Disturbance Drops Rain on Southeast U.S.

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A disturbance designated as Invest 90L dropped rain over the southeast U.S. on Monday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of the disturbance was located near latitude 32.7°N and longitude 86.7°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) north-northwest of Montgomery, Alabama. The disturbance was moving toward the north-northeast at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1011 mb.

A disturbance that formed over the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend moved quickly toward the north-northeast and it was located over the southeast U.S. on Monday morning. The center of the disturbance made landfall on the northern Gulf Coast on Sunday night near Pensacola, Florida. The disturbance was dropping locally heavy rain over parts of Alabama and western Georgia on Monday morning. The disturbance will move quickly toward the north-northeast and it will merge with a cold front over the southeastern U.S. Locally heavy rain will spread over eastern Tennessee, western South Carolina, western North Carolina, eastern Kentucky, western Virginia and West Virginia. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Disturbance Moves Toward Gulf Coast

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A disturbance generated by a cluster of thunderstorms moved toward the Gulf Coast on Sunday afternoon. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of the disturbance was located near latitude 27.0°N and longitude 88.0°W which put it about 240 miles (390 km) south of Mobile, Alabama. The disturbance was moving toward the north-northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1015 mb.

A disturbance generated by a cluster of thunderstorms over the central Gulf of Mexico was designated as Invest 90L on Sunday afternoon. Visible satellite images showed that a distinct center of circulation had formed in a disturbance over the north central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday afternoon. A swirl of lower clouds was clearly visible on the images. Some thunderstorms were beginning to develop in bands northwest of the center of circulation. Otherwise, there were mainly low clouds and showers in the other bands near the center. Thunderstorms were also occurring in a band on the northeastern periphery of the disturbance.

The disturbance will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next 18 hours. The disturbance will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. The southern end of an upper level trough over the central U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of the disturbance. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and the wind shear will inhibit the development of a tropical cyclone. The disturbance is currently forecast not to develop into a tropical cyclone, but some development could occur if more thunderstorms form near the center of circulation. The National Hurricane Center in its 2:00 p.m. EDT Tropical Weather Outlook indicated the probability was 10% that the disturbance would develop into a tropical cyclone.

The upper level trough over the central U.S. will steer the disturbance toward the north-northeast. On its anticipated track the cluster of storms will move toward the central Gulf Coast. Bands of thunderstorms could drop locally heavy rain over northwest Florida and south Alabama during the next 48 hours. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Some thunderstorms could approach severe criteria.

Cluster of Thunderstorms Forms over Central Gulf of Mexico

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A cluster of thunderstorms formed over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The cluster of storms persisted on Sunday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of the cluster of thunderstorms was located near latitude 26.0°N and longitude 88.0°W which put it about 310 miles (500 km) south of Mobile, Alabama. The cluster of thunderstorms was moving slowly toward the north-northeast. Some of the thunderstorms in the cluster were producing sustained winds of 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1015 mb.

A cluster of thunderstorms formed over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and it persisted on Sunday morning. There was not a well defined low level center of circulation beneath the cluster of storms. Visible satellite loops provided indications of several possible centers of rotation in the middle troposphere. Thunderstorms in the cluster generated some upper level divergence that pumped mass away toward the northeast. The strongest winds were occurring in bands of thunderstorms.

The cluster of thunderstorms will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next 18 hours. The cluster of storms will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. The southern end of an upper level trough over the central U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of the thunderstorms. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and the wind shear will inhibit the development of a tropical cyclone. The cluster of thunderstorms is currently forecast not to develop into a tropical cyclone, but some development could occur if a surface center of circulation forms beneath the cluster.

The upper level trough over the central U.S. will steer the cluster of thunderstorms toward the north-northeast. On its anticipated track the cluster of storms will move toward the central Gulf Coast. Bands of thunderstorms could drop locally heavy rain over northwest Florida and south Alabama during the next 48 hours. One band of showers and thunderstorms is currently approaching that area. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Some thunderstorms could approach severe criteria.

