Tag Archives: Punta Maldonado

Cat. 5 Hurricane Otis Hits Acapulco

Category 5 Hurricane Otis hit Acapulco, Mexico on Tuesday night. Otis started to weaken after it made landfall. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Otis was located at latitude 17.7°N and longitude 100.3°W which put it about 60 miles (95 km) north-northwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Otis was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Maldonado to Zihuatanejo, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Acapulco.

Hurricane Otis strengthened to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale before it made landfall on the coast of Mexico on Tuesday night. A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Hurricane Otis at the time of landfall. Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Hurricane Otis. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 36.7. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 46.0. Hurricane Otis was similar in intensity to Hurricane Michael when Michael hit Northwest Florida in 2018. Otis was a little smaller than Michael was.

Hurricane Otis brought destructive winds and heavy rain to the area around Acapulco. Otis was capable of causing catastrophic damage. Widespread outages of electricity are likely. Otis dropped heavy rain in Guerrero. Heavy rain was likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Otis could have produced a storm surge of up to 15 feet (4.5 meters) along the coast.

Hurricane Otis Rapidly Intensifies to Cat. 5

Hurricane Otis rapidly intensified to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Tuesday evening. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Otis was located at latitude 16.1°N and longitude 99.7°W which put it about 55 miles (905 km) south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. Otis was moving toward the north-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 927 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Maldonado to Zihuatanejo, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Acapulco. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado, Mexico.

Hurricane Otis continued to intensify rapidly on Tuesday evening. A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Hurricane Otis. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Otis. Storms near the core of Otis generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane in all directions. The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Hurricane Otis. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 35.0. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.3. Hurricane Otis was similar in intensity to Hurricane Michael when Michael hit Northwest Florida in 2018. Otis was a little smaller than Michael was.

Hurricane Otis will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Otis toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Otis will make landfall near Acapulco in a few hours.

Hurricane Otis will move through an environment favorable for intensification until it makes landfall on the coast of Mexico. Otis will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. An upper level ridge over Gulf of Mexico will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Otis’ circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the southeast and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Otis could intensify more before it makes landfall.

Hurricane Otis could be a Category 5 hurricane when it makes landfall near Acapulco. Otis will be capable of causing catastrophic damage. Hurricane Otis will bring extremely strong winds to Acapulco. Widespread outages of electricity are likely. Otis will also drop heavy rain on Guerrero. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Otis could produce a storm surge of up to 15 feet (4.5 meters) along the coast.

Otis Rapidly Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Otis rapidly intensified to a major hurricane on Tuesday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Otis was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 99.5°W which put it about 115 miles (185 km) south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. Otis was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Maldonado to Zihuatanejo, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Acapulco. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado, Mexico.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter airplane flying into former Tropical Storm Otis on Tuesday afternoon found that Otis had rapidly intensified to a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. A circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) had formed at the center of Hurricane Otis. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Otis. Storms near the core of Otis generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane in all directions.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Hurricane Otis. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 32.8. Hurricane Otis was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dennis when Dennis hit Northwest Florida in 2005.

Hurricane Otis will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Otis will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. An upper level ridge over Gulf of Mexico will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Otis’ circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the southeast and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Otis is likely to continue to intensify during the next 12 hours.

Hurricane Otis will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Otis toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Otis will approach the coast of Mexico early on Wednesday.

Hurricane Otis is very likely to be a major hurricane when it approaches the coast of Mexico. Otis could make landfall near Acapulco. Hurricane Otis will bring strong gusty winds and heavy rain to Guerrero. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Otis could produce a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along the coast.

Tropical Storm Otis Prompts Hurricane Warning for Mexico

The risk posed by Tropical Storm Otis prompted the government of Mexico to issue a Hurricane Warning for a portion of the coast on Tuesday. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Otis was located at latitude 14.7°N and longitude 98.6°W which put it about 175 miles (280 km) south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. Otis was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Maldonado to Zihuatanejo, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Acapulco. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Otis strengthened over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Tuesday morning. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Otis’ circulation and the circulation became more symmetrical. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Otis. Storms near the center of circulation generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm in all directions. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Otis’ circulation.

Tropical Storm Otis will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Otis will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. An upper level ridge over Gulf of Mexico will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Otis’ circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the southeast and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Otis is likely to intensify to a hurricane during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Otis will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure will steer Otis toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Otis will approach the coast of Mexico early on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Otis is likely to be a hurricane when it approaches the coast of Mexico. Otis will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Guerrero. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Otis could produce a storm surge of up to seven feet (two meters) along the coast.

