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Tropical Cyclone Fina Hits Kimberley Coast

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Tropical Cyclone Fina hit the northeast Kimberley coast of Australia on Monday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina was located at latitude 14.3°S and longitude 127.9°E which put the center about 80 miles (130 km) east of Kalumburu, Australia.  Fina was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 946 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fina hit the northeast Kimberley coast of Australia near the Mouth of the Berkeley River on Monday.  Fina was the equivalent of a major hurricane at the time of landfall.  Tropical Cyclone Fina was bringing strong destructive winds and heavy rain to the region near the Mouth of the Berkeley River.  Fina was also causing a strong storm surge in the small area near the center of its circulation.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fina was very small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Fina’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Fina was 23.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 6.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.6.  Tropical Cyclone Fina was similar in intensity to Hurricane Dennis when Dennis hit Northwest Florida in 2005.  Fina was not as large as Dennis was.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will move around the western end of a high pressure system over northern Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Fina toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fina will move inland over the Kimberley Plateau.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will weaken quickly because of its small size as it moves over the Kimberley Plateau.  Fina will continue to produce strong winds and to drop locally heavy rain as it moves inland.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

 

Tropical Cyclone Fina Moves Over Timor Sea

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Tropical Cyclone Fina was moving over the Timor Sea on Sunday after it caused wind damage and electricity outages in Darwin.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina was located at latitude 13.7°S and longitude 128.8°E which put the center about 155 miles (250 km) west-southwest of Darwin, Australia.  Fina was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Wadeye, Australia to the Daly River Mouth.  A Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from the border between the Northern Territory and Western Australia to Kalumburu.

Tropical Cyclone Fina was still a well organized tropical cyclone on Sunday.  A small circular eye was visible at the center of Fina’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Fina.  Storms near the core of Fina generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fina was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Fina’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Fina was 19.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.6.  Tropical Cyclone Fina was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fina will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over northern Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Fina’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  However, the circulation around the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Fina will begin to pull drier air from northwestern Australia into its circulation.  The drier air will cause thunderstorms in the eastern side of Fina’s circulation to start to weaken.  The effects of the drier air will cause Tropical Cyclone Fina to start to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will move around the western end of a high pressure system over northern Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Fina toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina will reach the coast of Western Australia near of the King George River Mouth in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to the coast of the Western Australia northeast of Kalumburu.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Fina could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along parts of the coast of the Western Australia.

Flood Watches are in effect for the North West Coastal Rivers and the Bonaparte Coastal Rivers.

Tropical Cyclone Fina Brings Wind and Rain to Darwin

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Tropical Cyclone Fina brought wind and rain to Darwin, Australia on Saturday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina was located at latitude 12.2°S and longitude 130.4°E which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) northwest of Darwin, Australia.  Fina was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

A Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Hotham to Wadeye, Australia.  The Warning includes Darwin.  A Warning is also in effect for the western and central Tiwi Islands.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Wadeye to Troughton Island, Australia.  The Watch includes Kalumburu.

Tropical Cyclone Fina brought wind and rain to the area around Darwin, Australia on Saturday.  The core of Fina’s circulation, where the strongest winds were, was passing to the northwest of Darwin.  A weather station at the Darwin Airport reported a sustained wind speed of 37 m.p.h. (57 km/h) and a wind gust to 53 m.p.h. (85 km/h).  The weather station also measure 5.89 inches (149.6 mm) of rain.

Tropical Cyclone Fina intensified to the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it moved over the Timor Sea.  A very small eye was present at the center of Fina’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Fina.  Storms near the core of Fina generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fina was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Fina’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Fina was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 24.0.  Tropical Cyclone Fina was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification while it moves over the Timor Sea during the next 24 hours.  Fina will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.   It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over northern Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Fina’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Fina could intensify during the next 24 hours.  Fina could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will move around the western end of a high pressure system over northern Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Fina toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.   On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina will move away from Darwin during the next 24 hours.   Fina will approach the coast of Western Australia northeast of Kalumburu in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to the coast of the Northern Territory of Australia southwest of Darwin.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Fina could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of the coast of the Northern Territory.

Flood Watches are in effect for the North West Coastal Rivers and the Bonaparte Coastal Rivers.

Typhoon Fung-wong Hits Luzon

Typhoon Fung-wong hit Luzon on Sunday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Typhoon Fung-wong was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 121.3°E which put the center about 25 miles (40 km) east of Bayombong, Philippines.  Fung-wong was moving toward the northwest at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 945 mb.

The center of Typhoon Fung-wong made landfall on the east coast of Luzon between Baler and Casiguran on Sunday.  Fung-wong was the equivalent of a major hurricane when it made landfall.

The circulation around Typhoon Fung-wong was large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Fung-wong’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 230 miles (370 km) from the center of Typhoon Fung-wong.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Fung-wong is 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 27.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 47.7.  Typhoon Fung-wong is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Irma when Irma hit Southwest Florida in 2017.

Typhoon Fung-wong will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fung-wong toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Fung-wong will move across northern Luzon during the next few hours.  Fung-wong will move over the South China Sea.

