Tropical Storm Paine Spins Southwest of Baja California

Tropical Storm Paine was spinning over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Tuesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Paine was located at latitude 18.1°N and longitude 114.0°W which put it about 425 miles (685 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Paine was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Paine seemed to be starting to weaken on Tuesday night. Many of the thunderstorms in Paine had dissipated. The bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Paine consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Paine appeared to be moving into a mass of drier air on Tuesday night. The drier air caused thunderstorms in Paine to collapse. Tropical Storm Paine will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next several days. Paine will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, an upper level trough west of Baja California will produce southwestern winds that will blow toward the top of Paine’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. A combination of drier air and moderate vertical wind shear is likely to cause Tropical Storm Paine to weaken steadily during the next several days.

Tropical Storm Paine will move south of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Paine toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Paine will move farther away from Baja California.

Tropical Depression Twelve Forms West of Cabo Verde Islands

Tropical Depression Twelve formed over the eastern Atlantic Ocean west of the Cabo Verde Islands on Tuesday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Twelve was located at latitude 14.9°N and longitude 30.5°W which put it about 440 miles (705 km) west of the Cabo Verde Islands. The tropical depression was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation formed within a tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic Ocean west of the Cabo Verde Islands on Tuesday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Twelve. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern and eastern sides of the center of the tropical depression. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Twelve will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. Tropical Depression Twelve will move between an upper level ridge over West Africa and an upper level trough northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. The flows in the ridge and trough will interact to produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical depression’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Depression Twelve could intensify to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours if the upper level winds do not get any stronger.

Tropical Depression Twelve will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over West Africa. The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Twelve will move farther away from the Cabo Verde Islands.

Tropical Storm Paine Forms South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Paine formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Monday afternoon. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Paine was located at latitude 16.5°N and longitude 112.3°W which put it about 470 miles (755 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Paine was moving toward the north-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California strengthened on Monday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Paine. The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Storm Paine was asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Paine’s circulation. Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm. Paine was a small tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Paine will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Paine will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Paine’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Paine could get a little stronger on Tuesday unless the upper level winds get stronger.

Tropical Storm Paine will move around the southwestern part of an high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Paine toward the northwest. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Pain will remain far to the south of Baja California.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Orlene was dissipating over western Mexico. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Orlene was located at latitude 24.0°N and longitude 105.0°W which put it about 105 miles (165 km) east-northeast of Mazatlan, Mexico. Orlene was moving toward the northeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Hurricane Orlene Makes Landfall Southeast of Mazatlan

Hurricane Orlene made landfall on the west coast of Mexico southeast of Mazatlan on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Orlene was located at latitude 22.9°N and longitude 105.7°W which put it about 50 miles (80 km) east-southeast of Mazatlan, Mexico. Orlene was moving toward the north-northeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from San Blas to Mazatlan, Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Punta Mita to San Blas and from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya, Mexico.

Hurricane Orlene made landfall on the west coast of Mexico southeast of Mazatlan near Teacapan on Monday morning. Orlene was a small hurricane at the time of landfall. Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Orlene’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Orlene will weaken quickly as it moves inland. An upper level trough over northwestern Mexico will produce strong southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Orlene’s circulation. Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear coupled with moving over land will cause Hurricane Orlene to weaken quickly.

Hurricane Orlene will bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to northern Nayarit and southern Sinaloa before it dissipates. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Orlene Brings Wind and Rain to Las Islas Marias

Hurricane Orlene brought wind and rain to Las Islas Marias, Mexico on Sunday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Orlene was located at latitude 21.4°N and longitude 106.5°W which put it about 10 miles (15 km) southwest of Las Islas Marias, Mexico. Orlene was moving toward the north-northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Las Islas Marias. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from San Blas to Mazatlan, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to San Blas, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to San Blas, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Playa Perula, Mexico.

Hurricane Orlene weakened gradually on Sunday afternoon after it rapidly intensified to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale earlier in the day. A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was still present at the center of Hurricane Orlene. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around core of Orlene’s circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Orlene was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Orlene. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 6.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 24.6. Hurricane Orlene was capable of causing localized serious damage.

Hurricane Orlene will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Orlene will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. However, an upper level trough over northwestern Mexico will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Orlene’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Stronger vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Orlene to continue to weaken during Monday.

