Monthly Archives: October 2023

Tropical Storm Pilar Edges Closer to El Salvador

Tropical Storm Pilar edged closer to El Salvador on Monday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was located at latitude 11.3°N and longitude 90.9°W which put it about 200 miles (325 km) southwest of San Salvador, El Salvador. Pilar was moving toward the east-northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the entire coast of El Salvador. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Pacific coast of Honduras including the Gulf of Fonseca. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Sandino, Nicaragua to the border with Honduras.

Tropical Storm Pilar intensified a little on Monday, but the circulation was still poorly organized. Thunderstorms weakened near the center of Pilar’s circulation. New thunderstorms were forming in bands in the northeastern part of Tropical Storm Pilar. Bands in the other parts of Pilar consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Pilar.

Tropical Storm Pilar will move through an environment that will be a little more favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Pilar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under a small upper level ridge west of Nicaragua. The upper level winds are weak near the center of the upper level ridge. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Pilar is likely to intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Pilar will move into a region where the steering currents are weak during the next 24 hours. Pilar is likely to continue to move slowly toward the east-northeast on Tuesday. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Pilar will move closer to El Salvador. Pilar could approach El Salvador on Tuesday night. Tropical Storm Pilar is forecast to stall for 12 to 24 hours, when it gets near El Salvador. Pilar could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of El Salvador, western Honduras and northwestern Nicaragua. Prolonged, heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Depression Strengthens to Tropical Storm Pilar

Former Tropical Depression Nineteen-E strengthened to Tropical Storm Pilar on Sunday evening. Tropical Storm Watches were issued for the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was located at latitude 11.0°N and longitude 92.0°W which put it about 265 miles (425 km) southwest of San Salvador, El Salvador. Pilar was moving toward the east-northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the entire coast of El Salvador. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Pacific coast of Honduras including the Gulf of Fonseca. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Sandino, Nicaragua to the border with Honduras.

Former Tropical Depression Nineteen-E intensified to Tropical Storm Pilar over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of El Salvador on Sunday evening. More thunderstorms continued to form near the center of Pilar’s circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated stronger upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the tropical storm. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Pilar.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the western side of Tropical Storm Pilar. The winds in the eastern side of Pilar’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Pilar will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Pilar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level low over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea. The upper level low will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Pilar’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear will inhibit intensification. However, the wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Storm Pilar is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea will steer Tropical Storm Pilar slowly toward the east-northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Pilar could approach El Salvador on Tuesday. Pilar is forecast to stall when it gets near El Salvador. Tropical Storm Pilar could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of El Salvador, western Honduras and northwestern Nicaragua. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Depression Prompts Tropical Storm Watch for El Salvador

A potential risk posed by Tropical Depression Nineteen-E prompted the issuance of a Tropical Storm Watch for El Savador. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E was located at latitude 10.8°N and longitude 92.5°W which put it about 300 miles (480 km) southwest of San Salvador, El Salvador. The tropical depression was moving toward the northeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the entire coast of El Salvador.

The circulation around Tropical Depression Nineteen-E exhibited a little more organization on Sunday afternoon. Thunderstorms began to form near the center of the circulation around the depression. More thunderstorms also started to develop in the bands revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level low over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea. The upper level low will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical depression. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear will inhibit intensification. The wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Depression Nineteen-E is likely to intensify to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea will steer Tropical Depression Nineteen-E slowly toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the tropical depression could approach El Salvador on Tuesday. Tropical Depression Nineteen-E is forecast to stall when it gets near El Salvador. The tropical depression could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of El Salvador. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Tammy Moves Away From Bermuda

Tropical Storm Tammy moved away from Bermuda on Saturday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Tammy was located at latitude 33.3°N and longitude 58.7°W which put it about 360 miles (580 km) east-northeast of Bermuda. Tammy was moving toward the east at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Storm Tammy weakened on Saturday as it moved under the southern extent of the upper level westerlies in the middle latitudes. The upper level westerly winds blew toward the top of Tammy’s circulation and they also caused strong vertical wind shear. The wind shear caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Tammy to become asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Tammy’s circulation. Bands in the western half of Tropical Storm Tammy consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Tammy’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Tammy will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Tammy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C. The upper level westerly winds will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The combination of marginal Sea Surface Temperatures and strong vertical wind shear will continue to create an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Tammy will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Tammy toward the east during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Tammy will move farther away from Bermuda.