Tropical Cyclone Gina Moves over Vanuatu

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Tropical Cyclone Gina moved over Vanuatu on Thursday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gina was located at latitude 17.4°S and longitude 168.4°E which put it about 35 miles (55 km) north-northwest of Port Vila, Vanuatu. Gina was moving toward the south-southwest at 5 m.p.h (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Gina moved over southern Vanuatu on Thursday. The distribution of thunderstorms around Gina’s circulation continued to be asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southeastern part of Tropical Cyclone Gina. Heavy rain fell on Efate. Bands in the other parts of Gina’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. An upper level trough over the Coral Sea continued to produce northwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Gina. Those winds were still causing moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear was contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Gina’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Gina will move through an environment that is only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Gina will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. However, the upper level trough over the Coral Sea will continue to produce northwesterly winds that will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will strongly inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Gina could maintain its intensity during the next 36 hours, if the upper level winds do not get stronger. If the wind shear increases, then Gina could weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Gina will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean during the next 26 hours. The high pressure system will steer Gina toward the southwest. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Gina will move southwest of Vanuatu during the next 36 hours. Gina could be northeast of New Caledonia during the weekend. Heavy rain could continue to fall over Efate during the next 12 to 18 hours. Rain should end on Friday when Tropical Cyclone Gina moves away from Vanuatu.

Tropical Cyclone Gina Forms East of Vanuatu

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Tropical Cyclone Gina formed over the South Pacific Ocean east of Vanuatu on Wednesday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gina was located at latitude 15.3°S and longitude 168.9°E which put it about 190 miles (305 km) north-northeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu. Gina was moving toward the west at 4 m.p.h (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean east of Vanuatu strengthened on Wednesday and the Fiji Meteorological Service designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Gina. The low level center of Tropical Cyclone Gina was located east of Maewo and northeast of Pentecost. The distribution of thunderstorms around Gina’s circulation was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southeastern part of Tropical Cyclone Gina. Bands in the other parts of Gina’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. An upper level trough over the Coral Sea was producing northwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Gina. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear was contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Gina’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Gina will move into an environment that is only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Gina will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. However, the upper level trough over the Coral Sea will continue to produce northwesterly winds that will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will strongly inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Gina could strengthen a little during the next 24 hours, if the upper level winds weaken slightly. If the wind shear increases, then Gina could weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Gina will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Gina toward the southwest. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Gina will move across Pentecost during the next 12 hours. The center of Gina could pass just north of Ambrym and it could move across Malekula within 24 hours. Since the strongest thunderstorms are in the southeastern part of Tropical Cyclone Gina, the gustiest winds and heaviest rain could affect Efate and Port Vila. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone May Develop Northeast of Vanuatu

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A tropical cyclone may develop over the South Pacific Ocean northeast of Vanuatu during the next several days. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of a low pressure system, also designated at Invest 91P, was located at latitude 13.5°S and longitude 171.7°E which put it about 375 miles (600 km) northeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu. The low pressure system was moving toward the south-southwest at 4 m.p.h (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 20 m.p.h. (30 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

More thunderstorms formed just to the southwest of the center of a low pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean northeast of Vanuatu on Monday. Thunderstorms also formed in bands revolving around the center of the low pressure system. The storms just southwest of the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that started to pump mass away from the low pressure system. The better organization exhibited by the low pressure system increased the potential that the low may develop into a tropical cyclone during the next several days.

The low pressure system will move into an environment that is favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone. The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of the low pressure system. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be great enough to prevent intensification. The low pressure system could strengthen to a tropical cyclone during the next several days.

The low pressure system will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the low pressure system toward the south-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track the low pressure system could approach southern Vanuatu later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Asani Makes Landfall in Andhra Pradesh

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Tropical Cyclone Asani made landfall on the east coast of India in Andhra Pradesh on Tuesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Asani was located at latitude 15.8°N and longitude 80.6°E which put it 25 miles (40 km) south of Tenali, India. Asani was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Asani made landfall on the coast of Andhra Pradesh south of Tenali on Tuesday night. Asani was the equivalent of s strong tropical storm at the time of landfall. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Asani. Thunderstorms in bands in the western and northern parts of Asani were dropping heavy rain in scattered areas near the coast of Andhra Pradesh.

