Possible Subtropical Development Southeast of Bermuda

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A low pressure system southeast of Bermuda could develop into a subtropical storm during the next few days. At 9:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of the low pressure system was located at latitude 24.0°N and longitude 55.0°W which put it about 855 miles (1380 km) southeast of Bermuda. The low pressure system was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A low pressure system southeast of Bermuda has the potential to develop into a subtropical storm this week. There is already a strong surface circulation around the low pressure system. The surface low pressure system is located northeast of an upper level low. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were occurring in the northern and eastern parts of the surface low pressure system. Bands in the southern and western parts of the surface low consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The low pressure system southeast of Bermuda will move through an environment somewhat favorable for the development of a subtropical storm during the next 48 hours. The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26˚C. It will move under the northeastern part of an upper level low. The upper level low will produce southeasterly winds that will blow across the top of the surface low. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will likely make the environment unfavorable for the development of a tropical storm. However, the wind shear may be weak enough to allow for the surface low to make a transition to a subtropical storm. The National Hurricane Center is indicating there is a probability of 40% that the surface low pressure system develops into a subtropical storm during the next five days.

The upper low will steer the surface low pressure system slowly toward the northwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track the surface low pressure system will remain far to the southeast of Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Yamaneko Moves North of Wake Island

Tropical Storm Yamaneko moved north of Wake Island on Sunday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Yamaneko was located at latitude 23.4°N and longitude 166.0°E which put it about 245 miles (395 km) north of Wake Island. Yamaneko was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Storm Yamaneko moved farther north of Wake Island on Sunday. The distribution of thunderstorms in Yamaneko was asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the far eastern part of Tropical Storm Yamaneko. Bands in the rest of Yamaneko’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. An upper level trough southeast of Japan was producing strong southwesterly winds that were blowing across the top of Tropical Storm Yamaneko. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear. The strong vertical wind shear was causing the upper part of Yamaneko’s circulation to tilt toward the northeast. The strong upper level winds were also blowing off the tops of thunderstorms that started to form near the center of Yamaneko and in the western part of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Yamaneko will move through an environment that will cause it to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next 36 hours. Yamaneko will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are colder than 26˚C. The upper level trough southeast of Japan will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. A combination of cooler water and strong vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Yamaneko to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Storm Yamaneko toward the north-northeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Yamaneko will pass far to the west of Midway Island in 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Yamaneko Forms Northwest of Wake Island

Tropical Storm Yamaneko formed over the Western North Pacific Ocean northwest of Wake Island on Saturday afternoon. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Yamaneko was located at latitude 22.0°N and longitude 165.7°E which put it about 180 miles (295 km) north-northwest of Wake Island. Yamaneko was moving toward the north-northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

An area of low pressure over the Western North Pacific Ocean northwest of Wake Island strengthened on Saturday afternoon and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Yamaneko. Thunderstorms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical storm. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern and western side of the center of Yamaneko’s circulation. Other bands of thunderstorms were in the eastern half of Tropical Storm Yamaneko. Many of the bands in the western side of Yamaneko consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Yamaneko. The winds in the western side of Yamaneko were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Yamaneko will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Yamaneko will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. An upper level trough southeast of Japan will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Yamaneko’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent Yamaneko from getting a little stronger. Tropical Storm Yamaneko is likely to intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough southeast of Japan will steer Tropical Storm Yamaneko toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Yamaneko will move farther away from Wake Island.

Tropical Depression Nicole Drops Heavy Rain over Southeast U.S.

Tropical Depression Nicole dropped heavy rain over parts of the southeastern U.S. on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Nicole was located at latitude 34.2°N and longitude 84.3°W which put it about 35 miles (55 km) north of Atlanta, Georgia. Nicole was moving toward the north-northeast at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

Tropical Storm Nicole dropped heavy rain over parts of the southeastern U.S. on Friday morning. Heavy rain was falling over eastern Tennessee and eastern Kentucky. Bands in the far eastern side of Nicole’s circulation contained thunderstorms that were dropping heavy rain over parts of eastern South Carolina, eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia. Easterly winds blowing around the northern side of Nicole’s circulation were enhancing convergence and rising motion ahead of a cold front moving toward the eastern U.S. The enhanced convergence and rising motion was contributing to rain that was falling in the region from Delaware to Ohio.

