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Lorena Weakens to a Tropical Storm

Former Hurricane Lorena weakened to a tropical storm over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Thursday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located at latitude 24.2°N and longitude 114.2°W which put the center about 125 miles (200 km) west-southwest of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.  Lorena was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Cortes to Punta Eugenia, Mexico.

Former Hurricane Lorena weakened to a tropical storm over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Thursday morning.  A upper level trough that is west of Baja California was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Lorena’s circulation.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  The strong wind shear was pushing the middle and upper parts of Tropical Storm Lorena to the northeast of the surface circulation.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the northeastern part of Lorena’s circulation.  Bands in the other parts of Lorena consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Lorena was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended  out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Lorena’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Lorena will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Lorena will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24°C.  The upper level trough that is west of Baja California will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  The combination of cool Sea Surface Temperatures and strong vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Lorena to weaken steadily during the next 24 hours.

The strong vertical wind shear is likely to separate the lower portion of Tropical Storm Lorena from the middle and upper parts of Lorena’s circulation.  The lower portion of Lorena’s circulation could meander west of Baja California.  The middle and upper parts of Tropical Storm Lorena will be steered toward the northeast by the upper level trough that is west of Baja California.

The middle and upper parts of Tropical Storm Lorena will move across Baja California, over Sonora, and toward New Mexico and southeastern Arizona.  The middle and upper parts of Lorena’s circulation will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to those areas.  The strongest winds will occur in mountainous regions.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Kiko continued to churn slowly toward Hawaii.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Kiko was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 133.7°W which put the center about 1470 miles (2365 km) east-southeast of Hilo Hawaii.  Kiko was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 951 mb.

Hurricane Lorena Moves Toward Baja California

Hurricane Lorena was moving toward Baja California on Wednesday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Lorena was located at latitude 23.4°N and longitude 113.2°W which put the center about 110 miles (175 km) south-southwest of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.  Lorena was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Santa Fe to Punta Eugenia, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Todos Santos to Sante Fe, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Santa Rosalia to Bahia de Los Angeles, Mexico.

Hurricane Lorena strengthened a little more on Wednesday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Lorena’s circulation.  However, an eye was not visible on satellite images.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Lorena.  Storms near the center of Lorena generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Lorena was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Lorena’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Hurricane Lorena.

Hurricane Lorena will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Lorena will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough that is west of Baja California.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Lorena’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  The combination of cooler Sea Surface Temperatures and more vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Lorena to weaken on Thursday.

Hurricane Lorena will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Lorena toward the north during the next 24 hours.  The upper level trough that is west of Baja California will steer Lorena toward the northeast later on Thursday.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Lorena will approach the coast of Baja California between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia on Friday.

Hurricane Lorena will weaken to a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of Baja California.  Lorena will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Baja California.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Kiko strengthened to a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale far to the east-southeast of Hawaii.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Kiko was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 132.3°W which put the center about 1560 miles (2510 km) east-southeast of Hilo Hawaii.  Kiko was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 170 m.p.h. (275 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

Lorena Intensifies to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Lorena intensified to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Tuesday night.  The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the coast of Baja California.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Lorena was located at latitude 21.9°N and longitude 111.1°W which put the center about 105 miles (165 km) southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Lorena was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for a portion of the coast from Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lucas to Santa Fe, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Abreojos, Mexico.

Former Tropical Storm Lorena intensified to a hurricane on Tuesday night.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped part of the way around the center of Lorena’s circulation.  A small eye appeared to be forming at the center of Hurricane Lorena.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Lorena’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Lorena generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Lorena was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Lorena’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Hurricane Lorena.

Hurricane Lorena will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Lorena will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the western part of the axis of an upper level ridge over Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Lorena will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Lorena could intensify rapidly at times on Wednesday.

Hurricane Lorena will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Lorena toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  Lorena is expected to move toward the north on Thursday.  On it anticipated track, Hurricane Lorena could approach the coast of Baja California between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia on Friday.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Kiko continued to churn toward the west.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Kiko was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 130.1°W which put the center about 1700 miles (2735 km) east Hilo Hawaii.  Kiko was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

 

Lorena Prompts Tropical Storm Watch for Baja California

The risk posed by Tropical Storm Lorena prompted the government of Mexico to issue a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the coast of southern Baja California.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located at latitude 19.4°N and longitude 109.0°W which put the center about 250 miles (400 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Lorena was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lucas to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Lorena strengthened gradually on Tuesday afternoon.  Thunderstorms continued to develop near the center of Lorena’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Lorena.  Storms near the center of Lorena generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and west of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease slowly.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Lorena was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Lorena’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Lorena will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Lorena will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Lorena’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Lorena will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Lorena could strengthen to a hurricane on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Lorena will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Lorena toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Lorena will move south of Baja California during Tuesday night.  Lorena is expected to move toward the northeast later this week.  Tropical Storm Lorena could approach the coast of Baja California between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia on Friday.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Kiko strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale far to the east of Hawaii.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Kiko was located at latitude 13.9°N and longitude 128.9°W which put the center about 1775 miles (2855 km) east Hilo Hawaii.  Kiko was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Depression Strengthens to Tropical Storm Lorena