Tropical Cyclone Asani will weaken steadily as it moves inland over Andhra Pradesh. The rainfall will become lighter when drier air over India is pulled into Asani’s circulation. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Asani will become shallower when it weakens. Southwesterly winds in the lower levels over India and the Bay of Bengal could steer the weakened circulation of Asani toward the northeast later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Asani Nears East Coast of India

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Tropical Cyclone Asani neared the east coast of India on Tuesday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Asani was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 82.1°E which put it 90 miles (145 km) southeast of Machilipatnam, India and about about 210 miles (330 km) south-southeast of Visakhapatnam. Asani was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Asani maintained its intensity as it moved closer to the east coast of India on Tuesday morning. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force were occurring in an area 30 miles (50 km) north of the center of Asani’s circulation. Even though the intensity of Tropical Cyclone Asani was steady, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern and western parts of Asani’s circulation. Bands in the northern and eastern parts of Asani consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms southwest of the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass allowed Tropical Cyclone Asani to maintain its intensity. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 155 miles (250 km) from the center of Asani.

Tropical Cyclone Asani will move through an environment that will become more unfavorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Asani will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over South Asia. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Asani’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. Asani will move toward a mass of drier air that is sinking over India. The moderate vertical wind shear and the sinking drier air are likely to cause Tropical Cyclone Asani to start to weaken as it approaches the east coast of India during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Asani will move around the western side of a high pressure system over Southeast Asia. The high pressure system will steer Asani toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Asani will reach the east coast of India near Machilipatnam within 18 hours. Asani will bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Andhra Pradesh during the next 36 hours. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Karim Moves Southwest of Cocos Island

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Tropical Cyclone Karim moved southwest of Cocos Island on Tuesday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Karim was located at latitude 17.1°S and longitude 92.4°E which put it about 445 miles (725 km) southwest of Cocos Island. Karim was moving toward the south-southeast at 15 m.p.h (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Karim showed signs of weakening as it moved over the South Indian Ocean southwest of Cocos Island on Tuesday morning. The distribution of thunderstorms became asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands south and east of the center of Karim. Bands in the northern and western parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms southeast of the center of circulation were still generating upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 155 miles (250 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Karim.

Tropical Cyclone Karim will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Karim will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24˚C. An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will produce strong northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Karim’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. A combination of colder Sea Surface Temperatures and moderate vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Karim to weaken during the next 48 hours.

The upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will steer Tropical Cyclone Karim toward the southeast during the next 24 hours. When Karim moves over colder water, the thunderstorms will not rise as high in the atmosphere and the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Karim will not be as tall. When the circulation around Karim becomes shorter, it will be steered by winds lower in the atmosphere. The winds lower in the atmosphere could turn Karim back toward the north later this week. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Karim could meander south of Cocos Island while it weakens during the next several days.

Tropical Cyclone Asani Moves Northwest across Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Asani moved northwest across the Bay of Bengal on Monday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Asani was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 85.3°E which put it about 275 miles (445 km) southeast of Visakhapatnam, India and about 595 miles (965 km) south-southwest of Kolkata. Asani was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Asani became more asymmetrical on Monday morning as Asani moved northwest across the western Bay of Bengal. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Asani’s circulation. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms just west of the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Asani.

Tropical Cyclone Asani will move through an environment that will become more unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Asani will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over South Asia. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Asani’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. Asani will move toward a mass of drier air that is sinking in the ridge over South Asia. The moderate vertical wind shear and the sinking drier air are likely to cause Asani to start to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Asani will move around the western side of a high pressure system over Southeast Asia. The high pressure system will steer Asani toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Asani will move toward the east coast of India. Asani could approach of Visakhapatnam in 48 hours.