Tag Archives: Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Jude Meanders over Mozambique

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Tropical Cyclone Jude meandered over Mozambique on Tuesday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude was located at latitude 16.1°S and longitude 35.9°E which put the center about 150 miles (240 km) north-northwest of Quelimane, Mozambique.  Jude was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jude remained well organized on Tuesday even though Jude had been over land for more than 36 hours.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms continued to revolve around the center of Jude’s circulation  Storms near the center of Jude’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jude was large.  Jude was affecting the weather in Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar, eastern Zimbabwe, and southern Tanzania.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is centered north of Madagascar.  The high pressure system will steer Jude toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Jude will move back toward the Mozambique Channel.

Tropical Cyclone Jude is not likely to intensify while the center of circulation is still over land.  Jude will move into an environment favorable for intensification when it moves over the Mozambique Channel.  Jude will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Jude is likely to intensify when it moves back over the Mozambique Channel.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will continue to drop heavy rain on parts of Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar, eastern Zimbabwe, and southern Tanzania.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ivone remained far to the south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ivone was located at latitude 19.8°S and longitude 76.4°E which put the center about 925 miles (1495 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Ivone was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jude Brings Wind and Rain to Mozambique

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Tropical Cyclone Jude brought wind and rain to northern Mozambique and to Malawi on Monday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude was located at latitude 14.6°S and longitude 37.9°E which put the center about 110 miles (175 km) northwest of Nampula, Mozambique.  Jude was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Jude hit the coast of Mozambique just to the south of Nacala on Sunday night.  Jude then moved inland over northern Mozambique on Monday.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jude brought strong winds and heavy rain to parts of northern Mozambique.  Bands in the western part of Jude’s circulation also brought strong winds and heavy rain to Malawi.

The winds steering Tropical Cyclone Jude toward the west will weaken during the next 24 hours.  As a result, Tropical Cyclone Jude will meander over northern Mozambique on Tuesday.  Jude could start to move south back toward the Mozambique Channel later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will continue to weaken while it is over northern Mozambique.  However, the circulation around Jude will continue to produce gusty winds and heavy rain over parts of northern Mozambique and over Malawi.  Prolonged heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ivone continued to spin far to the south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ivone was located at latitude 20.2°S and longitude 80.5°E which put the center about 1070 miles (1725 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Ivone was moving toward the southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jude Hits Mozambique

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Tropical Cyclone Jude hit Mozambique on Sunday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude was located at latitude 15.2°S and longitude 39.5°E which put the center about 70 miles (110 km) southwest of Nacala, Mozambique.  Jude was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Jude hit the coast of Mozambique just to the south of Nacala on Sunday night.  Jude was the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon at the time of landfall.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) at the time of landfall.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Jude was 13.9 at the time of landfall.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.9.  Tropical Cyclone Jude was similar in intensity to Hurricane Hanna when Hanna hit south Texas in 2020. Jude was larger than Hanna was.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jude remains well organized even though the center of Jude’s circulation has been over land for a few hours.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude.  Storms near the center of circulation continue to generate upper level divergence that is pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jude continues to be symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Jude’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Mozambique Channel.  The high pressure system will steer Jude toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Jude will move farther inland over northern Mozambique.  Jude could turn toward the south during the middle of the week.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of northern Mozambique.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Jude will weaken gradually while the center is over land.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ivone was passing far to the south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ivone was located at latitude 19.4°S and longitude 81.9°E which put the center about 1060 miles (1660 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Ivone was moving toward the south-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jude Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

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Tropical Cyclone Jude intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it neared the coast of Mozambique on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude was located at latitude 14.9°S and longitude 40.8°E which put the center about 40 miles (65 km) east-southeast of Nacala, Mozambique.  Jude was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jude rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it neared the coast of Mozambique on Sunday.  A small circular eye formed at the center of Jude’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude.  Storms near the center of Jude generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jude was symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Jude’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Jude is 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 27.9.  Tropical Cyclone Jude is similar in intensity to Hurricane Hanna when Hanna hit south Texas in 2020.  Jude is larger than Hanna was.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Jude will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Jude will intensify during the next few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Mozambique Channel.  The high pressure system will steer Jude toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude will reach the coast of Mozambique near Nacala in a few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it reaches Mozambique.  Jude will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Mozambique.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods.  Tropical Cyclone Jude will also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast of Mozambique.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ivone continued to spin far to the southeast of Diego Garcia.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ivone was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 82.9°E which put the center about 1005 miles (1625 km) southeast of Diego Garcia.  Ivone was moving toward the south-southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jude Forms over the Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Jude formed over the Mozambique Channel on Saturday afternoon.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude was located at latitude 14.6°S and longitude 45.1°E which put the center about 280 miles (450 km) east of Nacala, Mozambique.  Jude was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A low pressure system strengthened over the Mozambique Channel on Saturday after moving across northern Madagascar.  Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Jude.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jude appeared to be organizing quickly.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Jude’s circulation.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Jude’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Jude generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jude was symmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Jude’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Jude will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Jude will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Jude could intensify rapidly.  Tropical Cyclone Jude is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Mozambique Channel.   The high pressure system will steer Jude toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Jude will reach the coast of Mozambique near Nacala in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it reaches Mozambique.  Jude will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Mozambique.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods.  Tropical Cyclone Jude will also cause a storm surge along the coast of Mozambique.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ivone formed east-southeast of Diego Garcia.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ivone was located at latitude 13.4°S and longitude 84.0°E which put the center about 875 miles (1415 km) east-southeast of Nacala, Mozambique.  Ivone was moving toward the south-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Vince Passes South of Diego Garcia

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Vince was passing far to the south of Diego Garcia on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vince was located at latitude 20.1°S and longitude 75.3°E which put the center about 925 miles (1495 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Vince was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 932 mb.

