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Tropical Cyclone Fili Brings Wind and Rain to New Caledonia

Tropical Cyclone Fili brought gusty winds and rain to New Caledonia on Wednesday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fili was located at latitude 22.9°S and longitude 164.7°E which put it about 115 miles (185 km) west-southwest of Noumea, New Caledonia. Fili was moving toward the south-southeast at 9 m.p.h (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Bands in the eastern half of Tropical Cyclone Fili brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to New Caledonia on Wednesday. The core of Fili’s circulation with the strongest winds passed just west of New Caledonia. Tropical Cyclone Fili began to weaken slowly on Wednesday evening, but the circulation remained well organized. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Fili’s circulation. Bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Fili consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of Fili.

Tropical Cyclone Fili will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Fili will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26˚C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce stronger northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fili’s circulation during the next two days. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear. Drier air in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Fili will inhibit the formation of thunderstorms in that part of the circulation. The combination of more vertical wind shear and drier air will cause Tropical Cyclone Fili to weaken during the next 36 hours. Fili could begin to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone when it moves farther south where the Sea Surface Temperatures are colder.

Tropical Cyclone Fili will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean during the next 36 hours. The high pressure system will steer Fili toward the southeast during that time period. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Fili will move away from New Caledonia during the next 36 hours. The gusty winds and locally heavy rain will diminish when Fili moves farther away from New Caledonia.

Tropical Cyclone Fili Strengthens Northwest of New Caledonia

Tropical Cyclone Fili strengthened over the Coral Sea northwest of New Caledonia on Tuesday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fili was located at latitude 19.8°S and longitude 162.5°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) west-northwest of Poum, New Caledonia. Fili was moving toward the south-southeast at 9 m.p.h (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fili strengthened on Tuesday as it moved over the Coral Sea northwest of New Caledonia. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Fili’s circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Even though Tropical Cyclone Fili strengthened, some drier air appeared to be pulled into the western half of its circulation. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Fili. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Fili. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the western half of Fili.

Tropical Cyclone Fili will move through an environment that will be mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Fili will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fili’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be large enough to prevent intensification. The drier air in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Fili will inhibit the formation of thunderstorms in that part of the circulation. The drier air will inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Fili could intensify during the next 24 hours, but the drier air could limit strengthening.

Tropical Cyclone Fili will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean during the next 36 hours. The high pressure system will steer Fili toward the south-southeast during that time period. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Fili will pass west of New Caledonia during the next 36 hours. Rainbands in the eastern half of Fili will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to New Caledonia. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Fili Develops Northwest of New Caledonia

Tropical Cyclone Fili developed over the Coral Sea northwest of New Caledonia on Monday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fili was located at latitude 18.0°S and longitude 160.4°E which put it about 250 miles (400 km) northwest of Poum, New Caledonia. Fili was moving toward the west-southwest at 11 m.p.h (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A low pressure system over the Coral Sea northwest of New Caledonia strengthened on Monday and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Fili. More thunderstorms developed near the center of Tropical Cyclone Fili but the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical. Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Fili’s circulation. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone. The wind field around Tropical Cyclone Fili was also asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 170 miles (280 km) in the northern half of the circulation. Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the southern half of Fili.

Tropical Cyclone Fili will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Fili will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fili’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Cyclone Fili is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours. It could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Fili will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean during the next 36 hours. The high pressure system will steer Fili toward the south during that time period. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Fili could move west of the northern end of New Caledonia within 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Niran Brings Wind and Rain to New Caledonia

Tropical Cyclone Niran brought wind and rain to New Caledonia on Friday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Niran was located at latitude 21.8°S and longitude 165.0°E which put it about 165 miles (265 km) west-northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia. Niran was moving toward the east-southeast at 29 m.p.h. (46 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Niran weakened during its approach to New Caledonia. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the original eye and eyewall, and concentric eyewalls formed. The maximum sustained wind speed decreased when the original, stronger eyewall weakened. Even though it weakened, Tropical Cyclone Niran was still the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Niran. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Niran was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 24.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 47.7. Niran was capable of causing major damage.

The core of Tropical Cyclone Niran was passing just to the west of New Caledonia. The strongest winds around the core of Niran were remaining just west of the island. Tropical Cyclone Niran was producing gusty winds and it was dropping locally heavy rain over New Caledonia. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

An upper level trough east of Australia will steer Tropical Cyclone Niran toward the east-southeast during the next two days. Niran will continue to weaken during that time period. The upper level trough will cause vertical wind shear and Tropical Cyclone Niran will move over cooler water. Weather conditions on New Caledonia should improve on Saturday when Niran moves rapidly away from the area.

