Tag Archives: Hurricane Hilary

Hurricane Hilary Brings Wind and Rain to Baja California

Hurricane Hilary brought wind and rain to Baja California on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Hilary was located at latitude 25.3°N and longitude 114.6°W which put it about 175 miles (280 km) south of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. Hilary was moving toward the north-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

Even though center of Hurricane Hilary was south of Punta Eugenia, Hilary brought strong winds and locally heavy rain to Baja California on Saturday night. A weather station in Loreto, Mexico reported a sustained wind speed of 58 m.p.h. (93 km/h) and a wind gust of 69 m.p.h. (111 km/h). There were reports of flash floods in Santa Rosalia, Mexico.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Quintin to Ensenada, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to Todos Santos, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to Guaymas, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the U.S. border with Mexico to the Point Mugu, California. The Tropical Storm Warning included San Diego. The Tropical Storm Warning also included Catalina Island. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Quintin, Mexico to the border with the U.S. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Guaymas to Huatabampito, Mexico.

Hurricane Hilary was weakening on Saturday night. There was no longer an eye visible on satellite images of Hurricane Hilary. The distribution of thunderstorms in Hilary was asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern half of Hilary’s circulation. Bands in the southern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The circulation around Hurricane Hilary was still large even though Hilary was weakening. Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Hilary’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 265 miles (425 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 13.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 18.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 32.6. Hurricane Hilary was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Matthew when Matthew hit South Carolina in 2016.

Hurricane Hilary will be moving into an environment that will be unfavorable for a hurricane during the next 24 hours. Hilary will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are colder than 26°C. It will move between an upper level ridge over Mexico and the south central U.S. and an upper level low west of California. The upper level ridge and upper level low will interact to produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Hilary’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. The combination of cooler water and more vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Hilary to weaken during the next 24 hours. In addition, much of the circulation in the eastern side of Hurricane Hilary will pass over Baja California. The mountains in Baja California will partially disrupt the flow of air around Hurricane Hilary.

The upper level ridge over the south central U.S. and the upper level low west of California will steer Hurricane Hilary toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Hilary will be near Punta Eugenia early Sunday morning. Hilary will continue to produce strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain in Baja California on Sunday. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Hilary could take a track similar to the one taken by Hurricane Nora in 1997. The center of Hilary will reach southern California by Sunday evening. Hilary will weaken to a tropical storm before it reaches southern California. Hilary will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern California. The heaviest rain is likely to fall where the wind force the air to rise over mountains. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches have been issued for parts of southern California, southern Nevada, southern Utah and western Arizona. Hilary could also bring strong winds to mountains in southern Nevada, southern Utah and western Arizona.

Hurricane Hilary Moves Toward Baja California

Hurricane Hilary was moving toward Baja California on Saturday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Hilary was located at latitude 21.5°N and longitude 113.4°W which put it about 490 miles (790 km) south-southeast of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. Hilary was moving toward the north-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 943 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Quintin to Ensenada, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to Guaymas, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning included Cabo San Lucas. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the U.S. border with Mexico to the Point Mugu, California. The Tropical Storm Warning included San Diego. The Tropical Storm Warning also included Catalina Island. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Quintin, Mexico to the border with the U.S. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Guaymas to Huatabampito, Mexico.

Hurricane Hilary was moving closer to Baja California on Saturday morning. An eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) was at the center of Hilary’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Hilary. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Hilary was large. Winds to hurricane force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Hilary’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 265 miles (425 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 19.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.3. Hurricane Hilary was capable of causing regional major damage.

Hurricane Hilary appeared to be starting to weaken on Saturday morning. Thunderstorms were weakening in bands in the western side of Hilary’s circulation. Some of the bands in the western part of Hilary consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Northerly winds in the western half of Hurricane Hilary were pulling cooler, drier air into that part of the hurricane.

Hurricane Hilary will be moving into an environment that will become unfavorable for a major hurricane during the next 24 hours. Hilary will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are cooler than 27°C. It will move between an upper level ridge over Mexico and the south central U.S. and an upper level low west of California. The upper level ridge and upper level low will interact to produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Hilary’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. The combination of cooler water and more vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Hilary to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The upper level ridge over the south central U.S. and the upper level low west of California will steer Hurricane Hilary toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Hilary will approach Punta Eugenia on Saturday night. Hilary will bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Baja California. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Hilary will reach southern California on Sunday. Hilary is likely to weaken to a tropical storm before it reaches southern California. Hilary bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern California. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches have been issued for parts of southern California, southern Nevada, southern Utah and western Arizona. Hilary could also bring strong winds to mountains in southern Nevada, southern Utah and western Arizona.

Hilary Prompts Hurricane Warning for Baja, Tropical Storm Watch for Southern California

The potential threat from Hurricane Hilary prompted the issuance of a Hurricane Warning for part of Baja California and a Tropical Storm Watch for Southern California on Friday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Hilary was located at latitude 17.9°N and longitude 111.4°W which put it about 360 miles (575 km) south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Hilary was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 170 m.p.h. (280 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 939 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Eugenia to Ensenada, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to Loreto, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning includes Cabo San Lucas. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the U.S. border with Mexico to the Orange/Los Angeles County Line. The Tropical Storm Watch included Catalina Island. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Ensenada, Mexico to the border with the U.S. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Loreto to Huatabampito, Mexico.

