Tag Archives: HWISI

Tropical Cyclone Darian Strengthens Back to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Darian strengthened back to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean southeast of Diego Garcia on Monday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Darian was located at latitude 16.9°S and longitude 84.5°E which put it about 1060 miles (1710 km) southeast of Diego Garcia. Darian was moving toward the southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

After completing several eyewall replacement cycles during the past 36 hours, Tropical Cyclone Darian strengthened back to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean far to the southeast of Diego Garcia. A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) was at the center of Darian’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Darian. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The completed eyewall replacements cycles increased the size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Darian. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Darian. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (305 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Darian was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 19.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 43.0.

Tropical Cyclone Darian will move through an environment favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Darian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the core of Tropical Cyclone Darian, then another eyewall replacement cycle could begin. A new eyewall replacement cycle would cause Darian to weaken again. Tropical Cyclone Darian will move over cooler water later this week, which is likely to cause a steadier weakening trend.

Tropical Cyclone Darian will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Darian toward the southwest during the next few days. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Darian will pass far to the south of Diego Garcia. Darian could be southeast of Rodrigues in three days.

Tropical Cyclone Darian Intensifies to Nearly Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Darian intensified to nearly the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Friday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Darian was located at latitude 12.4°S and longitude 83.6°E which put it about 850 miles (1375 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia. Darian was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 920 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Darian appeared to go through an eyewall replacement cycle on Thursday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the original eye and eyewall. Two concentric eyewalls were evident on some microwave satellite images. Darian weakened during the eyewall replacement cycle. The original inner eyewall eventually dissipated and Tropical Cyclone Darian intensified rapidly on Friday. The new eyewall contracted around the center of Darian and a small eye was at the center of circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Darian. Storm near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The size of Tropical Cyclone Darian increased after the eyewall replacement cycle. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Darian. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Darian was 33.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 20.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 54.0.

Tropical Cyclone Darian will move through an environment favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Darian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Darian could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then another eyewall replace cycle could begin. An eyewall replacement cycle would cause Darian to weaken again.

An upper level trough west of Australia will strengthen during the next 36 hours. Northwesterly winds blowing around the western side of the trough will steer Tropical Cyclone Darian toward the south-southeast during that time period. On its anticipated track Darian will move farther away from Diego Garcia.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Ellie dropped locally heavy rain over parts of the Northern Territory in Australia. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ellie was located at latitude 15.8°S and longitude 131.0°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) north-northwest of Daly Waters, Australia. Ellie was moving toward the south-southeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Darian Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Darian rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean east-southeast of Diego Garcia on Tuesday. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Darian was located at latitude 14.0°S and longitude 92.7°E which put it about 1255 miles (2355 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia. Darian was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 946 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Darian continued to intensify rapidly on Tuesday. A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was at the center of Darian’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Darian. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

The size of Tropical Cyclone Darian increased as it intensified rapidly. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Darian. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 165 miles (265 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Darian was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 39.9.

Tropical Cyclone Darian will move through an environment favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Darian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Darian could continue to intensify during the next 24 hours. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replace cycle could begin. An eyewall replacement cycle would cause Darian to weaken temporarily.

Tropical Cyclone Darian will move around the northern part of a subtropical high pressure system north of the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Darian toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Darian will be southeast of Diego Garcia later this week.

Hurricane Roslyn Hits West Coast of Mexico

Hurricane Roslyn hit the west coast of Mexico on Sunday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Roslyn was located at latitude 22.1°N and longitude 105.5°W which put it about 55 miles (90 km) northwest of Tepic, Mexico. Roslyn was moving toward the north-northeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Las Islas Marias. A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Escuinapa, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Puerto Vallarta. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Escuinapa to Mazatlan, Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Manzanillo to Playa Perula, Mexico and from Escuinapa to Mazatlan, Mexico.

The center of Hurricane Roslyn made landfall on the west coast of Mexico north of San Blas on Sunday morning. Roslyn was a major hurricane at the time of landfall. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Roslyn’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 30.6. Hurricane Roslyn was capable of causing localized major damage.

An upper level trough west of Baja California and a high pressure system over Mexico will steer Hurricane Roslyn quickly toward the northeast on Sunday. Roslyn will bring strong winds and drop locally heavy rain over Nayarit. Strong winds are likely to cause damage and electricity outages. Hurricane Roslyn will weaken steadily as it moves inland over western Mexico. Even though it will weaken, Roslyn could also drop locally heavy rain over southern Durango. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some parts of Nayarit and southern Durango.