Tropical Cyclone Niran Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Niran rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the Coral Sea on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Niran was located at latitude 19.4°S and longitude 160.2°E which put it about 505 miles (815 km) west-northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia. Niran was moving toward the east-southeast at 28 m.p.h. (44 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 922 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Niran continued to intensify rapidly over the Coral Sea on Friday morning even though it was moving quickly toward the east-southeast. A small circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Niran. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Niran. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

There was a large area of strong winds around Tropical Cyclone Niran. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Niran. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Niran was 35.0. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 24.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 59.3 Niran was capable of causing widespread catastrophic damage.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will move through an environment capable of supporting an intense tropical cyclone during the next 12 hours. Niran will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. It will move under the axis an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea. The winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Niran could maintain its intensity during the next 12 hours. Niran will begin to weaken when its circulation begins to interact with New Caledonia. An upper level trough near eastern Australia will approach Tropical Cyclone Niran in about 24 hours. The trough will produce northwesterly winds and the wind shear will begin to increase. More shear will cause Niran to start to weaken more quickly on Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the tropical South Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Niran quickly toward the southeast during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Niran will begin to affect New Caledonia within 12 hours. Niran will be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches New Caledonia. The track of Tropical Cyclone Niran will cause it to bring very strong winds, a significant storm surge and heavy rain to all of New Caledonia. Tropical Cyclone Niran will be capable of causing widespread catastrophic damage to New Caledonia. Niran could cause a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along portions of the coast where the wind blows water toward the shore. It will drop heavy rain and flash floods are likely to occur.

Tropical Cyclone Niran Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Niran intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Thursday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Niran was located at latitude 17.2°S and longitude 155.6°E which put it about 580 miles (935 km) east of Cairns, Australia. Niran was moving toward the east-southeast at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 946 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Niran intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the Coral Sea west of New Caledonia on Thursday night. A small circular eye with a diameter of 14 miles (22 km) was present at the center of Niran. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Niran. Storms around the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

There was a large area of strong winds around Tropical Cyclone Niran. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Niran. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Niran was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 25.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 49.1. Tropical Cyclone Niran was capable of causing widespread major damage.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Niran will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. It will move under the axis an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea. The winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Niran could continue to intensify during the next 12 hours. An upper level trough near eastern Australia will approach Niran in about 24 hours. The trough will produce northwesterly winds and the wind shear will begin to increase. More shear will cause Niran to start to weaken on Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the tropical South Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Niran toward the southeast during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Niran could approach New Caledonia in 24 hours. Niran could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it approaches New Caledonia. Tropical Cyclone Niran will be capable of causing widespread major damage to New Caledonia. Niran will also drop heavy rain and flash floods are likely to occur.

Tropical Cyclone Niran Strengthens over the Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Niran strengthened over the Coral Sea on Wednesday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Niran was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 149.2°E which put it about 225 miles (365 km) east-northeast of Cairns, Australia. Niran was moving toward the east at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Niran continued to intensify over the Coral Sea on Wednesday. A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) developed at the center of Niran. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Niran. The strongest rainbands were in the northern half of Niran. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Niran expanded in size on Wednesday. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Niran. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 230 miles (370 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Niran was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 19.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 36.2.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Niran will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. It will move under an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea. The winds are weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Niran will continue to intensify during the next 24 hours. It is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the tropical South Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Niran toward the southeast during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Niran could approach New Caledonia in 48 hours. Niran could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it approaches New Caledonia.

Tropical Cyclone Niran Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Niran strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Coral Sea east of Queensland on Tuesday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Niran was located at latitude 14.7°S and longitude 148.3°E which put it about 225 miles (365 km) northeast of Cairns, Australia. Niran was moving toward the east at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Niran strengthened over the Coral Sea on Tuesday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Niran. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the core of Tropical Cyclone Niran. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Niran. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Niran will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. It will move under an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea. The winds are weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Niran will continue to intensify during the next 36 hours. It could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the tropical South Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Niran toward the southeast during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Niran could approach New Caledonia in about three days.

Tropical Cyclone Niran Develops over Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Niran developed over the Coral Sea east of Queensland on Monday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Niran was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 147.0°E which put it about 175 miles (285 km) northeast of Cairns, Australia. Niran was moving toward the northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the Coral Sea east of Queensland strengthened on Monday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Niran. The circulation around Niran was organizing gradually. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Niran. Bands in the eastern half of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the west of Niran. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Niran will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Niran. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and they are contributing to the current asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. The wind shear will slow the rate of intensification. Tropical Cyclone Niran will intensify and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next day or so. Niran could make a slow loop over the Coral Sea east of Queensland during the next 24 hours. A high pressure system over the tropical South Pacific Ocean will strengthen during the week. The high will start to steer Tropical Cyclone Niran toward the southeast on Wednesday. On its anticipated track Niran could approach New Caledonia during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Gretel Speeds By New Caledonia

Tropical Cyclone Gretel sped by New Caledonia on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gretel was located at latitude 25.9°S and longitude 169.4°E which put it about 750 miles (1210 km) north-northwest of Auckland, New Zealand.  Gretel was moving toward the southeast at 37 m.p.h. (60 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gretel moved around the western end of high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean.  The high steered Gretel rapidly toward the southeast and the tropical cyclone sped over the Coral Sea west of New Caledonia.  Rainbands on the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Gretel brought wind and rain to portions of New Caledonia on Sunday.

An upper level ridge produced strong northwesterly winds which created strong vertical wind shear.  The wind shear tilted the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Gretel toward the southeast and Gretel began to weaken.  The stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands south and east of the center of Gretel.  Bands in other parts of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The wind field around Gretel expanded when the tropical cyclone started to weaken.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Gretel will continue to move rapidly toward the southeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Gretel could pass north of New Zealand in 24 to 36 hours.

Elsewhere, over the South Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Herold strengthened east of Madagascar.  At 5:00 p.m EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Herold was located at latitude 15.5°S and longitude 53.2°E which put it about 405 miles (655 km) west-northwest of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Herold was moving toward the east-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.  Tropical Cyclone Herold could reach Rodrigues in about 48 hours.