Tropical Storm Fay Weakens

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Tropical Storm Fay weakened on Monday as it moved over the North Atlantic Ocean southwest of the Azores.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located at latitude 33.1°N and longitude 32.2°W which put the center about 445 miles (720 km) southwest of the Azores.  Fay was moving toward the south-southwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

An upper level trough that is west of Portugal was producing northwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Tropical Storm Fay.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear caused Fay to weaken on Monday.

The strong northwesterly winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere blew the tops off of many of the thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Fay.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the eastern side of Fay’s circulation.  Bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Fay consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Fay generated less upper level divergence that pumped less mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Monday.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Fay was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Fay’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Fay will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fay will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  However, the upper level trough that is west of Portugal will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Fay is likely to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours because of the strong vertical wind shear.

Tropical Storm Fay will move around the southeastern side of a high pressure system that is over the North Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fay to the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Fay will move farther away from the Azores.

Polo Rapidly Intensifies to a Hurricane

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Former Tropical Storm Polo rapidly intensified to a hurricane on Monday as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Polo was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 103.0°W which put the center about 270 miles (435 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Polo was moving toward the east at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo, Mexico.

Former Tropical Storm Polo rapidly intensified to a hurricane on Monday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Polo’s circulation.  A small circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) formed at the center of Hurricane Polo.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Polo’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Polo generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Polo was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Polo’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Hurricane Polo.

Hurricane Polo will move through an environment that will be very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Polo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is south of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Polo is likely to intensify rapidly to a major hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Polo could strengthen to a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale later this week.

Hurricane Polo will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over the equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Polo slowly toward the east during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Polo will move a little closer to the coast of southwest Mexico.  A bigger and strong high pressure system is forecast to develop over Mexico on Tuesday.  The bigger and strong high pressure system will steer Hurricane Polo toward the northwest during the middle of this week.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Odalys continued to spin far to the southwest of Baja California.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was located at latitude 13.9°N and longitude 129.3°W which put the center about 1415 miles (2275 km) west-southwest of the the southern tip of Baja California.  Odalys was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Typhoon Dujuan Passes Southeast of Honshu

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Typhoon Dujuan passed southeast of Honshu on Monday morning.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Dujuan was located at latitude 34.3°N and longitude 140.8°E which put the center about 110 miles (175 km) south of Tokyo, Japan.  Dujuan was moving toward the northeast at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 971 mb.

Typhoon Dujuan strengthened a little more on Monday morning as it passed southeast of Honshu.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Dujuan’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Dujuan generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the eastern side of Typhoon Dujuan.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the eastern side of Dujuan’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 210 miles (335 km) from the center of Typhoon Dujuan.

Typhoon Dujuan will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.   Dujuan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the eastern part of an upper level trough that is north of Japan.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dujuan’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Typhoon Dujuan could intensify a little more during the next 12 hours.  Dujuan will move over cooler Sea Surface Temperatures later on Monday.  Typhoon Dujuan will also into a region where the upper level winds are stronger on Tuesday.  The cooler Sea Surface Temperatures and stronger upper level winds will cause Typhoon Dujuan to weaken.  The cooler water and stronger upper level winds will also cause Dujuan to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough that is north of Japan will steer Typhoon Dujuan toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Dujuan will move away from Honshu.

Tropical Storm Polo Forms South of Mexico

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Tropical Storm Polo formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Sunday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Polo was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 104.6°W which put the center about 270 miles (435 km) south of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Polo was moving toward the east-northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico strengthened on Sunday evening and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Polo.

More thunderstorms were developing near the center of Tropical Storm Polo on Sunday evening.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Polo’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Tropical Storm Polo began to generate upper level divergence that started to pump mass away from the tropical storm.

The strongest winds were occurring in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Polo.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the eastern half of Polo’s circulation.  The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Polo were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Polo will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Polo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is south of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Polo will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Polo could intensify rapidly after an inner core forms.

Tropical Storm Polo will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over the equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Polo slowly toward the east during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Polo will move a little closer to the coast of southwest Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Odalys was gradually strengthening far to the southwest of Baja California.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was located at latitude 13.1°N and longitude 127.7°W which put the center about 1350 miles (2170 km) west-southwest of the the southern tip of Baja California.  Odalys was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Typhoon Dujuan South of Honshu

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The center of Typhoon Dujuan was south of Honshu on Sunday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Dujuan was located at latitude 33.0°N and longitude 139.5°E which put the center about 210 miles (335 km) south-southwest of Tokyo, Japan.  Dujuan was moving toward the northeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Dujuan strengthened back to a typhoon as it moved south of Honshu on Sunday evening.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Typhoon Dujuan.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Dujuan’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Dujuan generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the eastern side of Typhoon Dujuan.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) in the eastern side of Dujuan’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) from the center of Typhoon Dujuan.

Typhoon Dujuan will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dujuan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level trough that is north of Japan.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dujuan’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Typhoon Dujuan could intensify on Monday.  Dujuan will move into a region where the upper level winds are stronger on Tuesday.  The stronger upper level winds will cause Typhoon Dujuan to start to weaken.  The stronger upper level winds will also cause Dujuan to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough that is north of Japan will steer Tropical Storm Dujuan toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Dujuan will pass just south of Tokyo in a few hours.