The cold front approaching the eastern U.S. and an upper level trough over the central U.S. will steer Tropical Depression Nicole quickly toward the north-northeast during Friday. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Depression Nicole will be over West Virginia by Friday evening. Heavy rain falling over parts of the southeastern U.S. and Appalachians could cause flooding. Flood Watches were in effect for parts of northern South Carolina, western North Carolina and southern Virginia. There could be enough low level wind shear for tornadoes to develop in the bands on the far eastern side of the circulation around Tropical Depression Nicole. A Tornado Watch was in effect for eastern South Carolina, eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia.

Tropical Storm Nicole Brings Wind and Rain to Florida

Tropical Storm Nicole brought wind and rain to Florida on Thursday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located at latitude 29.4°N and longitude 83.2°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) northwest of Cedar Key, Florida. Nicole was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. The Tropical Storm Warning included Jacksonville. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Aripeka to Indian Pass, Florida.

Tropical Storm Nicole brought wind and rain as it moved across Central Florida. Nicole weakened gradually as it moved across the Florida Peninsula, but it still had a well organized circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 170 miles (275 km) from the center of Nicole’s circulation.

The strongest winds in Tropical Storm Nicole occurred near the east coast of Florida on Thursday. A weather station in Daytona Beach reported a sustained wind speed of 49 m.p.h. (79 km/h) and a wind gust of 70 m.p.h. (113 km/h). A weather station in St. Augustine reported a sustained wind speed of 46 m.p.h. (74 km/h) and a wind gust of 59 m.p.h. (95 km/h). A weather station in Jacksonville reported a sustained wind speed of 37 m.p.h. (59 km/h) and a wind gust of 56 m.p.h. (91 km/h). The winds were weaker along the west coast of Florida. A weather station in Tampa reported a sustained wind speed of 29 m.p.h. (46 km/h) and a wind gust of 53 m.p.h. (85 km/h).

An upper level trough and a surface cold front over the central U.S. will turn Tropical Storm Nicole toward the northeast during Thursday night. The center of Nicole will be over southern Georgia on Thursday night and it could be over western South Carolina by Friday afternoon. Tropical Storm Nicole will continue to weaken during the next 24 hours. Nicole will produce gusty winds over northern Florida, southern Georgia and parts of South Carolina. Those winds could cause scattered power outages. The large waves causing serious beach erosion along the east coast of Florida will start to diminish on Friday. Waves could cause some erosion of beaches in Georgia and South Carolina on Friday when Tropical Storm Nicole moves farther to the north. Nicole could drop locally heavy rain over parts of northern Florida, southern Georgia, and South Carolina. Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.

Hurricane Nicole Makes Landfall in Florida

Hurricane Nicole made landfall in Florida early on Thursday. Nicole weakened to a tropical storm after it made landfall. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located at latitude 27.8°N and longitude 80.7°W which put it about 60 miles (95 km) southeast of Orlando, Florida. Nicole was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Boca Raton, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina. The Tropical Storm Warning included West Palm Beach, Ft. Pierce, Daytona Beach, Jacksonville, and Charleston, South Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to Indian Pass, Florida, The Tropical Storm Warning included Tampa and St. Petersburg.

