Tropical Cyclone Alfred lingered over the Coral Sea east of Australia on Monday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 27.3°S and longitude 158.8°E which put the center about 370 miles (595 km) east of Brisbane, Australia. Alfred was moving toward the southeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.
A Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Sandy Cape, Queensland to Grafton, New South Wales. The Watch includes Brisbane.
Tropical Cyclone Alfred did not look much like a tropical cyclone on satellite images on Monday night. An upper level trough over the Coral Sea was producing strong northerly winds that were blowing across the top of Alfred’s circulation. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear was making the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Alfred very asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southern part of Alfred’s circulation. Bands in the northern part of Tropical Cyclone Alfred consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.
The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred was very large. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 260 miles (420 km) from the center of Alfred’s circulation.
Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, the upper level trough over the Coral Sea will continue to produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Alfred’s circulation. Those winds will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Alfred could be close to being in equilibrium with its surrounding environment. The intensity of Tropical Cyclone Alfred could remain relatively constant during the next 24 hours.
A high pressure system southeast of Australia will block Tropical Cyclone Alfred. The high pressure system will keep Alfred from moving farther to the southeast. The high pressure system will steer Tropical Cyclone Alfred toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alfred could approach the east coast of Australia near Brisbane in 48 hours.