Monthly Archives: September 2023

Tropical Storm Koinu Forms Southeast of Taiwan

Tropical Storm Koinu formed over the Western North Pacific Ocean southeast of Taiwan on Friday night. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Koinu was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 130.9°E which put it about 850 miles (1730 km) southeast of Taipei, Taiwan. Koinu was moving toward the west-northwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean southeast of Taiwan strengthened on Friday night and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Koinu. The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Storm Koinu was asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Koinu’s circulation. Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Koinu consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Koinu’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 170 miles (275 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Koinu will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Koinu will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Koinu’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be strong enough to completely stop intensification. Tropical Storm Koinu is likely to intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Koinu will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Koinu toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Koinu will move closer to Taiwan. Koinu could approach southern Taiwan in four days. It could be a typhoon when it approaches Taiwan.

Tropical Storm Philippe Meanders East of the Leeward Islands

Tropical Storm Philippe meandered over the Atlantic Ocean east of the Leeward Islands on Friday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 55.8°W which put it about 480 miles (775 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands. Philippe was moving toward the southwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Rina moved around formed the northeastern periphery of Tropical Storm Philippe on Friday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Rina was located at latitude 20.4°N and longitude 48.8°W which put it about 945 miles (1520 km) east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands. Rina was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

The circulations around Tropical Storm Philippe and Tropical Storm Rina continued to interact on Friday. Philippe and Rina revolved around a point between the centers of the two tropical storms in a motion called the Fujiwhara effect. An upper level trough over the Atlantic Ocean east of Bermuda produced westerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Philippe’s circulation. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Philippe to be asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. Bands near the center of Tropical Storm Philippe and in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The distribution of wind speeds was also asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Philippe were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Philippe was also affecting Tropical Storm Rina. Upper level divergence from Philippe was adding to the westerly winds blowing toward the top of Rina’ circulation. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear in Tropical Storm Rina. The wind shear also caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Rina to be asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Rina were in bands in the southern and eastern parts of Rina’s circulation. Bands in the northern and western parts of Rina consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) in the eastern part of Rina’s circulation. Winds in the western side of Rina were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move through a region unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Philippe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. However, the upper level trough east of Bermuda will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear is likely to keep Tropical Storm Philippe from intensifying on Saturday.

The interaction between Tropical Storm Philippe and Tropical Storm Rina will continue on Saturday. Philippe and Rina will continue their counterclockwise loop around a point in between the two tropical storms. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Philippe will move slowly toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. Tropical Storm Rina is forecast to move toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Philippe Stalls East of the Leeward Islands

Tropical Storm Philippe stalled east of the Leeward Islands on Thursday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located at latitude 18.3°N and longitude 55.0°W which put it about 530 miles (855 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands. Philippe was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Rina formed over the Atlantic Ocean about 550 miles (890 km) east of Tropical Storm Philippe on Thursday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Rina was located at latitude 18.4°N and longitude 46.6°W which put it about 1080 miles (1740 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands. Rina was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Tropical Storm Philippe stalled east of the Leeward Islands on Thursday when the circulation around Philippe began to interact with the circulation around Tropical Storm Rina. Philippe also weakened a little on Thursday. An upper level trough over the Caribbean Sea was producing southerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Philippe’s circulation. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear. The low level center of Tropical Storm Philippe was large and weak. The wind shear was also causing the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Philippe to be asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. Bands near the center of Tropical Storm Philippe and in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The distribution of wind speeds was also asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Philippe were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Philippe was also affecting Tropical Storm Rina. Upper level divergence from Philippe was causing vertical wind shear in Tropical Storm Rina. The wind shear was causing the distribution of thunderstorms in Rina to be asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Rina were in bands in the southern and eastern parts of Rina’s circulation. Bands in the northern and western parts of Rina consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the eastern part of Rina’s circulation. Winds in the western side of Rina were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move through a region unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Philippe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, the upper level trough over the Caribbean Sea will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear is likely to keep Tropical Storm Philippe from intensifying on Friday.

