Monthly Archives: February 2024

Tropical Cyclone Lincoln Drops Rain on Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Lincoln dropped rain on parts of Western Australia on Saturday. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Lincoln was located at latitude 22.8°S and longitude 113.3°E which put it about 65 miles (105 km) west of Learmonth, Australia. Lincoln was moving toward the south at 14 m.p.h. (22km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Lincoln weakened as it approached the coast of Western Australia on Saturday. An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean west of Australia produced strong northwesterly winds that blew across the top of Lincoln’s circulation. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Lincoln to be asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Lincoln’s circulation. Bands in the northern half of Tropical Cyclone Lincoln consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Cyclone Lincoln will move around the western side of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer Lincoln toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Lincoln will move farther inland near the coast of Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Lincoln will weaken while it moves inland over Western Australia. Lincoln will drop heavy rain over parts of Western Australia as it move farther inland. Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations. Flood Watches are in effect for the Pilbara Coast and the Gascoyne Coast river catchments. A Flood Watch is also in effect for the Central West District river catchments.

Tropical Cyclone Lincoln Moves Toward Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Lincoln moved toward the coast of Western Australia on Friday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Lincoln was located at latitude 20.0°S and longitude 113.3°E which put it about 200 miles (320 km) north of Exmouth, Australia. Lincoln was moving toward the south-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the coast of Western Australia from Giralia to Cape Cuvier. The Warning included Exmouth, Ningaloo, and Coral Bay.

Tropical Cyclone Lincoln maintained its intensity on Friday, but the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring mainly in bands in the western half of Lincoln’s circulation. Bands in the eastern half of Tropical Cyclone Lincoln consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Lincoln’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Lincoln.

Tropical Cyclone Lincoln will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Lincoln will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, an upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean west of Australia will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Lincoln’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Cyclone Lincoln could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough west of Australia will steer Tropical Cyclone Lincoln toward the south during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Lincoln will approach the coast of Western Australia between Exmouth and Cape Cuvier in 24 hours. Lincoln will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Western Australia. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Eleanor Weakens South of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Eleanor weakened south of Mauritius on Friday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Eleanor was located at latitude 23.9°S and longitude 58.4°E which put it about 265 miles (430 km) south-southeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. Eleanor was moving toward the south at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

An upper level trough southeast of Madagascar produced strong northwesterly winds that blew across the top of Tropical Cyclone Eleanor. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear. The strong upper level winds also blew the upper part pf Eleanor’s circulation to the southeast of the circulation in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Eleanor consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. A few thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southeastern periphery of Eleanor’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Eleanor.

Tropical Cyclone Eleanor will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Eleanor will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C. However, the upper level trough south of Madagascar will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Eleanor to continue to weaken during the next 36 hours.

Since the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Eleanor exists in the lower levels of the atmosphere, it will be steered by winds in those levels. Eleanor will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Eleanor toward the west. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Eleanor will move south of Mauritius and La Reunion during the next 36 hours.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Lincoln continued to spin near the coast of Western Australia. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Lincoln was located at latitude 19.3°S and longitude 113.5°E which put it about 245 miles (395 km) north of Exmouth, Australia. Lincoln was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb. A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Onslow to Wooramel Roadhouse, Australia. The Warning included Exmouth and Carnarvon.

Tropical Cyclone Lincoln Prompts Warning for Western Australia

The potential risk posed by Tropical Cyclone Lincoln prompted the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to issue a Warning for a portion of the coast of Western Australia on Thursday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Lincoln was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 117.7°E which put it about 175 miles (280 km) north of Port Hedland, Australia. Lincoln was moving toward the southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Mardie to Ningaloo, Australia. The Warning included Exmouth and Onslow. A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Ningaloo to Wooramel Roadhouse, Australia. The Watch included Carnarvon.

Tropical Cyclone Lincoln was strengthening gradually as it moved over the South Indian Ocean near Western Australia on Thursday. Even though Lincoln was strengthening, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern and western parts of Tropical Cyclone Lincoln. Bands in the southern and eastern parts of Lincoln’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. An upper level ridge over Australia was producing northeasterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Lincoln. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of Lincoln’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Lincoln will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Lincoln will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, the upper level ridge over Australia will continue to cause vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Eleanor is likely to strengthen gradually during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Lincoln will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer Lincoln toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. Lincoln will move more toward the south when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system on Friday. Tropical Cyclone Lincoln could approach the coast of Western Australia between Mardie and Caranarvon in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Eleanor Moves Southeast of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Eleanor moved southeast of Mauritius on Thursday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Eleanor was located at latitude 21.7°S and longitude 58.4°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) southeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. Eleanor was moving toward the south-southeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Bands in the western part of Tropical Cyclone Eleanor produced gusty winds and rain showers in Mauritius on Thursday. A weather station at the Sir Seewoosagur Ramgoolam International Airport (FIMP) in Port St. Louis reported a sustained wind speed of 26 m.p.h. (43 km/h) and a wind gust of 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).

The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Eleanor was asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern and southern parts of Eleanor’s circulation. Bands in the northern and western parts of Tropical Cyclone Eleanor consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. An upper level trough south of Madagascar produced northwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Eleanor’s circulation. Those winds caused moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear caused the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Eleanor’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Eleanor will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Eleanor will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, the upper level trough south of Madagascar will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Cyclone Eleanor could strengthen a little during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Eleanor will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Eleanor toward the south-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Eleanor will gradually move farther to the south-southeast of Mauritius.

