Category Archives: Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic TCs

Possible Development near Southeast U.S.

A low pressure system could develop near the coast of the Southeast U.S. during the next 48 hours. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of a developing low pressure system currently designated as Invest 90L was located at latitude 31.3°N and longitude 79.3°W which put it about 150 miles (240 km) east of Brunswick, Georgia. It was moving toward the east-southeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1017 mb.

Early morning visible satellite images appeared to show that a low pressure system was forming along a nearly stationary front off the coast of the southeast U.S. More thunderstorms were forming in the developing low pressure system and some rotation was evident in satellite loops. Thunderstorms appeared to be organizing into bands. The southern end of an upper level trough over the eastern U.S. was producing westerly that were blowing across the top of the developing low pressure system. Those winds were causing moderated vertical wind shear. The upper level winds were also inhibiting the development of thunderstorms on the western side of the developing low pressure system.

The low pressure system will move through an environment somewhat favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. The upper level trough will move northeast of the low pressure system on Saturday and the upper level winds will weaken. An upper level low east of the Bahamas could enhance upper level divergence to the southeast of the developing low pressure system. The National Hurricane Center is indicating the probability is 30% that a tropical cyclone forms during the next 48 hours. A reconnaissance plane has been tentatively tasked to investigate the system on Saturday afternoon, if necessary.

Tropical Storm Elsa Brings Wind and Rain to Northeast U.S.

Tropical Storm Elsa brought wind and rain to the northeast U.S. on Friday morning. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 40.2°N and longitude 73.1°W which put it about 90 miles (145 km) southwest of Montauk Point, New York. Elsa was moving toward the northeast at 31 m.p.h. (50 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the eastern portion of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including Block Island, Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard, and Cape Cod.

Tropical Storm Elsa was buffeting the northeastern U.S. with gusty winds and locally heavy rain on Friday morning. The center of Elsa was passing south of Long Island, but rain was falling over an area that extended from New York City to southern Maine. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) to the southeast of the center of Elsa. Winds to tropical storm force also extended out 80 miles (130 km) to the northeast of the center of circulation. Winds in the western half of Tropical Storm Elsa were not as strong. Elsa could cause sporadic power outages and flash floods in the northeastern U.S. on Friday.

Tropical Storm Elsa will make a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next 24 hours, while it moves quickly toward the northeast. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 22°C. An upper level trough over the Great Lakes will produce strong southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Elsa’s circulation. Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear. The combination of cooler Sea Surface Temperatures and strong wind shear will cause the structure of Tropical Storm Elsa to change to the structure of an extratropical cyclone. The center of Elsa will pass near Cape Cod on Friday afternoon. Elsa will pass over the Canadian Maritime Provinces on Friday night. It could be near Labrador and eastern Newfoundland on Saturday.

Tropical Storm Elsa Moves over North Carolina

Tropical Storm Elsa moved over North Carolina on Thursday. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 35.6°N and longitude 79.0°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) west of Raleigh, North Carolina. Elsa was moving toward the northeast at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from South Santee River, South Carolina to Sandy Hook, New Jersey. The Tropical Storm Warning included Pamlico Sound and Albemarle Sound. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the eastern portion of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including Block Island, Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard, and Cape Cod.

Tropical Storm Elsa moved a little more quickly toward the northeast on Thursday. The surface center of Elsa moved over North Carolina. The structure of Elsa exhibited the typical characteristics of a tropical storm moving northeast near the coast of the U.S. Heavy rain was falling in the northeastern part of Tropical Storm Elsa. The heaviest rain was falling on eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia. Drier air was wrapping around the western and southern sides of Elsa. The strongest winds were blowing in the southeastern part of Tropical Storm Elsa that was over the Atlantic Ocean.

An upper level trough over the Great Lakes will steer Tropical Storm Elsa quickly toward the northeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Elsa will move over Virginia on Thursday evening. Tropical Storm Elsa could be near Long Island on Friday morning. Elsa could pass near Cape Cod later on Friday. Tropical Storm Elsa will make a transition to an extratropical cyclone when it moves farther north. Elsa will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the East Coast of the U.S. from North Carolina to Massachusetts. Tropical Storm Elsa could cause sporadic power outages along the East Coast. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Elsa Prompts Warnings for East Coast

Tropical Storm Elsa prompted the issuance of warnings and watches for the East Coast of the U.S. on Wednesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 32.1°N and longitude 82.3°W which put it about 55 miles (90 km) west of Savannah, Georgia. Elsa was moving toward the north-northeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 55 m.p.h. (90 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to Great Egg Inlet, New Jersey. The Tropical Storm Warning included Pamlico Sound and Albemarle Sound. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Great Egg Inlet to Sandy Hook, New Jersey. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the eastern portion of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor. A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including Block Island, Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard, and Cape Cod.

