Tag Archives: 09E

Henriette Rapidly Intensifies to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Henriette rapidly intensified to a hurricane northeast of Hawaii on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Henriette was located at latitude 25.7°N and longitude 152.5°W which put the center about 455 miles (735 km) northeast of Honolulu, Hawaii.  Henriette was moving toward the northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Henriette rapidly intensified to a hurricane northeast of Hawaii on Sunday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Henriette’s circulation.  A circular eye with a diameter of 15 miles (24 km) formed at the center of Hurricane Henriette.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that rings of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Henriette’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Henriette generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Henriette was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Henriette’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Hurricane Henriette.

Hurricane Henriette will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Henriette will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level trough that is east of Hawaii.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the trough and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Henriette will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Henriette could continue to intensify rapidly.

Hurricane Henriette will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the central North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Henriette toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Henriette will pass well to the north of Hawaii.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Ivo continued to churn west of Baja California. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located at latitude 22.1°N and longitude 117.2°W which put the center about 470 miles (755 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Ivo was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Henriette Passes Northeast of Hawaii

Tropical Storm Henriette was passing northeast of Hawaii on Sunday.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Henriette was located at latitude 23.8°N and longitude 150.3°W which put the center about 420 miles (675 km) northeast Hilo, Hawaii.  Henriette was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Henriette strengthened back to a tropical storm as it moved northeast of Hawaii on Sunday.  More thunderstorms former near the center of Henriette’s circulation.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped much of the way around the center of Tropical Storm Henriette.  A clear area was forming at the center of Henriette.  Storms near the center of Henriette generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Henriette was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Henriette’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Henriette will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Henriette will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level trough that is east of Hawaii.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the trough and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Henriette will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Henriette will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Henriette toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Henriette will pass well to the north of Hawaii.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Ivo was weakening southwest of Baja California.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located at latitude 21.5°N and longitude 114.9°W which put the center about 335 miles (535 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Ivo was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Ivo Moves South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Ivo moved south of Baja California on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located at latitude 20.4°N and longitude 111.2°W which put the center about 190 miles (310 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Ivo was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Storm Ivo exhibited much more organization on Friday after it moved south of Baja California.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western side of the center of Ivo’s circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Ivo.  Storms near the center of Ivo generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Ivo was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Ivo’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Ivo will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ivo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ivo’s circulation.  However, the winds in the lower atmosphere will also blow from the east.  Since the winds in the upper and lower levels of the atmosphere will blow from the same direction, there will be less vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Ivo is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.  Ivo could strengthen to a hurricane on Saturday.  Ivo will move over cooler water on Sunday which will cause it to weaken.

Tropical Storm Ivo will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over Mexico and the eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Ivo toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Ivo will move away from Baja California during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Ivo Moves Southeast of Baja California

Tropical Storm Ivo moved southeast of Baja California on Thursday evening.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located at latitude 19.7°N and longitude 107.3°W which put the center about 275 miles (445 km) southeast of the southern tip of Baja California.  Ivo was moving toward the northwest at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

Even though Tropical Storm Ivo strengthened on Thursday, its structure did not change a lot.  Thunderstorms were still forming near the center of Ivo’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the southern and eastern parts of Tropical Storm Ivo.  Bands in the northern and western parts of Ivo’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Ivo was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Ivo’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Ivo will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ivo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge over Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ivo’s circulation.  However, the winds in the lower atmosphere will also blow from the east.  Since the winds in the upper and lower levels of the atmosphere will blow from the same direction, there will be less vertical wind shear.  Even though Tropical Storm Ivo will move through an environment most favorable for intensification, Ivo may not intensify a lot on Friday as long as it continues to move quickly toward the west-northwest.  If Tropical Storm Ivo starts to move more slowly, then it could intensify again.

