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean southwest of Cocos Island strengthened on Thursday night and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Vernon. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Cyclone Vernon. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Vernon’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Vernon will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Vernon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge that is west of Australia. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Vernon will intensify during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Vernon will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Vernon toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Vernon will move farther away from Cocos Island.

Tropical Low Forms West of Darwin

A Tropical Low formed west of Darwin, Australia on Wednesday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 12.5°S and longitude 128.5°E which put it about 160 miles (255 km) west of Darwin, Australia. The Tropical Low was nearly stationary. The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

The circulation around a small low pressure system over the Timor Sea west of Darwin, Australia exhibited more organization on Wednesday night and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as a Tropical Low. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands northwest of the center of the circulation. There was also a band of thunderstorms in the southwestern part of the Tropical Low. Bands in the northeastern part of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The Tropical Low will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 36 hours and it is forecast to remain nearly stationary. The Tropical Low will be in an environment somewhat favorable for intensification. The Tropical Low will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will be under the northern part of an upper level ridge centered over northern Australia. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the Tropical Low. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and the shear will inhibit intensification. The Tropical Low could gradually strengthen during the next 36 hours.

The Tropical Low is forecast to move toward Australia during the weekend. A Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from Point Stuart to Kalumburu. The Watch includes Darwin, Wyndham, Wadeye and the Tiwi Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati Brings Wind and Rain to Southern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Emnati brought wind and rain to southern Madagascar on Wednesday morning. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was located at latitude 24.0°S and longitude 45.8°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) east of Bekily, Madagascar. Emnati was moving toward the southwest at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati brought strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar on Wednesday morning. Emnati moved quickly toward the southwest after the center made landfall near Vohipeno. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Emnati remained well organized as it gradually weakened over Madagascar. A well defined center of circulation was still evident on satellite images. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati. The heaviest rain was falling in bands in the southern half of Emnati’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will continue to move quickly toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. The center of Emnati will move southwest of Madagascar later today. Gusty winds and locally heavy rain will continue over southern Madagascar during the next 24 hours. Weather conditions will improve when Tropical Cyclone Emnati moves away from Madagascar on Thursday.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati hits Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Emanti hit the east coast of Madagascar on Tuesday night. At 7:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was located at latitude 22.5°S and longitude 48.0°E which put it about 15 miles (25 km) south of Vohipeno, Madagascar. Emnati was moving toward the southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati made landfall on the east coast of Madagascar near Vohipeno on Tuesday night. Emnati was the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it made landfall. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation, The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Emnati was 12.7. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.1.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati never fully completed an eyewall replacement cycle before it hit the east coast of Madagascar. The circulation around the small inner eye persisted. The strongest thunderstorms and heaviest rains were occurring in the southern half of Emnati’s circulation. Bands in the northeastern part of Tropical Cyclone Emnati consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Northwesterly winds were sinking down the eastern slopes mountains in the northern part of Emnati’s circulation. The sinking, drier air was being pulled into the northeastern part of the tropical cyclone and it was inhibiting the development of thunderstorms in that region.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move around the northwestern part of a surface high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Emanti toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated path Tropical Cyclone Emanti will move across southeastern Madagascar during the next 24 hours. Emnati will weaken gradually as the center moves farther inland. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southeastern Madagascar. The heaviest rain will fall on the eastern slopes of mountains where easterly winds will push the air up the slopes. Flash floods are likely to occur in those areas. There could also be widespread electrical outages. Tropical Cyclone Emnati is the fourth tropical cyclone to hit Madagascar since the start of the tropical cyclone season in the Southwest Indian Ocean.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati Nears Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Emnati neared the east coast of Madagascar on Tuesday morning. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was located at latitude 20.2°S and longitude 49.9°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) northeast of Manajary, Madagascar. Emnati was moving toward the southwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati weakened as it neared the east coast of Madagascar. A long eyewall replacement cycle was disrupting the inner core of Emnati’s circulation. The inner eyewall was dissipating slowly. The strongest winds were occurring in the larger outer eyewall. A break in the ring of thunderstorms in the northwest side of the outer eyewall was evident on microwave satellite imagery. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the outer eyewall. Storms near the center of Emnati generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The long eyewall replacement cycle produced a large circulation around Tropical Cyclone Emnati. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Emnati. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Emnati was 13.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 25.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 39.6. Tropical Cyclone Emnati was capable of causing widespread serious damage.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Emnati will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Even though Tropical Cyclone Emnati will be in an environment favorable for intensification, the long eyewall replace cycle could cause Emnati to weaken while the inner eyewall fully dissipates. In addition, northwesterly winds blowing around the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Emanti could cause drier air to sink down the eastern side of mountains in Madagascar. The drier air could weaken thunderstorms in the northern part of Emnati’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Emnati toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Emanti will reach the east coast of Madagascar in 12 hours. The center of Emnati could make landfall between Nosy Varika and Farafangana. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will be capable of causing widespread serious damage to southern Madagascar. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will bring strong destructive winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Widespread electrical outages are likely to occur. Emanti will also cause a significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Madagascar.