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Tropical Cyclone Jobo Moves Toward Tanzania

Tropical Cyclone Jobo moved toward Tanzania on Thursday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jobo was located at latitude 9.1°S and longitude 43.6°E which put it about 335 miles (535 km) east-southeast of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Jobo was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

The intensity and organization of Tropical Cyclone Jobo fluctuated during the past 48 hours as the strength of the upper level winds changed. At times Jobo intensified to the equivalent of a strong tropical storm when the upper levels winds diminished. Whenever the upper level winds were stronger, vertical wind shear caused the circulation to weaken. Tropical Cyclone Jobo was intensifying again on Thursday night. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern and western sides of the center of circulation. Thunderstorms near the center generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Jobo was small, which was why vertical wind shear had such a big effect on the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Jobo will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Jobo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. Jobo will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over southern Africa and the Southwest Indian Ocean. The winds are weaker near the middle of the ridge and there will be less vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Jobo could strengthen during the next 36 hours, but any increase in the wind shear could cause the small circulation to weaken again.

Tropical Cyclone Jobo will move around the northern side of a subtropical high pressure system over southern Africa. The high will steer Jobo toward the west-northwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Jobo could approach the coast of Tanzania in 36 hours.