Tropical Storm Beatriz Develops Near Mexico

Tropical Storm Beatriz developed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean near Mexico on Thursday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Beatriz was located at latitude 15.0°N and longitude 99.4°W which put it about 135 miles (220 km) south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. Beatriz was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Zihuatenajo to Playa Perula, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Manzanillo. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Maldonado to Zihuatenajo, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning included Acapulco. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita, Mexico.

Former Tropical Depression Two-E strengthened to Tropical Storm Beatriz over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean near Mexico on Thursday afternoon. A distinct low level center of circulation was evident on visible satellite images of Tropical Storm Beatriz. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Beatriz’ circulation. Storm near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Beatriz. The winds in the other parts of Beatriz’ circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Beatriz will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Beatriz will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over Mexico and the southern U.S. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Beatriz. However, the winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Beatriz will intensify during the next 24 hours. Beatriz could intensify rapidly at times. Tropical Storm Beatriz could strengthen to a hurricane during the next 24 hours.

The upper level ridge over Mexico and the southern U.S. will steer Tropical Storm Beatriz toward the northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Beatriz will move closer to the coast of Mexico. The center of Beatriz could be near Manzanillo by Friday evening. Beatriz could be a hurricane when it gets near Manzanillo. Bands in the northern side of Tropical Storm Beatriz could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of the west coast of Mexico. Locally heavy rain could fall in parts of Oaxaca and Guerrero. Strong winds and locally heavy rain could affect Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Adrian was churning south of Baja California. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Adrian was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 110.7°W which put it about 450 miles (720 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California. Adrian was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Mexico Issues Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings

The government of Mexico issued Tropical Storm Watches and Tropical Storm Warnings for the west coast of Mexico on Wednesday night. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Maldonado to Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning included Acapulco. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Lazaro Cardenas to Manzanillo, Mexico.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm during the next several days as it moves near the coast of Mexico. The low pressure system was designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Two-E on Wednesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two-E was located at latitude 13.5°N and longitude 96.8°W which put it about 315 miles (505 km) southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. It was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southeast of Acapulco exhibited more organization on Wednesday night. The U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Two-E. More thunderstorms formed in bands in the eastern side of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two-E. Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the system. Removal of mass will allow the surface pressure to decrease.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two-E will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over Mexico and the southern U.S. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two-E. However, the winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. Potential Tropical Cyclone Two-E is likely to intensify during the next 36 hours. It could strengthen to a tropical depression during the next 12 hours. Potential Tropical Cyclone Two-E could intensify to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

The upper level ridge over Mexico and the southern U.S. will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Two-E toward the northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone Two-E will move closer to the coast of Mexico. It could be south of Acapulco on Thursday. Bands in the northern side of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two-E could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of the west coast of Mexico. Locally heavy rain could fall in parts of Oaxaca, Guerrero and Jalisco. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Adrian was spinning southwest of Manzanillo. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Adrian was located at latitude 15.4°N and longitude 109.0°W which put it about 395 miles (640 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Adrian was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Tropical Depression 13E Strengthens to Tropical Storm Lester, Mexico Issues Warning

Former Tropical Depression Thirteen-E strengthened to Tropical Storm Lester south of Mexico on Friday morning and the government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the coast. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Lester was located at latitude 13.4°N and longitude 96.1°W which put it about 160 miles (255 km) south of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Lester was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Maldonado to Zihuatanejo, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning included Acapulco. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Maldonado to Laguna de Chacahua, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect from Zihuatanejo to Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression Thirteen-E strengthened on Friday morning and the National Hurricane Center upgraded it to Tropical Storm Lester. Even though former Tropical Depression Thirteen-E strengthened to Tropical Storm Lester, the distribution of thunderstorms continued to be asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Lester’s circulation. Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the southern half of Lester’s circulation. The winds in the northern half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Lester will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Lester will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge over Mexico. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical depression. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear and the wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Lester likely to strengthen gradually during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Lester will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that extends over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Lester toward the northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Lester will approach the southwest coast of Mexico on Saturday morning. Lester will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Guerrero. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Agatha Rapidly Intensifies to Cat. 2

Hurricane Agatha rapidly intensified to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Sunday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Agatha was located at latitude 14.1°N and longitude 98.7°W which put it about 185 miles (290 km) southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Agatha was moving toward the northeast at 1 m.p.h. (2 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 964 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Salina Cruz to Barra de Tonala. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado and from Salina Cruz to Boca de Pijijiapan, Mexico.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance plane found that Hurricane Agatha had rapidly intensified to a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Sunday afternoon. A small circular eye formed at the center of Hurricane Agatha. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Agatha. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Agatha was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Agatha’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (175 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Agatha was 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.4.