Hurricane Hilary continued to intensify on Friday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (30 km) was at the center of Hilary’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Hilary. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Hilary was large. Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Hilary’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 290 miles (465 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 29.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 46.8. Hurricane Hilary was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Ida when Ida hit Louisiana in 2021.

Hurricane Hilary will move through an environment favorable for a major hurricane during the next 24 hours. Hilary will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Hilary could intensify during the next 24 hours. However, if the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls could form. If concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Hilary to weaken.

Hurricane Hilary will move around the western part of a high pressure system over Mexico and the south central U.S. The high pressure system will steer Hilary toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Hilary will move toward Baja California. Hilary will move more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system during the weekend. The center of Hurricane Hilary will be near Punta Eugenia on Sunday morning. Hurricane Hilary will start to affect Baja California on Saturday. Hilary will bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Baja California. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

The center of Hurricane Hilary is likely to approach southern California on Sunday night. There is cooler water west of the northern part of Baja California. Hilary will be weakening when it approaches southern California. Hilary bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern California. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches have been issued for parts of southern California, southern Nevada, southern Utah and western Arizona.

Hilary Rapidly Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Hilary rapidly intensified to a major hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Thursday evening. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Hilary was located at latitude 16.7°N and longitude 110.0°W which put it about 430 miles (690 km) south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Hilary was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Eugenia to Punta Abreojos, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lazaro to Los Barriles, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning included Cabo San Lucas. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the portions of the coast from Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Eugenia, Mexico and from Los Barriles to Bahia San Juan Bautista, Mexico.

Hurricane Hilary rapidly intensified to a major hurricane on Thursday. An eye with a diameter of 23 miles (37 km) was at the center of Hilary’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Hilary. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Hilary was large. Winds to hurricane force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Hilary’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 290 miles (465 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 20.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 43.9.

Hurricane Hilary will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Hilary will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Hilary is likely to continue to intensify during the next 24 hours. Hilary could intensify rapidly at times on Friday.

Hurricane Hilary will move around the western part of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Hilary toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Hilary will move toward Baja California. Hilary will move more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system during the weekend. Hurricane Hilary will start to affect Baja California during the weekend.

Elsewhere, former Tropical Storm Greg and former Tropical Storm Fernanda both weakened to tropical depressions. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Greg was located at latitude 12.0°N and longitude 158.5°W which put it about 645 miles (1035 km) south of Honolulu, Hawaii. Greg was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Fernanda was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 133.8°W which put it about 1615 miles (2605 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Fernanda was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Hilary Rapidly Intensifies to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Hilary rapidly intensified to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Thursday morning. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the southern part of Baja California. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Hilary was located at latitude 15.2°N and longitude 107.1°W which put it about 320 miles (515 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Hilary was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast of Baja California from Cabo San Lazaro to San Evaristo, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Watch included Cabo San Lucas.

Former Tropical Storm Hilary rapidly intensified to a hurricane on Thursday morning. An eye was visible on satellite images at the center of Hurricane Hilary. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Hilary. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Hilary was large. Winds to hurricane force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Hilary’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 275 miles (445 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Hilary will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Hilary will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Hilary will intensify during the next 24 hours. Hilary could intensify rapidly at times. Hurricane Hilary is likely to strengthen to a major hurricane on Friday.

Hurricane Hilary will move around the western part of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Hilary toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Hilary will move toward Baja California. Hilary will move more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system during the weekend. Hurricane Hilary will start to affect Baja California during the weekend.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Greg was passing south of Hawaii and Tropical Storm Fernanda continued to weaken. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Greg was located at latitude 12.1°N and longitude 154.5°W which put it about 675 miles (1085 km) south-southeast of Honolulu, Hawaii. Greg was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Fernanda was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 130.8°W which put it about 1425 miles (2290 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Fernanda was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Hurricanes Hilary and Irwin Churn Over Eastern Pacific

Hurricanes Hilary and Irwin continued to churn over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Hilary was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 109.8°W which put it about 475 miles (765 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Hilary was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Irwin was located at latitude 16.1°N and longitude 120.9°W which put it about 855 miles (1375 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Irwin was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Hilary is the larger and stronger of the two hurricanes.  Hurricane Hilary has a small circular eye surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  A rainband spirals around the western and southern sides of the core of the circulation.  Thunderstorms in the core are generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping out mass in all directions.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 90 miles (145 km) from the center.

Hurricane Irwin has a smaller circulation.  Irwin has a small eye.  Most of the thunderstorms are occurring in the northwestern quadrant of the circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out only about 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Hilary is moving through a more favorable environment.  Hilary is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear near Hilary.  Hurricane Irwin is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  An upper level low northwest of Irwin appears to be producing westerly winds which are undercutting the upper level divergence generated by thunderstorms near the core of the hurricane.  Some drier air also seems to wrapping around the eastern side of the circulation.

Hurricane Hilary is moving faster than Hurricane Irwin and Hilary is getting closer to Irwin.  The two hurricanes are expected to interact later this week.  Since Hilary is bigger and stronger than Irwin, Hilary is forecast to become the dominant circulation.  Hurricane Hilary is expected to continue to move in west-northwesterly direction.  When Hilary gets closer to Hurricane Irwin, Irwin is forecast to begin to revolve around Hilary in an interaction called the Fujiwhara effect.  On their anticipated tracks Hurricanes Hilary and Irwin are expected to remain south of the southern tip of Baja California.