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Tropical Cyclone Hidaya Makes Landfall in Tanzania

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya made landfall in Tanzania on Saturday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Hidaya was located at latitude 7.5°S and longitude 38.4°E which put it about 40 miles (650 km) south of the Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Hidaya was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya made landfall on the coast of Tanzania south of Dar es Salaam on Saturday. The center of Hidaya’s circulation crossed the coast near Kisiju. Tropical Cyclone Hidaya was the equivalent of a tropical storm at the time of landfall. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of Hidaya’s circulation. Tropical Cyclone Hidaya brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the southeastern part of Tanzania.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean and southern Africa. The high pressure system will steer Hidaya toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will move farther inland over southern Tanzania.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will weaken rapidly as it moves farther inland. Hidaya will move into a region of drier air which will cause it to weaken rapidly as it moves inland. Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will continue to produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain over parts of southern Tanzania during the next 24 hours. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya Nears Tanzania

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya neared the coast of Tanzania on Friday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Hidaya was located at latitude 7.8°S and longitude 40.5°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) southeast of the Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Hidaya was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya started to weaken on Friday as it approached the coast of Tanzania. Westerly winds blowing around the northern side of Hidaya’s circulation pulled drier air that was over Africa into the tropical cyclone. The drier air circulated around the northern and eastern parts of Tropical Cyclone Hidaya. When the drier air reached rainbands in those parts of Hidaya’s circulation, some of the thunderstorms weakened. When the thunderstorms weakened, the upper level divergence decreased. Less mass was pumped away from the tropical cyclone and the surface pressure started to increase.

Even though Tropical Cyclone Hidaya started to weaken, its circulation was still well organized. A small circular eye was evident at the center of Hidaya’s circulation in infrared satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a narrow ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were still occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Hidaya. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Hidaya’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will move through an environment that will become more unfavorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Hidaya will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will pull more drier air that is currently over Africa into its circulation as it moves closer to the coast of Tanzania. The drier air is likely to cause more thunderstorms to weaken, which will further decrease the upper level divergence. The surface pressure will continue to increase as the upper level divergence decreases. Tropical Cyclone Hidaya is likely to continue to weaken during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the Hidaya toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will approach the coast of Tanzania near Dar es Salaam in 12 hours. Hidaya will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to eastern Tanzania. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Hidaya will also bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Zanzibar and Mafia Island. Tropical Cyclone Hidaya could also produce a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast of Tanzania.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean east of Tanzania on Thursday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Hidaya was located at latitude 8.7°S and longitude 43.0°E which put it about 295 miles (475 km) east-southeast of the Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Hidaya was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya rapidly intensified from the equivalent of a tropical storm to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Thursday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Hidaya’s circulation. A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Hidaya. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Hidaya. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Hidaya was symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Hidaya’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Hidaya.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Hidaya will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Hidaya is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours. Hidaya could continue to intensify rapidly and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the Hidaya toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will move toward the coast of Tanzania. Hidaya could approach the coast near Dar es Salaam on Saturday. Hidaya could bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to eastern Tanzania. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Hidaya could also produce a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast of Tanzania.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya Develops East of Tanzania

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya developed over the South Indian Ocean east of Tanzania on Wednesday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Hidaya was located at latitude 8.6°S and longitude 45.0°E which put it about 2250 miles (360 km) north-northeast of the Comoros. Hidaya was moving toward the west at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A former tropical depression over the South Indian Ocean north-northeast of Comoros strengthened on Wednesday and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Hidaya. Thunderstorms were occurring near the center of Hidaya’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center of Hidaya generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Hidaya.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Hidaya will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the western end of the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Hidaya is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the Hidaya toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will move north of Comoros on Thursday. Hidaya will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Comoros. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Hidaya could approach the coast of Africa near southern Tanzania and northern Mozambique later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Fili Brings Wind and Rain to New Caledonia

Tropical Cyclone Fili brought gusty winds and rain to New Caledonia on Wednesday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fili was located at latitude 22.9°S and longitude 164.7°E which put it about 115 miles (185 km) west-southwest of Noumea, New Caledonia. Fili was moving toward the south-southeast at 9 m.p.h (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Bands in the eastern half of Tropical Cyclone Fili brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to New Caledonia on Wednesday. The core of Fili’s circulation with the strongest winds passed just west of New Caledonia. Tropical Cyclone Fili began to weaken slowly on Wednesday evening, but the circulation remained well organized. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Fili’s circulation. Bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Fili consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of Fili.

Tropical Cyclone Fili will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Fili will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26˚C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce stronger northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fili’s circulation during the next two days. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear. Drier air in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Fili will inhibit the formation of thunderstorms in that part of the circulation. The combination of more vertical wind shear and drier air will cause Tropical Cyclone Fili to weaken during the next 36 hours. Fili could begin to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone when it moves farther south where the Sea Surface Temperatures are colder.

Tropical Cyclone Fili will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean during the next 36 hours. The high pressure system will steer Fili toward the southeast during that time period. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Fili will move away from New Caledonia during the next 36 hours. The gusty winds and locally heavy rain will diminish when Fili moves farther away from New Caledonia.

Tropical Cyclone Fili Strengthens Northwest of New Caledonia

Tropical Cyclone Fili strengthened over the Coral Sea northwest of New Caledonia on Tuesday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fili was located at latitude 19.8°S and longitude 162.5°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) west-northwest of Poum, New Caledonia. Fili was moving toward the south-southeast at 9 m.p.h (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fili strengthened on Tuesday as it moved over the Coral Sea northwest of New Caledonia. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Fili’s circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Even though Tropical Cyclone Fili strengthened, some drier air appeared to be pulled into the western half of its circulation. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Fili. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Fili. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the western half of Fili.

