Tropical Storm Nuri Forms North of Yap

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Tropical Storm Nuri formed over the Western North Pacific Ocean north of Yap on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Nuri was located at latitude 11.63°N and longitude 138.4°E which put the center about 160 miles (260 km) north of Yap.  Nuri was moving toward the east at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean strengthened on Tuesday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Nuri.

Thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Storm Nuri on Tuesday.  Even so, the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Nuri was asymmetrical.  Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern half of Nuri’s circulation.  Bands in the southern half of Tropical Storm Nuri consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Nuri started to generate some upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and east of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Nuri will move through an environment that will be mostly unfavorable for intensification.  Nuri will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.   It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that is south of the Marianas.  The upper level ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Nuri’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  In addition, Tropical Storm Nuri formed just to the south of a large area of drier air that originated over eastern Asia.  The combination of moderate vertical wind shear and drier air is likely to prevent Tropical Storm Nuri from intensifying during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Nuri will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is south of the Marianas.  The high pressure system will steer Nuri toward the east-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Nuri will move toward the Marianas.

Tropical Storm Nuri cold bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Marianas later this week.

Tropical Cyclone 24P Forms over the Coral Sea

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Tropical Cyclone 24P formed over the Coral Sea on Tuesday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 24P was located at latitude 14.3°S and longitude 150.6°E which put the center about 380 miles (615 km) east-northeast of Cairns, Australia.  Tropical Cyclone 24P was moving toward the south-southeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Watch for the portion of the coast from Cooktown to Lucinda.  The Watch included Port Douglas, Cairns, Innisfail and Palm Island.

A low pressure system over the Coral Sea strengthened on Tuesday night and the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center designated the system as Tropical Cyclone 24P.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology was designating the system as Tropical Low 29U.

The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone 24P was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the tropical cyclone’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern side of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Tropical Cyclone 24P began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone 24P.

Tropical Cyclone 24P will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge that extended from the Coral Sea to over Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone 24P will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 24 P will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Coral Sea.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone 24P will approach the coast of Queensland near Cairns in two days.

Tropical Cyclone 24P will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of Queensland near Cairns.  Heavy rain could cause flooding in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for the parts of the Cape York Peninsula, the Central Coast, Capricornia, and Carpentaria catchments.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil Passes South of Fiji

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Tropical Cyclone Urmil passed south of Fiji on Saturday night.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Urmil was located at latitude 26.7°S and longitude 179.5°W which put the center about 525 miles (850 km) south of Siva, Fiji.  Urmil was moving toward the southeast at 28 m.p.h. (45 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil was making a transition to an extratropical cyclone on Sunday morning.  An upper level trough that was northwest of New Zealand was producing strong northwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Urmil’s circulation.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  The strong upper level winds were also blowing the top half of Urmil’s circulation to the southeast of the circulation in the lower levels of the atmosphere.

Bands near the center and in the northern and western parts of Tropical Cyclone Urmil consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Some thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southeastern part of Urmil’s circulation.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Urmil increased as Urmil made the transition to an extratropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 180 miles (290 km) from the center of Urmil’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Urmil will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C.  The upper level trough that was northwest of New Zealand will continue to produce strong northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Urmil’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  The strong wind shear will also Tropical Cyclone Urmil to complete a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough northwest of New Zealand will steer Tropical Cyclone Urmil toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Urmil will pass far to the south of Tonga.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil Moves Southeast of Vanuatu

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Tropical Cyclone Urmil moved southeast of Vanuatu on Saturday morning.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Urmil was located at latitude 21.2°S and longitude 172.5°E which put the center about 310 miles (500 km) southeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Urmil was moving toward the east-southeast at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it moved over the South Pacific Ocean southeast of Vanuatu on Saturday morning.  Even though Urmil strengthened, the distribution of thunderstorms became more asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern and eastern sides of Tropical Cyclone Urmil.  Bands in the northern and western sides of Urmil’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

An upper level trough that was south of New Caledonia was producing northwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Urmil.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Urmil.

The strongest winds were occurring north of the center of Tropical Cyclone Urmil.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the northern side of Urmil’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Urmil.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Urmil will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.   The upper level trough that was south of New Caledonia will continue to produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Urmil’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause moderate to strong vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Urmil could intensify a little, if the upper level winds do not get any stronger.  Urmil is more likely to start to weaken during the weekend because of the vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will also cause Tropical Cyclone Urmil to begin a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough south of New Caledonia will steer Tropical Cyclone Urmil toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Urmil will pass south of Fiji.