Typhoon Fung-wong will bring strong, gusty winds and very heavy rain to Luzon.  Heavy rain will cause widespread flash floods.  Fung-wong will cause widespread electricity outages.  Typhoon Fung-wong could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along portions of the coast of Luzon.

Typhoon Fung-wong will move into an environment that will be less favorable for intensification when it moves over the South China Sea.  Fung-wong will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over eastern China.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, drier air from Asia has spread over the South China Sea.  The drier air will gradually get pulled into the circulation around Fung-wong.  The drier air is likely to cause Typhoon Fung-wong to weaken slowly when it moves over the South China Sea.

Typhoon Fung-wong Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Typhoon Fung-wong intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane east of the Philippines on Saturday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Typhoon Fung-wong was located at latitude 14.0°N and longitude 125.8°E which put the center about 190 miles (305 km) east of Daet, Philippines.  Fung-wong was moving toward the west-northwest at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

A circular eye was present at the center of Fung-wong’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolving around the core of Fung-wong’s circulation.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Typhoon Fung-wong was very large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 110 miles (175 km) in the northern half of Fung-wong’s circulation.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the southern side of Typhoon Fung-wong.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 375 miles (605 km) in the northern side of Fung-wong’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 230 miles (370 km) in the southern half of Typhoon Fung-wong.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Fung-wong is 23.6.  The Hurricane Size index (HSI) is 37.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) 60.9.  Typhoon Fung-wong is similar in intensity to Hurricane Katrina when Katrina hit Mississippi in 2005.  Fung-wong is larger than Katrina was.

Typhoon Fung-wong will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Fung-wong will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is east of the Philippines.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  There is drier air to the north and west of Typhoon Fung-wong.  However, that drier air is not likely to be pulled into the typhoon during the next 12 hours.  Typhoon Fung-wong could intensify during the next 12 hours.

Typhoon Fung-wong will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fung-wong toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Fung-wong will hit northern Luzon in 18 hours.

Typhoon Fung-wong will be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Luzon.  Fung-wong will bring strong, gusty winds and very heavy rain to Luzon.  Heavy rain will cause widespread flash floods.  Typhoon Fung-wong could also cause a storm surge of up to 14 fee (4 meters) along portions of the coast of Luzon.

Typhoon Kalmaegi Strikes Central Vietnam

Typhoon Kalmaegi struck central Vietnam on early on Thursday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Typhoon Kalmaegi was located at latitude 13.6°N and longitude 109.9°E which put the center about 50 miles (80 km) southeast of Quy Nohn, Vietnam.  Kalmaegi was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 951 mb.

The center of Typhoon Kalmaegi made landfall on the coast of central Vietnam near Song Cau early on Thursday.  Kalmaegi was the equivalent of a major hurricane at the time of landfall.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) at the time of landfall.

At the time of landfall winds to typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Kalmaegi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center center of Typhoon Kalmaegi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Kalmaegi at the time of landfall was 23.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 18.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 42.0.  Typhoon Kalmaegi was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Milton when Milton hit Florida in 2024.

Typhoon Kalmaegi will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over China.  The high pressure system will steer Kalmaegi toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Kalmaegi will move inland over central Vietnam during the next few hours.  Kalmaegi will then move near the border between Laos and Cambodia.

Typhoon Kalmaegi will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to central Vietnam during the next few hours.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.

Typhoon Kalmaegi will weaken steadily as it moves farther inland over Southeast Asia.  Kalmaegi will also drop heavy rain over southern Laos, Cambodia, and northern Thailand.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Fung-wong continued to strengthen gradually east of Yap.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Fung-wong was located at latitude 9.9°N and longitude 140.62E which put the center about 170 miles (280 km) east of Yap.  Fung-wong was moving toward the west-northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.  Tropical Storm Fung-wong is forecast to intensify to a typhoon.

Typhoon Kalmaegi Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Typhoon Kalmaegi intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane east of Vietnam on Wednesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Kalmaegi was located at latitude 13.4°N and longitude 113.6°E which put the center about 335 miles (540 km) east-southeast of Quy Nohn, Vietnam.  Kalmaegi was moving toward the west-northwest at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

Typhoon Kalmaegi continued to strengthen on Wednesday as it moved over the South China Sea east of Vietnam.  A small circular eye was at the center of Kalmaegi’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Typhoon Kalmaegi.  Storms near the center of Kalmaegi generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Typhoon Kalmaegi was relatively small. Winds to typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Kalmaegi’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Typhoon Kalmaegi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Kalmaegi was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 33.1.  Typhoon Kalmaegi was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Delta when Delta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Typhoon Kalmaegi will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours.  Kalmaegi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that is over China.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Kalmaegi’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  There is drier air to the north of Kalmaegi.  Typhoon Kalmaegi could intensify during the next 18 hours if the drier air remains north of the typhoon.

Typhoon Kalmaegi will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over China.  The high pressure system will steer Kalmaegi toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Kalmaegi will reach the coast of central Vietnam in 18 hours.

The center of Typhoon Kalmaegi is likely to make landfall on the coast of Vietnam near Quy Nohn.  Kalmaegi will bring strong winds and heavy rain to central Vietnam.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.  Typhoon Kalmaegi could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of the coast.

