Hurricane Isaias Intensifies to Cat. 2

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Hurricane Isaias intensified to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Thursday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Isaias was located at latitude 24.4°N and longitude 89.3°W which put the center about 325 miles (525 km) south of the Mouth of the Mississippi River.  Isaias was moving toward the northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Ocean Springs, Mississippi to the Bay County/ Gulf County line in Florida.  The Hurricane Warning includes Mobile, Alabama and Pensacola, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Jefferson Parish/Plaquemines Parish line in Louisiana to Ocean Springs, Mississippi.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Bay County/Gulf County Line to Aucilla River, Florida.

Hurricane Isaias intensified to Cat. 2 on the Saffir- Simpson Scale on Thursday afternoon.

The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Isaias’ circulation.  A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) formed at the center of Hurricane Isaias.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Isaias’ circulation.  Storms near the center of Isaias generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds in Hurricane Isaias became more symmetrical on Thursday afternoon.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Isaias’ circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of Hurricane Isaias.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Isaias is 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 8.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 25.1.  Hurricane Isaias is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.

Hurricane Isaias will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours.  Isaias will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough that is over the South Central U.S.  The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Isaias’ circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Hurricane Isaias is likely to intensify during the next 18 hours.  Isaias could strengthen to a major hurricane.

Hurricane Isaias will move around the southeastern part of the upper level trough that is over the South Central U.S.   The upper level trough will steer Isaias toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Isaias will reach the northern Gulf Coast on Friday night.

Hurricane Isaias will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the northern Gulf Coast.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  Isaias will be capable of causing serious damage.  Widespread electricity outages are likely.

Flood Watches are in effect for parts of southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and Northwest Florida.

Isaias could cause a storm surge of up to 12 feet (3.6 meters) along portions of the northern Gulf Coast.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Suwannee River, Florida.

Isaias Strengthens to a Hurricane

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Former Tropical Storm Isaias strengthened to a hurricane as it moved over the central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Isaias was located at latitude 23.7°N and longitude 90.6°W which put the center about 385 miles (620 km) south-southwest of the Mouth of the Mississippi River.  Isaias was moving toward the east-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Ocean Springs, Mississippi to the Bay County/ Gulf County line in Florida.  The Hurricane Warning includes Mobile, Alabama and Pensacola, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Jefferson Parish/Plaquemines Parish line in Louisiana to Ocean Springs, Mississippi.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Bay County/Gulf County Line to Aucilla River, Florida.

Former Tropical Storm Isaias strengthened to a hurricane on Wednesday night.

The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western and southern sides of the center of Hurricane Isaias.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Isaias’ circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Isaias’ circulation.  Storms near the center of Isaias generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the rainband that wrapped around the western side of the center of Hurricane Isaias.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) in the western side of Isaias’ circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Hurricane Isaias.

Hurricane Isaias will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Isaias will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough that is over the South Central U.S.  The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Isaias’ circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Hurricane Isaias will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Isaias will move around the southeastern part of the upper level trough that is over the South Central U.S.   The upper level trough will steer Isaias toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Isaias will reach the northern Gulf Coast on Friday night.

Hurricane Isaias will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the northern Gulf Coast.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for parts of southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and Northwest Florida.

Isaias could cause a storm surge of up to 12 feet (3.6 meters) along portions of the northern Gulf Coast.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Steinhatchee River, Florida.

 

 

Hurricane Warning issued for Northern Gulf Coast

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A Hurricane Warning was issued for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday night because of the threat posed by Tropical Storm Isaias.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located at latitude 22.9°N and longitude 91.9°W which put the center about 460 miles (745 km) south-southwest of the Mouth of the Mississippi River.  Isaias was moving toward the east-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Ocean Springs, Mississippi to the Bay County/ Gulf County line in Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Jefferson Parish/Plaquemines Parish line in Louisiana to Ocean Springs, Mississippi.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Bay County/Gulf County Line to Aucilla River, Florida.

Tropical Storm Isaias continued to intensify on Wednesday evening.  Isaias was on the threshold of becoming a hurricane.

Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Isaias’ circulation.  Storms near the center of Isaias generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Isaias was fairly symmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Isaias’ circulation.

Tropical Storm Isaias will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Isaias will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Isaias will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Isaias could intensify rapidly at times.  Tropical Storm Isaias will strengthen to a hurricane by Thursday morning.

Tropical Storm Isaias will move around the southeastern part of an upper level trough that is over the Southern Plains.  The upper level trough will steer Isaias toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Isaias will reach the northern Gulf Coast on Friday night.

