Tropical Cyclone Mitchell Strengthens Near Western Australia

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Tropical Cyclone Mitchell strengthened near the coast of Western Australia on Friday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell was located at latitude 18.7°S and longitude 119.4°E which put the center about 145 miles (235 km) north-northeast of Port Hedland, Australia.  Mitchell was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning that was in effect for the portion of the coast from De Grey to Mardie.  The Warning included Port Hedland, Karratha, and Dampier.

A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Onslow to Coral Bay.  The Watch included Exmouth.

A Tropical Low near the coast of Western Australia strengthened on Friday morning and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated it as Tropical Cyclone Mitchell.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Mitchell was strengthening on Friday morning.  New thunderstorms continued to develop near the center of Mitchell’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were also revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell.  Storms near the center of Mitchell generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Mitchell was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Mitchell’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Mitchell will then move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Mitchell will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Mitchell could intensify rapidly to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system that is over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Mitchell toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone will be north of Dampier in 24 hours.

The strongest winds in Tropical Cyclone Mitchell will remain north of the coast of Western Australia on Friday.  Bands in the southern half of Mitchell’s circulation could bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of Western Australia.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for the Gascoyne River, the Ashburton River, the Fortescue River, the Fitzroy River, and the Pilbara Coastal Rivers.

Tropical Low Prompts Warning for Western Australia

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The potential risk posed by a Tropical Low prompted the Australia Bureau of Meteorology to issue a Warning for a portion of the coast of Western Australia on Thursday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of a Tropical Low was located at latitude 17.9°S and longitude 121.5°E which put the center about 25 miles (40 km) west-northwest of Broome, Australia.  The Tropical Low was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Pardoo Roadhouse to Whim Creek.  The Warning included Port Hedland.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Watch for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Whim Creek to Exmouth Gulf.  The Watch included Karratha,Dampier, and Onslow.

A low pressure system strengthened on Thursday when it moved over the South Indian Ocean near Broome, Australia.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as a Tropical Low.  The U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center designated the system as Tropical Cyclone 20S.

The Tropical Low started to strengthen on Thursday as soon as it moved over the water in the South Indian Ocean.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of the Tropical Low.  Thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of circulation.  Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the Tropical Low.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to start to decrease.

The Tropical Low will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The Tropical Low will then move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The Tropical Low will intensify during the next 24 hours.  It could intensify rapidly to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

The Tropical Low will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system that is over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer the Tropical Low toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the Tropical Low will be north of Port Hedland in 24 hours.

The center of the Tropical Low is likely to stay north of the coast of Western Australia on Friday.  Bands in the southern half of the Tropical Low could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to portions of the coast.

Tropical Storm Penha Brings Wind and Rain to Southern Philippines

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Tropical Storm Penha brought wind and rain to the southern Philippines on Thursday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Penha was located at latitude 8.7°N and longitude 126.4°E which put the center about 20 miles (30 km) east of Lianga, Philippines.  Penha was moving toward the west-northwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

Tropical Storm Penha brought wind and rain to the southern Philippines on Thursday.  Bands in the western side of Penha’s circulation were dropping rain on northern Mindanao, Leyte, Samar, Bohol, Cebu, and Negros.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

The area of strongest winds in Tropical Storm Penha was relatively small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Penha’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Penha will move around the southern part of the high pressure system that is south of Japan.  The high pressure system will steer Penha toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Penha will move across northern Mindanao during the next few hours.  Penha will reach the Bohol Sea in 12 hours.  Tropical Storm Penha will be over the northern Sulu Sea in 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Penha will move into an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Tropical Storm Penha will weaken while the center moves over northern Mindanao.   Penha will then move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce strong southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Penha’s circulation.  The winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  In addition, Penha will move into a region of drier air by the time it reaches the northern part of the Sulu Sea.  The strong vertical wind shear and the drier air will cause Tropical Storm Penha to continue to weaken even when the center gets back of water.

 

Depression Strengthens to Tropical Storm Penha

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A tropical depression over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of Mindanao strengthened to Tropical Storm Penha on Wednesday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Penha was located at latitude 8.6°N and longitude 131.0°E which put the center about 330 miles (530 km) west of Tandag, Philippines.  Penha was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A tropical depression east of Mindanao strengthened on Wednesday morning and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Penha.

The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Penha was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern and western parts of Penha’s circulation.  Bands in the southern and eastern parts of Tropical Storm Penha consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Penha generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and west of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease slowly.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Penha was interacting with a large high pressure system that was south of Japan.  The interaction with the high pressure system was causing the distribution of wind speeds in Penha to be asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the northern side of Tropical Storm Penha.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the southern half of Penha’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Penha will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Penha will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Penha’s circulation.  The winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Penha could intensify slowly during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Penha will move around the southern part of the high pressure system that is south of Japan.  The high pressure system will steer Penha toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Penha will reach Mindanao in 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Penha will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Mindanao and the rest of the southern Philippines.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia Moves South of La Reunion

