Tag Archives: Punta Abreojos

Hurricane Polo Hits Sonora

Hurricane Polo hit Sonora on Tuesday morning after crossing the southern part of Baja California on Monday night.

At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Polo was located at latitude 26.9°N and longitude 111.7°W which put the center about 90 miles (145 km) south-southwest of Guaymas, Mexico.  Polo was moving toward the northeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the west coast of Baja California from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe, Mexico.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the east coast of Baja California from  Loreto to Bahia San Juan Bautista, Mexico.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bahia Kino to Huatabampito, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Loreto to San Evaristo, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Huatabampito to Topolobampo, Mexico.

A large upper level trough over the western U.S. was producing strong southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Hurricane Polo.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  Those winds were also blowing the upper part of Polo’s circulation to the northeast of the lower level circulation.  The upper part of Hurricane Polo was already over Sonora.  The lower part of Polo’s circulation was near the coast south of Guaymas.

Hurricane force winds extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of the surface circulation around Hurricane Polo.  Tropical storm force winds extended out 90 miles from the center of the surface circulation.

The upper level trough over the western U.S. will steer Hurricane Polo toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Polo will move across northern Mexico toward New Mexico.

The strong vertical wind shear and the mountains in northern Mexico will cause the surface circulation around Hurricane Polo to weaken quickly.  The upper part of Hurricane Polo could reach southern New Mexico on Tuesday night.

Hurricane Polo will continue to produce strong winds and heavy rain over Sonora during the next few hours.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Polo could also drop locally heavy rain over parts of northern Mexico and New Mexico.

Flood Watches are in effect for much of New Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Rachel was gradually getting better organized.

At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 104.8°W which put the center about 370 miles (595 km) south of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.   Rachel was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Playa, Perula, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

Hurricane Polo Brings Wind and Rain to Baja California

Hurricane Polo brought wind and rain to the southern part of Baja California on Monday night.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Polo was located at latitude 25.9°N and longitude 112.5°W which put the center about 75 miles (120 km) north of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.  Polo was moving toward the northeast at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (215 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the west coast of Baja California from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe, Mexico.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the east coast of Baja California from  Loreto to Bahia San Juan Bautista, Mexico.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bahia Kino to Huatabampito, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Eugenia to Punta Abreojos, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from ; Loreto to San Evaristo, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Huatabampito to Topolobampo, Mexico.

Hurricane Polo was still a major hurricane on Monday night.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Polo’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Hurricane Polo.

he Hurricane Intensify Index (HII) for Hurricane Polo is 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 13.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 33.9.  Hurricane Polo is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

An upper level trough over the western U.S. will steer Hurricane Polo toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipate track, the center of Hurricane Polo will move across the southern part of Baja California during the next few hours.  The center of Polo’s circulation could pass between Loreto and Santa Rosalia.

Hurricane Polo will bring strong winds and heavy rain to southern Baja California. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Hurricane Polo will be capable of causing major damage.

Hurricane Polo will weaken as it moves across the southern part of Baja California.  However, Polo could still be a hurricane when it reaches the west coast of Mexico.  The center of Hurricane Polo will make a landfall on the west coast of Mexico near Guaymas early on Tuesday.

Hurricane Polo will also bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Sonora.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations there as well.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Rachel was strengthening gradually.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located at latitude 14.3°N and longitude 102.5°W which put the center about 345 miles (555 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.   Rachel was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Playa, Perula, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

 

Hurricane Polo Nears Southern Baja California

Hurricane Polo moved nearer to the coast of southern Baja California on Sunday evening.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Polo was located at latitude 22.8°N and longitude 114.0°W which put the center about 175 miles (280 km) southwest of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.  Polo was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 951 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the west coast of Baja California from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe, Mexico.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the east coast of Baja California from  Loreto to Santa Rosalia, Mexico.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Guaymas to Huatabampito, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch  is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Eugenia to Punta Abreojos, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from ; Loreto to San Evaristo, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Santa Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Guaymas to Bahia Kino, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Huatabampito to Topolobampo, Mexico.

Hurricane Polo was still a major hurricane on Sunday evening.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was present at the center of Polo’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Polo.  Storms near the center of Polo generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure did not change much on Sunday.

The distribution of wind speeds in Hurricane Polo was fairly symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Polo’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Hurricane Polo.