Tropical Storm Ivo will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Ivo toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Ivo will move south of Baja California on Friday.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Henriette weakened slowly as it approached the Central Pacific.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Henriette was located at latitude 19.1°N and longitude 138.4°W which put the center about 1090 miles (1750 km) east Hilo, Hawaii.  Henriette was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Tropical Storm Ivo Forms South of Mexico

Tropical Storm Ivo formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Wednesday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located at latitude 14.2°N and longitude 99.1°W which put the center about 195 miles (310 km) south-southeast Acapulco, Mexico.  Ivo was moving toward the west-northwest at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico strengthened on Wednesday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Ivo.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Ivo organized quickly on Wednesday afternoon.  Thunderstorms developed near the center of Ivo’s circulation.  Thunderstorms also formed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Ivo.  Storms near the center of Ivo began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Ivo was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the northern side of Ivo’s circulation.  The winds in the southern side of Tropical Storm Ivo were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Ivo will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ivo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge over Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ivo’s circulation.  However, the winds in the lower atmosphere will also blow from the east.  Since the winds in the upper and lower levels of the atmosphere will blow from the same direction, there will be less vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Ivo is likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Ivo will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Ivo toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Ivo will move parallel to the coast of southern Mexico.

Bands in the northern side of Ivo’s circulation could drop heavy rain on parts of southern Mexico.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Henriette continued to churn toward the Central Pacific.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Henriette was located at latitude 18.1°N and longitude 131.3°W which put the center about 1555 miles (2505 km) east Hilo, Hawaii.  Henriette was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Ileana Makes Landfall on West Coast of Mexico

The center of Tropical Storm Ileana made landfall on the west coast of Mexico south of Los Mochis on Saturday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located at latitude 25.5°N and longitude 108.9°W which put the center about 20 miles (30 km) south-southeast of Los Mochis, Mexico.  Ileana was moving toward the north at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Altata to Huatabampito, Mexico.

The center of Tropical Storm Ileana made landfall on the west coast of Mexico near Topolobampo.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern and eastern sides of the center of Ileana’s circulation.   Bands in the southern and western parts of Tropical Storm Ileana consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The strongest winds were occurring in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Ileana.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the eastern side of Ileana’s circulation.  The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Ileana were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Ileana will move around the western side of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Ileana toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Ileana will move near the west coast of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Ileana will weaken to a tropical depression this evening as it moves a little farther inland.  Ileana will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Sinaloa.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Ileana Brings Wind and Rain to Southern Baja California

Tropical Storm Ileana brought gusty winds and rain to the southern part of Baja California on Friday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located at latitude 22.7°N and longitude 109.4°W which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) east-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.   Ileana was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).   The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (9 km/h).   The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Santa Fe to San Evaristo, Mexico.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes Cabo San Lucas and La Paz.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from San Evaristo to Loreto, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Topolobampo to Huatabampito, Mexico.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Ileana was not particularly well organized on Friday afternoon.  The northwestern part of Illeana’s circulation was passing over the southern end of Baja California.  The flow of air over land may have been disrupting the circulation.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Ileana.  Easterly winds pushing air up slopes in southern Baja California may have been contributing to the development of thunderstorms in that part of Ileana’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Ileana generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Ileana was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the eastern side of Ileana’s circulation.  The winds in the western part of Tropical Storm Ileana were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Ileana will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ileana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level trough over the Southwest U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ileana’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Tropical Storm Ileana is likely to weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.  The center of Ileana’s circulation could move across the southeastern tip of Baja California, which would also cause Tropical Storm Ileana to weaken.

Tropical Storm Ileana will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Ileana toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Ileana will move across the southeastern tip of Baja California and over the southern Gulf of California.

Tropical Storm Ileana will continue to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the southern part of Baja California during the next 24 hours.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

 

Tropical Storm Ileana Forms South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Ileana formed south of Baja California on Thursday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located at latitude 19.9°N and longitude 108.0°W which put the center about 240 miles (385 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Ileana was moving toward the north-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Santa Fe to San Evaristo, Mexico.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes Cabo San Lucas and La Paz.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from San Evaristo to Loreto, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Topolobampo to Huatabampito, Mexico.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California strengthened on Thursday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Ileana.  More thunderstorms were developing near the center of Ileana’s circulation.  However, the distribution of theunderstorms in Tropical Storm Ileana was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of Ileana’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern side of Ileana consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Ileana was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Ileana’s circulation.  The winds in the other parts of Ileana were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Ileana will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ileana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ileana’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Ileana is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Ileana will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Ileana toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Ileana will reach the southern end of Baja California on Friday morning.

Tropical Storm Ileana will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the southern part of Baja California.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Hilary Drops Heavy Rain on Southern California

Tropical Storm Hilary dropped heavy rain over parts of southern California on Sunday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Hilary was located at latitude 31.3°N and longitude 116.1°W which put it about 115 miles (185 km) south-southeast of San Diego, California. Hilary was moving toward the north at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the U.S. border with Mexico to the Point Mugu, California. The Tropical Storm Warning included San Diego. The Tropical Storm Warning also included Catalina Island. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Eugenia, Mexico to the border with the U.S. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bahia San Bautista to Guaymas, Mexico.

