Tag Archives: St. Denis

Tropical Cyclone Honde Lingers Near Southern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Honde lingered near southern Madagascar on Sunday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde was located at latitude 27.1°S and longitude 46.1°E which put the center about 195 miles (315 km) south of Ambovombe, Madagascar.  Honde was moving toward the southeast at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Honde was the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it lingered near southern Madagascar on Sunday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) was at the center of Honde’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde.  Storms near the center of Honde generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The divergence of mass in the upper levels of the atmosphere was almost balanced by the inflow of mass in the lower levels of Tropical Cyclone Honde.  As a result, the surface pressure was not changing much.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Honde was smaller on Sunday.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) in the southern half of Honde’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde.

Tropical Cyclone Honde will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Honde will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough near southern Africa.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Honde’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Honde will likely maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough near southern Africa will steer Tropical Cyclone Honde toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde will gradually move farther away from southern Madagascar.

Bands in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Honde will continue to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern Madagascar during the next 24 hours.  Additional heavy rain will likely cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Southwest Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Garance was making a transformation to and extratropical cyclone far to the south of La Reunion.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance was located at latitude 33.8°S and longitude 59.9°E which put the center about 925 miles (1495 km) south-southeast of St. Denis, La, Reunion.  Garance was moving toward the southeast at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Honde Brings Wind and Rain to Southern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Honde continued to bring wind and rain to southern Madagascar on Saturday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde was located at latitude 26.9°S and longitude 45.3°E which put the center about 120 miles (195 km) south of Tsiombe, Madagascar.  Honde was moving toward the southeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

Bands in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Honde continued to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern Madagascar on Saturday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 24 miles (38 km) was at the center of Honde’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde.  Storms near the center of Honde generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The divergence of mass in the upper levels of the atmosphere was almost balanced by the inflow of mass in the lower levels of Tropical Cyclone Honde.  As a result, the surface pressure was not changing much.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Honde was large.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) in the southern half of Honde’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 220 miles (350 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Honde was 10.4.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 22.9.  Tropical Cyclone Honde was similar in intensity to Hurricane Dolly when Dolly hit south Texas in 2008.

Tropical Cyclone Honde will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Honde will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough near southern Africa.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Honde’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Honde will likely maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough near southern Africa will steer Tropical Cyclone Honde slowly toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde will move a little farther away from southern Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Honde will continue to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern Madagascar during the next 24 hours.  Prolonged heavy rain will likely cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Southwest Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Garance was weakening as it moved farther to the south of La Reunion.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance was located at latitude 28.6°S and longitude 55.0°E which put the center about 505 miles (815 km) south of St. Denis, La, Reunion.  Garance was moving toward the south at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Garance Batters La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Garance battered La Reunion on Friday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance was located at latitude 21.8°S and longitude 55.4°E which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) south-southeast of St. Denis, La, Reunion.  Garance was moving toward the south at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

The core of Tropical Cyclone Garance moved directly over La Reunion on Friday.  Roland Garros airport (FMEE) measured a sustained wind speed of 61 knots (70 m.p.h. or 113 km/h) and a wind gust of 83 knots (95 m.p.h. or 154 km/h).

Tropical Cyclone Garance dropped very heavy rain on La Reunion.  There were reports of flooding.  Roland Garros airport (FMEE) measured 6.48 inches (164.6 mm) of rain.  A weather station at Piton-Maido reported 18.49 inches (469.6 mm) of rain.  A weather station at Cilaos reported 17.06 inches (433.4 mm) of rain.

Tropical Cyclone Garance was a small tropical cyclone when it hit La Reunion.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Garance’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Garance was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8,8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.6.  Tropical Cyclone Garance was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Garance will be pulled around the eastern side of the larger circulation around Tropical Cyclone Honde.  Garance will move toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Garance will move south of La Reunion later today.

Tropical Cyclone Garance will weaken significantly during its passage over La Reunion.  Tropical Cyclone Garance will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Garance will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, it will move under the upper level outflow from Tropical Cyclone Honde.  The upper level outflow from Honde’s circulation will cause the vertical wind shear to increase over Garance.  The increase in vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Garance to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Elsewhere over the Southwest Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Honde brought strong winds and heavy rain  to southern Madagascar.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde was located at latitude 26.1°S and longitude 44.0°E which put the center about 190 miles (305 km) south of Toliara, Madagascar.  Honde was moving toward the east-southeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Garance Intensifies to Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Garance intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane north of La Reunion on Thursday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance was located at latitude 18.5°S and longitude 55.4°E which put the center about 155 miles (205 km) north of St. Denis, La, Reunion.  Garance was moving toward the southeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). 0 The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Garance intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane north of La Reunion on Thursday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Garance’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Garance’s circulation.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Garance was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Garance’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Garance was 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.4. Tropical Cyclone Garance was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dennis when Dennis hit Northwest Florida in 2005.

