A potential risk posed by Tropical Cyclone Alfred prompted the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to issue a Watch for a portion of the east coast of Australia on Sunday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 26.6°S and longitude 157.4°E which put the center about 290 miles (465 km) east-northeast of Brisbane, Australia.  Alfred was moving toward the southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Sandy Cape, Queensland to Grafton, New South Wales.  The Watch includes Brisbane.

An upper level trough over eastern Australia continued to produce northwesterly winds that blew across the top of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear was making the distribution of thunderstorms in Alfred asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  Bands in the northern part of Alfred’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred was still large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) from the center of Alfred’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, the upper level trough over eastern Australia will continue to produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Alfred’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred could be close to being in equilibrium with its surrounding environment.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred could intensify a little during the next 24 hours in spite of the vertical wind shear.

The upper level trough over eastern Australia will steer Tropical Cyclone Alfred toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  Alfred is forecast to start to move toward the west on Tuesday.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alfred could approach the east coast of Australia later this week.