Hurricane Orlene will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico. The upper level trough over northwestern Mexico will steer Hurricane Orlene toward the north-northeast during Sunday night and Monday. Orlene will bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Las Islas Marias. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Hurricane Orlene could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) in parts of Las Islas Marias. Orlene could cause serious damage in Las Islas Marias. On its anticipated track Hurricane Orlene is likely to make landfall on the west coast of Mexico between San Blas and Mazatlan on Monday afternoon. Orlene will bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the coast. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in parts of Nayarit and southern Sinaloa. Hurricane Orlene could produce storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast.

Hurricane Orlene Rapidly Intensifies to Cat. 4

Hurricane Orlene rapidly intensified to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Saturday night. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Orlene was located at latitude 19.3°N and longitude 106.8°W which put it about 105 miles (165 km) southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. Orlene was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Las Islas Marias. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from San Blas to Mazatlan, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to San Blas, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to San Blas, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Playa Perula, Mexico.

Hurricane Orlene rapidly intensified to Category 4 during Saturday night. A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Hurricane Orlene. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around core of Orlene’s circulation. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Orlene was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Orlene. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 5.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 30.4. Hurricane Orlene was capable of causing localized severe damage.

Hurricane Orlene will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Orlene will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. Orlene will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Orlene could intensify during the next few hours. An upper level trough over northwestern Mexico will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Orlene’s circulation later on Sunday. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Hurricane Orlene is likely to weaken when the wind shear increases.

Hurricane Orlene will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Orlene toward the north during the next 12 hours. The upper level trough over northwestern Mexico will steer Hurricane Orlene toward the north-northeast on Sunday night and Monday. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Orlene will hit Las Islas Marias early on Monday morning. Orlene will bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Las Islas Marias. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some location. Hurricane Orlene could cuase major damage in Las Islas Marias. Orlene is likely to make landfall on the west coast of Mexico on Monday afternoon.

Hurricane Orlene Rapidly Intensifies to Cat. 2

Hurricane Orlene rapidly intensified to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Orlene was located at latitude 18.4°N and longitude 106.9°W which put it about 160 miles (255 km) south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. Orlene was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 966 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Las Islas Marias. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from San Blas to Mazatlan, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to San Blas, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to San Blas, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Playa Perula, Mexico.

Hurricane Orlene rapidly intensified on Saturday night. A circular eye with a diameter of 13 miles (20 km) was at the center of Hurricane Orlene. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around core of Orlene’s circulation. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Orlene was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Orlene. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 5.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 24.5. Hurricane Orlene was capable of causing localized serious damage.

Hurricane Orlene will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Orlene will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. Orlene will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Orlene is likely to intensify during the next 12 hours. Orlene could continue to intensify rapidly. Hurricane Orlene is likely to strengthen to a major hurrican by Sunday morning. An upper level trough over northwestern Mexico will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Orlene’s circulation later on Sunday. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Hurricane Orlene is likely to weaken when the wind shear increases.

Hurricane Orlene will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Orlene toward the north during the next 18 hours. The upper level trough over northwestern Mexico will steer Hurricane Orlene toward the north-northeast on Sunday night and Monday. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Orlene will hit Las Islas Marias early on Monday morning. Orlene is likely to make landfall on the west coast of Mexico on Monday afternoon.

Orlene Strengthens to a Hurricane Southwest of Mexico

Former Tropical Storm Orlene strengthened to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Saturday morning. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Orlene was located at latitude 17.8°N and longitude 107.0°W which put it about 200 miles (320 km) south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. Orlene was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Las Islas Marias. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from San Blas to Bahia Tempehuaya, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to San Blas, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Playa Perula, Mexico.

Former Tropical Storm Orlene strengthened to a hurricane on Saturday morning. A small eye formed at the center of Hurricane Orlene. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around core of Orlene’s circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Orlene was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Orlene. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Orlene will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Orlene will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. Orlene will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Orlene will intensify during the next 24 hours. Orlene could intensify rapidly now that an inner core with an eye and an eyewall has formed. An upper level trough over northwestern Mexico will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Orlene’s circulation later on Sunday. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Hurricane Orlene is likely to weaken when the wind shear increases.

Hurricane Orlene will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Orlene toward the north during the next 24 hours. The upper level trough over northwestern Mexico will steer Hurricane Orlene toward the north-northeast on Sunday night and Monday. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Orlene will hit Las Islas Marias early on Monday morning. Orlene is likely to make landfall on the west coast of Mexico on Monday afternoon.

