Category Archives: Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic TCs

Tropical Storm Sara Moves Over Belize

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Tropical Storm Sara moved over Belize on Sunday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located at latitude 17.1°N and longitude 88.4°W which put the center about 30 miles (50 km) south-southwest of Belize City, Belize.  Sara was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Caribbean coast of Guatemala.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Belize.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

The center of Tropical Storm Sara made landfall on the coast of Belize south of Belize City on Sunday morning.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Sara was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the northern side of Sara’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the southern side of Tropical Storm Sara.

Tropical Storm Sara will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Sara  toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Sara will move across Belize on Sunday.  Sara will move over the southern part of the Yucatan Peninsula by Sunday night.

Tropical Storm Sara will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to Belize on Sunday.  Heave rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Tropical Storm Sara will also drop heavy rain on parts of northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico.

Tropical Storm Sara Moves Toward Belize

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Tropical Storm Sara moved slowly toward Belize on Saturday afternoon.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 87.0°W which put the center about 110 miles (175 km) southeast of Belize City, Belize.  Sara was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Castilla, Honduras to the border with Guatemala.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Bay Islands of Honduras.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Caribbean coast of Guatemala.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Belize City, Belize to the border with Guatemala.

After moving slowly over the Bay Islands and dropping heavy rain on Honduras, Tropical Storm Sara started to move toward Belize on Saturday.  The center of Sara’s circulation was over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea just north of the coast of Honduras.  A distinct low level center of circulation was evident on visible satellite images.  Bands of shower and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Sara.  Storms near the center of Sara’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

A little less than half of the circulation of Tropical Storm Sara was still over land.  The strongest winds were occurring in the parts of Sara’s circulation that were over the Caribbean Sea.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) in the northern side of Tropical Storm Sara.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the southern side of Sara’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Sara will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Sara will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the upper level ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, the fact that almost half of Sara’s circulation is over land will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Sara could intensify during the next 12 hours if the the center of Sara’s circulation remains over water.

Tropical Storm Sara will move around the southern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Sara slowly toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Sara will reach Belize on Saturday night.

Tropical Storm Sara will continue to bring strong winds to the coast of Honduras and to the Bay Islands.  Sara will also continue to drop very heavy rain on Honduras.  The fact that Sara is moving so slowly will result in a prolonged period of heavy rain near the coast of Honduras. Prolonged heavy rain will very likely cause catastrophic floods and mudslides.  Tropical Storm Sara will also drop heavy rain over Belize and eastern Guatemala on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Sara Drops Heavy Rain on Honduras

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Tropical Storm Sara dropped heavy rain on Honduras on Friday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located at latitude 16.1°N and longitude 86.0°W which put the center about 30 miles (50 km) south-southwest of Isla Guanaja,, Honduras.  Sara was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the northern coast of Honduras.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Bay Islands of Honduras.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Caribbean coast of Guatemala.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Belize City, Belize to the border with Guatemala.

Tropical Storm Sara dropped heavy rain on parts of Honduras on Friday.  A weather station in La Ceiba, Honduras measured 21.89 inches (566 mm) of rain in 24 hours.  There were reports of flooding in Honduras.

The center of Tropical Storm Sara was just north of the coast of Honduras.  Bands of thunderstorms were occurring in the western and southern parts of Sara’s circulation.  Bands in the northern and eastern parts of Tropical Storm Sara consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Sara continued to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Sara was asymmetrical because the southern half of Sara’s circulation was over land.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the northern side of Tropical Storm Sara.  The southern side of Sara was over land, and the winds there were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Sara will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Sara will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the upper level ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, the fact that the southern half of Sara’s circulation is over land will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Sara could intensify during the next 24 hours if the the center of Sara’s circulation stays over water.

Tropical Storm Sara will move around the southern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Sara slowly toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Sara will move along the coast of Honduras.

