Tag Archives: 09E

Tropical Storm Iselle Weakens

Tropical Storm Iselle weakened on Tuesday as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Baja California.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was located at latitude 21.3°N and longitude 122.5°W which put the center about 815 miles (1310 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Iselle was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Storm Iselle weakened on Tuesday.  An upper level trough west of the West Coast of the U.S. was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Iselle’s circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear was causing Tropical Storm Iselle to weaken.

The vertical wind shear was also causing the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Iselle to be asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Iselle’s circulation.  Bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Iselle consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Iselle generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Tuesday.

The effects of the vertical wind shear also caused the distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Iselle to be asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 230 miles (370 km) in the eastern side of Iselle’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) in the western side of Tropical Storm Iselle.

Tropical Storm Iselle will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Iselle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will continue to move under the southern part of an upper level trough that is west of the West Coast of the U.S.  The upper level trough will continue to produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Iselle’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  In addition, Iselle will move into a mass of drier air that is west of Baja California.  Tropical Storm Iselle will  continue to weaken on Wednesday because of the effects of the vertical wind shear and the drier air.

Tropical Storm Iselle will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Iselle toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipate track, Tropical Storm Iselle will move farther away from Baja California.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Lala continued to weaken slowly far to the northwest of Hawaii.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Lala was located at latitude 35.2°N and longitude 177.6°W which put the center about 470 miles (760 km) north of Kure Atoll.  Lala was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Tropical Storm Iselle Spins Southwest of Baja California

Tropical Storm Iselle was spinning southwest of Baja California on Monday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was located at latitude 20.1°N and longitude 118.6°W which put the center about 590 miles (950 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Iselle was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Storm Iselle strengthened on Monday.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of Iselle’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were also revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Iselle.  Storms near the center of Iselle generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Wind to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Iselle.

Tropical Storm Iselle will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Iselle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level trough that is west of the West Coast of the U.S  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Iselle’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase on Tuesday.  In addition, Iselle will move into a mass of drier air that is west of Baja California.  Tropical Storm Iselle is likely to start to weaken on Tuesday because of the effects of the increased vertical wind shear and the drier air.

Tropical Storm Iselle will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Iselle toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipate track, Tropical Storm Iselle will move farther away from Baja California.

Elsewhere, former Tropical Storm Moke weakened to a tropical depression south of Hawaii and Tropical Storm Lala weakened gradually far to the northwest of Hawaii.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Moke was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 163.0°W which put the center about 435 miles (695 km) east of Johnston Island.  Moke was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Lala was located at latitude 34.3°N and longitude 175.6°W which put the center about 435 miles (705 km) north-northeast of Kure Atoll.  Lala was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Tropical Storm Iselle Forms South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Iselle formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Sunday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 114.2°W which put the center about 595 miles (955 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Iselle was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California strengthened on Sunday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Iselle.

The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Iselle was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern part of Iselle’s circulation.  Bands in the northern side of Tropical Storm Iselle consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Iselle generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and west of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Wind to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Iselle.

Tropical Storm Iselle will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Iselle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge that is south of Baja California.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Iselle’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Estelle could intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Iselle will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Iselle toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipate track, Tropical Storm Iselle will remain far to the southwest of Baja California.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Moke was passing south of the Big Island of Hawaii and Tropical Storm Lala was spinning far to the northwest of Hawaii.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Moke was located at latitude 15.2°N and longitude 155.0°W which put the center about 310 miles (500 km) south of Hilo, Hawaii. Moke was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Lala was located at latitude 32.1°N and longitude 173.9°W which put the center about 365 miles (590 km) northeast of Kure Atoll.  Lala was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Henriette Rapidly Intensifies to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Henriette rapidly intensified to a hurricane northeast of Hawaii on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Henriette was located at latitude 25.7°N and longitude 152.5°W which put the center about 455 miles (735 km) northeast of Honolulu, Hawaii.  Henriette was moving toward the northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Henriette rapidly intensified to a hurricane northeast of Hawaii on Sunday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Henriette’s circulation.  A circular eye with a diameter of 15 miles (24 km) formed at the center of Hurricane Henriette.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that rings of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Henriette’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Henriette generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Henriette was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Henriette’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Hurricane Henriette.

Hurricane Henriette will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Henriette will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level trough that is east of Hawaii.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the trough and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Henriette will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Henriette could continue to intensify rapidly.

Hurricane Henriette will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the central North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Henriette toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Henriette will pass well to the north of Hawaii.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Ivo continued to churn west of Baja California. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located at latitude 22.1°N and longitude 117.2°W which put the center about 470 miles (755 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Ivo was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Henriette Passes Northeast of Hawaii

Tropical Storm Henriette was passing northeast of Hawaii on Sunday.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Henriette was located at latitude 23.8°N and longitude 150.3°W which put the center about 420 miles (675 km) northeast Hilo, Hawaii.  Henriette was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Henriette strengthened back to a tropical storm as it moved northeast of Hawaii on Sunday.  More thunderstorms former near the center of Henriette’s circulation.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped much of the way around the center of Tropical Storm Henriette.  A clear area was forming at the center of Henriette.  Storms near the center of Henriette generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Henriette was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Henriette’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Henriette will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Henriette will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level trough that is east of Hawaii.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the trough and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Henriette will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Henriette will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Henriette toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Henriette will pass well to the north of Hawaii.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Ivo was weakening southwest of Baja California.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located at latitude 21.5°N and longitude 114.9°W which put the center about 335 miles (535 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Ivo was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Ivo Moves South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Ivo moved south of Baja California on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located at latitude 20.4°N and longitude 111.2°W which put the center about 190 miles (310 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Ivo was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Storm Ivo exhibited much more organization on Friday after it moved south of Baja California.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western side of the center of Ivo’s circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Ivo.  Storms near the center of Ivo generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Ivo was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Ivo’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Ivo will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ivo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ivo’s circulation.  However, the winds in the lower atmosphere will also blow from the east.  Since the winds in the upper and lower levels of the atmosphere will blow from the same direction, there will be less vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Ivo is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.  Ivo could strengthen to a hurricane on Saturday.  Ivo will move over cooler water on Sunday which will cause it to weaken.