According to the National Hurricane Center, the center of Hurricane Nicole made landfall on the east coast of Florida just to the south of Vero Beach. The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km) at the time of landfall. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the eastern side of Nicole’s circulation at the time of landfall. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 450 miles (725 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Nicole weakened to a tropical storm after the center moved inland over Central Florida, but Nicole was bringing strong, gusty winds to Central Florida. A weather station in Vero Beach reported a sustained wind speed of 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 60 m.p.h. (97 km/h). A weather station in Melbourne reported a sustained wind speed of 52 m.p.h. (84 km/h) and a wind gust of 64 m.p.h. (103 km/h). A weather station in Orlando reported a sustained wind speed of 43 m.p.h. (69 km/h) and a wind gust of 63 m.p.h. (102 km/h). Tropical Storm Nicole was dropping heavy rain over parts of the Florida Peninsula.

Tropical Storm Nicole will move around the southwestern part of a surface high pressure system near the East Coast of the U.S. The high pressure system will steer Nicole toward the northwest during the next 12 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Nicole will move over northern Florida on Thursday evening. An upper level trough and a cold front will approach Nicole from the west on Thursday night. The upper level trough and cold front will steer Tropical Storm Nicole toward the northeast on Friday. The center of Nicole could be over South Carolina on Friday afternoon.

Tropical Storm Nicole will weaken gradually as it moves across Central Florida. Nicole will continue to bring strong, gusty winds to central and northern Florida. Gusty winds could cause widespread power outages. Even though the center of Nicole will be inland, easterly winds will continue to blow water toward the east coast of Florida. Tropical Storm Nicole could cause a storm surge of up to 5 feet (1.5 meters) in some locations. Large waves will continue to cause significant beach erosion. Nicole will drop heavy rain over parts of central and northern Florida and southern Georgia. Heavy rain could cause fresh water floods in some locations.

Nicole Strengthens to a Hurricane East of Florida

Former Tropical Storm Nicole strengthened to a hurricane east of Florida on Wednesday evening. At 7:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Nicole was located at latitude 26.6°N and longitude 78.5°W which put it about 100 miles (160 km) east of West Palm Beach, Florida. Nicole was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Boca Raton to the Flagler/ Volusia County Line, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included West Palm Beach, Ft. Pierce, Melbourne and Daytona Beach. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the Abacos, Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Boca Raton to Hallandale Beach, Florida. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Bimini. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida to the South Santee River, South Carolina. The Tropical Storm Warning includes Jacksonville, Florida and Charleston, South Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to Indian Pass, Florida. The Tropical Storm Warning included Tampa and St. Petersburg.

Former Tropical Storm Nicole intensified to a hurricane when it move over the warm water in the Gulf Stream Current on Wednesday evening. The eye of Hurricane Nicole was over Grand Bahama Island. The eye had a diameter of 30 miles (50 km). The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in the northern part of that ring. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Nicole. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease at the center of circulation.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Hurricane Nicole, but the overall circulation was very large. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 480 miles (775 km) from the center of Nicole’s circulation. Stations along the east coast of Florida reported sustained wind speeds of tropical storm force on Wednesday evening. Electricity outages were reported in several areas. Northeasterly winds were pushing water toward the coast and water level rises were reported from South Carolina to Florida. Large waves were causing significant beach erosion along the east coast of Florida.

Hurricane Nicole will continue to move through an environment that is favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Nicole will move over warm water in the Gulf Stream Current where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Nicole will extract more energy from the warmer water and it is likely to strengthen a little more during the next few hours.

Hurricane Nicole will move around the southwestern part of a surface high pressure system currently over the northeastern U.S. The high pressure system will steer Nicole toward the west-northwest during the next 12 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Nicole will make landfall on the east coast of Florida near or just to the north of West Palm Beach on Wednesday night. Nicole will be a hurricane when it reaches Florida. Hurricane Nicole will continue to bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the east coast of Florida. The winds in the northern side of Nicole will continue to blow water toward the coast of Florida and the Southeast U.S. Those winds could cause a storm surge of up to 6 feet (1.8 meters) in some locations. Large waves will keep breaking on the coast and they will cause significant beach erosion.