The center of Tropical Storm Elsa was moving across eastern Georgia on Wednesday night. Heavy rain was spreading across South Carolina. Rainbands on the eastern side of Elsa’s circulation were producing winds to tropical storm force over the Atlantic Ocean. NOAA buoy 41008 at Grays Reef reported a sustained wind speed of 38 m.p.h. (61 km/h) and a wind gust of 47 m.p.h. (76 km/h). The circulation around Tropical Storm Elsa was still well defined. A distinct low pressure system was evident on the surface map, radar and satellite displays. Storms on the eastern side of Elsa generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.

An upper level trough over the Great Lakes will steer Tropical Storm Elsa toward the northeast during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Elsa will move across South Carolina on Thursday morning and North Carolina on Thursday afternoon. Elsa could be over eastern Virginia on Thursday evening and near Long Island by Friday morning. Even though the center of Tropical Storm Elsa will be over land for another 18 to 24 hours, bands on the eastern side of the circulation could produce tropical storm force winds over the Atlantic Ocean and along the East Coast of the U.S. Elsa will also drop locally heavy rain over South Carolina, eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia. Gusty winds and heavy rain could cause sporadic power outages. Heavy rain could also cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Elsa Makes Landfall in Florida

Tropical Storm Elsa made landfall on the coast of north Florida on Wednesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 29.9°N and longitude 83.6°W which put it about 20 miles (30 km) southwest of Perry, Florida. Elsa was moving toward the north at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Aripeka to Ochlockonee River, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the St. Marys River, Florida to Little River Inlet, South Carolina. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Sandy Hook New Jersey including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.

The center of Tropical Storm Elsa made landfall in Taylor County, Florida about 20 miles southwest of Perry around 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday. Elsa weakened from a hurricane to a strong tropical storm before it made landfall. Bands in the eastern half of the circulation around Tropical Storm Elsa dropped heavy rain over Florida. Rain was beginning to spread over southern Georgia. Gusty winds caused power outages in parts of Florida. Elsa caused a minor storm surge along the west coast of Florida.

Tropical Storm Elsa will weaken steadily during the next 48 hours while the center moves farther inland. Elsa will be steered toward the northeast during the next few days by an upper level trough over the Great Lakes. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Elsa will move over southern Georgia on Wednesday night. Elsa could be over South Carolina on Thursday morning and it could be over eastern Virginia by Thursday night. Elsa could strengthen back to a tropical storm if the center moves over the Atlantic Ocean later this week.

Tropical Storm Elsa will continue to drop locally heavy rain over northern Florida during the next few hours. Heavy rain will spread over southern Georgia, South Carolina, eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Gusty winds could cause sporadic power outages. There could be enough low level wind shear in stronger rainbands to produce tornadoes. When Tropical Storm Elsa gets closer to the East Coast of the U.S., southeasterly winds will blow water toward the coast. Those winds will cause water levels to rise along the coast

Elsa Strengthens Back to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Elsa strengthened back to a hurricane on Tuesday evening. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Elsa was located at latitude 26.6°N and longitude 83.1°W which put it about 100 miles (160 km) south-southwest of Tampa, Florida. Elsa was moving toward the north at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included Tampa, St. Petersburg and Clearwater. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Dry Tortugas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Flamingo to Egmont Key and from the Steinhatchee River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida. That warning included Naples, and Ft. Myers. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the St. Marys River to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to the South Santee River, South Carolina.

Former Tropical Storm Elsa strengthened gradually throughout the day on Tuesday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped most of the way around the center of circulation and an eye appeared to be forming at the center of Elsa. Storms near near the center of circulation generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of more mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease, which caused the wind speed to increase. The distribution of thunderstorms around Hurricane Elsa remained asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Elsa. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Hurricane Elsa.

Hurricane Elsa will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge. The ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Hurricane Elsa. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear that will inhibit intensification. However, the southwesterly winds may also increase upper level divergence to the northeast of Elsa. Additional upper level divergence could cause the surface pressure to continue to decrease. Hurricane Elsa could intensify a little more on Tuesday night.

