Tag Archives: New South Wales

Tropical Cyclone Alfred Brings Wind and Rain to Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone Alfred brought wind and rain to Brisbane on Friday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 27.4°S and longitude 153.4°E which put the center about 45 miles (75 km) east of Brisbane, Australia.  Alfred was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

A Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Noosa, Queensland to Ballina, New South Wales.  The Warning includes Brisbane.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred brought wind and rain to the area around Brisbane, Australia on Friday.  A band of heavier rain and stronger winds stretched from Southport through Beenleigh to Brisbane.

A weather station at the airport in Brisbane reported a sustained wind speed of 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 58 m.p.h. (93 km/h).  The airport had received 0.79 inches (20.2  mm) of rain.  A weather station at Coolangatta reported a sustained wind speed of 37 m.p.h. (59 km/h) and a wind gust of 62 m.p.h. (100 km/h).

Tropical Cyclone Alfred was the equivalent of a tropical storm when it made landfall on the east coast of Australia.  The circulation around Alfred was large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 275 miles (445 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is southeast of Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Tropical Cyclone Alfred toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred will pass near Brisbane during  the next few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will continue to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales.   Bands in the southern side of Alfred’s circulation will drop the heaviest rain.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred will also be capable of causing a storm surge of up to six feet (1.8 meters) along portions of the coast.

A Flood Watch is in effect for southeast Queensland.  A Flood Watch is also in effect for the northern rivers of New South Wales.

 

Tropical Cyclone Alfred Approaches Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone Alfred was approaching Brisbane, Australia on Thursday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 27.3°S and longitude 154.9°E which put the center about 130 miles (210 km) east of Brisbane, Australia.    Alfred was moving toward the west at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

A Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Double Island Point, Queensland to Grafton, New South Wales.  The Warning includes Brisbane.

An upper low near the east coast of Australia continued to produce northwesterly winds that blew across the top of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear.  Those winds also caused the distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone Alfred to be asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern part of Alfred’s circulation.  Bands in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone Alfred consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred was large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) from the center of Alfred’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 18 hours.  Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, the upper level low near the east coast of Australia will continue to produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Alfred’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  The strong wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred is close to being in equilibrium with its surrounding environment.  The intensity of Tropical Cyclone Alfred could remain relatively constant during the next 18 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is southeast of Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Tropical Cyclone Alfred toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred will reach the east coast of Australia near Brisbane in 18 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales.   Bands in the southern side of Alfred’s circulation will drop the heaviest rain.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred will also be capable of causing a storm surge of up to six feet (1.8 meters) along portions of the coast.

A Flood Watch is in effect for southeast Queensland.  A Flood Watch is also in effect for the northern rivers of New South Wales.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred Meanders East of Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone Alfred meandered east of Brisbane, Australia on Wednesday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 27.3°S and longitude 156.6°E which put the center about 230 miles (370 km) east of Brisbane, Australia.    Alfred was moving toward the east-southeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

A Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Double Island Point, Queensland to Grafton, New South Wales.  The Warning includes Brisbane.

An upper low near the east coast of Australia produced west-northwesterly winds that blew across the top of Tropical Cyclone Alfred on Wednesday.  Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear.  Those winds also caused the distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone Alfred to become more asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southeastern part of Alfred’s circulation.  A few thunderstorms were also occurring in a band in the northern edge of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  Bands in the other parts of Alfred’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

he circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred was very large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 320 miles (520 km) from the center of Alfred’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, the upper level low near the east coast of  Australia will continue to produce west-northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Alfred’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  The stroong wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred could be close to being in equilibrium with its surrounding environment.  The intensity of Tropical Cyclone Alfred could remain relatively constant during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is southeast of Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Tropical Cyclone Alfred toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alfred will reach the east coast of Australia near Brisbane in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Alfred will also be capable of causing a storm surge of up to six feet (1.8 meters) along portions of the coast.

A Flood Watch is in effect for southeast Queensland.  A Flood Watch is also in effect for the Northern Rivers of New South Wales.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred Moves Toward Australia

Tropical Cyclone Alfred started to move toward the east coast of Australia on Tuesday.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for a portion of the coast.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 27.8°S and longitude 158.2°E which put the center about 335 miles (540 km) east of Brisbane, Australia.   Alfred was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

A Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Double Island Point , Queensland to Grafton, New South Wales.  The Warning includes Brisbane.

A Watch remains in effect for the portion of the coast from Sandy Cape to Double Island Point, Queensland.

The structure of Tropical Cyclone Alfred started to change when Alfred began to move west toward the east coast of Australia.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western and southern parts of Alfred’s circulation.  Bands in the northern and eastern parts of Tropical Cyclone Alfred consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Alfred generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred was very large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) from the center of Alfred’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, the upper level low over eastern Australia will continue to produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Alfred’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred could be close to being in equilibrium with its surrounding environment.  The intensity of Tropical Cyclone Alfred could remain relatively constant during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is southeast of Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Tropical Cyclone Alfred toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alfred will approach the east coast of Australia near Brisbane in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Alfred will also be capable of causing a storm surge of up to six feet (1.8 meters) along portions of the coast.