Hurricane Nicole will move northwest across Central Florida on Thursday. Nicole will weaken back to a tropical storm when it moves across Florida. Nicole could bring tropical storm force winds to the area around Orlando. The center of Nicole will be over northern Florida on Thursday evening. Widespread electricity outages could occur in central and northern Florida. Nicole will drop locally heavy rain over central and northern Florida, and southern Georgia. Heavy rain could cause fresh water floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Nicole Brings Wind and Rain to Northwestern Bahamas

Tropical Storm Nicole brought wind and rain to the Northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday afternoon. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located at latitude 26.5°N and longitude 77.9°W which put it about 135 miles (220 km) east of West Palm Beach, Florida. Nicole was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Boca Raton to the Flagler/ Volusia County Line, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included West Palm Beach, Ft. Pierce, Melbourne and Daytona Beach. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the Abacos, Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Boca Raton to Hallandale Beach, Florida. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Bimini. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida to the South Santee River, South Carolina. The Tropical Storm Warning includes Jacksonville, Florida and Charleston, South Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to Indian Pass, Florida. The Tropical Storm Warning included Tampa and St. Petersburg.

The center of Tropical Storm Nicole passed over Great Abaco Island in the Northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday. The center of Nicole’s circulation was just to the southeast of Grand Bahama Island on Wednesday afternoon. The inner end of a rainband wrapped completely around the center of circulation. An eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) formed at the center of Tropical Storm Nicole. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Nicole. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease at the center of circulation.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Tropical Storm Nicole, but the overall circulation was very large. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 480 miles (775 km) from the center of Nicole’s circulation. Stations along the east coast of Florida reported sustained wind speeds of tropical storm force on Wednesday afternoon. Electricity outages were reported in several areas. Northeasterly winds were pushing water toward the coast and water level rises were reported from South Carolina to Florida. Large waves were causing significant beach erosion along the east coast of Florida.

Tropical Storm Nicole will move through an environment that is favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Nicole will move over warm water in the Gulf Stream Current where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move into a region where the upper level winds are weaker and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Nicole will extract more energy from the warmer water and it is likely to intensify to a hurricane during the next few hours.

Tropical Storm Nicole will move around the southwestern part of a surface high pressure system currently over the northeastern U.S. The high pressure system will steer Nicole toward the west-northwest during the next 12 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Nicole will make landfall on the east coast of Florida near or just to the north of West Palm Beach on Wednesday night. Nicole is likely to be a hurricane when it reaches Florida. Nicole will continue to bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the east coast of Florida. The winds in the northern side of Nicole will continue to blow water toward the coast of Florida and the Southeast U.S. Those winds could cause a storm surge of up to 6 feet (1.8 meters) in some locations. Large waves will keep breaking on the coast and they will cause significant beach erosion.

Tropical Storm Nicole will move northwest across Central Florida on Thursday. Nicole could bring tropical storm force winds to the area around Orlando. The center of Nicole will be over northern Florida on Thursday evening. Widespread electricity outages could occur in central and northern Florida. Tropical Storm Nicole will drop locally heavy rain over central and northern Florida, and southern Georgia. Heavy rain could cause fresh water floods in some locations.

Nicole Transitions to Tropical Storm, Hurricane Warning Issued for Florida

Former Subtropical Storm Nicole completed a transition to a tropical storm on Tuesday morning and a Hurricane Warning was issued for a portion of the east coast of Florida. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located at latitude 27.8°N and longitude 72.7°W which put it about 460 miles (740 km) east of West Palm Beach, Florida. Nicole was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Boca Raton to the Flagler/ Volusia County Line, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included West Palm Beach, Ft. Pierce, Melbourne and Daytona Beach. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini and Grand Bahama Island. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton, Florida. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Andros Island, New Providence and Eleuthera. A Tropcial Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida. The Tropical Storm Warning includes Jacksonville. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Hallandale Beach to Ocean Reef, Florida. The Tropical Storm Watch included Miami. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River, Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound to Savannah River, Georgia.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of former Subtropical Storm Nicole’s circulation. Thunderstorms near the center of circulation is one of the characteristics of a tropical storm. When the thunderstorms near the center persisted, the National Hurricane Center indicated that Nicole had complete a transition to a tropical storm. There was still a large area of tropical storm force winds around Nicole. Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 380 miles (615 km) in the northern side of Tropical Storm Nicole. Those winds were not entirely being produced by Nicole’s circulation. A large surface high pressure system was over the northeastern U.S. The high pressure system was interacting with the northern side of Nicole’s circulation to generate the large area of tropical storm force winds.