The Hurricane Intensify Index (HII) for Hurricane Polo is 23.4. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 38.0.  Hurricane Polo is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Milton when Milton hit Florida in 2024.

Hurricane Polo will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Polo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, Polo will move under the southern part of an upper level trough that is near the West Coast of the U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Polo’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase on Monday.  Hurricane Polo will weaken during the next 24 hours because of more vertical wind shear.

The upper level trough near the West Coast of the U.S. will pull Hurricane Polo toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Polo will make landfall on the coast of southwest Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro on Monday afternoon.

Hurricane Polo will bring strong winds and heavy rain to southern Baja California. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Rachel formed south of Mexico.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located at latitude 12.9°N and longitude 99.8°W which put the center about 275 miles (445 km) south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.  Rachel was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Playa, Perula, Mexico.

Polo Prompts Hurricane Warning for Baja California

A risk posed by Hurricane Polo prompted the government of Mexico to issue a Hurricane Warning for a portion of the west coast of Baja California on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Polo was located at latitude 19.3°N and longitude 113.1°W which put the center about 325 miles (520 km) southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Polo was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to Sante Fe, Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Eugenia to Punta Abreojos, Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bahia San Juan Bautista to San Evaristo, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Eugenia to Punta Abreojos, Mexico.

Hurricane Polo weakened steadily on Saturday, but Polo was still a major hurricane on Saturday evening.  A circular eye was still present at the center of Polo’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Polo.  Storms near the center of Polo generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of more mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Saturday.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Polo increased on Saturday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Polo’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Hurricane Polo.

The Hurricane Intensify Index (HII) for Hurricane Polo is 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 37.0.  Hurricane Polo is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Milton when Milton hit Florida in 2024.

Hurricane Polo will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Polo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, Polo will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough that is near the West Coast of the U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Polo’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Hurricane Polo will continue to weaken on Sunday because of more vertical wind shear.

Hurricane Polo will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Polo toward the north during the next 24 hours.  The upper level trough that is near the West Coast of the U.S. will steer Polo toward the northeast on Monday.  Polo will reach southern Baja California on Monday.

Hurricane Polo will bring strong winds and heavy rain to southern Baja California.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, the upper level trough near the West Coast of the U.S. caused Hurricane Odalys to weaken on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Odalys was located at latitude 21.1°N and longitude 123.6°W which put the center about 885 miles (1425 km) west of the the southern tip of Baja California.  Odalys was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Lorena Intensifies to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Lorena intensified to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Tuesday night.  The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the coast of Baja California.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Lorena was located at latitude 21.9°N and longitude 111.1°W which put the center about 105 miles (165 km) southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Lorena was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for a portion of the coast from Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lucas to Santa Fe, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Abreojos, Mexico.

Former Tropical Storm Lorena intensified to a hurricane on Tuesday night.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped part of the way around the center of Lorena’s circulation.  A small eye appeared to be forming at the center of Hurricane Lorena.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Lorena’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Lorena generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Lorena was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Lorena’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Hurricane Lorena.

Hurricane Lorena will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Lorena will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the western part of the axis of an upper level ridge over Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Lorena will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Lorena could intensify rapidly at times on Wednesday.

Hurricane Lorena will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Lorena toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  Lorena is expected to move toward the north on Thursday.  On it anticipated track, Hurricane Lorena could approach the coast of Baja California between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia on Friday.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Kiko continued to churn toward the west.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Kiko was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 130.1°W which put the center about 1700 miles (2735 km) east Hilo Hawaii.  Kiko was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

 

Hurricane Hilary Brings Wind and Rain to Baja California

Hurricane Hilary brought wind and rain to Baja California on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Hilary was located at latitude 25.3°N and longitude 114.6°W which put it about 175 miles (280 km) south of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. Hilary was moving toward the north-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

Even though center of Hurricane Hilary was south of Punta Eugenia, Hilary brought strong winds and locally heavy rain to Baja California on Saturday night. A weather station in Loreto, Mexico reported a sustained wind speed of 58 m.p.h. (93 km/h) and a wind gust of 69 m.p.h. (111 km/h). There were reports of flash floods in Santa Rosalia, Mexico.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Quintin to Ensenada, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to Todos Santos, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to Guaymas, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the U.S. border with Mexico to the Point Mugu, California. The Tropical Storm Warning included San Diego. The Tropical Storm Warning also included Catalina Island. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Quintin, Mexico to the border with the U.S. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Guaymas to Huatabampito, Mexico.