Major Hurricane Roslyn Nears West Coast of Mexico

Major Hurricane Roslyn neared the west coast of Mexico on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Roslyn was located at latitude 20.0°N and longitude 106.6°W which put it about 65 miles (105 km) west-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. Roslyn was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Las Islas Marias. A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Escuinapa, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Puerto Vallarta. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Escuinapa to Mazatlan, Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Manzanillo to Playa Perula, Mexico and from Escuinapa to Mazatlan, Mexico.

Hurricane Roslyn was at Category 4 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it approached the west coast of Mexico on Saturday night. A circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) was at the center of Roslyn’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Roslyn. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Roslyn was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Roslyn’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 33.6. Hurricane Roslyn was capable of causing localized severe damage.

Hurricane Roslyn will into an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next few hours. Roslyn will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. However, an upper level trough west of Baja California will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Roslyn’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Hurricane Roslyn could start to weaken when the wind shear increases.

The upper level trough west of Baja California will steer Hurricane Roslyn toward the northeast during Sunday. On its anticipated track Hurricane Roslyn will make landfall on the west coast of Mexico near San Blas on Sunday morning. Although Roslyn could weaken before it makes landfall, it is likely to still be a major hurricane when it reaches the west coast of Mexico. Roslyn will bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Nayarit. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Hurricane Roslyn could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along the coast. Hurricane Roslyn will be capable of causing localized major damage.

Roslyn Rapidly Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Roslyn rapidly intensified to a major hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean near the west coast of Mexico during Friday night. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Roslyn was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 106.3°W which put it about 200 miles (320 km) south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. Roslyn was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Las Islas Marias. A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to El Roblito, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Puerto Vallarta. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from El Roblito to Mazatlan, Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Manzanillo to Playa Perula, Mexico and from El Roblito to Mazatlan, Mexico.

Hurricane Roslyn rapidly intensified to a major hurricane during Friday night. A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Roslyn’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Roslyn. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Roslyn was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Roslyn’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.1. Hurricane Roslyn was capable of causing localized major damage.

Hurricane Roslyn will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Roslyn will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the axis on an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Roslyn is likely to intensify during the next 12 hours. Roslyn could intensify rapidly for a few more hours. Hurricane Roslyn could strengthen to a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. An upper level trough west of Baja California will produce southwesterly winds on Saturday night that will blow toward the top of Roslyn’s circulation. Those winds will cause the wind shear to increase. Hurricane Roslyn could start to weaken when the wind shear increases.

Hurricane Roslyn will move around the western side of a surface high pressure system centered over northern Mexico during the next 12 hours. The high pressure system will steer Roslyn toward the north. The upper level trough west of Baja California will steer Hurricane Roslyn toward the northeast on Saturday night and Sunday. The center of Roslyn is likely to pass just to the west of Cabo Corrientes during Friday night. On its anticipated track Hurricane Roslyn could make landfall on the west coast of Mexico near San Blas on Sunday morning. Roslyn will bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Nayarit. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Hurricane Roslyn could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along the coast. Hurricane Roslyn will be capable of causing localized major damage.

Hurricane Orlene Brings Wind and Rain to Las Islas Marias

Hurricane Orlene brought wind and rain to Las Islas Marias, Mexico on Sunday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Orlene was located at latitude 21.4°N and longitude 106.5°W which put it about 10 miles (15 km) southwest of Las Islas Marias, Mexico. Orlene was moving toward the north-northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Las Islas Marias. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from San Blas to Mazatlan, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to San Blas, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to San Blas, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Playa Perula, Mexico.

Hurricane Orlene weakened gradually on Sunday afternoon after it rapidly intensified to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale earlier in the day. A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was still present at the center of Hurricane Orlene. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around core of Orlene’s circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Orlene was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Orlene. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 6.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 24.6. Hurricane Orlene was capable of causing localized serious damage.

Hurricane Orlene will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Orlene will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. However, an upper level trough over northwestern Mexico will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Orlene’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Stronger vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Orlene to continue to weaken during Monday.

Hurricane Orlene will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico. The upper level trough over northwestern Mexico will steer Hurricane Orlene toward the north-northeast during Sunday night and Monday. Orlene will bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Las Islas Marias. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Hurricane Orlene could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) in parts of Las Islas Marias. Orlene could cause serious damage in Las Islas Marias. On its anticipated track Hurricane Orlene is likely to make landfall on the west coast of Mexico between San Blas and Mazatlan on Monday afternoon. Orlene will bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the coast. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in parts of Nayarit and southern Sinaloa. Hurricane Orlene could produce storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast.

Hurricane Orlene Rapidly Intensifies to Cat. 4

Hurricane Orlene rapidly intensified to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Saturday night. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Orlene was located at latitude 19.3°N and longitude 106.8°W which put it about 105 miles (165 km) southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. Orlene was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Las Islas Marias. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from San Blas to Mazatlan, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to San Blas, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to San Blas, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Playa Perula, Mexico.