Tropical Storm Isaias will be a hurricane when it reaches the northern Gulf Coast.  Isaias could be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast.  Isaias will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the northern Gulf Coast.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Isaias could cause a storm surge of up to 12 feet (3.6 meters) along portions of the northern Gulf Coast.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Steinhatchee River, Florida.

Tropical Storm Simon Forms South of Mexico

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Tropical Storm Simon formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Simon was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 101.6°W which put the center about 175 miles (285 km) south-southeast of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico.  Simon was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico strengthened on Wednesday and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Simon.

Tropical Storm Simon exhibited better organization on Wednesday afternoon.  More thunderstorms were forming near the center of Simon’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also started to develop in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Simon.  Storms near the center of Simon began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass cause the surface pressure to start to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northeastern part of Tropical Storm Simon.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Simon’s circulation.  The winds in the other parts of Tropical Storm Simon were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Simon will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Simon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that is over Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Simon’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Simon will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Simon will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Simon toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  Simon will start to move toward the north on Friday when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Simon could approach the west coast of Mexico on Saturday.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Rachel was still spinning west of Baja California.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Rachel was located at latitude 21.2°N and longitude 122.3°W which put the center about 800 miles (1290 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Rachel was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Hurricane Watch Issued for Northern Gulf Coast

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A Hurricane Watch was issued for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday because of the threat posed by Tropical Storm Isaias.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located at latitude 22.6°N and longitude 93.4°W which put the center about 520 miles (840 km) south-southwest of the Mouth of the Mississippi River.  Isaias was moving toward the east-northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi to Indian Pass, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Jefferson Parish/Plaquemines Parish line in Louisiana to Bay St. Louis, Mississippi.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Aucilla River, Florida.

Tropical Storm Isaias was strengthening on Wednesday afternoon.

New thunderstorms continued to develop near the center of Tropical Storm Isaias.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands that were revolving around the center of Isaias’ circulation.  Storms near the center of Isaias generated more upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Isaias was becoming more symmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Isaias’ circulation.

Tropical Storm Isaias will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Isaias will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Isaias will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Isaias could intensify rapidly.  Tropical Storm Isaias could strengthen to a hurricane by Thursday morning.

An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. and the Gulf of Mexico will steer Tropical Storm Isaias toward the east-northeast during the next 24 hours.  A different upper level trough approaching from the Southern Plains west will start to steer Isaias toward the north on Thursday.  Tropical Storm Isaias could reach the northern Gulf Coast by Friday night.

Tropical Storm Isaias is likely to be a hurricane when it reaches the northern Gulf Coast.  Isaias could be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast.  Isaias will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the northern Gulf Coast.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Isaias could cause a storm surge of up to 12 feet (3.6 meters) along portions of the northern Gulf Coast.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Yankeetown, Florida.

Depression Strengthens to Tropical Storm Isaias

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Former Tropical Depression Nine strengthened to Tropical Storm Isaias over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico early on Wednesday.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located at latitude 22.0°N and longitude 94.1°W which put the center about 285 miles (460 km) west of Progreso, Mexico.  Isaias was moving toward the east-northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Former Tropical Depression Nine strengthened to Tropical Storm Isaias early on Wednesday.

More thunderstorms were developing near the center of Tropical Storm Isaias.  More thunderstorms were also occurring in bands that were revolving around the center of Isaias’ circulation.  Storms near the center of Isaias generated more upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Tropical Storm Isaias.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles in the northern half of Isaias’ circulation.  The winds in the southern half of Tropical Storm Isaias were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Isaias will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Isaias will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Gulf of Mexico. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Isaias will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Isaias could intensify rapidly.  Tropical Storm Isaias could strengthen to a hurricane by Wednesday night.

An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. and the Gulf of Mexico will steer Tropical Storm Isaias toward the east-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Isaias will move closer to the northwestern part of the Yucatan Peninsula.  A different upper level trough approaching from the Southern Plains west will start to steer Isaias toward the north on Wednesday night.  Tropical Storm Isaias could reach the northern Gulf Coast by Friday night.

Tropical Storm Isaias is likely to be a hurricane when it reaches the northern Gulf Coast.  Isaias could be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast.

A Hurricane Watch will likely be issued for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast later today.

