Monthly Archives: December 2024

Tropical Cyclone 05S Moves South of Cocos Islands

Tropical Cyclone 05S moved south of the Cocos Islands in the South Indian Ocean on Friday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone 05S was located at latitude 14.2°S and longitude 96.6°E which put the center about 125 miles (200 km) south of the Cocos Islands.  Tropical Cyclone 05S was moving toward the south at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Cyclone 05S was moving under the western end of an upper level ridge that extended from Australia to the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge was producing northeasterly winds that were blowing toward the top of the tropical cyclone.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone 05S to be asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western and southern parts of the tropical cyclone.  Bands in the northern and eastern parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The distribution of winds speeds around Tropical Cyclone 05S was also symmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) in the southwestern quadrant of the tropical cyclone.  The winds in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone 05S were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone 05S will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical cyclone will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will continue to move under the western part of an upper level ridge that extends from Australia to the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will continue to produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Cyclone 05S.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone 05S is likely to start to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 05S will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone 05S will move farther away from the Cocos Islands on Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone 05S Forms West of Cocos Islands

Tropical Cyclone 05S formed over the South Indian Ocean west of the Cocos Islands on Thursday evening.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone 05S was located at latitude 12.1°S and longitude 95.2°E which put the center about 140 miles (225 km) east of the Cocos Islands.  Tropical Cyclone 05S was moving toward the east at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean west of the Cocos Islands strengthened on Thursday evening and the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center designated the system as Tropical Cyclone 05S.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as a Tropical Low.

The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone 05S was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the tropical cyclone.  Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone 05S consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west and south of the tropical cyclone.

The distribution of winds speeds around Tropical Cyclone 05S was also symmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) in the western half of the tropical cyclone.  The winds in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone 05S were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone 05S will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical cyclone will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that extends from Australia to the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Cyclone 05S.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone 05S could intensify during the next 24 hours, if the upper level winds do not get any stronger.

Tropical Cyclone 05S will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone 05S will pass southwest of the Cocos Islands on Friday.

Pabuk Weakens to a Tropical Depression

Former Tropical Storm Pabuk weakened to a tropical depression east of southern Vietnam during Tuesday night.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Pabuk was located at latitude 9.3°N and longitude 110.0°E which put the center about 260 miles (420 km) east-southeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.  Pabuk was moving toward the south-southwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Pabuk weakened to a tropical depression during Tuesday night.  A surface high pressure over eastern Asia produced strong northeasterly winds along the east coast of Vietnam.  Those winds transported cooler, drier air into Pabuk’s circulation.  The cooler drier air caused many of the thunderstorms in former Tropical Storm Pabuk to dissipate.  Pabuk’s circulation consisted primarily of bands of showers and lower clouds revolving around the surface center.

Tropical Depression Pabuk will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Pabuk will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Pabuk’s circulation.  The combination of southeasterly winds in the upper levels and northeasterly winds in the lower levels will cause strong vertical wind shear.   The surface high pressure system over eastern Asia will continue to transport cooler, drier air into Tropical Depression Pabuk.  The combination of strong vertical wind shear and cooler, drier air will cause Tropical Depression Pabuk to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Depression Pabuk will move around the southeastern side of the high pressure system over eastern Asia.  The high pressure system will steer Pabuk toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Pabuk will remain east of Vietnam.

Tropical Storm Pabuk Moves Toward Vietnam

Tropical Storm Pabuk moved slowly toward Vietnam on Tuesday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Pabuk was located at latitude 11.3°N and longitude 111.3°E which put the center about 335 miles (540 km) east of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.  Pabuk was moving toward the west-southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Storm Pabuk was better organized in Tuesday morning.  More thunderstorms were occurring near the center of Pabuk’s circulation.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern and western sides of the center of Tropical Storm Pabuk.  Storms near the center of Pabuk generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and west of the tropical storm.

Even though Tropical Storm Pabuk was better organized, the distribution of thunderstorms was still asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern and western sides of Pabuk’s circulation.  Bands in the southern and eastern side of Tropical Storm Pabuk consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Storm Pabuk will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Pabuk will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Pabuk’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  A surface high pressure system over eastern Asia will transport drier air around the southern side of Tropical Storm Pabuk.  The combination of drier air and moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification of Tropical Storm Pabuk during the next 24 hours.  Pabuk could strengthen a little if the vertical wind shear does not get any stronger.  Tropical Storm Pabuk is likely to weaken if the upper level winds do get stronger.

Tropical Storm Pabuk will move around the southeastern side of the high pressure system over eastern Asia.  The high pressure system will steer Pabuk toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Pabuk will continue to move toward Vietnam.

Tropical Storm Pabuk Develops East of Vietnam

Tropical Storm Pabuk developed over the South China Sea east of Vietnam on Monday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Pabuk was located at latitude 11.5°N and longitude 112.5°E which put the center about 410 miles (660 km) east of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.  Pabuk was moving toward the north at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression 28W strengthened on Monday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Pabuk.  The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Pabuk was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in a band in the northern part of Pabuk’s circulation.  The bands in the other parts of Tropical Storm Pabuk consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Storm Pabuk will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Pabuk will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Pabuk’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  A surface high pressure system over eastern Asia will transport drier air into the western side of Tropical Storm Pabuk.  The combination of drier air and moderate vertical wind shear is likely to cause Tropical Storm Pabuk to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Pabuk will move around the southeastern side of the high pressure system over eastern Asia.  The high pressure system will steer Pabuk toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Pabuk will move toward Vietnam.