The interaction between Tropical Storm Philippe and Tropical Storm Rina will increase on Friday. Philippe and Rina are likely to start a counterclockwise loop around a point in between the two tropical storms. The situation when two tropical cyclones loop around a point between them is sometimes called the Fujiwhara effect. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Philippe will move slowly toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. Tropical Storm Rina is forecast to move slowly toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Philippe Moves Toward Northern Leeward Islands

Tropical Storm Philippe moved toward the Northern Leeward Islands on Wednesday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located at latitude 18.2°N and longitude 54.5°W which put it about 565 miles (910 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands. Philippe was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Philippe continued to be affected by strong vertical wind shear on Wednesday. An upper level trough over the eastern Caribbean Sea was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Philippe’s circulation. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear. The wind shear was causing the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Philippe to be asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. Bands near the center of Tropical Storm Philippe and in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The distribution of wind speeds was also asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 170 miles (275 km) in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Philippe were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move through a region unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Philippe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, the upper level trough over the eastern Caribbean Sea will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear is likely to keep Tropical Storm Philippe from intensifying on Thursday.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the central Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Philippe toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Philippe could approach the Northern Leeward Islands during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Philippe Weakens a Little

Tropical Storm Philippe weakened a little on Tuesday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 52.0°W which put it about 730 miles (1180 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands . Philippe was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Storm Philippe continued to be affected by strong vertical wind shear on Tuesday. An upper level trough over the central Atlantic Ocean was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Philippe’s circulation. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear. The wind shear was causing the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Philippe to be asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. Bands near the center of Tropical Storm Philippe and in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The distribution of wind speeds was also asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 230 miles (370 km) in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Philippe were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move through a region unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Philippe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, the upper level trough over the central Atlantic will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear is likely to cause Tropical Storm Philippe to weaken a little more on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move around the southwestern side of a high pressure system over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Philippe toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Philippe could be northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands by the end of the week.

Tropical Storm Philippe Churns West

Tropical Storm Philippe churned westward over the Atlantic Ocean east of the Leeward Islands on Monday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 47.8°W which put it about 1005 miles (1620 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands. Philippe was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

Tropical Storm Philippe was affected by strong vertical wind shear on Monday. An upper level low over the central Atlantic Ocean was producing westerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Philippe’s circulation. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear. The wind shear was causing the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Philippe to be asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. Bands near the center of Tropical Storm Philippe and in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The distribution of wind speeds was also asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 170 miles (275 km) in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. Tropical storm force winds only extended out 60 miles in the western side of Philippe.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move through a region unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Philippe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, the upper level low over the central Atlantic will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear is likely to cause Tropical Storm Philippe to weaken on Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move around the southwestern side of a high pressure system over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Philippe toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Philippe could be northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands by the end of the week.

Tropical Storm Philippe Strengthens East of Lesser Antilles

Tropical Storm Philippe strengthened over the Atlantic Ocean east of the Lesser Antilles on Sunday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 42.5°W which put it about 1275 miles (2055 km) east of the Lesser Antilles. Philippe was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Even though Tropical Storm Philippe strengthened on Sunday, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. Bands in the western half of Tropical Storm Philippe consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. An upper level low over the central Atlantic Ocean was producing westerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Philippe’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Philippe’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move through a region marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Philippe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, the upper level low over the central Atlantic will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Philippe could intensify a little on Monday, if the vertical wind shear does not get any stronger. If the wind shear does increase, then Philippe is likely to weaken.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move around the southwestern side of a high pressure system over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Philippe toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Philippe will pass far to the northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.

Tropical Storm Ophelia Brings Wind and Rain to Eastern North Carolina, Virginia

Tropical Storm Ophelia brought wind and rain to eastern North Carolina and Virginia on Saturday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was located at latitude 35.1°N and longitude 77.0°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km) northwest of Cape Lookout, North Carolina. Ophelia was moving toward the north at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Fear, North Carolina to Fenwick Island, Delaware. The Tropical Storm Warning included Albemarle Sound and Pamlico Sound. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island.

Tropical Storm Ophelia brought wind and rain as it moved inland over eastern North Carolina on Saturday morning. The circulation around Ophelia was large. Tropical Storm Opehila was interacting with a high pressure system over eastern Canada to produce strong winds northeast of the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 310 miles (500 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Ophelia’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the other parts of Tropical Storm Ophelia.

A weather station in Cape Lookout, North Carolina reported a sustained wind speed of 47 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and a wind gust of 71 m.p.h. (115 km/h). A weather station in Morehead City, North Carolina reported a sustained wind speed of 43 m.p.h. (68 km/h) and a wind gust of 53 m.p.h. (85 km/h). NOAA buoy 41037 near Wrightsville Beach reported a sustained wind speed of 54 m.p.h. (87 km/h) and a wind gust of 83 m.p.h. (134 km/h).

Tropical Storm Ophelia will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ophelia toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Ophelia will move inland over eastern North Carolina and Virginia. Ophelia will bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to eastern North Carolina, eastern Virginia, southeastern Maryland and southern Delaware.

The heaviest rain was falling in bands in the northern and western parts of Tropical Storm Ophelia. Bands in the eastern and southern parts of Ophelia’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches were in effect for eastern North Carolina, eastern Virginia, Maryland and Delaware.

