Tropical Storm Ileana formed south of Baja California on Thursday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located at latitude 19.9°N and longitude 108.0°W which put the center about 240 miles (385 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Ileana was moving toward the north-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Santa Fe to San Evaristo, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning includes Cabo San Lucas and La Paz.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from San Evaristo to Loreto, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Topolobampo to Huatabampito, Mexico.
A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California strengthened on Thursday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Ileana. More thunderstorms were developing near the center of Ileana’s circulation. However, the distribution of theunderstorms in Tropical Storm Ileana was asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of Ileana’s circulation. Bands in the eastern side of Ileana consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.
The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Ileana was also asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Ileana’s circulation. The winds in the other parts of Ileana were blowing at less than tropical storm force.
Tropical Storm Ileana will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ileana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over Mexico. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ileana’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Storm Ileana is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.
Tropical Storm Ileana will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Ileana toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Ileana will reach the southern end of Baja California on Friday morning.
Tropical Storm Ileana will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the southern part of Baja California. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.