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Tropical Cyclone Courtney Equivalent of Cat. 4 Hurricane

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Tropical Cyclone Courtney was the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the South Indian Ocean on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Courtney was located at latitude 19.9°S and longitude 89.1°E which put the center about 715 miles (1150 km) southwest of the Cocos Islands.  Courtney was moving toward the southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 939 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Courtney strengthened on Saturday.  Courtney was the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  A small circular eye was present at the center of Courtney’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Courtney’s circulation.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Courtney was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Courtney’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Courtney.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Courtney was 29.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 40.6.

Tropical Cyclone Courtney will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Courtney will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Courtney’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Tropical Cyclone Courtney will weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.

Tropical Cyclone Courtney will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Courtney toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Courtney will move farther away from the Cocos Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Jude Hits Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Jude hit Mozambique on Sunday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude was located at latitude 15.2°S and longitude 39.5°E which put the center about 70 miles (110 km) southwest of Nacala, Mozambique.  Jude was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Jude hit the coast of Mozambique just to the south of Nacala on Sunday night.  Jude was the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon at the time of landfall.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) at the time of landfall.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Jude was 13.9 at the time of landfall.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.9.  Tropical Cyclone Jude was similar in intensity to Hurricane Hanna when Hanna hit south Texas in 2020. Jude was larger than Hanna was.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jude remains well organized even though the center of Jude’s circulation has been over land for a few hours.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude.  Storms near the center of circulation continue to generate upper level divergence that is pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jude continues to be symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Jude’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Mozambique Channel.  The high pressure system will steer Jude toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Jude will move farther inland over northern Mozambique.  Jude could turn toward the south during the middle of the week.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of northern Mozambique.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Jude will weaken gradually while the center is over land.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ivone was passing far to the south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ivone was located at latitude 19.4°S and longitude 81.9°E which put the center about 1060 miles (1660 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Ivone was moving toward the south-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jude Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Jude intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it neared the coast of Mozambique on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude was located at latitude 14.9°S and longitude 40.8°E which put the center about 40 miles (65 km) east-southeast of Nacala, Mozambique.  Jude was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jude rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it neared the coast of Mozambique on Sunday.  A small circular eye formed at the center of Jude’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude.  Storms near the center of Jude generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jude was symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Jude’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Jude is 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 27.9.  Tropical Cyclone Jude is similar in intensity to Hurricane Hanna when Hanna hit south Texas in 2020.  Jude is larger than Hanna was.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Jude will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Jude will intensify during the next few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Mozambique Channel.  The high pressure system will steer Jude toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude will reach the coast of Mozambique near Nacala in a few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it reaches Mozambique.  Jude will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Mozambique.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods.  Tropical Cyclone Jude will also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast of Mozambique.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ivone continued to spin far to the southeast of Diego Garcia.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ivone was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 82.9°E which put the center about 1005 miles (1625 km) southeast of Diego Garcia.  Ivone was moving toward the south-southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Honde Brings Wind and Rain to Southern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Honde continued to bring wind and rain to southern Madagascar on Saturday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde was located at latitude 26.9°S and longitude 45.3°E which put the center about 120 miles (195 km) south of Tsiombe, Madagascar.  Honde was moving toward the southeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

Bands in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Honde continued to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern Madagascar on Saturday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 24 miles (38 km) was at the center of Honde’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde.  Storms near the center of Honde generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The divergence of mass in the upper levels of the atmosphere was almost balanced by the inflow of mass in the lower levels of Tropical Cyclone Honde.  As a result, the surface pressure was not changing much.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Honde was large.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) in the southern half of Honde’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 220 miles (350 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Honde was 10.4.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 22.9.  Tropical Cyclone Honde was similar in intensity to Hurricane Dolly when Dolly hit south Texas in 2008.