A Flood Watch is in effect for southeast Queensland.  A Flood Watch is also in effect for the Northern Rivers and Mid-North Coast of New South Wales.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred Lingers East of Australia

Tropical Cyclone Alfred lingered over the Coral Sea east of Australia on Monday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 27.3°S and longitude 158.8°E which put the center about 370 miles (595 km) east of Brisbane, Australia.   Alfred was moving toward the southeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Sandy Cape, Queensland to Grafton, New South Wales.  The Watch includes Brisbane.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred did not look much like a tropical cyclone on satellite images on Monday night.  An upper level trough over the Coral Sea was producing strong northerly winds that were blowing across the top of Alfred’s circulation.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  The strong wind shear was making the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Alfred very asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southern part of Alfred’s circulation.  Bands in the northern part of Tropical Cyclone Alfred consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred was very large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 260 miles (420 km) from the center of Alfred’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, the upper level trough over the Coral Sea will continue to produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Alfred’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  The strong wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred could be close to being in equilibrium with its surrounding environment.  The intensity of Tropical Cyclone Alfred could remain relatively constant during the next 24 hours.

A high pressure system southeast of Australia will block Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  The high pressure system will keep Alfred from moving farther to the southeast.  The high pressure system will steer Tropical Cyclone Alfred toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alfred could approach the east coast of Australia near Brisbane in 48 hours.

 

 

Tropical Cyclone Alfred Prompts Watch for East Coast of Australia

A potential risk posed by Tropical Cyclone Alfred prompted the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to issue a Watch for a portion of the east coast of Australia on Sunday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 26.6°S and longitude 157.4°E which put the center about 290 miles (465 km) east-northeast of Brisbane, Australia.  Alfred was moving toward the southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Sandy Cape, Queensland to Grafton, New South Wales.  The Watch includes Brisbane.

An upper level trough over eastern Australia continued to produce northwesterly winds that blew across the top of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear was making the distribution of thunderstorms in Alfred asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  Bands in the northern part of Alfred’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred was still large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) from the center of Alfred’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, the upper level trough over eastern Australia will continue to produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Alfred’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred could be close to being in equilibrium with its surrounding environment.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred could intensify a little during the next 24 hours in spite of the vertical wind shear.

The upper level trough over eastern Australia will steer Tropical Cyclone Alfred toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  Alfred is forecast to start to move toward the west on Tuesday.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alfred could approach the east coast of Australia later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred Weakens

Tropical Cyclone Alfred weakened over the Coral Sea east of Australia on Saturday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 23.6°S and longitude 155.0°E which put the center about 330 miles (530 km) north-northeast of Brisbane, Australia.  Alfred was moving toward the south at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

An upper level trough over eastern Australia produced northwesterly winds that blew across the top of Tropical Cyclone Alfred on Saturday.  Those winds blew the tops off of the thunderstorms in the northern half of Alfred’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  Bands in the northern part of Alfred’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Even though Tropical Cyclone Alfred weakened substantially on Saturday, the circulation around Alfred was still large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) from the center of Alfred’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, the upper level trough over eastern Australia will continue to produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Alfred’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred could be close to being in equilibrium with its surrounding environment.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is east of the Coral Sea.  The high pressure system will steer Alfred toward the south during the next 24 hours.  Alfred could start to move toward the west on Monday.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alfred could move toward the coast of southern Queensland early next week.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred Continues to Strengthen

Tropical Cyclone Alfred continued to strengthen over the Coral Sea on Wednesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 17.0°S and longitude 155.5°E which put the center about 660 miles (1050 km) north-northeast of Brisbane, Australia.  Alfred was moving toward the south at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred continued to strengthen over the Coral Sea on Wednesday.  A very small circular eye was visible at the center of Alfred’s circulation on satellite images.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred increased when Alfred strengthened on Wednesday.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Alfred’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (325 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Alfred is 19.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 22.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 41.9.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Gustav when Gustav hit Louisiana in 2008.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea.  The winds are weak near the middle of the upper level ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs.  If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls will form.  If concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle will cause Alfred to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is over Vanuatu.  The high pressure system will steer Alfred toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move parallel to the east coast of Australia.  Alfred could move closer to the coast of Queensland by the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone 13P Develops Over the Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone 13P developed over the Coral Sea northwest of New Caledonia on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone 13P was located at latitude 17.2°S and longitude 159.7°E which put it about 550 miles (885 km) northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia.  It was moving toward the south at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation developed within an area of showers and thunderstorms over the Coral Sea on Monday.  The strongest rainband extended from northeast of the center, south of the the center and then west of the center.  Additional rainbands were forming in other part of the circulation.  Storms near the center of circulation were beginning to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the south of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone 13P will move through an environment favorable for intensification on Tuesday.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level trough near the east coast of Australia is producing northerly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  The core of Tropical Cyclone 13P is east of the strongest upper level winds, but the winds are causing moderate vertical wind shear.  Despite the vertical shear, the tropical cyclone is forecast to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 13P is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering it toward the south.  There is some variability in the guidance from the numerical models about the future strength of the ridge.  Some models do not strengthen the ridge much and those model predict that Tropical Cyclone 13P will move almost straight southward.  Other models increase the strength of the ridge and steer the tropical cyclone more toward the south-southwest.  A general motion toward the south or south-southwest seems most likely during the next 24 to 36 hours.  On its anticipated track the core of Tropical Cyclone 13P would pass west of New Caledonia, but it could move closer to the east coast of Australia.