Tropical Storm Sara will bring strong winds to the coast of Honduras and to the Bay Islands.  Sara will also continue to drop very heavy rain on Honduras.  The fact that Sara is moving so slowly will result in a prolonged period of heavy rain near the coast of Honduras.  Prolonged heavy rain will very likely cause catastrophic floods and mudslides.  Tropical Storm Sara will also drop heavy rain over Belize and northeastern Guatemala during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Sara Forms Near Honduras

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Tropical Storm Sara formed near Honduras on Thursday afternoon.  At 1:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located at latitude 15.7°N and longitude 82.9°W which put the center about 50 miles (80 km) northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios.  Sara was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).   The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Sal, Honduras to the border with Nicaragua.  A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the Bay Islands of Honduras.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua to the border with Honduras.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that former Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen had strengthened on Thursday afternoon.  Based on data from the reconnaissance plane, the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Sara.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Sara exhibited more organization on Thursday afternoon.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Sara’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also developed in the bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Sara.  Storms near the center of Sara generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds in Tropical Storm Sara were occurring in the part of Sara’s circulation that was over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northern half of Tropical Storm Sara.  The winds over land were not as strong.

Tropical Storm Sara will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Sara will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the upper level ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Sara will continue to intensify during the next 24 hours unless the center of circulation moves inland over northern Honduras.

Tropical Storm Sara will move around the southern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Sara slowly toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Sara will move parallel to the coast of Honduras.

Tropical Storm Sara will bring strong winds to the coast of Honduras and to the Bay Islands.  Sara will also drop very heavy rain on Honduras and northern Nicaragua.  Heavy rain will very likely cause floods and mudslides.

 

Hurricane Watch Issued for Honduras, Tropical Storm Watch for Nicaragua

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The risk posed by a low pressure system over the Caribbean Sea prompted the issuance of a Hurricane Watch for Honduras and a Tropical Storm Watch for Nicaragua.  The designation of the low pressure system has been changed from Invest 99L to Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 79.0°E which put the center about 290 miles (430 km) east-northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Castilla, Honduras to the border with Nicaragua.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua to the border with Honduras.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center changed the designation of former Invest 99L to Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen on Wednesday afternoon.  The circulation around Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen exhibited more organization on Wednesday afternoon.  Thunderstorms began to form near the center of circulation.  The thunderstorms near the center of circulation also started to generate some upper level divergence.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen will move through an environment favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  It will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the upper level ridge.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen is likely to develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm on Thursday.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen will move around the southern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen slowly toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen will approach Nicaragua and Honduras on Thursday.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen will bring strong winds and very heavy rain to Honduras and northern Nicaragua.  Heavy rain will very likely cause floods and mudslides.

Low Pressure System Forms Over Caribbean Sea

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A low pressure system formed over the Caribbean Sea on Wednesday.  The low pressure system was designated as invest 99L.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Invest 99L was located at latitude 16.1°N and longitude 77.6°E which put the center about 140 miles (225 km) south-southwest of Kingston Jamaica.   Invest 99L was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

The circulation around Invest 99L was large, but it was not well organized.  There were at least three smaller counterclockwise circulations revolving around inside the larger circulation.  One of the smaller circulations was north of Honduras.  A second smaller circulation was southwest of Jamaica and the third smaller circulation was southeast of Jamaica.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around each of the smaller circulations.

Invest 99L will move through an environment favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Invest 99L will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the upper level ridge.  Invest 99L is likely to develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm during the next day or two.

Invest 99L will move around the southern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Invest 99L slowly toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Invest 99L will move slowly toward Nicaragua and Honduras.

Rafael Weakens to a Tropical Storm

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Former Hurricane Rafael weakened to a tropical storm over the central Gulf of Mexico on Friday night.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located at latitude 25.0°N and longitude 90.8°W which put the center about 265 miles (425 km) north-northwest of Progreso, Mexico.  Rafael was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Former Hurricane Rafael continued to weaken over the central Gulf of Mexico on Friday night. An upper level low over the central U.S. was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Rafael’s circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear. Drier air was being pulled into the western side of Tropical Storm Rafael.  The combination of moderate vertical wind shear and drier air caused Rafael to continue to weaken.

The moderate vertical wind shear was also affecting the structure of Tropical Storm Rafael.  New thunderstorms were still developing near the center of Rafael’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also still occurring in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Rafael.  Bands in the western side of Rafael’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.   Storms near the center of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical storm.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Rafael was small. Wind to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Rafael’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Rafael will move through an environment mostly unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  However the upper level low over the central U.S. will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  More drier air will also get pulled into the western side of Rafael’s circulation.  The combination of moderate vertical wind shear and drier air is likely to cause Tropical Storm Rafael to weaken gradually during the next 24 hours.  Rafael could maintain its intensity today, if the wind shear does not get any stronger.