Easterly winds in the northern side of Tropical Storm Ophelia will blow water toward the coast. A storm surge of up to 6 feet (1.8 meters) could occur in some locations. A Storm Surge Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bogue Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia. The Storm Surge Warning included Albemarle Sound, Pamlico Sound, the Pamlico River and the Neuse River. A Storm Surge Warning was in effect for Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach, Virginia. Large waves will also cause significant beach erosion.

Tropical Storm Ophelia Develops South of Cape Hatteras

Tropical Storm Ophelia developed south of Cape Hatteras on Friday afternoon. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was located at latitude 32.7°N and longitude 76.0°W which put it about 185 miles (295 km) south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Ophelia was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Fear, North Carolina to Fenwick Island, Delaware. The Tropical Storm Warning included Albemarle Sound and Pamlico Sound. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center designated a low pressure system south of Cape Hatteras as Tropical Storm Ophelia on Friday afternoon. Drier air was wrapping around the southern and eastern sides of Ophelia’s circulation. The drier air was making the distribution of thunderstorms asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern and western parts of Tropical Storm Ophelia. Bands in the southern and eastern parts of Ophelia consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms north and west of the center of Ophelia’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The circulation around Tropical Storm Ophelia was large, Winds to tropical storm force extended out 275 miles (445 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Ophelia will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Ophelia will move over the Gulf Stream where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the eastern U.S. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ophelia’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. However, the flow of air in the upper levels will also provide divergence aloft that will pump mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass will cause the surface pressure to decrease. The drier air in the southern and eastern parts of Tropical Storm Ophelia will inhibit the formation of thunderstorms in those regions. Tropical Storm Ophelia could intensify during the next 12 hours, while it is over the Gulf Stream.

Tropical Storm Ophelia will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ophelia toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Ophelia will approach the coast of North Carolina on Friday night. Ophelia will bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to eastern North Carolina, eastern Virginia, southeastern Maryland and southern Delaware. NOAA buoy 41025 at Diamond Shoals, North Carolina reported a sustained wind speed of 47 m.p.h. (76 km/h) and a wind gust of 60 m.p.h. (97 km/h). A NOAA C-MAN station at Cape Lookout, North Carolina reported a sustained wind speed of 45 m.p.h. (72 km/h) and a wind gust of 53 m.p.h. (83 km/h)

Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches were in effect for eastern North Carolina, eastern Virginia, Maryland and Delaware.

Easterly winds in the northern side of Tropical Storm Ophelia will blow water toward the coast. A storm surge of up to 6 feet (1.8 meters) could occur in some locations. A Storm Surge Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia. The Storm Surge Warning included Albemarle Sound, Pamlico Sound, the Pamlico River and the Neuse River. A Storm Surge Warning was in effect for Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach, Virginia. Large waves will also cause significant beach erosion.

Low Pressure System Prompts Tropical Storm Warnings for Mid-Atlantic Coast

A low pressure system formed over the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of the southeast U.S. on Thursday morning. The U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the low pressure system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen and issued Tropical Storm Warnings for portions of the Mid-Atlantic coast. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen was located at latitude 29.0°N and longitude 75.9°W which put it about 430 miles (690 km) south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1012 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Fear, North Carolina to Fenwick Island, Delaware. The Tropical Storm Warning included Albemarle Sound and Pamlico Sound. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point.

A low pressure system formed over the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of the southeast U.S. on Thursday morning. The low pressure system formed as an extratropical cyclone. There was a large counterclockwise circulation around the low pressure system. There was not a well formed, distinct low level center of the circulation. Thunderstorms were occurring in a band that wrapped around the eastern and northern side of the low pressure systems. Fragmented bands in other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen will move through an environment favorable for intensification of an extratropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the eastern U.S. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow across the top of Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. However, the flow of air in the upper levels will also provide divergence aloft that will pump mass away from the surface low pressure system. The removal of mass will cause the surface pressure to decrease. Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours. The low pressure system could make a transition to a tropical storm later on Friday when it moves over the warmer water in the Gulf Stream.

The upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Potential Tropical Cyclone will approach the coast of North Carolina on Friday night. The low pressure system will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to eastern North Carolina, eastern Virginia, southeastern Maryland and southern Delaware. The gusty winds will blow water toward the coast. A storm surge of up to 5 feet (1.5 meters) could occur in some locations. Large waves will cause significant beach erosion. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Nigel was speeding toward the northeast as it passed southeast of Newfoundland. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Nigel was located at latitude 42.2°N and longitude 45.0°W which put it about 505 miles (815 km) southeast of Cape Race,, Newfoundland. Nigel was moving toward the northeast at 30 m.p.h. (48 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.