Hurricane Orlene rapidly intensified to Category 4 during Saturday night. A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Hurricane Orlene. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around core of Orlene’s circulation. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Orlene was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Orlene. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 5.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 30.4. Hurricane Orlene was capable of causing localized severe damage.

Hurricane Orlene will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Orlene will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. Orlene will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Orlene could intensify during the next few hours. An upper level trough over northwestern Mexico will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Orlene’s circulation later on Sunday. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Hurricane Orlene is likely to weaken when the wind shear increases.

Hurricane Orlene will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Orlene toward the north during the next 12 hours. The upper level trough over northwestern Mexico will steer Hurricane Orlene toward the north-northeast on Sunday night and Monday. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Orlene will hit Las Islas Marias early on Monday morning. Orlene will bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Las Islas Marias. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some location. Hurricane Orlene could cuase major damage in Las Islas Marias. Orlene is likely to make landfall on the west coast of Mexico on Monday afternoon.

Hurricane Orlene Rapidly Intensifies to Cat. 2

Hurricane Orlene rapidly intensified to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Orlene was located at latitude 18.4°N and longitude 106.9°W which put it about 160 miles (255 km) south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. Orlene was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 966 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Las Islas Marias. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from San Blas to Mazatlan, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to San Blas, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to San Blas, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Playa Perula, Mexico.

Hurricane Orlene rapidly intensified on Saturday night. A circular eye with a diameter of 13 miles (20 km) was at the center of Hurricane Orlene. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around core of Orlene’s circulation. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Orlene was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Orlene. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 5.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 24.5. Hurricane Orlene was capable of causing localized serious damage.

Hurricane Orlene will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Orlene will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. Orlene will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Orlene is likely to intensify during the next 12 hours. Orlene could continue to intensify rapidly. Hurricane Orlene is likely to strengthen to a major hurrican by Sunday morning. An upper level trough over northwestern Mexico will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Orlene’s circulation later on Sunday. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Hurricane Orlene is likely to weaken when the wind shear increases.

Hurricane Orlene will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Orlene toward the north during the next 18 hours. The upper level trough over northwestern Mexico will steer Hurricane Orlene toward the north-northeast on Sunday night and Monday. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Orlene will hit Las Islas Marias early on Monday morning. Orlene is likely to make landfall on the west coast of Mexico on Monday afternoon.

Hurricane Ian Makes Landfall in South Carolina

Hurricane Ian made landfall in South Carolina on Friday afternoon. According to the National Hurricane Center the center of Hurricane Ian officially made landfall near Georgetown, South Carolina at 2:05 p.m. EDT on Friday. At 2:05 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Ian was located at latitude 33.3°N and longitude 79.2°W which put it about 55 miles (90 km) east-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina. Ian was moving toward the north at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Savannah River, Georgia to Cape Fear, North Carolina. The Hurricane Warning included Charleston, South Carolina. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Fear to Surf City, North Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina. The Tropical Storm Warning included Pamlico Sound. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound to Savannah River, Georgia.

The center of Hurricane Ian moved over the coast of South Carolina near Georgetown at 2:05 p.m. EDT on Friday. Ian was a Category 1 hurricane at the time of landfall. Winds to hurricane force extended out70 miles (110 km) from the center of Ian’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 275 miles (445 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 12.7. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 30.9. Hurricane Ian was capable of causing regional minor damage.

Hurricane Ian was bringing strong gusty winds to the coastal areas of South Carolina on Friday afternoon. The weather station at the Charleston airport (KCHS) reported a sustained wind speed of 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and a wind gust of 68 m.p.h. (101 m.p.h.). Heavy rain was also falling over Charleston and there were reports of flooded streets. Hurricane Ian was causing a storm surge east of Georgetown where the winds were blowing water toward the coast. A surge of 4 to 7 feet (1.2 to 2.1 meters) was possible in the part of the coast between Georgetown and Cape Fear, North Carolina. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Savannah River, Georgia to Cape Fear, North Carolina. Winds and waves were causing erosion along the coast.

Hurricane Ian will weaken gradually as it moves inland over eastern South Carolina. The center of Ian will move over south central South Carolina during Friday night. Ian will produce strong gusty winds over South Carolina and eastern and central North Carolina. Gusts to tropical storm force could affect the area around Charlotte, North Carolina. Minor wind damage and widespread electricity outages could occur in those areas. Gusty winds could push over trees in locations where the ground is saturated. Heavy rain was already falling over South Carolina, eastern North Carolina,, and southeastern Virginia. Flood Watches were in effect for much of South Carolina, North Carolina and southeastern Virginia. Southerly winds will push water toward the coast in places east of Georgetown, South Carolina. The storm surge is likely to continue in those places for a few more hours.