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Vince maintained its intensity as it passed far to the south of Diego Garcia on Friday.  A circular eye with a diameters of 23 miles (37 km) was at the center of Vince’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Storms near the center of Vince generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The divergence of mass in the upper levels of the atmosphere was almost balanced by the inflow of mass in the lower levels.  The effect of the near balance of divergence and inflow was to keep the surface pressure nearly steady.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Vince was very symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Vince’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Vince.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Vince is 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 15.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 47.2.  Tropical Cyclone Vince is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Ida when Ida hit Louisiana in 2021

.Tropical Cyclone Vince will move through an environment favorable for an intense tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Vince will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Vince’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Vince is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours, unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs.

Tropical Cyclone Vince will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Vince toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Vince will move toward Rodrigues.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Taliah was passing south of the Cocos Islands.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Taliah was located at latitude 15.8°S and longitude 96.4°E which put the center about 250 miles (400 km) south of the Cocos Islands.  Taliah was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Vince Intensifies to Equivalent of Cat. 4 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Vince intensified to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the South Indian Ocean far to the south-southeast of Diego Garcia on Thursday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vince was located at latitude 19.8°S and longitude 80.2°E which put the center about 985 miles (1590 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Vince was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 924 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Vince intensified to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on Thursday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Vince’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Storms near the center of Vince generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly,

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Vince decreased when Vince intensified on Thursday.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Vince’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Vince.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Vince is 33.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 16.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 49.3.  Tropical Cyclone Vince is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Ian when Ian hit Southwest Florida in 2022.

Tropical Cyclone Vince will move through an environment favorable for an intense tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Vince will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Vince’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Vince could intensify during the next 24 hours, unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs.

Tropical Cyclone Vince will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Vince toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Vince will pass far to the south of Diego Garcia.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Taliah continued to spin east-southeast of the Cocos Islands.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Taliah was located at latitude 14.5°S and longitude 101.0°E which put the center about 345 miles (500 km) east-southeast of the Cocos Islands.  Taliah was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Vince Churns Southeast of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Vince churned over the South Indian Ocean far to the southeast of Diego Garcia on Wednesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vince was located at latitude 18.9°S and longitude 83.5°E which put the center about 945 miles (1525 km) southeast of Diego Garcia.  Vince was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 951 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Vince completed an eyewall replacement cycle on Wednesday.  Vince began to intensify again after it completed the eyewall replacement cycle.  A new circular eye was present at the center of Vince’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Even though Tropical Cyclone Vince was the equivalent of a major hurricane, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern and western parts of Vince’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern and southern parts of Tropical Cyclone Vince consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Vince generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Vince increased as a result of the eyewall replacement cycle.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Vince’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Vince.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Vince is 23.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 38.0.  Tropical Cyclone Vince is similar in intensity to Hurricane Dennis when Dennis hit Northwest Florida in 2005.  Vince is larger than Dennis was.

Tropical Cyclone Vince will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Vince will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Vince’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Vince is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours, unless another eyewall replacement cycle occurs.

Tropical Cyclone Vince will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Vince toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Vince will pass far to the south of Diego Garcia later this week.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Taliah weakened gradually as it spun east-southeast of the Cocos Islands. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Taliah was located at latitude 14.8°S and longitude 105.5°E which put the center about 635 miles (1025 km) east-southeast of the Cocos Islands.  Taliah was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Vince Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Vince intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean southwest of the Cocos Islands during Monday night.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vince was located at latitude 18.6°S and longitude 89.6°E which put the center about 595 miles (960 km) southwest of the Cocos Islands.  Vince was moving toward the southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 958 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Vince intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane during Monday night.  Vince appeared to go through an eyewall replacement cycle after it intensified.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the original small eye at the center of Vince’s circulation.  The small eye dissipated and a larger outer eye formed.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Vince weakened after the eyewalll replacement cycle.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the new larger eye.  The strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone Vince was asymmetrical.  Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of Vince’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Vince consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Vince generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.

The eyewall replacement cycle caused the size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Vince to increase.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Vince’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Vince.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Vince was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.3.  Tropical Cyclone Vince was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Delta when Delta hit Southwest Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Vince will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Vince will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Vince’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  Even though Tropical Cyclone Vince will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours, Vince is likely to weaken due to the effects of the eyewall replacement cycle.

Tropical Cyclone Vince will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Vince toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Vince will pass far to the south of Diego Garcia later this week.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Taliah intensified as it moved farther away from Western Australia.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Taliah was located at latitude 15.6°S and longitude 110.4°E which put the center about 515 miles (830 km) north-northwest of Exmouth, Australia.  Taliah was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Bheki intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki was located at latitude 13.1°S and longitude 74.0°E which put the center about 415 miles (670 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Bheki was moving toward the southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Friday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Bheki’s circulation.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.  The strongest winds were occurring in the part of the rainband that wrapped around the center of Bheki.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorm were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.  Storms near the center of Bheki’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Bheki was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Bheki’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bheki will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the upper level ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Bheki is likely to continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bheki toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Bheki will pass far to the south of Diego Garcia on Saturday.