Tag Archives: 05S

Tropical Cyclone Fina Hits Kimberley Coast

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Tropical Cyclone Fina hit the northeast Kimberley coast of Australia on Monday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina was located at latitude 14.3°S and longitude 127.9°E which put the center about 80 miles (130 km) east of Kalumburu, Australia.  Fina was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 946 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fina hit the northeast Kimberley coast of Australia near the Mouth of the Berkeley River on Monday.  Fina was the equivalent of a major hurricane at the time of landfall.  Tropical Cyclone Fina was bringing strong destructive winds and heavy rain to the region near the Mouth of the Berkeley River.  Fina was also causing a strong storm surge in the small area near the center of its circulation.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fina was very small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Fina’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Fina was 23.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 6.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.6.  Tropical Cyclone Fina was similar in intensity to Hurricane Dennis when Dennis hit Northwest Florida in 2005.  Fina was not as large as Dennis was.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will move around the western end of a high pressure system over northern Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Fina toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fina will move inland over the Kimberley Plateau.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will weaken quickly because of its small size as it moves over the Kimberley Plateau.  Fina will continue to produce strong winds and to drop locally heavy rain as it moves inland.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

 

Tropical Cyclone Fina Moves Over Timor Sea

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Tropical Cyclone Fina was moving over the Timor Sea on Sunday after it caused wind damage and electricity outages in Darwin.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina was located at latitude 13.7°S and longitude 128.8°E which put the center about 155 miles (250 km) west-southwest of Darwin, Australia.  Fina was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Wadeye, Australia to the Daly River Mouth.  A Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from the border between the Northern Territory and Western Australia to Kalumburu.

Tropical Cyclone Fina was still a well organized tropical cyclone on Sunday.  A small circular eye was visible at the center of Fina’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Fina.  Storms near the core of Fina generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fina was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Fina’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Fina was 19.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.6.  Tropical Cyclone Fina was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fina will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over northern Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Fina’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  However, the circulation around the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Fina will begin to pull drier air from northwestern Australia into its circulation.  The drier air will cause thunderstorms in the eastern side of Fina’s circulation to start to weaken.  The effects of the drier air will cause Tropical Cyclone Fina to start to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will move around the western end of a high pressure system over northern Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Fina toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina will reach the coast of Western Australia near of the King George River Mouth in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to the coast of the Western Australia northeast of Kalumburu.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Fina could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along parts of the coast of the Western Australia.

Flood Watches are in effect for the North West Coastal Rivers and the Bonaparte Coastal Rivers.

Tropical Cyclone Fina Brings Wind and Rain to Darwin

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Tropical Cyclone Fina brought wind and rain to Darwin, Australia on Saturday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina was located at latitude 12.2°S and longitude 130.4°E which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) northwest of Darwin, Australia.  Fina was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

A Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Hotham to Wadeye, Australia.  The Warning includes Darwin.  A Warning is also in effect for the western and central Tiwi Islands.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Wadeye to Troughton Island, Australia.  The Watch includes Kalumburu.

Tropical Cyclone Fina brought wind and rain to the area around Darwin, Australia on Saturday.  The core of Fina’s circulation, where the strongest winds were, was passing to the northwest of Darwin.  A weather station at the Darwin Airport reported a sustained wind speed of 37 m.p.h. (57 km/h) and a wind gust to 53 m.p.h. (85 km/h).  The weather station also measure 5.89 inches (149.6 mm) of rain.

Tropical Cyclone Fina intensified to the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it moved over the Timor Sea.  A very small eye was present at the center of Fina’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Fina.  Storms near the core of Fina generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fina was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Fina’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Fina was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 24.0.  Tropical Cyclone Fina was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification while it moves over the Timor Sea during the next 24 hours.  Fina will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.   It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over northern Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Fina’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Fina could intensify during the next 24 hours.  Fina could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will move around the western end of a high pressure system over northern Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Fina toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.   On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina will move away from Darwin during the next 24 hours.   Fina will approach the coast of Western Australia northeast of Kalumburu in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to the coast of the Northern Territory of Australia southwest of Darwin.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Fina could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of the coast of the Northern Territory.