Former Tropical Depression Twelve-E strengthened to Tropical Storm Lorena over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south-southeast of Baja California on Tuesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located at latitude 18.3°N and longitude 107.9°W which put the center about 345 miles (550 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Lorena was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Former Tropical Depression Twelve-E strengthened to Tropical Storm Lorena on Tuesday morning.  New thunderstorms continued to develop near the center of Lorena’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Lorena.  Storms near the center of Lorena generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and west of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Lorena was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Lorena’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Lorena will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Lorena will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over Mexico. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Lorena’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Lorena will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Lorena will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Lorena toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Lorena will move south of Baja California during Tuesday night.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, former Tropical Storm Kiko intensified to a hurricane far to the east of Hawaii.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Kiko was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 128.3°W which put the center about 1815 miles (2920 km) east Hilo Hawaii.  Kiko was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Tropical Depression 12E Forms Near Mexico’s West Coast

Tropical Depression Twelve-E formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean near the west coast of Mexico on Monday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Twelve-E was located at latitude 17.2°N and longitude 105.4°W which put the center about 145 miles (230 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Tropical Depression Twelve-E was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean strengthened on Monday evening and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Twelve-E.

The circulation around Tropical Depression Twelve-E exhibited more organization on Monday evening.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of the tropical depression.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Depression Twelve-E.  Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Twelve-E will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical depression.  The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east.  So, there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Depression Twelve-E will intensify to a tropical storm on Tuesday.

Tropical Depression Twelve-E will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Twelve-E will move toward Baja California.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Kiko intensified on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 127.3°W which put the center about 1880 miles (3025 km) east Hilo Hawaii.  Kiko was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Kristy Weakens to a Tropical Storm

Former Hurricane Kristy weakened to a tropical storm over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Baja California on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Kristy was located at latitude 20.7°N and longitude 129.2°W which put the center about 1245 miles (2005 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Kristy was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Former Hurricane Kristy moved under the eastern side of an upper level trough east of Hawaii.  The upper level trough produced strong southwesterly winds that blew across the top of Kristy’s circulation.  Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear.  The wind shear blew the tops off of many of the thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Kristy, which caused Kristy to weaken rapidly.

The former eye of then Hurricane Kristy was still visible on satellite images.  However, the eye was surrounded by a ring of low clouds.  A few thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the northern side of Tropical Storm Kristy.  Most of the bands revolving around the center of Kristy’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Despite the strong vertical wind shear, the distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Kristy was fairly symmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Kristy’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Kristy will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Kristy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C.  The upper level trough east of Hawaii will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Kristy will continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough east of Hawaii will steer Tropical Storm Kristy toward the northwest during the next 12 hours.  After the last thunderstorms in Kristy’s circulation dissipate, the tropical storm will be steered by the winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  A high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean will steer Kristy toward the west-southwest on Sunday.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Kristy will remain far from any land area.

Hurricane Kristy Weakens

Hurricane Kristy weakened over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Friday morning,  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Kristy was located at latitude 15.6°N and longitude 124.8°W which put the center about 1085 miles (1750 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Kristy was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

Hurricane Kristy weakened over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Friday morning after reaching Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Thursday.  Clouds were developing inside the eye at the center of Kristy’s circulation.  The eye was still surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Kristy.  Storms near the core of Kristy’s circulation generated less upper level divergence than they did on Thursday.  The removal of less mass caused the surface pressure to increase.

The circulation around Hurricane Kristy continued to be small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Kristy’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Hurricane Kristy.

Hurricane Kristy will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Kristy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the southern end of an upper level trough east of Hawaii.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Kristy’s circulation.  Those upper level winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Hurricane Kristy will continue to weaken during the next 24 hours because of the increased vertical wind shear.

Hurricane Kristy will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Kristy toward the northwest during the next 24 h.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Kristy will continue to remain far from any land mass.

Hurricane Kristy Intensifies to Cat. 5

Hurricane Kristy intensified to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Thursday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Kristy was located at latitude 14.2°N and longitude 121.6°W which put the center about 970 miles (1565 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Kristy was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 926 mb.

Hurricane Kristy looked like a Category 5 hurricane on visible satellite images on Thursday afternoon.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Kristy’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Kristy.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large amounts of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Kristy was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Kristy’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Hurricane Kristy.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Kristy was 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 8.2.  Hurricane Kristy is smaller than Hurricane Milton was when Milton was over the Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Kristy will move through an environment that will become less favorable for a powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Kristy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move toward the southern end of an upper level trough between Hawaii and California.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will start to affect Hurricane Kristy on Friday.  Those upper level winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Hurricane Kristy will start to weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.

Hurricane Kristy will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Kristy toward the northwest during the next 24 h.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Kristy will continue to remain far from any land mass.

Kristy Rapidly Intensifies to a Major Hurricane South of Baja California

Hurricane Kristy rapidly intensified to a major hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Kristy was located at latitude 14.3°N and longitude 113.9°W which put the center about 650 miles (1045 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Kristy was moving toward the west at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Hurricane Kristy continued to intensify rapidly on Wednesday morning.  A small circular eye was at the center of Kristy’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Kristy.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large amounts of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Hurricane Kristy was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Kristy’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Hurricane Kristy.

Hurricane Kristy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Kristy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Kristy will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Kristy could continue to intensify rapidly. Hurricane Kristy could to strengthen to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Thursday.

Hurricane Kristy will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will continue to steer Kristy toward the west during the next 24 h.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Kristy will continue to move farther away from Mexico.