Tropical Cyclone Garance will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Garance will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under an upper level ridge that is east of Madagascar.  The upper level winds are weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Garance could continue to intensify during the next 12 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs.

Tropical Cyclone Garance is likely to get pulled into the eastern side of the larger circulation around Tropical Cyclone Honde, which is over the southern Mozambique Channel.  The larger circulation around Honde will steer Garance toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Garance will reach La Reunion within the next 18 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Garance is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches La Reunion.  Garance will be capable of causing major damage on La Reunion.  Tropical Cyclone Garance will also drop heavy rain on La Reunion.  Heavy rain is likely to cause widespread flash flooding.  Garance could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast of La Reunion.

Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Garance could also bring strong winds and heavy rain to Mauritius.  There were reports that the airport on Mauritius was closed as a precaution.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Honde intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the southern Mozambique Channel near Madagascar.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde was located at latitude 25.0°S and longitude 41.8°E which put the center about 170 miles (280 km) southwest of Toliara, Madagascar.  Honde was moving toward the southeast at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Honde will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Garance Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Garance intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon north-northwest of La Reunion on Wednesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 54.7°E which put the center about 200 miles (325 km) north-northwest of St. Denis, La, Reunion.  Garance was moving toward the east-southeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Garance rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Southwest Indian Ocean north-northwest of La Reunion on Wednesday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Garance’s circulation.  A small circular eye appeared to be forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance.  The developing eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Garance’s circulation.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Garance was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Garance’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Garance was 16.5  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.7.  Tropical Cyclone Garance was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.

Tropical Cyclone Garance will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Garance will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the northern side of an upper level low that is southeast of La Reunion.  The upper level low will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Garance’s circulation.  Those winds will some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Garance will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Garance is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Garance could get pulled into the eastern side of the larger circulation around Tropical Cyclone Honde, which is over the Mozambique Channel.  The larger circulation around Honde will steer Garance toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Garance will approach La Reunion in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Garance is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches La Reunion.  Garance will be capable of causing major damage on La Reunion.  Tropical Cyclone Garance will also drop heavy rain on La Reunion.  Heavy rain is likely to cause widespread flash flooding.  Garance could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast of La Reunion.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Honde was intensifying over the Mozambique Channel.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde was located at latitude 24.1°S and longitude 40.2°E which put the center about 255 miles (410 km) west of Toliara, Madagascar. Honde was moving toward the east-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Garance Forms Northwest of La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Garance formed over the Southwest Indian Ocean northwest of La Reunion on Tuesday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance was located at latitude 18.3°S and longitude 52.1°E which put the center about 270 miles (435 km) northwest of St. Denis, La, Reunion.  Garance was moving toward the east-northeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A low pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean northwest of La Reunion strengthened on Tuesday morning and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Garance.  The distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical in Tropical Cyclone Garance.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western and northern parts of Garance’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern and southern parts of Tropical Cyclone Garance consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Garance began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Garance was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Garance’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Garance will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Garance will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the northwestern side of an upper level low that is southeast of La Reunion.  The upper level low will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Garance’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Garance will intensify during the next 24 hours.

The upper level low southeast of La Reunion will steer Tropical Cyclone Garance slowly toward the east during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Garance will approach La Reunion and Mauritius in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Garance could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it approaches La Reunion and Mauritius.