Hurricane Elsa will move around the western end of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next 36 hours. The high will steer Elsa toward the north on Tuesday night. Hurricane Elsa will turn toward the northeast on Wednesday when it reaches the westerly winds in the middle latitudes. On its anticipated track the center of Elsa will pass just to the west of Tampa on Tuesday night. Hurricane Elsa could make landfall near Cedar Key on Wednesday. The stronger winds and heavy rain will occur on the eastern side of Hurricane Elsa. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. After the center of Elsa moves north of Tampa, southwesterly winds will push water into Tampa Bay which could cause a storm surge of up to six feet (two meters). Hurricane Elsa could cause a storm surge of 2 to 5 feet (0.6 to 1.6 m) along other parts of the west coast of Florida. A higher storm surge could occur near Cedar Key when the center of Elsa makes landfall. Gusty winds could cause power outages in Florida and southeastern Georgia.

Hurricane Watch Issued for Florida for Tropical Storm Elsa

A Hurricane Watch was issued for a portion of the west coast of Florida because of Tropical Storm Elsa. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 24.1°N and longitude 82.4°W which put it about 50 miles (80 km) southwest of Key West, Florida. Elsa was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Egmont Key to Steinhatchee River, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key to the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Ochlockonee River, Florida. That warning included Naples, Ft. Myers, Tampa, St. Petersburg and Tampa Bay. Tropical Storm Warnings remained in effect for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana and Artemisa. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the St. Marys River, Georgia to the South Santee River, South Carolina.

The center of Tropical Storm Elsa was southwest of Key West, Florida on Tuesday morning. The National Weather Service office in Key West reported a wind gust of 47 m.p.h. (76 km/h). The distribution of thunderstorms around Elsa continued to be asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Elsa. Bands on the western side of the storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center or Elsa generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge. The ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Elsa. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear that will inhibit intensification. However, the southwesterly winds may also increase upper level divergence to the northeast of Elsa. Additional upper level divergence could cause the surface pressure to decrease on Tuesday. Tropical Storm Elsa could intensify on Tuesday and there is a chance that Elsa could strengthen to a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move around the western end of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next several days. The high will steer Elsa toward the north on Tuesday. Tropical Storm Elsa will turn toward the northeast on Wednesday when it reaches the westerly winds in the middle latitudes. On its anticipated track the center of Elsa will pass west of the Key West on Tuesday morning. The center of Tropical Storm Elsa could pass west of Tampa on Tuesday night. The stronger winds and heavy rain will occur on the eastern side of Elsa. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Winds pushing water toward the coast could cause a storm surge of up to six feet (two meters) in Tampa Bay. Tropical Storm Elsa could cause a storm surge of 2 to 5 feet (0.6 to 1.6 m) in the Florida Keys and along the west coast of Florida. A higher storm surge could occur near where the center of Elsa makes landfall. Gusty winds could cause power outages in the Florida Keys and on the Florida peninsula. Elsa will continue to drop heavy rain over parts of Cuba as rainbands on the southern side of the circulation move across the regions

Tropical Storm Elsa Crosses Cuba

Tropical Storm Elsa moved across Cuba during Monday afternoon and evening. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 23.5°N and longitude 82.3°W which put it about 80 miles (130 km) south-southwest of Key West, Florida. Elsa was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key to the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Ochlockonee River, Florida. That warning included Naples, Ft. Myers, Tampa, St. Petersburg and Tampa Bay. Tropical Storm Warnings remained in effect for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana and Artemisa. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida.

The center of Tropical Storm Elsa moved across western Cuba during Monday afternoon and evening. The center passed just to the east of Havana before it moved over water north of Cuba. Tropical Storm Elsa continued to exhibit an organized circulation on satellite and radar imagery even after it spent half a day over land. A reconnaissance plane found sustained winds of 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) over water north of Cuba. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern and northern sides of the center of Elsa. Strong thunderstorms were occurring in bands near south Florida and south of Cuba. Storms near the center of Tropical Storm Elsa generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge. The ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Elsa. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear that will inhibit intensification. However, the southwesterly winds may also increase upper level divergence to the northeast of Elsa. Tropical Storm Elsa could intensify on Tuesday and there is a chance that Elsa could strengthen to a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move around the western end of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next several days. The high will steer Elsa toward the north-northwest during the next few hours. Elsa will move more toward the north on Tuesday. On its anticipated track the center of Elsa will pass west of the Florida Keys on Tuesday morning. The center of Tropical Storm Elsa could pass west of Tampa on Tuesday night. The stronger winds and heavy rain will occur on the eastern side of Elsa. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Winds pushing water toward the coast could cause a storm surge of up to six feet (two meters) in Tampa Bay. Tropical Storm Elsa could cause a storm surge of 2 to 5 feet (0.6 to 1.6 m) in the Florida Keys and along the west coast of Florida. A higher storm surge could occur near where the center of Elsa makes landfall. Gusty winds could cause power outages in the Florida Keys and on the Florida peninsula. Elsa will continue to drop heavy rain over parts of Cuba as rainbands on the southern side of the circulation move across the regions