Hurricane Agatha will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Agatha will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Agatha is likely to intensify during the next 18 hours. An upper level trough over Baja California will approach Hurricane Agatha on Monday. The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Agatha’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. More wind shear will make the environment less favorable for intensification.

Hurricane Agatha will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Central America and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Agatha toward the northeast on Sunday night. The upper level trough over Baja California will steer Agatha toward the northeast more quickly on Monday. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Agatha will move approach the coast of Mexico near Puerto Escondido and Puerto Angel during the middle of Monday. Agatha could be a major hurricane when it nears the coast of Mexico. Hurricane Agatha will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Oaxaca. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Agatha could produce a storm surge of ten feet (three meters) along portions of the coast of Oaxaca. Hurricane Agatha could cause localized major damage.

Agatha Strengthens to a Hurricane South of Mexico

Former Tropical Storm Agatha strengthened to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Sunday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Agatha was located at latitude 14.1°N and longitude 99.0°W which put it about 200 miles (320 km) west-southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Agatha was moving toward the north-northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Salina Cruz to Barra de Tonala. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado and from Salina Cruz to Boca de Pijijiapan, Mexico.

The center of circulation at the surface of former Tropical Storm Agatha moved under the center of circulation in the middle troposphere early on Sunday. The improved vertical structure allowed Agatha to strengthen to a hurricane. Microwave satellite images indicated that a small eye was forming at the center of Hurricane Agatha. The developing eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were in the southern and eastern parts of Agatha’s circulation. Bands in the northwestern part of Hurricane Agatha consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Agatha generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Agatha. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Agatha will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Agatha will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Agatha will intensify during the next 24 hours. Agatha could undergo a period of rapid intensification once an inner core with an eye and an eyewall develop fully. An upper level trough over Baja California will approach Hurricane Agatha on Monday. The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Agatha’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. More wind shear will make the environment less favorable for intensification.

Hurricane Agatha will move around the western part of a high pressure system over Central America and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Agatha toward the north during the next few hours. Agatha will move toward the northeast on Sunday night when it moves around the northwestern part of the high pressure system. The upper level trough over Baja California will steer Agatha toward the northeast more quickly on Monday. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Agatha will move approach the coast of Mexico near Puerto Escondido and Puerto Angel during the middle of Monday. There is a chance Agatha could be a major hurricane when it nears the coast of Mexico. Hurricane Agatha will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Oaxaca. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Agatha could produce a storm surge of seven feet (two meters) along portions of the coast of Oaxaca.

Tropical Storm Agatha Strengthens, Mexico Issues Hurricane Warning

Tropical Storm Agatha strengthened over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Saturday evening and the government of Mexico issued a Hurricane Warning for a portion of the coast. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Agatha was located at latitude 13.9°N and longitude 98.7°W which put it about 190 miles (310 km) southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Agatha was moving toward the northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Salina Cruz to Barra de Tonala. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado and from Salina Cruz to Boca de Pijijiapan, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Agatha strengthened on Saturday. However, microwave satellite images suggested that the center of circulation in the middle troposphere could be a little to the northeast of the center at the surface. A ring of thunderstorms surrounded much of the center in the middle troposphere and the center at the surface could reform under the mid-tropospheric center. Thunderstorms around the center in the middle troposphere generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Some drier air over Mexico appeared to get pulled into the northwestern part of Agatha’s circulation. Bands in the northwestern part of Tropical Storm Agatha consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Bands of thunderstorms were in the southern and eastern parts of Agatha. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Agatha.

Tropical Storm Agatha will move through an area favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Agatha will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Agatha will intensify during the next 36 hours and it could strengthen to a hurricane on Sunday. Agatha could undergo a period of rapid intensification if the center at the surface reforms under the center in the middle troposphere and an inner core with an eye and an eyewall develop fully.

Tropical Storm Agatha will move around the western part of a high pressure system over Central America and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Agatha toward the north during the next 12 hours. Agatha will move toward the northeast on Sunday night and Monday when it moves around the northwestern part of the high pressure system. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Agatha will move approach the coast of Mexico near Puerto Escondido and Puerto Angel on Monday afternoon. Tropical Storm Agatha is likely to be a hurricane when it approaches Mexico. There is a chance Agatha could be a major hurricane when it nears the coast of Mexico.