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Tropical Cyclone Jude Nears Southern Madagascar

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Tropical Cyclone Jude was nearing southern Madagascar on Friday morning.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude was located at latitude 23.3°S and longitude 42.1°E which put the center about 110 miles (175 km) west of Toliara, Madagascar.  Jude was moving toward the east-southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jude was intensifying gradually as it neared the coast of southern Madagascar on Friday morning.  Thunderstorms were occurring near the center of Jude’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude.  Storms near the center of Jude’s circulation pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jude remained relatively the same.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Jude’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Jude will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean near Madagascar.  The upper level ridge will produce west-northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Jude’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Jude could intensify a little more during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean . The high pressure system will steer Jude toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude will reach the coast of southern Madagascar just to the south of Toliara in 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will be the equivalent of a tropical storm when it reaches the southern coast of Madagascar.  Jude will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Jude could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) on the west coast of Madagascar.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ivone made a transition to an extratropical cyclone south-southeast of Rodrigues.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ivone was located at latitude 25.1°S and longitude 65.6°E which put the center about 395 miles (640 km) south-southeast of Rodrigues.  Ivone was moving toward the west-southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jude Moves Back over Mozambique Channel

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Tropical Cyclone Jude moved back over the Mozambique Channel on Wednesday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude was located at latitude 19.9°S and longitude 37.8°E which put the center about 450 miles (725 km) west-northwest of Toliara, Madagascar.  Jude was moving toward the southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (60 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jude began to intensify after the center of its circulation moved back over the Mozambique Channel on Wednesday night.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Jude’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also developed in the bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude.  Storms near the center of Jude generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Jude will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.   It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Mozambique Channel.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Jude will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Jude toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Jude will move toward southern Madagascar.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Jude could reach the southern coast of Madagascar near Toliara in 36 hours.  Jude will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Jude could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) on the west coast of Madagascar.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ivone wes weakening east-southeast of Rodrigues.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ivone was located at latitude 22.5°S and longitude 68.0°E which put the center about 360 miles (580 km) east-southeast of Rodrigues.  Ivone was moving toward the west-southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jude Meanders over Mozambique

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Tropical Cyclone Jude meandered over Mozambique on Tuesday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude was located at latitude 16.1°S and longitude 35.9°E which put the center about 150 miles (240 km) north-northwest of Quelimane, Mozambique.  Jude was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jude remained well organized on Tuesday even though Jude had been over land for more than 36 hours.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms continued to revolve around the center of Jude’s circulation  Storms near the center of Jude’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jude was large.  Jude was affecting the weather in Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar, eastern Zimbabwe, and southern Tanzania.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is centered north of Madagascar.  The high pressure system will steer Jude toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Jude will move back toward the Mozambique Channel.

Tropical Cyclone Jude is not likely to intensify while the center of circulation is still over land.  Jude will move into an environment favorable for intensification when it moves over the Mozambique Channel.  Jude will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Jude is likely to intensify when it moves back over the Mozambique Channel.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will continue to drop heavy rain on parts of Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar, eastern Zimbabwe, and southern Tanzania.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ivone remained far to the south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ivone was located at latitude 19.8°S and longitude 76.4°E which put the center about 925 miles (1495 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Ivone was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jude Brings Wind and Rain to Mozambique

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Tropical Cyclone Jude brought wind and rain to northern Mozambique and to Malawi on Monday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude was located at latitude 14.6°S and longitude 37.9°E which put the center about 110 miles (175 km) northwest of Nampula, Mozambique.  Jude was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Jude hit the coast of Mozambique just to the south of Nacala on Sunday night.  Jude then moved inland over northern Mozambique on Monday.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jude brought strong winds and heavy rain to parts of northern Mozambique.  Bands in the western part of Jude’s circulation also brought strong winds and heavy rain to Malawi.

The winds steering Tropical Cyclone Jude toward the west will weaken during the next 24 hours.  As a result, Tropical Cyclone Jude will meander over northern Mozambique on Tuesday.  Jude could start to move south back toward the Mozambique Channel later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will continue to weaken while it is over northern Mozambique.  However, the circulation around Jude will continue to produce gusty winds and heavy rain over parts of northern Mozambique and over Malawi.  Prolonged heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ivone continued to spin far to the south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ivone was located at latitude 20.2°S and longitude 80.5°E which put the center about 1070 miles (1725 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Ivone was moving toward the southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jude Hits Mozambique

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Tropical Cyclone Jude hit Mozambique on Sunday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude was located at latitude 15.2°S and longitude 39.5°E which put the center about 70 miles (110 km) southwest of Nacala, Mozambique.  Jude was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Jude hit the coast of Mozambique just to the south of Nacala on Sunday night.  Jude was the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon at the time of landfall.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) at the time of landfall.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Jude was 13.9 at the time of landfall.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.9.  Tropical Cyclone Jude was similar in intensity to Hurricane Hanna when Hanna hit south Texas in 2020. Jude was larger than Hanna was.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jude remains well organized even though the center of Jude’s circulation has been over land for a few hours.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude.  Storms near the center of circulation continue to generate upper level divergence that is pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jude continues to be symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Jude’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Mozambique Channel.  The high pressure system will steer Jude toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Jude will move farther inland over northern Mozambique.  Jude could turn toward the south during the middle of the week.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of northern Mozambique.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Jude will weaken gradually while the center is over land.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ivone was passing far to the south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ivone was located at latitude 19.4°S and longitude 81.9°E which put the center about 1060 miles (1660 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Ivone was moving toward the south-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jude Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