Hurricane Hilary was weakening on Saturday night. There was no longer an eye visible on satellite images of Hurricane Hilary. The distribution of thunderstorms in Hilary was asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern half of Hilary’s circulation. Bands in the southern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The circulation around Hurricane Hilary was still large even though Hilary was weakening. Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Hilary’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 265 miles (425 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 13.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 18.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 32.6. Hurricane Hilary was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Matthew when Matthew hit South Carolina in 2016.

Hurricane Hilary will be moving into an environment that will be unfavorable for a hurricane during the next 24 hours. Hilary will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are colder than 26°C. It will move between an upper level ridge over Mexico and the south central U.S. and an upper level low west of California. The upper level ridge and upper level low will interact to produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Hilary’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. The combination of cooler water and more vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Hilary to weaken during the next 24 hours. In addition, much of the circulation in the eastern side of Hurricane Hilary will pass over Baja California. The mountains in Baja California will partially disrupt the flow of air around Hurricane Hilary.

The upper level ridge over the south central U.S. and the upper level low west of California will steer Hurricane Hilary toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Hilary will be near Punta Eugenia early Sunday morning. Hilary will continue to produce strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain in Baja California on Sunday. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Hilary could take a track similar to the one taken by Hurricane Nora in 1997. The center of Hilary will reach southern California by Sunday evening. Hilary will weaken to a tropical storm before it reaches southern California. Hilary will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern California. The heaviest rain is likely to fall where the wind force the air to rise over mountains. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches have been issued for parts of southern California, southern Nevada, southern Utah and western Arizona. Hilary could also bring strong winds to mountains in southern Nevada, southern Utah and western Arizona.

Hurricane Hilary Moves Toward Baja California

Hurricane Hilary was moving toward Baja California on Saturday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Hilary was located at latitude 21.5°N and longitude 113.4°W which put it about 490 miles (790 km) south-southeast of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. Hilary was moving toward the north-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 943 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Quintin to Ensenada, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to Guaymas, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning included Cabo San Lucas. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the U.S. border with Mexico to the Point Mugu, California. The Tropical Storm Warning included San Diego. The Tropical Storm Warning also included Catalina Island. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Quintin, Mexico to the border with the U.S. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Guaymas to Huatabampito, Mexico.

Hurricane Hilary was moving closer to Baja California on Saturday morning. An eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) was at the center of Hilary’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Hilary. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Hilary was large. Winds to hurricane force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Hilary’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 265 miles (425 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 19.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.3. Hurricane Hilary was capable of causing regional major damage.

Hurricane Hilary appeared to be starting to weaken on Saturday morning. Thunderstorms were weakening in bands in the western side of Hilary’s circulation. Some of the bands in the western part of Hilary consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Northerly winds in the western half of Hurricane Hilary were pulling cooler, drier air into that part of the hurricane.

Hurricane Hilary will be moving into an environment that will become unfavorable for a major hurricane during the next 24 hours. Hilary will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are cooler than 27°C. It will move between an upper level ridge over Mexico and the south central U.S. and an upper level low west of California. The upper level ridge and upper level low will interact to produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Hilary’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. The combination of cooler water and more vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Hilary to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The upper level ridge over the south central U.S. and the upper level low west of California will steer Hurricane Hilary toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Hilary will approach Punta Eugenia on Saturday night. Hilary will bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Baja California. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Hilary will reach southern California on Sunday. Hilary is likely to weaken to a tropical storm before it reaches southern California. Hilary bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern California. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches have been issued for parts of southern California, southern Nevada, southern Utah and western Arizona. Hilary could also bring strong winds to mountains in southern Nevada, southern Utah and western Arizona.

Hilary Prompts Hurricane Warning for Baja, Tropical Storm Watch for Southern California

The potential threat from Hurricane Hilary prompted the issuance of a Hurricane Warning for part of Baja California and a Tropical Storm Watch for Southern California on Friday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Hilary was located at latitude 17.9°N and longitude 111.4°W which put it about 360 miles (575 km) south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Hilary was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 170 m.p.h. (280 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 939 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Eugenia to Ensenada, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to Loreto, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning includes Cabo San Lucas. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the U.S. border with Mexico to the Orange/Los Angeles County Line. The Tropical Storm Watch included Catalina Island. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Ensenada, Mexico to the border with the U.S. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Loreto to Huatabampito, Mexico.

