Tropical Cyclone Dudzai moved toward the west over the South Indian Ocean on Wednesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was located at latitude 17.2°S and longitude 75.9°E which put the center about 740 miles (1195 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Dudzai was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai continued to be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it moved westward over the South Indian Ocean on Wednesday.  Thunderstorms continued to develop near the center of Dudzai’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.  Storms near the center of Dudzai generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the convergence of the mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure was nearly steady on Wednesday afternoon.

The strongest winds were occurring in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the southern half of Dudzai’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the southern side of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles in the northern half of Dudzai’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move into an environment that will become more favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move farther away from cooler water it mixed to the surface while it moved slowly during the beginning of this week.  Dudzai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.   It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dudzai’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai is likely to intensify on Thursday.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dudzai toward the west on during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will remain far to the south of Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai weakened as it moved over the South Indian Ocean on Tuesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was located at latitude 17.2°S and longitude 77.5°E which put the center about 775 miles (1255 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Dudzai was moving toward the west at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai weakened on Tuesday.  Dudzai continued to move slowly over cooler water its winds had mixed to the surface of the ocean.  The cooler water contained less energy.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai weakened because it was extracting less energy from the ocean.

Even though Tropical Cyclone Dudzai weakened, its structure remained intact.  There was a very small circular eye at the center of Dudzai’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Dudzai’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Dudzai generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  However, the removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure was increasing.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Dudzai’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Dudzai is 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 9.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 23.7.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Hannah when Hannah hit Texas in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.   The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dudzai’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  In addition, the strong winds in the lower levels of Dudzai’s circulation will continue to mix cooler water to the surface of the South Indian Ocean.  The cooler water will transfer less energy into Tropical Cyclone Dudzai. Tropical Cyclone Dudzai is likely to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours due to the upwelling of cooler water.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move around the northeastern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dudzai toward the west on during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will remain far to the south of Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean on Sunday night.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was located at latitude 16.7°S and longitude 77.8°E which put the center about 745 miles (1205 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Dudzai was moving toward the south-southeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai continued to intensify rapidly on Sunday night.  A small circular eye was present at the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Dudzai’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Dudzai generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Dudzai’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dudzai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Dudzai could continue to intensify rapidly during the next few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move into a region where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours.  Dudzai is likely to move slowly toward the south during the next day or so.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move a little farther away from Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean on Sunday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was located at latitude 16.1°S and longitude 77.5°E which put the center about 700 miles (1125 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Dudzai was moving toward the south-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Sunday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Dudzai’s circulation.  A small circular eye formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Dudzai’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Dudzai generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Dudzai’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dudzai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Dudzai could continue to intensify rapidly during the next few hours.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dudzai toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move farther away from Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai developed over the South Indian Ocean on Saturday night.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was located at latitude 15.2°S and longitude 77.2°E which put the center about 625 miles (1005 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Dudzai was moving toward the southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean south-southeast of Diego Garcia strengthened on Saturday night and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai appeared to be intensifying rapidly on Sunday morning.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Dudzai’s circulation.  A small eye appeared to be forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Dudzai’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Dudzai generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Dudzai’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dudzai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Dudzai could intensify rapidly.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dudzai toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move farther away from Diego Garcia.