Typhoon Kalmaegi will also drop heavy rain over southern Laos, Cambodia, and northern Thailand.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, former Tropical Depression 32W strengthened to Tropical Storm Fung-wong east of Yap.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Fung-wong was located at latitude 9.7°N and longitude 140.6°E which put the center about 190 miles (305 km) east of Yap.  Fung-wong was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.  Tropical Storm Fung-wong is forecast to intensify to a typhoon.

Typhoon Kalmaegi Moves over South China Sea

Typhoon Kalmaegi moved over the South China Sea on Wednesday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Kalmaegi was located at latitude 12.7°N and longitude 115.2°E which put the center about 450 miles (725 km) east-southeast of Quy Nohn, Vietnam.  Kalmaegi was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

Typhoon Kalmaegi strengthened again on Wednesday as it moved over the South China Sea.  A new, small circular eye formed at the center of Kalmaegi’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Typhoon Kalmaegi.  Storms near the center of Kalmaegi generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Typhoon Kalmaegi was relatively small.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Kalmaegi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Typhoon Kalmaegi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Kalmaegi was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.8.  Typhoon Kalmaegi was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sally when Sally hit South Alabama in 2020.

Typhoon Kalmaegi will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Kalmaegi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that is over China.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Kalmaegi’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  There is drier air to the north of Kalmaegi.  Typhoon Kalmaegi could intensify during the next 24 hours if the drier air remains north of the typhoon.  Kalmaegi could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Typhoon Kalmaegi will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over China.  The high pressure system will steer Kalmaegi toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Kalmaegi will reach the coast of central Vietnam in 24 hours.

The center of Typhoon Kalmaegi is likely to make landfall on the coast of Vietnam near Quy Nohn.  Kalmaegi will bring strong winds and heavy rain to central Vietnam.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.  Typhoon Kalmaegi could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of the coast.

Typhoon Kalmaegi will also drop heavy rain over southern Laos, Cambodia, and northern Thailand.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression 32W  was slowly becoming more organized east of Yap.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression 32W was located at latitude 8.9°N and longitude 142.3°E which put the center about 300 miles (485 km) east of Yap.  The tropical depression was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.  It is forecast to strengthen.

Typhoon Kalmaegi Brings Wind and Rain to the Philippines

Typhoon Kalmaegi brought wind and rain to parts of the Philippines on Monday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Typhoon Kalmaegi was located at latitude 10.6°N and longitude 125.6°E which put the center about 50 miles (80 km) east of Abuyog, Philippines.  Kalmaegi was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

Typhoon Kalmaegi continued to strengthen as it approached the central Philippines on Monday.  A small circular eye developed at the center of Kalmaegi’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Kalmaegi.  Storms neat the center of Kalmaegi generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds around Typhoon Kalmaegi was symmetrical.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Kalmaegi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Typhoon Kalmaegi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Kalmaegi was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 31.5.  Typhoon Kalmaegi was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sally when Sally hit South Alabama in 2020.

Typhoon Kalmaegi will weaken when the center of circulation passes over the central Philippines.  Kalmaegi will move into an environment favorable for intensification when it reaches the Sulu Sea on Tuesday.  Kalmaegi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Kalmaegi’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Typhoon Kalmaegi will start to intensify again when it reaches the Sulu Sea.

Typhoon Kalmaegi will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Kalmaegi toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Kalmaegi will move through the central Philippines during the next 24 hours.  The center of Kalmaegi will pass near southern Leyte, Bohol, Cebu, northern Negros, and Panay Island.  Typhoon Kalmaegi will pass near northern Palawan on Tuesday.

Typhoon Kalmaegi will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the central Philippines.  The strongest winds and heaviest rain will occur at Dinagat Island, southern Leyte, Bohol, Cebu, northern Negros, Panay Island, and northern Palawan.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Typhoon Kalmaegi could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast.

Hurricane Melissa Speeds Toward Bermuda

Hurricane Melissa was speeding toward Bermuda on Thursday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Melissa was located at latitude 26.8°N and longitude 72.7°W which put the center about 605 miles (980 km) southwest of Bermuda.  Melissa was moving toward the north-northeast at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Bermuda.

Hurricane Melissa strengthened as it moved over warm water near the Bahamas on Wednesday night.  A new larger eye formed at the center of Melissa’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that broken ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Melissa’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Melissa generated upper level divergence that pumped more mass away to the northeast of the hurricane.  The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease again.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Melissa increased as it strengthened again.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Melissa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) from the center of Hurricane Melissa.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Melissa is 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 19.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 37.6.

Hurricane Melissa will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Melissa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the eastern part of an upper level trough that is over the eastern U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Melissa’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Hurricane Melissa could intensify during the next 24 hours.  The upper level winds will get stronger on Friday.  More vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Melissa to weaken.  The stronger wind shear will also cause Melissa to start a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough will steer Hurricane Melissa toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Melissa will be near Bermuda on Thursday night.

Hurricane Melissa will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Bermuda on Thursday night.  Melissa will pass near the southeastern part of Newfoundland on Friday night.