Tropical Storm Elsa Churns South of Cuba

Tropical Storm Elsa was churning south of Cuba on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 21.5°N and longitude 81.2°W which put it about 20 miles (35 km) east-southeast of Cayo Largo, Cuba. Elsa was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key to the Dry Tortugas and for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Suwannee River, Florida. The Tropical Storm Warnings included Naples, Ft. Myers, Tampa, St. Petersburg and Tampa Bay. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Mayabeque, Havana, Artmemisa. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key to Ocean Reef including Florida Bay and for the portion of the coast from Suwannee River, Florida to Indian Pass, Florida.

Tropical Storm Elsa exhibited a little more organization on Monday morning. More thunderstorms formed north and east of the center of Elsa. However, the distribution of thunderstorms remained asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the east side of Tropical Storm Elsa. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles from the center of Elsa.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge. The ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Elsa. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear that will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Elsa could strengthen a little before it reaches Cuba. Elsa will weaken when the center crosses Cuba. Tropical Storm Elsa could regain some strengthen when it moves over warm water southwest of the Florida Keys, but the upper level ridge will continue to cause vertical wind shear.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move around the western end of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next several days. The high will steer Elsa toward the northwest during the next few hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Elsa will make landfall on the south coast of Cuba southeast of Havana in a few hours. The center of Elsa will pass west of the Florida Keys on Tuesday morning. The center of Tropical Storm Elsa could pass west of Tampa on Tuesday night. The stronger winds and heavy rain will occur on the eastern side of Elsa. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Winds pushing water toward the coast could cause a storm surge of up to six feet ( two meters) along the southern coast of Cuba. Tropical Storm Elsa could cause a storm surge of 2 to 4 feet (0.6 to 1.2 m) in the Florida Keys and along the west coast of Florida. A high storm surge could occur near where the center of Elsa makes landfall.

Tropical Storm Elsa Drops Heavy Rain on Cuba and Jamaica

Tropical Storm Elsa dropped heavy rain over Cuba and Jamaica on Sunday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 19.8°N and longitude 77.9°W which put it about 15 miles (25 km) west of Cabo Cruz, Cuba. Elsa was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key to the Dry Tortugas. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key to Ocean Reef including Florida Bay, and for the portion of the coast from from Flamingo to Anclote River, Florida including Tampa Bay. Hurricane Watches were in effect for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Santiago de Cuba. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for Jamaica and for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Villa Clara, Matanzas, Maybeque, and Havana. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Cayman Brac, Little Cayman and the Cuban province of Artemisa.

Tropical Storm Elsa exhibited organization on visible satellite images and images from weather radars in southeastern Cuba. However, reconnaissance planes flying through Elsa on Sunday morning reported that the tropical storm was not as organized as it appeared to be on satellite and radar images. The planes found that the maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and that the minimum surface pressure had increased to 1009 mb, which was an usually high pressure for a tropical storm.

The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands south and east of the center of Tropical Storm Elsa. Bands in the northwestern part of Elsa consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Air sinking down sides of mountains in southeastern Cuba may have been inhibiting the development of thunderstorms in the northwestern quadrant of the circulation. Storms near the center of Elsa generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under an upper level ridge where the winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Air on the northern side of Tropical Storm Elsa will pass over Cuba where friction will slow it. However, once Elsa moves west of Jamaica, air converging from the southwest will be able to blow directly toward the center of the tropical storm. A stronger flow of warm humid air from the southwest could provide more energy to the tropical storm. Tropical Storm Elsa could intensify on Monday and there is a chance it could strengthen back to a hurricane before the center moves over Cuba. Elsa will weaken when the center crosses Cuba.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move around the western end of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next several days. The high will continue to steer Tropical Storm Elsa toward the northwest on Sunday night. Elsa will move more toward the north-northwest on Monday. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Elsa could make landfall on the south coast of Cuba near Cienfuegos on Monday afternoon. Elsa could reach the Florida Keys on Monday night. Elsa will continue to cause gusty winds and locally heavy rain over parts of Jamaica and Cuba. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.