Tropical Cyclone Fili will move through an environment that will be mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Fili will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fili’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be large enough to prevent intensification. The drier air in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Fili will inhibit the formation of thunderstorms in that part of the circulation. The drier air will inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Fili could intensify during the next 24 hours, but the drier air could limit strengthening.

Tropical Cyclone Fili will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean during the next 36 hours. The high pressure system will steer Fili toward the south-southeast during that time period. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Fili will pass west of New Caledonia during the next 36 hours. Rainbands in the eastern half of Fili will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to New Caledonia. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Fili Develops Northwest of New Caledonia

Tropical Cyclone Fili developed over the Coral Sea northwest of New Caledonia on Monday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fili was located at latitude 18.0°S and longitude 160.4°E which put it about 250 miles (400 km) northwest of Poum, New Caledonia. Fili was moving toward the west-southwest at 11 m.p.h (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A low pressure system over the Coral Sea northwest of New Caledonia strengthened on Monday and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Fili. More thunderstorms developed near the center of Tropical Cyclone Fili but the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical. Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Fili’s circulation. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone. The wind field around Tropical Cyclone Fili was also asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 170 miles (280 km) in the northern half of the circulation. Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the southern half of Fili.

Tropical Cyclone Fili will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Fili will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fili’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Cyclone Fili is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours. It could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Fili will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean during the next 36 hours. The high pressure system will steer Fili toward the south during that time period. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Fili could move west of the northern end of New Caledonia within 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Niran Brings Wind and Rain to New Caledonia

Tropical Cyclone Niran brought wind and rain to New Caledonia on Friday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Niran was located at latitude 21.8°S and longitude 165.0°E which put it about 165 miles (265 km) west-northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia. Niran was moving toward the east-southeast at 29 m.p.h. (46 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Niran weakened during its approach to New Caledonia. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the original eye and eyewall, and concentric eyewalls formed. The maximum sustained wind speed decreased when the original, stronger eyewall weakened. Even though it weakened, Tropical Cyclone Niran was still the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Niran. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Niran was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 24.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 47.7. Niran was capable of causing major damage.

The core of Tropical Cyclone Niran was passing just to the west of New Caledonia. The strongest winds around the core of Niran were remaining just west of the island. Tropical Cyclone Niran was producing gusty winds and it was dropping locally heavy rain over New Caledonia. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

An upper level trough east of Australia will steer Tropical Cyclone Niran toward the east-southeast during the next two days. Niran will continue to weaken during that time period. The upper level trough will cause vertical wind shear and Tropical Cyclone Niran will move over cooler water. Weather conditions on New Caledonia should improve on Saturday when Niran moves rapidly away from the area.

Tropical Cyclone Niran Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Niran rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the Coral Sea on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Niran was located at latitude 19.4°S and longitude 160.2°E which put it about 505 miles (815 km) west-northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia. Niran was moving toward the east-southeast at 28 m.p.h. (44 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 922 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Niran continued to intensify rapidly over the Coral Sea on Friday morning even though it was moving quickly toward the east-southeast. A small circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Niran. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Niran. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

There was a large area of strong winds around Tropical Cyclone Niran. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Niran. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Niran was 35.0. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 24.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 59.3 Niran was capable of causing widespread catastrophic damage.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will move through an environment capable of supporting an intense tropical cyclone during the next 12 hours. Niran will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. It will move under the axis an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea. The winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Niran could maintain its intensity during the next 12 hours. Niran will begin to weaken when its circulation begins to interact with New Caledonia. An upper level trough near eastern Australia will approach Tropical Cyclone Niran in about 24 hours. The trough will produce northwesterly winds and the wind shear will begin to increase. More shear will cause Niran to start to weaken more quickly on Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the tropical South Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Niran quickly toward the southeast during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Niran will begin to affect New Caledonia within 12 hours. Niran will be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches New Caledonia. The track of Tropical Cyclone Niran will cause it to bring very strong winds, a significant storm surge and heavy rain to all of New Caledonia. Tropical Cyclone Niran will be capable of causing widespread catastrophic damage to New Caledonia. Niran could cause a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along portions of the coast where the wind blows water toward the shore. It will drop heavy rain and flash floods are likely to occur.

Tropical Cyclone Niran Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Niran intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Thursday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Niran was located at latitude 17.2°S and longitude 155.6°E which put it about 580 miles (935 km) east of Cairns, Australia. Niran was moving toward the east-southeast at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 946 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Niran intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the Coral Sea west of New Caledonia on Thursday night. A small circular eye with a diameter of 14 miles (22 km) was present at the center of Niran. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Niran. Storms around the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

There was a large area of strong winds around Tropical Cyclone Niran. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Niran. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Niran was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 25.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 49.1. Tropical Cyclone Niran was capable of causing widespread major damage.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Niran will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. It will move under the axis an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea. The winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Niran could continue to intensify during the next 12 hours. An upper level trough near eastern Australia will approach Niran in about 24 hours. The trough will produce northwesterly winds and the wind shear will begin to increase. More shear will cause Niran to start to weaken on Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the tropical South Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Niran toward the southeast during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Niran could approach New Caledonia in 24 hours. Niran could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it approaches New Caledonia. Tropical Cyclone Niran will be capable of causing widespread major damage to New Caledonia. Niran will also drop heavy rain and flash floods are likely to occur.