Typhoon Nolo Passes North of Wake Island

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Typhoon Nolo passed north of Wake Island on Tuesday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Nolo was located at latitude 25.5°N and longitude 162.9°E which put the center about 445 miles (720 km) north of Wake Island.  Nolo was moving toward the west at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

Typhoon Nolo weakened on Tuesday.  The eye was no longer visible at the center of Nolo’s circulation.  The distribution of thunderstorms in Typhoon Nolo became more asymmetrical on Tuesday.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southern and eastern parts of Nolo’s circulation.  Bands in the northern and western parts of Typhoon Nolo consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Nolo generated less upper level divergence that pumped less mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Tuesday.

The circulation around Typhoon Nolo was still large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Nolo’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 205 miles (335 km) from the center of Typhoon Nolo.

Typhoon Nolo will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Nolo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Nolo’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Nolo will continue to weaken gradually on Wednesday because of the moderate vertical wind shear.

Typhoon Nolo will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Nolo toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Nolo will move northwest of Wake Island on Wednesday.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Typhoon Choi-wan was making a transition to a strong extratropical cyclone east of Japan and Tropical Storm Koguma was gradually intensifying south of Wake Island.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Choi-wan was located at latitude 37.9°N and longitude 151.3°E which put the center about 530 miles (855 km) east-southeast of Misawa, Japan.  Choi-wan was moving toward the northeast at 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Koguma was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 163.6°E which put the center about 325 miles (525 km) south-southwest of Wake Island.  Koguma was moving toward the northwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Depression Forms over Southwest Gulf of Mexico

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Tropical Depression Nine formed over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located at latitude 22.1°N and longitude 95.6°W which put the center about 380 miles (615 km) west of Progreso, Mexico.  The tropical depression was moving toward the east at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation formed within a cluster of thunderstorms that was over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Nine.

New thunderstorms were forming near the center of Tropical Depression Nine.  Thunderstorms were also developing in bands that were revolving around the center of the tropical depression.  Storms near the center of the depression started to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to start to decrease.

Tropical Depression Nine will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that is over the Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical depression.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent that intensification.  Tropical Depression Nine will intensify to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.  It could strengthen to a hurricane later this week.

An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. and the Gulf of Mexico will steer Tropical Depression Nine toward the east during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Nine will move closer to the northwestern part of the Yucatan Peninsula.  A different upper level trough approaching from the west will start to steer the tropical depression toward the north later this week.

Typhoon Nolo Moves Northeast of Wake Island

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Typhoon Nolo moved northeast of Wake Island on Monday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Nolo was located at latitude 25.7°N and longitude 172.0°E which put the center about 600 miles (970 km) northeast of Wake Island.  Nolo was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

Typhoon Nolo did not change much on Monday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) was at the center of Nolo’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Typhoon Nolo.  Storms near the center of Nolo generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure did not change much on Monday.

The distribution of wind speeds around Typhoon Nolo was fairly symmetrical.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Nolo’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 155 miles (250 km) from the center of Typhoon Nolo.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Nolo is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 16.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 38.2.  Typhoon Nolo is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Milton, when Milton hit Florida in 2024.

Typhoon Nolo will move through an environment that will be somewhat unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Nolo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Nolo’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Nolo is likely to weaken gradually on Tuesday because of the moderate vertical wind shear.

Typhoon Nolo will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Nolo toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Nolo will pass north of Wake Island on Tuesday.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Typhoon Choi-wan weakened gradually northeast of Iwo To and Tropical Storm Koguma strengthened slowly north of Kwajalein.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Choi-wan was located at latitude 30.8°N and longitude 146.3°E which put the center about 440 miles (710 km) northeast of Iwo To.  Choi-wan was moving toward the north at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 945 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Koguma was located at latitude 13.2°N and longitude 166.7°E which put the center about 295 miles (475 km) north of Kwajalein. Koguma was moving toward the northwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Hurricane Rachel Churns West

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Hurricane Rachel churned westward over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Monday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Rachel was located at latitude 20.4°N and longitude 117.9°W which put the center about 540 miles (870 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Rachel was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

A large circular eye with a diameter of 60 miles (96 km) was at the center of Hurricane Rachel.

The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern and southern part of Rachel’s circulation.  Bands in the western and northern parts of Hurricane Rachel consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Rachel still generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  However, the removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased slowly on Monday.

The distribution of wind speeds in Hurricane Rachel did not change much on Monday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Rachel’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Hurricane Rachel.

Hurricane Rachel will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rachel will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, Rachel will continue to move through a mass of drier air that is west of Baja California.  Hurricane Rachel is likely to continue to weaken gradually on Tuesday because of the effects of the drier air.

Hurricane Rachel will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Rachel toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Rachel will continue to move farther away from Baja California.