Tropical Depression Forms East of the Philippines

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A tropical depression formed over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines on Tuesday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of the tropical depression was located at latitude 9.1°N and longitude 135.0°E which put the center about 125 miles (200 km) north of Palau.  The tropical depression was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines strengthened on Tuesday morning and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as a tropical depression.

The circulation around the tropical depression was gradually getting more organized.  More thunderstorms were developing in bands revolving around the center of the tropical depression.  Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

The tropical depression will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the depression’s circulation.  The winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  The tropical depression is likely to intensify to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

Th tropical depression will move around the southern part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the tropical depression will move toward the southern Philippines.

 

Tropical Cyclone Fytia Passes Southwest of La Reunion

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Tropical Cyclone Fytia was passing southwest of La Reunion on Monday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia was located at latitude 22.3°S and longitude 53.4°E which put the center about 180 miles (290 km) southwest of St. Denis, La Reunion.  Fytia was moving toward the south-southeast at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia exhibited signs of the beginning of a transition to an extratropical cyclone on Monday morning.  The distribution of thunderstorms in Fytia was becoming asymmetrical.  Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Fytia’s circulation.  Many of the bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Fytia consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Fytia still were generating upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of winds speeds in Tropical Cyclone Fytia was also more asymmetrical on Monday morning.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) in the southern half of Fytia’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the northern half of Tropical Cyclone Fytia.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move into an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Fytia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge that is over La Reunion and Mauritius.  The upper level ridge will produce strong northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fytia’s circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  The strong vertical wind shear will also cause Tropical Cyclone Fytia to make a gradual transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next several days.  Fytia is likely to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move around the southwestern side of a high pressure system that is over the Southwest Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fytia toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fytia will pass south of La Reunion and Mauritius during the middle part of this week.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia Moves East of Madagascar

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Tropical Cyclone Fytia moved to the east of Madagascar on Sunday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia was located at latitude 20.7°S and longitude 50.7°E which put the center about 145 miles (235 km) southeast of Toamasina, Madagascar.  Fytia was moving toward the southeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia started to intensify again after it moved over the Southwest Indian Ocean east of Madagascar on Sunday.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of Fytia’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also formed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia.  Storms near the center of Fytia generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and east of the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fytia was still small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Fytia’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fytia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge that is over La Reunion and Mauritius.  The upper level ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fytia’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Fytia will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move around the southwestern side of a high pressure system that is over the Southwest Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fytia toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fytia continue to move away from Madagascar.  Fytia will pass south of La Reunion and Mauritius later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia Brings Wind and Rain to Madagascar

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Tropical Cyclone Fytia was bringing wind and rain to Madagascar on Saturday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia was located at latitude 17.5°S and longitude 47.0°E which put the center about 140 miles (225 km) north-northwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar.  Fytia was moving toward the southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia made landfall on the west coast of Madagascar west of Soalala on Friday night.  Fytia was the equivalent of a major hurricane at the time of landfall.  It then started to weaken as it moved southeast across central Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia was the equivalent of a tropical storm on Saturday morning.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Fytia’s circulation.

An upper level trough over the Mozambique Channel will steer Tropical Cyclone Fytia toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  The center of Fytia’s circulation will pass between Antananarivo and Toamasina.  Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move over the Southwest Indian Ocean on Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to central Madagascar.   Heavy rain is very likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Widespread electricity outages are also likely.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

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Tropical Cyclone Fytia rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane before it hit the west coast of Madagascar on Friday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 45.2°E which put the center about 25 miles (40 km) west of Soalala, Madagascar.  Fytia was moving toward the east-southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia continued to intensify rapidly on Friday right up to the time it hit the west coast of Madagascar.  A small circular eye was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Fytia’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Fytia generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fytia was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Fytia’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Fytia was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HWISI) was 9.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 30.0 Tropical Cyclone Fytia was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fytia toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fytia will across central Madagascar on Saturday.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia made landfall on the west coast of Madagascar west of Soalala.  The center of Fytia’s circulation is likely to pass between Antananarivo and Toamasina on Saturday night.  Tropical Cyclone Fytia will weaken as it moves across Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of west central Madagascar and to central Madagascar.  Fytia could cause major damage in those areas.   Heavy rain is very likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Fytia could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of the west coast of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

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Tropical Cyclone Fytia rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Mozambique Channel early on Friday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia was located at latitude 15.5°S and longitude 43.0°E which put the center about 240 miles (385 km) west of Mahajanga, Madagascar.  Fytia was moving toward the east at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon early on Friday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Fytia’s circulation.  A small circular eye formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Fytia’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Fytia generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fytia was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Fytia’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Fytia was 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HWISI) was 9.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 23.2  Tropical Cyclone Fytia was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Hanna when Hanna hit South Texas in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Fytia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Mozambique Channel.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Fytia will intensify during the next 12 hours.  Fytia could rapidly intensify to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fytia toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fytia will reach the west coast of Madagascar between Soalala and Besalampy on Friday night.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of west central Madagascar and to central Madagascar.  Fytia could cause major damage in those areas.  Heavy rain is very likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Fytia could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of the west coast of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia Forms Over Mozambique Channel