Tropical Depression Forms Over South China Sea

A tropical depression formed over the South China Sea near the Spratly Islands on Saturday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of the tropical Depression was located at latitude 9.5°N and longitude 114.4°E which put the center about 450 miles (725 km) east of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.  The tropical depression was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A low pressure system over the South China Sea near the Spratly Islands exhibited more organization on Saturday night and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as a tropical depression.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of the tropical depression.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands to the north and west of the center.  Bands in the southern and eastern parts of the tropical depression consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and west of the tropical depression.

The tropical depression will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical depression will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical depression.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  The tropical depression could intensify to a tropical storm on Sunday.

The tropical depression will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression slowly toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the tropical depression will move toward Vietnam.

Tropical Cyclone Chido Brings Wind and Rain to Northern Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Chido brought wind and rain to northern Mozambique on Sunday.  At 7:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido was located at latitude 13.7°S and longitude 38.6°E which put the center about 40 miles (65 km) southeast of Marrupa, Mozambique.  Chido was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Chido was moving steadily inland over northern Mozambique on Sunday.  Chido was weakening gradually as it moved farther inland.  Even though Tropical Cyclone Chido was weakening, the circulation around Chido remained well organized and symmetrical.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of of Chido’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Chido still generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The upper level divergence of mass was less than the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere, and the surface pressure was increasing.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean and southern Africa . The high pressure system will steer Chido toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Chido will continue to move farther inland over northern Mozambique.  Chido will reach southern Malawi on Sunday night.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Mozambique.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Chido could also drop heavy rain on southern Malawi.

Tropical Cyclone Chido Hits Northern Mozambique

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Chido hit the coast of northern Mozambique on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido was located at latitude 13.5°S and longitude 40.6°E which put the center about 75 miles (120 km) north of Nacala, Mozambique.  Chido was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 950 mb.

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Chido hit the coast of northern Mozambique less than 24 hours after Chido caused major damage in Mayotte.  The center of Tropical Cyclone Chido made landfall on the coast north of Nacala.  Chido was the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale at the time of landfall.  A small circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Chido’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Chido.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Chido was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Chido’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Chido is 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 8.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 33.1.  Tropical Cyclone Chido is similar in intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey made landfall in Texas in 2017.  Chido is not as large as Harvey was.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Mozambique.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Chido could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast of northern Mozambique.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Chido toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Chido will move inland over northern Mozambique.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will weaken steadily as it moves inland over northern Mozambique.  However, Chido will still bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to northern Mozambique.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could also drop heavy rain on parts of southern Malawi.

Tropical Cyclone Chido Batters Mayotte

Tropical Cyclone Chido battered Mayotte during Friday night.  A weather station at the Dzaoudzi-Pamandzi International Airport (FMCZ) in Mayotte reported a sustained wind speed of 84 knots (97 m.p.h. or 156 km/h) during the passage of Tropical Cyclone Chido.  The weather station also reported a wind gust of 99 knots (114 m.p.h. or 184 km/h) during the passage of Chido.  Tropical Cyclone Chido most likely caused major damage on Mayotte.

At 4:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido was located at latitude 12.7°S and longitude 44.8°E which put the center about 20 miles (30 km) west of Mayotte.  Chido was moving toward the west-southwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Chido strengthened as it approached Mayotte on Friday night.  A circular eye with a diameter of 15 miles (24 km) was at the center of Chido’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Chido.  Storms near the core of Chido generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass in the upper levels exceeded the stronger inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The greater upper level divergence caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Chodi was very symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Chido’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Chido is 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 12.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 37.6.  Tropical Cyclone Chido is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey made landfall in Texas in 2017.

The southern part of the eyewall of Tropical Cyclone Chido passed directly over Mayotte.  Chido likely caused major damage in Mayotte.  Tropical Cyclone Chido also dropped heavy rain on Mayotte and flash floods are likely.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move through an environment favorable for a powerful tropical cyclone during the next 18 hours.  Chido will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could maintain its intensity during the next 18 hours if the inflow of mass in the lower levels is balanced by the divergence of mass in the upper levels of the atmosphere.  Chido could weaken if the inflow of mass in the lower levels exceeds the divergence of mass in the upper levels.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Chido toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido will reach the coast of northern Mozambique in 18 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Chido is likely to make landfall on the coast of northern Mozambique near Pemba.  Chido could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it hits northern Mozambique.  Tropical Cyclone Chido will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to northern Mozambique. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Chido will be capable of causing regional major damage.

Tropical Cyclone Chido Approaches Mayotte

Tropical Cyclone Chido was approaching Mayotte and Comoros on Friday afternoon.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido was located at latitude 12.1°S and longitude 47.0°E which put the center about 135 miles (215 km) east-northeast of Mayotte.  Chido was moving toward the west-southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Chido was weakening slowly as it approached Mayotte on Friday afternoon.  A circular eye with a diameter of 15 miles (24 km) was at the center of Chido’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Chido.  Storms near the core of Chido generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was not quite able to balance the stronger inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The greater inflow of mass in the lower levels caused the surface pressure to increase.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Chodi was very symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Chido’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Chido is 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 15.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 33.5.  Tropical Cyclone Chido is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sally when Sally made landfall in south Alabama in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move through an environment favorable for a powerful tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Chido will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours if the inflow of mass in the lower levels is balanced by the divergence of mass in the upper levels of the atmosphere.

Tropical Cyclone Chido will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Chido toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Chido will reach Mayotte in 12 hours.  Chido could approach the coast of northern Mozambique in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Chido could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Mayotte and the Comoros.  The center of Chido will pass very close to Mayotte.  Tropical Storm Chido will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Mayotte.  Chido could also bring strong winds and heavy rain to the southern Comoros.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Chido could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast of Mayotte and the southern Comoros.