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Tropical Cyclone Fytia moved south of La Reunion on Tuesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia was located at latitude 23.7°S and longitude 55.0°E which put the center about 215 miles (350 km) south of St. Denis, La Reunion.  Fytia was moving toward the east at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia weakened on Tuesday as it continued to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone.  An upper level trough that was southeast of Madagascar produced strong northwesterly winds that blew across the top of Fytia’s circulation.  Those strong winds blew the tops off of many of the thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Fytia.  There were still some thunderstorms in bands in the southeastern part of Fytia’s circulation.  Bands in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone Fytia consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Fytia was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) in the southeastern quadrant of Fytia’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone Fytia.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Fytia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  However, the upper level trough southeast of Madagascar will continue to produce strong northwesterly winds that will across the top of Fytia’s circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Fytia to continue to weaken gradually as it makes a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough southeast of Madagascar will steer Tropical Cyclone Fytia toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move south of Mauritius on Wednesday.

Tropical Depression Forms East of the Philippines

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A tropical depression formed over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines on Tuesday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of the tropical depression was located at latitude 9.1°N and longitude 135.0°E which put the center about 125 miles (200 km) north of Palau.  The tropical depression was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines strengthened on Tuesday morning and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as a tropical depression.

The circulation around the tropical depression was gradually getting more organized.  More thunderstorms were developing in bands revolving around the center of the tropical depression.  Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

The tropical depression will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the depression’s circulation.  The winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  The tropical depression is likely to intensify to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

Th tropical depression will move around the southern part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the tropical depression will move toward the southern Philippines.

 

Tropical Cyclone Fytia Passes Southwest of La Reunion

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Tropical Cyclone Fytia was passing southwest of La Reunion on Monday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia was located at latitude 22.3°S and longitude 53.4°E which put the center about 180 miles (290 km) southwest of St. Denis, La Reunion.  Fytia was moving toward the south-southeast at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia exhibited signs of the beginning of a transition to an extratropical cyclone on Monday morning.  The distribution of thunderstorms in Fytia was becoming asymmetrical.  Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Fytia’s circulation.  Many of the bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Fytia consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Fytia still were generating upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of winds speeds in Tropical Cyclone Fytia was also more asymmetrical on Monday morning.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) in the southern half of Fytia’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the northern half of Tropical Cyclone Fytia.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move into an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Fytia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge that is over La Reunion and Mauritius.  The upper level ridge will produce strong northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fytia’s circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  The strong vertical wind shear will also cause Tropical Cyclone Fytia to make a gradual transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next several days.  Fytia is likely to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move around the southwestern side of a high pressure system that is over the Southwest Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fytia toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fytia will pass south of La Reunion and Mauritius during the middle part of this week.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia Moves East of Madagascar

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Tropical Cyclone Fytia moved to the east of Madagascar on Sunday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia was located at latitude 20.7°S and longitude 50.7°E which put the center about 145 miles (235 km) southeast of Toamasina, Madagascar.  Fytia was moving toward the southeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia started to intensify again after it moved over the Southwest Indian Ocean east of Madagascar on Sunday.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of Fytia’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also formed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia.  Storms near the center of Fytia generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and east of the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fytia was still small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Fytia’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fytia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge that is over La Reunion and Mauritius.  The upper level ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fytia’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Fytia will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move around the southwestern side of a high pressure system that is over the Southwest Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fytia toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fytia continue to move away from Madagascar.  Fytia will pass south of La Reunion and Mauritius later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia Brings Wind and Rain to Madagascar

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Tropical Cyclone Fytia was bringing wind and rain to Madagascar on Saturday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia was located at latitude 17.5°S and longitude 47.0°E which put the center about 140 miles (225 km) north-northwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar.  Fytia was moving toward the southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia made landfall on the west coast of Madagascar west of Soalala on Friday night.  Fytia was the equivalent of a major hurricane at the time of landfall.  It then started to weaken as it moved southeast across central Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia was the equivalent of a tropical storm on Saturday morning.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Fytia’s circulation.

An upper level trough over the Mozambique Channel will steer Tropical Cyclone Fytia toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  The center of Fytia’s circulation will pass between Antananarivo and Toamasina.  Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move over the Southwest Indian Ocean on Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to central Madagascar.   Heavy rain is very likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Widespread electricity outages are also likely.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

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Tropical Cyclone Fytia rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane before it hit the west coast of Madagascar on Friday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 45.2°E which put the center about 25 miles (40 km) west of Soalala, Madagascar.  Fytia was moving toward the east-southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia continued to intensify rapidly on Friday right up to the time it hit the west coast of Madagascar.  A small circular eye was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Fytia’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Fytia generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fytia was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Fytia’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Fytia was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HWISI) was 9.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 30.0 Tropical Cyclone Fytia was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fytia toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fytia will across central Madagascar on Saturday.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia made landfall on the west coast of Madagascar west of Soalala.  The center of Fytia’s circulation is likely to pass between Antananarivo and Toamasina on Saturday night.  Tropical Cyclone Fytia will weaken as it moves across Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of west central Madagascar and to central Madagascar.  Fytia could cause major damage in those areas.   Heavy rain is very likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Fytia could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of the west coast of Madagascar.