Tropical Storm Nicole will move through an environment that is favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Nicole will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move into a region where the upper level winds are weaker and the vertical wind shear will diminish. Tropical Storm Nicole is likely to intensify gradually during the next 12 hours. Nicole will move over warmer water when it moves over the Gulf Stream on Wednesday. Nicole will extract more energy from the warmer water and it is likely to strengthen more rapidly on Wednesday. Tropical Storm Nicole could intensify to a hurricane when it moves over the warmer water.

The surface high pressure system currently over the northeastern U.S. will block Tropical Storm Nicole from moving toward the north. The high pressure system will steer Nicole toward the west-southwest during the next 18 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Nicole will reach the Northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday morning. Nicole will move toward the west-northwest on Wednesday when it reaches the southwestern part of the high pressure system. Nicole will reach the east coast of Florida on Wednesday night. Nicole could be a hurricane when it reaches Florida. Nicole is likely to bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Northwestern Bahamas and to central and northern Florida. The winds in the northern side of Nicole will blow water toward the coast of Florida and the Southeast U.S. Those winds will cause a storm surge and serious beach erosion when Nicole moves toward the coast.

Subtropical Storm Nicole Strengthens

Subtropical Storm Nicole strengthened on Tuesday morning as it moved over the Western Atlantic Ocean east of the Bahamas. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Subtropical Storm Nicole was located at latitude 27.7°N and longitude 72.0°W which put it about 385 miles (615 km) east of the Northwestern Bahamas. Nicole was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini and Grand Bahama Island. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to Hallandale Beach, Florida. The Hurricane Watch included Melbourne, West Palm Beach and Ft. Lauderdale. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Andros Island, New Providence and Eleuthera. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to Hallandale Beach, Florida. The Tropical Storm Warning includes Jacksonville and Daytona Beach. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Hallandale Beach to Ocean Reef, Florida. The Tropical Storm Watch included Miami. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River, Florida.

Subtropical Storm Nicole began a transition to a tropical storm on Tuesday morning as it gradually strengthened. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Nicole’s circulation. Thunderstorms near the center of circulation is one of the characteristics of a tropical storm. There was still a large area of tropical storm force winds around Nicole, which is one of the characteristics of a subtropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out almost 400 miles (645 km) in the northern side of Subtropical Storm Nicole. Those winds were not entirely being produced by Nicole’s circulation. A large surface high pressure system was over the northeastern U.S. The high pressure system was interacting with the northern side of Nicole’s circulation to generate the large area of tropical storm force winds.

Subtropical Storm Nicole will move through an environment that is favorable for a transition to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. Nicole will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move into a region where the upper level winds are weaker and the vertical wind shear will diminish. Subtropical Storm Nicole is likely to complete the transition to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. Nicole will move over warmer water when it moves over the Gulf Stream on Wednesday. Nicole could intensify to a hurricane when it moves over the warmer water.

The surface high pressure system currently over the northeastern U.S. will block Subtropical Storm Nicole from moving toward the north. The high pressure system will steer Nicole toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Subtropical Storm Nicole will reach the Northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday morning. Nicole will move toward the west-northwest on Wednesday when it reaches the southwestern part of the high pressure system. Nicole will reach the coast of Southeast Florida on Wednesday night. Nicole could be a hurricane when it reaches Florida. Nicole is likely to bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Northwestern Bahamas and to central and northern Florida. The winds in the northern side of Nicole will blow water toward the coast of Florida and the Southeast U.S. Those winds will cause a storm surge and serious beach erosion when Nicole moves toward the coast.