Tammy Makes a Transition Back to a Tropical Storm

Former Hurricane Tammy made a transition back to a tropical storm east of Bermuda on Friday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Tammy was located at latitude 32.2°N and longitude 61.1°W which put it about 215 miles (350 km) east of Bermuda. Tammy was moving toward the northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Former Hurricane Tammy made a transition from an extratropical cyclone back to a tropical storm east of Bermuda on Friday morning. The circulation of Tropical Storm Tammy became separated from the occluded front that had formed on Thursday. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tammy’s circulation. The circulation became more symmetrical and it had the appearance of a tropical storm on visible satellite images. Based on the changes in the circulation’s structure, the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated Tammy as a tropical storm again.

Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Tammy. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 205 miles (335 km) in the northern side of Tammy’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles in the southern side of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Tammy will be in an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Tammy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C. It will be in a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Tammy could intensify back to a hurricane during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Tammy will be in an area where the steering level winds are weak during the next 12 hours. Tammy could meander east of Bermuda during the rest of Friday. A high pressure system centered southeast of Bermuda will steer Tropical Storm Tammy toward the east during the weekend. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Tammy will move away from Bermuda during the weekend.

Tammy Makes Transition to Strong Extratropical Cyclone

Former Hurricane Tammy made a transition to a strong extratropical cyclone on Wednesday night. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of former Hurricane Tammy was located at latitude 30.5°N and longitude 58.4°W which put it about 395 miles (640 km) east-southeast of Bermuda. Tammy was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Former Hurricane Tammy made a transition to a strong extratropical cyclone over the Atlantic Ocean east-southeast of Bermuda on Wednesday night. The lower part of Tammy’s circulation merged with a frontal system east of Bermuda. Tammy looked like an occluded extratropical cyclone on satellite images. An occluded front wrapped around the northern part of former Hurricane Tammy. A warm front stretched east of the occluded front. A cold front curved south to the Northern Leeward Islands. The upper part of Tammy’s circulation was captured by an upper level trough near Bermuda.

Former Hurricane Tammy was still producing winds to hurricane force. Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tammy’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation.

Former Hurricane Tammy is forecast to meander over the Atlantic Ocean east of Bermuda during the next few days. The upper level trough near Bermuda is between an upper level ridge over the southeastern U.S. and a second upper level ridge over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The two ridges will keep the upper level trough from moving much. Since the upper level trough captured former Hurricane Tammy, Tammy is not likely to move much either.

There is a possibility that former Hurricane Tammy could make a transition back to a tropical cyclone during the next few days. Tammy will meander over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C. The vertical wind shear will decrease if the upper level trough weakens. If more thunderstorms form near the center of Tammy’s circulation and the fronts dissipate over time, then Tammy could make a transition back to a tropical cyclone.

Former Hurricane Tammy could bring gusty winds to Bermuda during the next few days. The western part of Tammy’s circulation could extend over Bermuda at times as Tammy meanders east of Bermuda.

Cat. 5 Hurricane Otis Hits Acapulco

Category 5 Hurricane Otis hit Acapulco, Mexico on Tuesday night. Otis started to weaken after it made landfall. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Otis was located at latitude 17.7°N and longitude 100.3°W which put it about 60 miles (95 km) north-northwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Otis was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Maldonado to Zihuatanejo, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Acapulco.