Tropical Cyclone Honde will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Honde will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough near southern Africa.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Honde’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Honde will likely maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough near southern Africa will steer Tropical Cyclone Honde slowly toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde will move a little farther away from southern Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Honde will continue to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern Madagascar during the next 24 hours.  Prolonged heavy rain will likely cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Southwest Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Garance was weakening as it moved farther to the south of La Reunion.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance was located at latitude 28.6°S and longitude 55.0°E which put the center about 505 miles (815 km) south of St. Denis, La, Reunion.  Garance was moving toward the south at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred Moves South

Tropical Cyclone Alfred moved south over the Coral Sea on Friday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 21.8°S and longitude 155.7°E which put the center about 450 miles (725 km) north-northeast of Brisbane, Australia.  Alfred was moving toward the south at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred was showing signs of weakening as it moved south over the Coral Sea on Friday.  There was still an eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) at the center of Alfred’s circulation, but the eye was not as distinct on satellite images.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Alfred appeared to be becoming a little more asymmetrical.  There were more thunderstorms in bands in the southern and eastern parts of Alfred’s circulation.  There appeared to be fewer thunderstorms in bands in the northern and western parts of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

Storms near the center of Alfred continued to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  However, the inflow of mass in the lower levels of Alfred’s circulation was equal to the upper level divergence.  So, the surface pressure did not change much on Friday.

The size of circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred decreased a little on Friday.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Alfred’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 205 miles (325 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Alfred is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 19.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 41.8.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred is similar in intensity to Hurricane Jeanne when Jeanne hit Florida in 2004.  Alfred is not as large as Jeanne was.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea.  The upper level ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Alfred’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  The increase in vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Alfred to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is east of the Coral Sea.  The high pressure system will steer Alfred toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alfred will a little closer to the east coast of Australia.  Alfred could move closer to the coast of Queensland early next week.

Tropical Cyclone Garance Batters La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Garance battered La Reunion on Friday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance was located at latitude 21.8°S and longitude 55.4°E which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) south-southeast of St. Denis, La, Reunion.  Garance was moving toward the south at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

The core of Tropical Cyclone Garance moved directly over La Reunion on Friday.  Roland Garros airport (FMEE) measured a sustained wind speed of 61 knots (70 m.p.h. or 113 km/h) and a wind gust of 83 knots (95 m.p.h. or 154 km/h).

Tropical Cyclone Garance dropped very heavy rain on La Reunion.  There were reports of flooding.  Roland Garros airport (FMEE) measured 6.48 inches (164.6 mm) of rain.  A weather station at Piton-Maido reported 18.49 inches (469.6 mm) of rain.  A weather station at Cilaos reported 17.06 inches (433.4 mm) of rain.

Tropical Cyclone Garance was a small tropical cyclone when it hit La Reunion.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Garance’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Garance was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8,8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.6.  Tropical Cyclone Garance was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Garance will be pulled around the eastern side of the larger circulation around Tropical Cyclone Honde.  Garance will move toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Garance will move south of La Reunion later today.

Tropical Cyclone Garance will weaken significantly during its passage over La Reunion.  Tropical Cyclone Garance will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Garance will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, it will move under the upper level outflow from Tropical Cyclone Honde.  The upper level outflow from Honde’s circulation will cause the vertical wind shear to increase over Garance.  The increase in vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Garance to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Elsewhere over the Southwest Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Honde brought strong winds and heavy rain  to southern Madagascar.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde was located at latitude 26.1°S and longitude 44.0°E which put the center about 190 miles (305 km) south of Toliara, Madagascar.  Honde was moving toward the east-southeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred Churns over the Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Alfred continued to churn over the Coral Sea on Thursday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 19.4°S and longitude 155.5°E which put the center about 605 miles (980 km) north-northeast of Brisbane, Australia.  Alfred was moving toward the south at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 950 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred strengthened a little more as it churned over the Coral Sea on Thursday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) was present at the center of Alfred’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The divergence of mass in the upper atmosphere was nearly equal to the convergence of mass in the lower atmosphere.  The near balance of mass caused the surface pressure to remain nearly steady.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred was large.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Alfred’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 215 miles (345 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Alfred is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 29.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 51.4.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Jeanne when Jeanne hit Florida in 2004.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea.  The winds are weak near the middle of the upper level ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, the circulation around Alfred seems to be nearly in balance with the surrounding environment.  So, the intensity of Tropical Cyclone Alfred may not change much during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is east of the Coral Sea.  The high pressure system will steer Alfred toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move parallel to the east coast of Australia.  Alfred could move closer to the coast of Queensland during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Garance Intensifies to Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Garance intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane north of La Reunion on Thursday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance was located at latitude 18.5°S and longitude 55.4°E which put the center about 155 miles (205 km) north of St. Denis, La, Reunion.  Garance was moving toward the southeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). 0 The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Garance intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane north of La Reunion on Thursday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Garance’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Garance’s circulation.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Garance was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Garance’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Garance was 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.4. Tropical Cyclone Garance was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dennis when Dennis hit Northwest Florida in 2005.