Flood Watches are in effect for the North West Coastal Rivers and the Bonaparte Coastal Rivers.

Tropical Cyclone Fina Crosses Cobourg Peninsula

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Tropical Cyclone Fina moved across the Cobourg Peninsula in northern Australia on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina was located at latitude 11.8°S and longitude 131.6°E which put the center about 80 miles (130 km) northeast of Darwin, Australia.   Fina was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).   The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

A Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Daly River Mouth to Cape Don, Australia.  The Warning includes Darwin.  A Warning is also in effect for the Tiwi Islands.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Wadeye to Daly River Mouth.

Tropical Cyclone Fina intensified a little after it crossed the Cobourg Peninsula and moved over the Van Dieman Gulf.  A small circular eye was at the center of Fina’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Fina.  Storms near the core of Fina generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fina was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Fina’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification while it moves over the Van Dieman Gulf during the next few hours. Fina will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over northern Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Fina’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Fina could intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will move around the western end of a high pressure system over northern Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Fina toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.   On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina will pass near Darwin in 12 hours.   Fina will move over the Timor Sea on Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the coast of the Northern Territory of Australia.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Fina could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along parts of the coast of the Northern Territory.

Flood Watches are in effect for the North West Coastal Rivers.

Tropical Cyclone Fina Moves Toward Northern Australia

Tropical Cyclone Fina started to move toward the coast of northern Australia on Thursday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina was located at latitude 10.4°S and longitude 132.4°E which put the center about 185 miles (300 km) northeast of Darwin, Australia and about 70 miles (110 km) north of Minjilang, Australia.  Fina was moving toward the west-southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

A Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Dundee Beach to Warruwi, Australia.  The Warning includes Darwin, Minjilang and the Cobourg Peninsula.  A Warning is also in effect for the Tiwi Islands.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Wadeye to Daly River Mouth.

Tropical Cyclone Fina strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon after it started to move toward the coast of northern Australia on Thursday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped most of the way around the center to Fina’s circulation.  A small circular eye appeared to be forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Fina’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Fina generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fina was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Fina’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fina will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over northern Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Fina’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Fina could continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will move around the western end of a high pressure system over northern Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Fina toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina will pass near the northwestern end of the Cobourg Peninsula in 12 hours.  The center of Fina could be near the eastern end of Melville Island in 24 hours.  Fina could reach Darwin in less than 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the coast of the Northern Territory of Australia.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Fina could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along parts of the coast of the Northern Territory.

Flood Watches are in effect for the North West Coastal Rivers.

Tropical Cyclone Fina Prompts Warning for North Coast of Australia

The risk posed by Tropical Cyclone Fina prompted the Australia Bureau of Meteorology to issue warnings and watches for portions of the northern coast of Australia on Tuesday night.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina was located at latitude 9.7°S and longitude 132.8°E which put the center about 225 miles (365 km) north-northeast of Darwin, Australia and about 105 miles (165 km) north of Minjilang, Australia.  Fina was moving toward the east at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

A Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Don to Warruwi, Australia including the Cobourg Peninsula and Minjilang.

A Watch is in effect for the Tiwi Islands.  A Watch is also in effect for the portion of the coast from Maningrida to Milingimbi, Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Fina strengthened as it moved over the Arafura Sea north of Australia on Tuesday night.  Thunderstorms continued to develop near the center of Fina’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina.  Storms near the center of Fina’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fina was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Fina’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fina will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move though a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Fina will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Fina could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will move around the southern side of a narrow high pressure system that is near the Equator.  The high pressure system will steer Fina slowly toward the east during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fina will move parallel to the northern coast of Australia.  Fina will start to move south toward the coast of the Northern Territory of Australia on Thursday.

Tropical Cyclone Fina is likely to reach the northern coast of the Northern Territory of Australia within 36 hours.  Fina will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the coast.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Fina could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along parts of the coast of the Northern Territory.