Tropical Storm Dujuan will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Tokyo and eastern Honshu.  Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Fay Strengthens

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Tropical Storm Fay strengthened on Sunday afternoon as it moved over the North Atlantic Ocean southwest of the Azores.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located at latitude 34.4°N and longitude 32.7°W which put the center about 405 miles (650 km) southwest of the Azores.  Fay was moving toward the north-northeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Storm Fay strengthened on Sunday afternoon.  Thunderstorms were occurring near the center of Fay’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Fay.  Storms near the center of Fay generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Fay was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Fay’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Fay will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Fay will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move north of a subtropical jet stream.  Fay will stay south of the polar front jet stream.  The upper level winds are weaker between the two jet streams. There will be some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Fay could continue to intensify during the next 12 hours.  Fay could strengthen to a hurricane.  The upper level winds are forecast to be stronger on Monday, which will cause Fay to start to weaken.

The steering currents are weak between the subtropical jet stream and the polar front jet stream.  Tropical Storm Fay is likely to meander during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Fay will remain far to the southwest of the Azores.

Tropical Storm Odalys Forms Southwest of Baja California

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Tropical Storm Odalys formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Saturday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was located at latitude 11.4°N and longitude 124.5°W which put the center about 1245 miles (2005 km) southwest of the the southern tip of Baja California.  Odalys was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California strengthened on Saturday night and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Odalys.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Storm Odalys on Saturday night.  Thunderstorms were also developing in bands in the southern and western parts of Odalys’ circulation.  Bands in the northern and eastern parts of Tropical Storm Odlays consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Odalys started to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and west of the tropical storm.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Tropical Storm Odalys.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) in the northern side of Odalys’ circulation.  The winds in the southern half of Tropical Storm Odalys were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Odalys will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Odalys will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level low that is southwest of Baja California.  The upper level low will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Odalys’ circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification but the wind shear will probably not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Odalys is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.  Odalys could strengthen to a hurricane early next week.

Tropical Storm Odalys will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is west of Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Odalys toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Odalys will remain far to the southwest of Baja California.

Tropical Storm Fay Develops Southwest of the Azores

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Tropical Storm Fay developed southwest of the Azores on Saturday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located at latitude 33.7°N and longitude 33.1°W which put the center about 450 miles (730 km) southwest of the Azores.  Fay was moving toward the north-northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Former Tropical Depression Six strengthened on Saturday night and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Fay.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of Tropical Storm Fay on Saturday night.  More thunderstorms also formed in bands revolving around the center of Fay’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Fay generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Fay was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Fay’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Fay will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Fay will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move north of a subtropical jet stream.  Fay will stay south of the polar front jet stream.  The upper level winds are weaker between the two jet streams. There will be some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Fay will intensify during the next 12 hours.  Fay could rapidly intensify to a hurricane.  The upper level winds are forecast to be stronger on Monday, which will cause Fay to start to weaken.

The steering currents are weak between the subtropical jet stream and the polar front jet stream.  Tropical Storm Fay is likely to meander during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Fay will remain far to the southwest of the Azores.

Tropical Storm Dujuan Moves Toward Honshu

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Tropical Storm Dujuan moved toward Honshu on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Dujuan was located at latitude 29.1°N and longitude 137.5°E which put the center about 475 miles (760 km) south-southwest of Tokyo, Japan.  Dujuan was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Former Typhoon Dujuan weakened slightly on Saturday.  The circulation around Dujuan pulled some drier air into the eastern side of the tropical storm.  Some of the thunderstorms in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Dujuan weakened.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the other parts of Dujuan’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Dujuan generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure did not change much on Saturday.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Dujuan was large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 230 miles (370 km) from the center of Dujuan’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Dujuan will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dujuan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level trough that is north of Japan.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dujuan’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Dujuan could intensify a little on Sunday.

The upper level trough that is north of Japan will steer Tropical Storm Dujuan toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Dujuan will pass just south of Tokyo in a little over 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Dujuan will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Tokyo and eastern Honshu.  Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.

Tropical Depression Forms Southwest of the Azores

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A tropical depression formed over the North Atlantic Ocean southwest of the Azores on Saturday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Six was located at latitude 32.6°N and longitude 33.6°W which put the center about 525 miles (845 km) southwest of the Azores.  The tropical depression was moving toward the north at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

A low pressure system over the North Atlantic Ocean southwest of the Azores strengthened on Saturday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Six.

The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Depression Six was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern side of the tropical depression.  Bands in the southern side of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Depression Six will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move north of a subtropical jet stream.  The tropical depression will stay south of the polar front jet stream.  The upper level winds are weaker between the two jet streams.  There will be some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Depression Six could intensify to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

The steering currents are weak between the subtropical jet stream and the polar front jet stream.  Tropical Depression Six is likely to meander during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Six will remain far to the southwest of the Azores.