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Tropical Cyclone Fytia formed over the Mozambique Channel on Thursday.  At 7:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia was located at latitude 15.6°S and longitude 42.4°E which put the center about 270 miles (435 km) west of Mahajanga, Madagascar.  Fytia was moving toward the east-southeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A low pressure system over the Mozambique Channel strengthened on Thursday and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Fytia.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fytia organized quickly on Thursday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Fytia’s circulation.  A small eye appeared to be forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Fytia’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Fytia generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fytia was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Fytia’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fytia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Mozambique Channel.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Fytia will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Fytia could rapidly intensify to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fytia slowly toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fytia will approach the west coast of Madagascar between Soalala and Besalampy on Friday evening.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of west central Madagascar.  Heavy rain is very likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Fytia could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along parts of the west coast of Madagascar.

 

Tropical Cyclone Luana Brings Wind and Rain to Western Australia

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Tropical Cyclone Luana brought wind and rain to Western Australia on Saturday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Luana was located at latitude 17.5°S and longitude 123.1°E which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) west of Derby, Australia.  Luana was moving toward the southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning that was in effect for the portion of the coast from Broome to Cockatoo Island.  The Warning included Derby.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Luana made landfall on the Dampier Peninsula between Beagle Bay and Cape Leveque early on Saturday.  Luana intensified prior to making landfall.  Tropical Cyclone Luana was the equivalent of a strong tropical storm at the time of landfall.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Luana became more symmetrical before it made landfall.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Luana’s circulation.

A weather station in Derby in Western Australia reported a sustained wind speed of 43 m.p.h. (69 km/h) and a wind gust of 60 m.p.h. (96 km/h).  That weather station reported 7.43 inches (188.8 mm) of rain so far.

A weather station in Broome reported a sustained wind speed of 25 m.p.h. (41 km/h) and a wind gust of 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The weather station in Broome reported 1.87 inches (47.4 mm) of rain.

Tropical Cyclone Luana Will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Luana toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours.   On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Luana will move inland over Western Australia south of Derby during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Luana will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of Western Australia.   Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Warnings are in effect for the West Kimberley District and the North Kimberley District.

A Flood Watch is in effect for the Western Sandy Desert.

Tropical Cyclone Luana could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast of King Sound.

Tropical Cyclone Luana will weaken gradually as it moves farther inland over Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Luana Approaches Western Australia

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Tropical Cyclone Luana was approaching the coast of Western Australia on Friday afternoon.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Luana was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 121.7°E which put the center about 140 miles (230 km) north-northwest of Broome, Australia.  Luana was moving toward the southeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the portion of the coast from Broome to Kuri Bay.  The Warning included Derby.

A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bidyadanga to Broome.

Tropical Cyclone Luana strengthened on Friday as it moved closer to the coast of Western Australia.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Luana’s circulation.  More thunderstorms developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Luana.  Storms near the center of Luana generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Luana was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Luana’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out only 60 miles (95 km) in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone Luana.

Tropical Cyclone Luana will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Luana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.   It will move under the middle part of an upper level ridge that is northwest of Australia.   The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.   Tropical Cyclone Luana will Intensify during the next few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Luana Will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Luana toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.   On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Luana will make landfall on the coast of Western Australia between Beagle Bay and Cape Leveque in a few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Luana will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the portion of Western Australia between Broome and Kuri Bay.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for the Northwest Kimberley and Western Sandy Desert regions.

Tropical Cyclone Luana could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast of Western Australia.

Tropical Low Moves Toward Western Australia

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A Tropical Low over the South Indian Ocean was moving toward the coast of Western Australia on Thursday night.  The U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center is now designating the Tropical Low as Tropical Cyclone 17S.

At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone 17S was located at latitude 13.6°S and longitude 120.2°E which put the center about 355 miles (575 km) north-northwest of Broome, Australia.  Tropical Cyclone 17S was moving toward the southeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the portion of the coast from Broome to Kuri Bay.  The Warning included Derby.

A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bidyadanga to Broome.  A Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Kuri Bay to Mitchell Plateau.

Tropical Cyclone 17S was exhibiting more organization on Thursday evening.  More thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern and western side of the tropical cyclone.  There still were not a lot of thunderstorms near the center of Tropical Cyclone 17S.  The thunderstorms were starting to generate more upper level divergence that was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone 17S.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) in the northern side of the tropical cyclone.  The winds in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone 17S were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone 17S will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Tropical Cyclone 17S will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle part of an upper level ridge that is northwest of Australia.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone 17S will Intensify during the next 24 hours.  It could intensify rapidly.

Tropical Cyclone 17S Will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone 17S will approach the coast of Western Australia near Cape Leveque in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 17S will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the portion of Western Australia between Broome and Kuri Bay.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for the Northwest Kimberley and Western Sandy Desert regions.

Tropical Cyclone 17S could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast of Western Australia.