A Flood Watch is in effect for areas across the northwest Top End of Australia.

 

Tropical Cyclone Fina Forms North of Darwin

Tropical Cyclone Fina formed over the western Arafura Sea north of Darwin, Australia on Tuesday.  At 1:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina was located at latitude 9.7°S and longitude 131.6°E which put the center about 195 miles (315 km) north-northeast of Darwin, Australia and about 120 miles (195 km) north-northwest of Minjilang, Australia.  Fina was moving toward the east-northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A low pressure system over the western Arafura Sea strengthened on Tuesday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Fina.

Tropical Cyclone Fina was strengthening on Tuesday.  More thunderstorms were forming near the center of Fina’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also developing in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Fina.  Storms near the center of Fina’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fina was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Fina’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fina will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move though a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Fina will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will move around the southern side of a narrow high pressure system that is near the Equator.  The high pressure system will steer Fina slowly toward the east-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fina will move parallel to the northern coast of Australia.  Fina is forecast to move south toward Australia later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Fina could affect the northern coast of the Northern Territory of Australia later this week.  Fina is likely to bring strong winds and heavy rain to the coast.  Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone 05S Moves South of Cocos Islands

Tropical Cyclone 05S moved south of the Cocos Islands in the South Indian Ocean on Friday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone 05S was located at latitude 14.2°S and longitude 96.6°E which put the center about 125 miles (200 km) south of the Cocos Islands.  Tropical Cyclone 05S was moving toward the south at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Cyclone 05S was moving under the western end of an upper level ridge that extended from Australia to the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge was producing northeasterly winds that were blowing toward the top of the tropical cyclone.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone 05S to be asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western and southern parts of the tropical cyclone.  Bands in the northern and eastern parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The distribution of winds speeds around Tropical Cyclone 05S was also symmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) in the southwestern quadrant of the tropical cyclone.  The winds in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone 05S were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone 05S will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical cyclone will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will continue to move under the western part of an upper level ridge that extends from Australia to the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will continue to produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Cyclone 05S.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone 05S is likely to start to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 05S will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone 05S will move farther away from the Cocos Islands on Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone 05S Forms West of Cocos Islands

Tropical Cyclone 05S formed over the South Indian Ocean west of the Cocos Islands on Thursday evening.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone 05S was located at latitude 12.1°S and longitude 95.2°E which put the center about 140 miles (225 km) east of the Cocos Islands.  Tropical Cyclone 05S was moving toward the east at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean west of the Cocos Islands strengthened on Thursday evening and the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center designated the system as Tropical Cyclone 05S.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as a Tropical Low.

The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone 05S was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the tropical cyclone.  Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone 05S consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west and south of the tropical cyclone.

The distribution of winds speeds around Tropical Cyclone 05S was also symmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) in the western half of the tropical cyclone.  The winds in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone 05S were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone 05S will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical cyclone will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that extends from Australia to the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Cyclone 05S.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone 05S could intensify during the next 24 hours, if the upper level winds do not get any stronger.

Tropical Cyclone 05S will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone 05S will pass southwest of the Cocos Islands on Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek Moves West of Cocos Islands

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek moved west of Cocos Islands on Thursday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Anggrek was located at latitude 12.3°S and longitude 93.1°E which put it about 250 miles (400 km) west of Cocos Islands. Anggrek was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek did not change much during the past 24 hours. The inner end of a rainband was still wrapped around the western and northern sides of the center of Anggrek’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Anggrek. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (126 km) from the center of Anggrek’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek will move through an environment a little more favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Anggrek will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the eastern section of the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Anggrek toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Anggrek will move farther west of Cocos Islands on Friday.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Belal meandered south-southeast of Rodrigues. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Belal was located at latitude 23.9°S and longitude 65.5°E which put it about 315 miles (510 km) south-southeast of Port Mathurin, Rodigues. Belal was moving toward the northeast at 4 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.