Former Hurricane Hilary weakened to a tropical storm as the center of Hilary moved over the northern part of Baja California. Bands in the northern part of Hilary’s circulation brought gusty winds to parts of southern California and Arizona. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 230 miles (370 km) from the center of Hilary’s circulation. A weather station at the Imperial, California airport reported a sustained wind speed of 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 61 m.p.h. (98 km/h). A weather station in Yuma, Arizona reported at sustained wind speed of 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and a wind gust of 59 m.p.h. (95 km/h).

The circulation around the northern side of Tropical Storm Hilary interacted with an upper level low west of California to drop heavy rain over parts of southern California. Weather stations in Carlsbad, Ramona, Los Angeles, Riverside, Big Bear, Borrego, Palmdale, Edwards Air Force Base, and Gray Butte, California were all reporting heavy rain at 7:00 p.m. EDT.

The upper low west of California will pull Tropical Storm Hilary quickly to the north during the next 24 hours. The center of Hilary’s circulation will pass east of San Diego on Sunday evening. Tropical Storm Hilary continue to weaken as it moves inland over the Southwest U.S. The circulation of Hilary will move over Nevada on Monday. The upper and lower parts of Hilary’s circulation could decouple because of strong vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Hilary will continue to produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain during the next 24 hours. The heaviest rain is likely to fall where the wind forces the air to rise over mountains. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches have been issued for parts of southern California, southern Nevada, southern Utah and western Arizona. Hilary could also bring strong winds to mountains in southern Nevada, southern Utah and western Arizona.

Hurricane Hilary Brings Wind and Rain to Baja California

Hurricane Hilary brought wind and rain to Baja California on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Hilary was located at latitude 25.3°N and longitude 114.6°W which put it about 175 miles (280 km) south of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. Hilary was moving toward the north-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

Even though center of Hurricane Hilary was south of Punta Eugenia, Hilary brought strong winds and locally heavy rain to Baja California on Saturday night. A weather station in Loreto, Mexico reported a sustained wind speed of 58 m.p.h. (93 km/h) and a wind gust of 69 m.p.h. (111 km/h). There were reports of flash floods in Santa Rosalia, Mexico.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Quintin to Ensenada, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to Todos Santos, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to Guaymas, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the U.S. border with Mexico to the Point Mugu, California. The Tropical Storm Warning included San Diego. The Tropical Storm Warning also included Catalina Island. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Quintin, Mexico to the border with the U.S. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Guaymas to Huatabampito, Mexico.

Hurricane Hilary was weakening on Saturday night. There was no longer an eye visible on satellite images of Hurricane Hilary. The distribution of thunderstorms in Hilary was asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern half of Hilary’s circulation. Bands in the southern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The circulation around Hurricane Hilary was still large even though Hilary was weakening. Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Hilary’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 265 miles (425 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 13.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 18.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 32.6. Hurricane Hilary was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Matthew when Matthew hit South Carolina in 2016.

Hurricane Hilary will be moving into an environment that will be unfavorable for a hurricane during the next 24 hours. Hilary will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are colder than 26°C. It will move between an upper level ridge over Mexico and the south central U.S. and an upper level low west of California. The upper level ridge and upper level low will interact to produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Hilary’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. The combination of cooler water and more vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Hilary to weaken during the next 24 hours. In addition, much of the circulation in the eastern side of Hurricane Hilary will pass over Baja California. The mountains in Baja California will partially disrupt the flow of air around Hurricane Hilary.

The upper level ridge over the south central U.S. and the upper level low west of California will steer Hurricane Hilary toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Hilary will be near Punta Eugenia early Sunday morning. Hilary will continue to produce strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain in Baja California on Sunday. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Hilary could take a track similar to the one taken by Hurricane Nora in 1997. The center of Hilary will reach southern California by Sunday evening. Hilary will weaken to a tropical storm before it reaches southern California. Hilary will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern California. The heaviest rain is likely to fall where the wind force the air to rise over mountains. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches have been issued for parts of southern California, southern Nevada, southern Utah and western Arizona. Hilary could also bring strong winds to mountains in southern Nevada, southern Utah and western Arizona.