Tropical Storm Ivo will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over Mexico and the eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Ivo toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Ivo will move away from Baja California during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Ivo Moves Southeast of Baja California

Tropical Storm Ivo moved southeast of Baja California on Thursday evening.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located at latitude 19.7°N and longitude 107.3°W which put the center about 275 miles (445 km) southeast of the southern tip of Baja California.  Ivo was moving toward the northwest at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

Even though Tropical Storm Ivo strengthened on Thursday, its structure did not change a lot.  Thunderstorms were still forming near the center of Ivo’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the southern and eastern parts of Tropical Storm Ivo.  Bands in the northern and western parts of Ivo’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Ivo was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Ivo’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Ivo will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ivo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge over Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ivo’s circulation.  However, the winds in the lower atmosphere will also blow from the east.  Since the winds in the upper and lower levels of the atmosphere will blow from the same direction, there will be less vertical wind shear.  Even though Tropical Storm Ivo will move through an environment most favorable for intensification, Ivo may not intensify a lot on Friday as long as it continues to move quickly toward the west-northwest.  If Tropical Storm Ivo starts to move more slowly, then it could intensify again.

Tropical Storm Ivo will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Ivo toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Ivo will move south of Baja California on Friday.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Henriette weakened slowly as it approached the Central Pacific.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Henriette was located at latitude 19.1°N and longitude 138.4°W which put the center about 1090 miles (1750 km) east Hilo, Hawaii.  Henriette was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Tropical Storm Ivo Forms South of Mexico

Tropical Storm Ivo formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Wednesday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located at latitude 14.2°N and longitude 99.1°W which put the center about 195 miles (310 km) south-southeast Acapulco, Mexico.  Ivo was moving toward the west-northwest at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico strengthened on Wednesday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Ivo.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Ivo organized quickly on Wednesday afternoon.  Thunderstorms developed near the center of Ivo’s circulation.  Thunderstorms also formed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Ivo.  Storms near the center of Ivo began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Ivo was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the northern side of Ivo’s circulation.  The winds in the southern side of Tropical Storm Ivo were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Ivo will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ivo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge over Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ivo’s circulation.  However, the winds in the lower atmosphere will also blow from the east.  Since the winds in the upper and lower levels of the atmosphere will blow from the same direction, there will be less vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Ivo is likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Ivo will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Ivo toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Ivo will move parallel to the coast of southern Mexico.

Bands in the northern side of Ivo’s circulation could drop heavy rain on parts of southern Mexico.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Henriette continued to churn toward the Central Pacific.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Henriette was located at latitude 18.1°N and longitude 131.3°W which put the center about 1555 miles (2505 km) east Hilo, Hawaii.  Henriette was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Ileana Makes Landfall on West Coast of Mexico

The center of Tropical Storm Ileana made landfall on the west coast of Mexico south of Los Mochis on Saturday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located at latitude 25.5°N and longitude 108.9°W which put the center about 20 miles (30 km) south-southeast of Los Mochis, Mexico.  Ileana was moving toward the north at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Altata to Huatabampito, Mexico.

The center of Tropical Storm Ileana made landfall on the west coast of Mexico near Topolobampo.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern and eastern sides of the center of Ileana’s circulation.   Bands in the southern and western parts of Tropical Storm Ileana consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The strongest winds were occurring in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Ileana.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the eastern side of Ileana’s circulation.  The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Ileana were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Ileana will move around the western side of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Ileana toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Ileana will move near the west coast of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Ileana will weaken to a tropical depression this evening as it moves a little farther inland.  Ileana will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Sinaloa.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Ileana Brings Wind and Rain to Southern Baja California

Tropical Storm Ileana brought gusty winds and rain to the southern part of Baja California on Friday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located at latitude 22.7°N and longitude 109.4°W which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) east-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.   Ileana was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).   The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (9 km/h).   The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Santa Fe to San Evaristo, Mexico.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes Cabo San Lucas and La Paz.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from San Evaristo to Loreto, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Topolobampo to Huatabampito, Mexico.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Ileana was not particularly well organized on Friday afternoon.  The northwestern part of Illeana’s circulation was passing over the southern end of Baja California.  The flow of air over land may have been disrupting the circulation.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Ileana.  Easterly winds pushing air up slopes in southern Baja California may have been contributing to the development of thunderstorms in that part of Ileana’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Ileana generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Ileana was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the eastern side of Ileana’s circulation.  The winds in the western part of Tropical Storm Ileana were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Ileana will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ileana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level trough over the Southwest U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ileana’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Tropical Storm Ileana is likely to weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.  The center of Ileana’s circulation could move across the southeastern tip of Baja California, which would also cause Tropical Storm Ileana to weaken.

Tropical Storm Ileana will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Ileana toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Ileana will move across the southeastern tip of Baja California and over the southern Gulf of California.

Tropical Storm Ileana will continue to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the southern part of Baja California during the next 24 hours.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.