Hurricane Hilary continued to intensify on Friday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (30 km) was at the center of Hilary’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Hilary. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Hilary was large. Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Hilary’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 290 miles (465 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 29.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 46.8. Hurricane Hilary was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Ida when Ida hit Louisiana in 2021.

Hurricane Hilary will move through an environment favorable for a major hurricane during the next 24 hours. Hilary will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Hilary could intensify during the next 24 hours. However, if the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls could form. If concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Hilary to weaken.

Hurricane Hilary will move around the western part of a high pressure system over Mexico and the south central U.S. The high pressure system will steer Hilary toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Hilary will move toward Baja California. Hilary will move more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system during the weekend. The center of Hurricane Hilary will be near Punta Eugenia on Sunday morning. Hurricane Hilary will start to affect Baja California on Saturday. Hilary will bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Baja California. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

The center of Hurricane Hilary is likely to approach southern California on Sunday night. There is cooler water west of the northern part of Baja California. Hilary will be weakening when it approaches southern California. Hilary bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern California. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches have been issued for parts of southern California, southern Nevada, southern Utah and western Arizona.

Hilary Rapidly Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Hilary rapidly intensified to a major hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Thursday evening. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Hilary was located at latitude 16.7°N and longitude 110.0°W which put it about 430 miles (690 km) south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Hilary was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Eugenia to Punta Abreojos, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lazaro to Los Barriles, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning included Cabo San Lucas. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the portions of the coast from Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Eugenia, Mexico and from Los Barriles to Bahia San Juan Bautista, Mexico.

Hurricane Hilary rapidly intensified to a major hurricane on Thursday. An eye with a diameter of 23 miles (37 km) was at the center of Hilary’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Hilary. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Hilary was large. Winds to hurricane force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Hilary’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 290 miles (465 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 20.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 43.9.

Hurricane Hilary will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Hilary will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Hilary is likely to continue to intensify during the next 24 hours. Hilary could intensify rapidly at times on Friday.

Hurricane Hilary will move around the western part of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Hilary toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Hilary will move toward Baja California. Hilary will move more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system during the weekend. Hurricane Hilary will start to affect Baja California during the weekend.

Elsewhere, former Tropical Storm Greg and former Tropical Storm Fernanda both weakened to tropical depressions. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Greg was located at latitude 12.0°N and longitude 158.5°W which put it about 645 miles (1035 km) south of Honolulu, Hawaii. Greg was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Fernanda was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 133.8°W which put it about 1615 miles (2605 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Fernanda was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Hurricane Kay Hits Baja California

Hurricane Kay hit Baja California on Thursday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Kay was located at latitude 27.1°N and longitude 114.3°W which put it about 70 miles (110 km) southeast of Punte Eugenia, Mexico. Kay was moving toward the north-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to San Jose De Las Palomas, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Cortes to Punta Abreojos, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from San Jose De Las Palomas, Mexico to the border with the U.S. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to Puerto Cortes, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from San Evaristo to Guaymas, Mexico.

The center of Hurricane Kay made landfall on the west coast of Baja California southeast of Punta Eugenia on Thursday afternoon. Kay weakened slowly as it approached the west coast of Baja California. Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Hurricane Kay. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 220 miles (350 km) from the center of Kay’s circulation. Bands in the eastern side of Hurricane Kay dropped heavy rain over parts of Baja California and there were reports of flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Kay will continue to move toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. The center of Hurricane Kay will be over land during the next few hours before it moves back over water when the center gets north of Punta Eugenia. Kay will weaken steadily during the next 24 hours. The eastern half of Kay’s circulation will be flowing over Baja California, where the mountains will disrupt the flow of air. Hurricane Kay will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 23˚C. Kay will continue to produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain over Baja California as it moves northwards.

Clouds in the rainbands will not rise as high into the atmosphere when Hurricane Kay weakens. Kay will be steered by winds closer to the surface on Friday. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will steer Kay more toward the northwest on Friday. On its anticipated track, the center of Kay will be southeast of San Diego, California on Friday night. Kay could be a tropical storm when it is southeast of San Diego. Bands in the eastern side of Kay could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern California and western Arizona. A High Wind Watch is in effect for parts of southern California. Flood Watches are in effect for parts of southern California and western Arizona.