 

Tropical Cyclone Urmil Brings Wind and Rain to Southern Vanuatu

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Tropical Cyclone Urmil was bringing wind and rain to parts of southern Vanuatu on Friday morning.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Urmil was located at latitude 19.5°S and longitude 168.1°E which put the center about 120 miles (195 km) south of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Urmil was moving toward the southeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean near Vanuatu strengthened on Thursday night and the Fiji Meteorological Service designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Urmil.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil was intensifying rapidly on Friday morning.  Thunderstorms were forming near the center of Urmil’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also developing in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Urmil.  Storms near the center of Urmil generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and east of the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Urmil was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Urmil’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Urmil will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge that is west of Vanuatu.  The upper level ridge will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Urmil’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Urmil will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Urmil will strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon today.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is south of Fiji.  The high pressure system will steer Urmil toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Urmil will move away from southern Vanuatu later today.  Urmil will pass south of Fiji during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern Vanautu during the next few horus.  Strong winds and heavy rain will affect Erromango, Tanna, Aniwa, Futuna, and Aneityum.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio Continues to Weaken

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Tropical Cyclone Horacio continued to weaken as it moved over the South Indian Ocean on Wednesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio was located at latitude 30.9°S and longitude 68.1°E which put the center about 815 miles (1315 km) south-southeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Horacio was moving toward the south-southeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

An upper level trough that was southeast of Madagascar was producing strong northwesterly winds that were blowing across the top of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  The strong northwesterly winds were also blowing the top half of Horacio’s circulation to the southeast of the low level center of Horacio.  The strong winds blew the tops off of thunderstorms near the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.  Bands near the center and in the northwestern half of Horacio’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  There will some thunderstorms in the southeastern part of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.

The distribution of wind speeds near the surface in Tropical Cyclone Horacio were still relatively symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Horacio’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will continue to move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Horacio will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 23°C.  The upper level trough that is southeast of Madagascar will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Horacio will continue to weaken during the next 24 hours because of the colder water and the strong vertical wind shear.

Since strong vertical wind shear is blowing the top off of Tropical Cyclone Horacio, Horacio will be steered by weather systems in the lower atmosphere.  Horacio will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Horacio toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Horacio will continue to move farther away from Rodrigues.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio Weakens

Tropical Cyclone Horacio weakened on Tuesday as it moved over the South Indian Ocean.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio was located at latitude 25.6°S and longitude 65.2°E which put the center about 415 miles (665 km) south-southeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Horacio was moving toward the south-southeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio weakened on Tuesday.  An upper level trough that was southeast of Madagascar was producing northwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Horacio’s circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear caused Tropical Cyclone Horacio to weaken.

The eye was no longer visible on satellite images of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands revolving around the center of Horacio’s circulation.  However, those thunderstorms were not rising as high into the atmosphere.  Thunderstorms near the center of Horacio generated less upper level divergence.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Tuesday.

Even though Tropical Cyclone Horacio was weakening, the distribution of wind speeds was still fairly symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Horacio’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Horacio will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  The upper level trough that is southeast of Madagascar will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.   Tropical Cyclone Horacio will continue to weaken on Wednesday because of the moderate vertical wind shear.

The upper level trough that is southeast of Madagascar will steer Tropical Cyclone Horacio toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Horacio will continue to move farther away from Rodrigues.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Horacio rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5  hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it moved over the South Indian Ocean southeast of Rodrigues on Monday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio was located at latitude 21.2°S and longitude 65.0°E which put the center about 145 miles (235 km) southeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Horacio was moving toward the southwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) ‘and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (3150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 920 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on Sunday night.  A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Horacio’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Horacio generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Horacio increased as Horacio rapidly intensified.   Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Horacio’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Horacio was 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 51.7. Tropical Cyclone Horacio was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Michael when Michael hit Northwest Florida in 2018.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move through an environment that will become less favorable for an intense tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Horacio will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the eastern part of an upper level trough that is southeast of Madagascar.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds are that will blow toward the top of Horacio’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the will  vertical wind shear to increase.  Tropical Cyclone Horacio will start to weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Horacio toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Horacio will continue to move farther away from Rodrigues.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Horacio rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane as it moved over the South Indian Ocean east of Rodrigues on Sunday night.  At 7:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio was located at latitude 19.8°S and longitude 65.8°E which put the center about 160 miles (260 km) east of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Horacio was moving toward the southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) ‘and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 948 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Sunday night.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Horacio’s circulation.  A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Horacio’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Horacio generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Horacio was relatively symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Horacio’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Horacio was 23.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 36.8.  Tropical Cyclone Horacio was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Horacio will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Horacio will intensify during the next 24 hours. Horacio could continue to intensify rapidly during the next few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Horacio toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Horacio will start to move farther away from Rodrigues.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio Moves Toward Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Horacio moved over the South Indian Ocean toward Rodrigues on Sunday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio was located at latitude 18.1°S and longitude 67.8°E which put the center about 320 miles (515 km) east-northeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Horacio was moving toward the west-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio strengthened on Sunday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern side of the center of Horatio’s circulation.  More thunderstorms formed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.  Storms near the center of Horacio generated upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Horacio became more symmetrical when Horacio strengthened on Sunday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Horacio’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Horacio will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will continue to produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Horacio’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Horacio will intensify during the next 24 hours. Horacio could intensify rapidly at times.  Tropical Cyclone Horacio is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon by Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Horacio toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Horacio will pass east of Rodrigues in 24 hours.