The winds steering Tropical Storm Rafael will be weak during the next 24 hours. As a result, on its anticipated track, Rafael will meander over the central Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.

Hurricane Rafael Weakens Over Gulf of Mexico

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Hurricane Rafael weakened over the central Gulf of Mexico on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Hurricane Rafael was located at latitude 24.6°N and longitude 89.7°W which put the center about 230 miles (365 km) north of Progreso, Mexico.  Rafael was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

Hurricane Rafael started to weaken over the central Gulf of Mexico on Friday afternoon.  An upper level low over the central U.S. was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Rafael’s circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  Drier air was being pulled into the western side of Hurricane Rafael.  The combination of moderate vertical wind shear and drier air caused Hurricane Rafael to start to weaken.

The moderate vertical wind shear was also affecting the structure of Hurricane Rafael.  An eye was no longer visible at the center of Rafael’s circulation.  The western part of the former eyewall weakened and that part of the eyewall consisted of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in the eastern part of the former eyewall.  Thunderstorms were also still occurring in bands in the eastern side of Hurricane Rafael.  Storms near the center of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Rafael was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Rafael’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Hurricane Rafael.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Rafael was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.0.  Hurricane Rafael was similar in intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.  Rafael was bigger than Idalia was.

Rafael will move into an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  However the upper level low over the central U.S. will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  More drier air will also get pulled into the western side of Rafael’s circulation.  The combination of moderate vertical wind shear and drier air will cause Hurricane Rafael to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The winds steering Hurricane Rafael will weaken during the next 24 hours.  As a result, on its anticipated track, Hurricane Rafael will meander over the central Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.

Hurricane Rafael Moves Over Southeastern Gulf of Mexico

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Hurricane Rafael moved over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Hurricane Rafael was located at latitude 24.7°N and longitude 86.2°W which put the center about 325 miles (520 km) northeast of Progreso, Mexico.  Rafael was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

Hurricane Rafael weakened a little on Wednesday night as it moved across western Cuba.  Rafael strengthened again on Thursday when it moved over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Rafael’s circulation and an eye formed again at the center of Hurricane Rafael.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Rafael’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the hurricane. The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Rafael was small.  Wind to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Rafael’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Hurricane Rafael.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Rafael was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.8.  Hurricane Rafael was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Rafael will move into an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the eastern periphery of a large upper level trough that extends from the North Central U.S. to the Southwest U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Rafael’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Hurricane Rafael could intensify during the next 24 hours.  The wind shear is likely to increase during the weekend and Rafael is likely to weaken when the shear increases.

Hurricane Rafael will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that extends from the western Atlantic Ocean to the Gulf of Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Rafael toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Rafael will move toward the central Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Rafael Hits Western Cuba

Hurricane Rafael hit western Cuba late on Wednesday afternoon.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Rafael was located at latitude 22.6°N and longitude 82.7°W which put the center about 45 miles (75 km) south-southwest of Havana, Cuba.   Rafael was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 950 mb.

A  Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys from Key West to Channel 5 Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Dry Tortugas. 

Hurricane Rafael intensified to a major hurricane on Wednesday before it hit western Cuba.  Concentric eyewalls formed in the core of Rafael’s circulation.  An eyewall replacement cycle started, but the inner eyewall was still intact when Hurricane Rafael hit western Cuba.  Since the inner eyewall was still intact, Rafael did not weaken before it hit Cuba.

Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the concentric eyewalls.  Storms near the core of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Rafael was small.  Wind to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Rafael’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the eastern side of Hurricane Rafael.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the western side of Rafael.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Rafael was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.4.  Hurricane Rafael was similar in intensity to Hurricane Delta when Delta hit Louisiana in 2020.  Rafael was not as big as Delta was.

Hurricane Rafael will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Rafael toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Rafael will move across western Cuba during the next few few hours.  Rafael will move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday.

Hurricane Rafael will bring strong winds and heavy rain to western Cuba.  Strong winds could cause widespread electricity outages in Cuba.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.  Rafael could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the south coast of western Cuba.  Hurricane Rafael will be capable of causing localized major damage.

Hurricane Rafael will weaken as it moves across western Cuba.  Rafael will move into an environment somewhat favorable for intensification after it moves north of Cuba.  Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the eastern periphery of a large upper level trough that extends from the North Central U.S. to the Southwest U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Rafael’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Hurricane Rafael will could intensify on Thursday after it moves north of Cuba.