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Tropical Cyclone Jude intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it neared the coast of Mozambique on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude was located at latitude 14.9°S and longitude 40.8°E which put the center about 40 miles (65 km) east-southeast of Nacala, Mozambique.  Jude was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jude rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it neared the coast of Mozambique on Sunday.  A small circular eye formed at the center of Jude’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude.  Storms near the center of Jude generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jude was symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Jude’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Jude is 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 27.9.  Tropical Cyclone Jude is similar in intensity to Hurricane Hanna when Hanna hit south Texas in 2020.  Jude is larger than Hanna was.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Jude will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Jude will intensify during the next few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Mozambique Channel.  The high pressure system will steer Jude toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude will reach the coast of Mozambique near Nacala in a few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it reaches Mozambique.  Jude will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Mozambique.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods.  Tropical Cyclone Jude will also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast of Mozambique.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ivone continued to spin far to the southeast of Diego Garcia.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ivone was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 82.9°E which put the center about 1005 miles (1625 km) southeast of Diego Garcia.  Ivone was moving toward the south-southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jude Forms over the Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Jude formed over the Mozambique Channel on Saturday afternoon.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude was located at latitude 14.6°S and longitude 45.1°E which put the center about 280 miles (450 km) east of Nacala, Mozambique.  Jude was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A low pressure system strengthened over the Mozambique Channel on Saturday after moving across northern Madagascar.  Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Jude.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jude appeared to be organizing quickly.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Jude’s circulation.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Jude’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Jude generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jude was symmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Jude’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Jude will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Jude will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Jude could intensify rapidly.  Tropical Cyclone Jude is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Mozambique Channel.   The high pressure system will steer Jude toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Jude will reach the coast of Mozambique near Nacala in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it reaches Mozambique.  Jude will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Mozambique.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods.  Tropical Cyclone Jude will also cause a storm surge along the coast of Mozambique.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ivone formed east-southeast of Diego Garcia.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ivone was located at latitude 13.4°S and longitude 84.0°E which put the center about 875 miles (1415 km) east-southeast of Nacala, Mozambique.  Ivone was moving toward the south-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy Weakens Near Kenya and Somalia

Tropical Cyclone Ialy weakened near the coast of Kenya and Somalia on Wednesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy was located at latitude 2.9°S and longitude 42.7°E which put it about 200 miles (320 km) northeast of Mombasa, Kenya and about 170 miles (275 km) south of Kismayo, Somalia. Ialy was moving toward the northeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Westerly winds blowing around the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Ialy pulled drier air from east Africa into its circulation. The drier air was pulled around Ialy’s circulation and some of the drier air reached the center of Ialy. The drier air caused many of the thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone Ialy to dissipate. Some thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the eastern part of Ialy’s circulation. Upper level divergence decreased when the thunderstorms dissipated. The decrease in upper level divergence caused mass to accumulate at the surface and the surface pressure increased. Tropical Cyclone Ialy weakened rapidly during Tuesday night when the surface pressure increased. Ialy weakened from the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon to the equivalent of a tropical depression.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ialy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, the drier air will continue to be pulled from east Africa into Ialy’s circulation. The drier air will cause the remaining thunderstorms to dissipate. Tropical Cyclone Ialy will to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours. The circulation around Ialy could dissipate during the next day or so.

As the remaining thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Ialy dissipate, Ialy will be steered by winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the equatorial Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ialy slowly toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center Tropical Cyclone Ialy will remain off the coast of northern Kenya and southern Somalia. Ialy could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Ialy strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon near the coast of Kenya and southern Somalia on Tuesday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy was located at latitude 4.3°S and longitude 42.9°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) east of Mombasa, Kenya. Ialy was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy strengthened on Tuesday morning and Meteo France La Reunion indicated that Ialy had intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon. The center of Ialy’s circulation was at latitude 4.3°S, which demonstrates again that it is possible for a strong tropical cyclone to occur near the Equator if the environment is favorable. There is no record of another tropical cyclone occurring where Ialy is located in databases going back to 1945.

A band of thunderstorms wrapped around the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy. Some satellite images showed evidence of a small eye at the center of Ialy’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Ialy was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move into an environment that will be more unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ialy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, Tropical Cyclone Ialy is likely to pull drier air from east Africa toward its circulation. So far, the drier air has remained outside of Ialy’s circulation, but the drier air could start to inhibit formation of thunderstorms in the northern part of Ialy. Tropical Cyclone Ialy is likely to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the equatorial Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ialy toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move toward the coast of northern Kenya and southern Somalia.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy could bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coastal sections of northern Kenya and southern Somalia. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Ialy could also cause a storm surge of up to seven feet (two meters) along the coast of northern Kenya and southern Somalia.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy Moves Southeast of Kenya

Tropical Cyclone Ialy moved southeast of Kenya on Monday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy was located at latitude 5.5°S and longitude 43.7°E which put it about 235 miles (380 km) east-southeast of Mombasa, Kenya. Ialy was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy exhibited a more symmetrical structure on Monday morning. Showers and thunderstorms were occurring in all quadrants of Ialy’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to remain low.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move into an environment that will be more unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ialy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, Tropical Cyclone Ialy is likely to start to pull drier air from east Africa toward its circulation. The drier air could start to inhibit formation of thunderstorms in the northern part of Ialy’s circulation. Tropical Cyclone Ialy is likely to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ialy toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Ialy will remain south of Kenya.