Elsewhere over the Southwest Indian Ocean, a tropical depression formed over the Mozambique Channel.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of the tropical depression was located at latitude 22.9°S and longitude 37.1°E which put the center about 405 miles (655 km) west of Toliara, Madagascar.   The tropical depression was moving toward the south-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi Passes South of La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi passed far to the south of La Reunion on Thursday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was located at latitude 32.3°S and longitude 50.3°E which put the center about 795 miles (1235 km) south-southwest of St. Denis, La Reunion.  Dikeledi was moving toward the east-southeast at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi began to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone on Thursday as it moved over the Southwest Indian Ocean far to the south of La Reunion.  An eye was no longer visible at the center of Dikeledi’s circulation.  Microwave satellite images still showed evidence of the former eyewall.  The strongest winds were occurring in the former eyewall.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southeastern part of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.  Bands in the other parts of Dikeledi’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi increased on Thursday, when Dikeledi started the transition to an extratropical cyclone.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Dikeledi.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dikeledi will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over southern Africa.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dikeledi’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will weaken during the next 24 hours.  Cooler Sea Surface Temperatures and moderate vertical wind shear will cause Dikeledi to continue to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough over southern Africa will steer Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dikeldi will pass far to the south of Mauritius on Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Belal Brings Strong Winds, Heavy Rain to La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Belal brought strong winds and heavy rain to La Reunion on Monday. A Red Alert was in effect for La Reunion. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Belal was located at latitude 21.5°S and longitude 56.5°E which put it about 75 miles (120 km) southeast of St. Denis, La Reunion. Belal was moving toward the southeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Belal produced strong winds and dropped heavy rain in La Reunion on Monday. A weather station at Roland Garros Airport in St.Denis, La Reunion reported a sustained wind speed of 56 kt (64 m.p.h. or 104 km/h) and a wind gust of 76 kt (87 m.p.h. or 141 km/h). A weather station at Plaines Des Palmistes measured 698.8 mm (27.51 inches) of rain during the past 24 hours. A weather station at Bellecombe-Jacob measured 667.4 mm (26.27 inches) of rain during the past 24 hours. The weather station at Roland Garros Airport reported 189.9 mm (7.47 inches) of rain during the past 24 hours.

There were also reports of heavy rain and flooding in Mauritius. A weather station at Quatre Bornes, Mauritius reported 176.9 mm (6.96 inches) of rain during the past 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Belal was the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Belal’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Belal was 12.7. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 25.2. Tropical Cyclone Belal was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dolly when Dolly hit south Texas in 2008.

Tropical Cyclone Belal will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Belal will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Belal’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear is likely to cause Tropical Cyclone Belal to weaken gradually during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Belal will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Belal toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Belal will move slowly away from La Reunion during the next 24 hours. The center of Belal’s circulation will be south of Mauritius later today.

The strong winds will gradually weaken over La Reunion as Tropical Cyclone Belal moves farther away. Heavy rain will also diminish. Gust winds and locally heavy rain will continue to affect Mauritius during the next 24 hours. Prolonged heavy rain will cause additional flooding in Mauritius.

Tropical Cyclone Belal Nears La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Belal neared La Reunion on Sunday night. A Violet Alert was in effect for La Reunion. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Belal was located at latitude 20.7°S and longitude 54.8°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) west of St. Denis, La Reunion. Belal was moving toward the southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Belal intensified to the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it approached La Reunion on Sunday. A small eye was present at the center of Belal’s circulation on some microwave satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Belal. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Belal was relatively small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Belal’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Belal was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 25.6. Tropical Cyclone Belal was capable of causing localized serious damage.

Tropical Cyclone Belal will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Belal will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Belal’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear could prevent Tropical Cyclone Belal from intensifying on Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Belal will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Belal toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Belal will reach La Reunion during the next few hours. Tropical Cyclone Belal will bring strong winds and heavy rain to La Reunion. The core of Belal’s circulation with the strongest winds could pass directly over La Reunion. The strong winds will be capable of causing serious damage. Heavy rain will likely cause flash floods in some location. Belal could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of the coast of La Reunion. Bands in the northern part of Tropical Cyclone Belal will also bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Mauritius.

Tropical Cyclone Belal Strengthens to Equivalent of a Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Belal strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Southwest Indian Ocean on Saturday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Belal was located at latitude 18.4°S and longitude 53.5°E which put it about 200 miles (325 km) northwest of St. Denis, la Reunion. Belal was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Belal strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Southwest Indian Ocean northwest of la Reunion on Saturday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern and eastern sides of the center Belal’s circulation. An eye appeared to be forming at the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the core of Tropical Cyclone Belal. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Belal was more symmetrical on Saturday. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Belal’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Belal was 11.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 21.6.

Tropical Cyclone Belal will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Belal will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Belal will continue to intensify on Sunday. Belal could intensify rapidly after an inner core with an eye and an eyewall is fully developed. Tropical Cyclone Belal could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Belal will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Belal toward the southeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Belal could reach la Reunion in 36 hours. Belal could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches la Reunion. Tropical Cyclone Belal will bring strong winds and heavy rain to la Reunion. The strong winds will be capable of causing major damage. Heavy rain will likely cause flash floods in some location. Belal could cause a storm surge of up to 12 feet (3.6 meters) along parts of the coast of la Reunion. Tropical Cyclone Belal will also bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Mauritius.