Tropical Cyclone Eleanor Churns North-northeast of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Eleanor was churning over the South Indian Ocean north-northeast of Mauritius on Tuesday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Eleanor was located at latitude 15.2°S and longitude 60.6°E which put it about 425 miles (685 km) north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. Eleanor was moving toward the south-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Eleanor strengthened gradually on Tuesday as it churned over the South Indian Ocean north-northeast of Mauritius. More thunderstorms developed near the center of Eleanor’s circulation Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Eleanor. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Eleanor.

Tropical Cyclone Eleanor will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Eleanor will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Eleanor will intensify during the next 36 hours. Eleanor could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Eleanor will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Eleanor toward the south during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Eleanor will be northeast of Mauritius in 24 hours. Eleanor could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it is northeast of Mauritius.

Elsewhere, former Tropical Cyclone Lincoln moved across northern Australia toward the coast of Western Australia. At 7:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of former Tropical Cyclone Lincoln was located at latitude 15.9°S and longitude 124.6°E which put it about 65 miles (105 km) east-northeast of Cockatoo Island. Lincoln was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Watch for the portion of the coast from Roebourne to Ningaloo. The Watch included Karratha, Dampier, Onslow and Exmouth.

Tropical Storm Akara Forms Over South Atlantic Ocean

Tropical Storm Akara formed over the South Atlantic Ocean during Monday night. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Akara was located at latitude 32.0°S and longitude 42.0°W which put it about 550 miles (885 km) east-southeast of Porto Alegre, Brazil. It was moving toward the south at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

The Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) in Brazil designated a former subtropical cyclone over the South Atlantic Ocean southeast of Brazil as Tropical Storm Akara on Monday night. There was a well defined center of circulation in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Bands of showers and lower clouds were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Akara. A stronger rainband coiled around the western and northern side of Akara’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Akara will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Akara will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24°C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the South Atlantic Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow across the top of the subtropical cyclone. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The moderate wind shear and marginal Sea Surface Temperatures are likely to cause Tropical Storm Akara to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Akara will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the South Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Akara slowly toward the south during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm will remain east of South America.

Tropical Cyclone Eleanor Forms North of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Eleanor formed over the South Indian Ocean north of Mauritius on Monday. At 1:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Eleanor was located at latitude 14.1°S and longitude 56.6°E which put it about 415 miles (670 km) north of Port Louis, Mauritius. Eleanor was moving toward the east at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean north of Mauritius strengthened on Monday and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Eleanor. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Eleanor’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Eleanor. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Eleanor’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Eleanor will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Eleanor will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Eleanor will intensify during the next 36 hours. Eleanor could intensify rapidly at times. Tropical Cyclone Eleanor is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Eleanor will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Eleanor toward the south during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Eleanor will approach Mauritius in 48 hours. Eleanor is likely to be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it approaches Mauritius.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Djoungou weakened rapidly west of Australia. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Djoungou was located at latitude 30.7°S and longitude 93.9°E which put it about 1470 miles (2370 km) west of Perth, Australia. Djoungou was moving toward the southeast at 47 m.p.h. (76 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Subtropical Cyclone Develops Over South Atlantic Ocean

A subtropical cyclone developed over the South Atlantic Ocean southeast of Brazil on Monday. At 1:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of a subtropical cyclone was located at latitude 30.0°S and longitude 42.0°W which put it about 570 miles (920 km) east-southeast of Porto Alegre, Brazil. It was moving toward the southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Atlantic Ocean southeast of Brazil exhibited more organization on Monday and the National Institute of Meteorology in Brazil classified the system as a subtropical depression. The subtropical cyclone had a well defined center of circulation in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Bands of showers and lower clouds were revolving around the center of circulation. A stronger rainband coiled around the northern and western side of the subtropical cyclone.

The subtropical cyclone will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24°C. The subtropical cyclone will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the South Atlantic Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce strong northerly winds that will blow across the top of the subtropical cyclone. Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear and marginal Sea Surface Temperatures are likely to cause the subtropical cyclone to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours.

The subtropical cyclone will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the South Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the subtropical cyclone slowly toward the south during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the subtropical cyclone will remain east of South America.

Tropical Cyclone Djoungou Strengthens to Equivalent of Cat. 4 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Djoungou strengthened to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the South Indian Ocean on Sunday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Djoungou was located at latitude 22.5°S and longitude 82.3°E which put it about 1150 miles (1855 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia. Djoungou was moving toward the southeast at 33 m.p.h. (54 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 942 mb.

A small circular was visible at the center of Tropical Cyclone Djoungou earlier on Sunday, but the eye was no longer evident on Sunday afternoon. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Djoungou. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped lmass away from the tropical cyclone.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Djoungou increased on Sunday. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Djoungou’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Djoungou was 28.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 25.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 53.9.

Tropical Cyclone Djoungou will move through an environment unfavorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 36 hours. Djoungou will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C. It will move under the eastern part of an upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level trough will produce strong northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Djoungou’s circulation. Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear. Strong vertical wind shear and cooler water will cause Tropical Cyclone Djoungou to weaken rapidly during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Djoungou will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Djoungou toward the east-southeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Djoungou will move far to the south of the Cocos Islands in 36 hours.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, a tropical depression formed northwest of Mauritius. At 1:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of the tropical depression was located at latitude 15.5°S and longitude 5363°E which put it about 405 miles (650 km) northwest of Port Louis, Mauritius. The tropical depression was moving toward the east-northeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.