Tropical Cyclone Jude was nearing southern Madagascar on Friday morning.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude was located at latitude 23.3°S and longitude 42.1°E which put the center about 110 miles (175 km) west of Toliara, Madagascar.  Jude was moving toward the east-southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jude was intensifying gradually as it neared the coast of southern Madagascar on Friday morning.  Thunderstorms were occurring near the center of Jude’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude.  Storms near the center of Jude’s circulation pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jude remained relatively the same.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Jude’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Jude will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean near Madagascar.  The upper level ridge will produce west-northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Jude’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Jude could intensify a little more during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean . The high pressure system will steer Jude toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Jude will reach the coast of southern Madagascar just to the south of Toliara in 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jude will be the equivalent of a tropical storm when it reaches the southern coast of Madagascar.  Jude will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Jude could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) on the west coast of Madagascar.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ivone made a transition to an extratropical cyclone south-southeast of Rodrigues.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ivone was located at latitude 25.1°S and longitude 65.6°E which put the center about 395 miles (640 km) south-southeast of Rodrigues.  Ivone was moving toward the west-southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.