Hurricane Ian Makes Landfall in South Carolina

Hurricane Ian made landfall in South Carolina on Friday afternoon. According to the National Hurricane Center the center of Hurricane Ian officially made landfall near Georgetown, South Carolina at 2:05 p.m. EDT on Friday. At 2:05 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Ian was located at latitude 33.3°N and longitude 79.2°W which put it about 55 miles (90 km) east-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina. Ian was moving toward the north at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Savannah River, Georgia to Cape Fear, North Carolina. The Hurricane Warning included Charleston, South Carolina. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Fear to Surf City, North Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina. The Tropical Storm Warning included Pamlico Sound. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound to Savannah River, Georgia.

The center of Hurricane Ian moved over the coast of South Carolina near Georgetown at 2:05 p.m. EDT on Friday. Ian was a Category 1 hurricane at the time of landfall. Winds to hurricane force extended out70 miles (110 km) from the center of Ian’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 275 miles (445 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 12.7. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 30.9. Hurricane Ian was capable of causing regional minor damage.

Hurricane Ian was bringing strong gusty winds to the coastal areas of South Carolina on Friday afternoon. The weather station at the Charleston airport (KCHS) reported a sustained wind speed of 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and a wind gust of 68 m.p.h. (101 m.p.h.). Heavy rain was also falling over Charleston and there were reports of flooded streets. Hurricane Ian was causing a storm surge east of Georgetown where the winds were blowing water toward the coast. A surge of 4 to 7 feet (1.2 to 2.1 meters) was possible in the part of the coast between Georgetown and Cape Fear, North Carolina. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Savannah River, Georgia to Cape Fear, North Carolina. Winds and waves were causing erosion along the coast.

Hurricane Ian will weaken gradually as it moves inland over eastern South Carolina. The center of Ian will move over south central South Carolina during Friday night. Ian will produce strong gusty winds over South Carolina and eastern and central North Carolina. Gusts to tropical storm force could affect the area around Charlotte, North Carolina. Minor wind damage and widespread electricity outages could occur in those areas. Gusty winds could push over trees in locations where the ground is saturated. Heavy rain was already falling over South Carolina, eastern North Carolina,, and southeastern Virginia. Flood Watches were in effect for much of South Carolina, North Carolina and southeastern Virginia. Southerly winds will push water toward the coast in places east of Georgetown, South Carolina. The storm surge is likely to continue in those places for a few more hours.

Hurricane Ian Approaches South Carolina

Hurricane Ian approached the coast of South Carolina on Friday morning. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Ian was located at latitude 31.4°N and longitude 79.1°W which put it about 105 miles (165 km) south-southeast of Charleston South Carolina. Ian was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Savannah River, Georgia to Cape Fear, North Carolina. The Hurricane Warning included Charleston, South Carolina. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Fear to Surf City, North Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina. The Tropical Storm Warning included Pamlico Sound. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound to Savannah River, Georgia.

Hurricane Ian did not have the typical structure of a tropical hurricane on Friday morning. Ian was in the middle of a transition to an extratropical cyclone. The circulation around Hurricane Ian was also interacting with a stationary front near the coast of the Carolinas. The result of these factors was that the strongest winds were occurring in the western side of Ian’s circulation. Winds to hurricane force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the western side of Hurricane Ian. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 480 miles (775 km) in the northeaster quadrant of Ian. Tropical storm force winds extended out 185 miles (300 km) in the other parts of Ian’s circulation. The interaction with the stationary front was also causing the heaviest rain to fall in the northern half of Hurricane Ian.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Ian is 12.7. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 20.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 33.3. Hurricane Ian is capable of causing widespread minor damage.

Hurricane Ian will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Ian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Ian’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Hurricane Ian could get a little stronger before it makes landfall in South Carolina. The vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Ian to continue its transformation to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough will steer Hurricane Ian toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the center Hurricane Ian could make landfall in South Carolina between Charleston and Myrtle Beach on Friday afternoon. Ian will be a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale when it reaches South Carolina. Ian will bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain. If Ian makes landfall east of Charleston, the the strongest winds will affect that city. Widespread minor wind damage and electricity outages could occur. Air revolving around the northern side of Ian’s circulation will interact with the stationary front near the coast to enhance the rising motion in that region. The enhanced rising motion could produce heavy rainfall near the stationary front. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches are in effect for parts of South Carolina and North Carolina. Southeasterly winds blowing around the northeastern side of Hurricane Ian will blow water toward the coast. A storm surge of 4 to 7 feet (1.2 to 2.0 meters) could occur. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Savannah River, Georgia to Cape Fear, North Carolina. Serious coastal erosion is likely.