Hurricane Otis strengthened to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale before it made landfall on the coast of Mexico on Tuesday night. A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Hurricane Otis at the time of landfall. Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Hurricane Otis. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 36.7. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 46.0. Hurricane Otis was similar in intensity to Hurricane Michael when Michael hit Northwest Florida in 2018. Otis was a little smaller than Michael was.

Hurricane Otis brought destructive winds and heavy rain to the area around Acapulco. Otis was capable of causing catastrophic damage. Widespread outages of electricity are likely. Otis dropped heavy rain in Guerrero. Heavy rain was likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Otis could have produced a storm surge of up to 15 feet (4.5 meters) along the coast.

Hurricane Tammy Spins Southeast of Bermuda

Hurricane Tammy was spinning southeast of Bermuda on Tuesday evening. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Tammy was located at latitude 24.9°N and longitude 60.7°W which put it about 570 miles (915 km) southeast of Bermuda. Tammy was moving toward the northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Hurricane Tammy started to intensify again on Tuesday evening. A small circular eye was at the center of Tammy’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Tammy. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the hurricane.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the eastern side of Hurricane Tammy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 170 miles (275 km) in the eastern side of Tammy’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the western half of Hurricane Tammy.

Hurricane Tammy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Tammy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough that is east of the U.S. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tammy’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear is not likely to be strong enough to prevent intensification. Hurricane Tammy is likely to intensify on Wednesday.

The upper level trough east of the U.S. will steer Hurricane Tammy toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Tammy will remain southeast of Bermuda on Wednesday.

Hurricane Otis Rapidly Intensifies to Cat. 5

Hurricane Otis rapidly intensified to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Tuesday evening. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Otis was located at latitude 16.1°N and longitude 99.7°W which put it about 55 miles (905 km) south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. Otis was moving toward the north-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 927 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Maldonado to Zihuatanejo, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Acapulco. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado, Mexico.

Hurricane Otis continued to intensify rapidly on Tuesday evening. A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Hurricane Otis. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Otis. Storms near the core of Otis generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane in all directions. The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Hurricane Otis. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 35.0. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.3. Hurricane Otis was similar in intensity to Hurricane Michael when Michael hit Northwest Florida in 2018. Otis was a little smaller than Michael was.

Hurricane Otis will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Otis toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Otis will make landfall near Acapulco in a few hours.

Hurricane Otis will move through an environment favorable for intensification until it makes landfall on the coast of Mexico. Otis will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. An upper level ridge over Gulf of Mexico will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Otis’ circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the southeast and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Otis could intensify more before it makes landfall.

Hurricane Otis could be a Category 5 hurricane when it makes landfall near Acapulco. Otis will be capable of causing catastrophic damage. Hurricane Otis will bring extremely strong winds to Acapulco. Widespread outages of electricity are likely. Otis will also drop heavy rain on Guerrero. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Otis could produce a storm surge of up to 15 feet (4.5 meters) along the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Lola Hits Vanuatu

Tropical Cyclone Lola hit Vanuatu on Tuesday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Lola was located at latitude 16.0°S and longitude 167.5°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) east of Norsup, Vanuatu. Lola was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Lola was the equivalent of a major hurricane when it hit the central part of Vanuatu on Tuesday. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Lola’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Lola was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 32.7. Tropical Cyclone Lola was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dennis when Dennis hit Northwest Florida in 2005.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Lola will move across Malekula during the next few hours. The strong winds in the eastern side of Lola’s circulation will hit Malekula, Ambrym and Epi. Tropical Cyclone Lola is capable of causing regional major damage. Heavy rain will also fall on Malekula, Ambrym and Epi. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some location. Lola could cause a storm surge of up to ten feet (three meters) along the north coasts of Malekula, Ambrym and Epi, when the wind blows the water toward the land.

Tropical Cyclone Lola will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Lola will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C. An upper level trough over the Coral Sea will approach Lola from the west. The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Lola’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Tropical Cyclone Lola is likely to weaken when the wind shear increases.