Tropical Cyclone Garance will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Garance will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under an upper level ridge that is east of Madagascar.  The upper level winds are weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Garance could continue to intensify during the next 12 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs.

Tropical Cyclone Garance is likely to get pulled into the eastern side of the larger circulation around Tropical Cyclone Honde, which is over the southern Mozambique Channel.  The larger circulation around Honde will steer Garance toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Garance will reach La Reunion within the next 18 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Garance is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches La Reunion.  Garance will be capable of causing major damage on La Reunion.  Tropical Cyclone Garance will also drop heavy rain on La Reunion.  Heavy rain is likely to cause widespread flash flooding.  Garance could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast of La Reunion.

Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Garance could also bring strong winds and heavy rain to Mauritius.  There were reports that the airport on Mauritius was closed as a precaution.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Honde intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the southern Mozambique Channel near Madagascar.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde was located at latitude 25.0°S and longitude 41.8°E which put the center about 170 miles (280 km) southwest of Toliara, Madagascar.  Honde was moving toward the southeast at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Honde will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred Continues to Strengthen

Tropical Cyclone Alfred continued to strengthen over the Coral Sea on Wednesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 17.0°S and longitude 155.5°E which put the center about 660 miles (1050 km) north-northeast of Brisbane, Australia.  Alfred was moving toward the south at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred continued to strengthen over the Coral Sea on Wednesday.  A very small circular eye was visible at the center of Alfred’s circulation on satellite images.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred increased when Alfred strengthened on Wednesday.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Alfred’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (325 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Alfred is 19.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 22.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 41.9.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Gustav when Gustav hit Louisiana in 2008.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea.  The winds are weak near the middle of the upper level ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs.  If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls will form.  If concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle will cause Alfred to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is over Vanuatu.  The high pressure system will steer Alfred toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move parallel to the east coast of Australia.  Alfred could move closer to the coast of Queensland by the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Garance Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Garance intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon north-northwest of La Reunion on Wednesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 54.7°E which put the center about 200 miles (325 km) north-northwest of St. Denis, La, Reunion.  Garance was moving toward the east-southeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Garance rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Southwest Indian Ocean north-northwest of La Reunion on Wednesday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Garance’s circulation.  A small circular eye appeared to be forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance.  The developing eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Garance’s circulation.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Garance was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Garance’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Garance was 16.5  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.7.  Tropical Cyclone Garance was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.

Tropical Cyclone Garance will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Garance will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the northern side of an upper level low that is southeast of La Reunion.  The upper level low will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Garance’s circulation.  Those winds will some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Garance will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Garance is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Garance could get pulled into the eastern side of the larger circulation around Tropical Cyclone Honde, which is over the Mozambique Channel.  The larger circulation around Honde will steer Garance toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Garance will approach La Reunion in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Garance is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches La Reunion.  Garance will be capable of causing major damage on La Reunion.  Tropical Cyclone Garance will also drop heavy rain on La Reunion.  Heavy rain is likely to cause widespread flash flooding.  Garance could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast of La Reunion.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Honde was intensifying over the Mozambique Channel.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde was located at latitude 24.1°S and longitude 40.2°E which put the center about 255 miles (410 km) west of Toliara, Madagascar. Honde was moving toward the east-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.