Category Archives: Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic TCs

Tropical Storm Colin Forms on South Carolina Coast

Tropical Storm Colin formed on the coast of South Carolina on Saturday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Colin was located at latitude 33.6°N and longitude 79.3°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) west-southwest of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. Colin was moving toward the northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1012 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from South Santee River, South Carolina to Duck, North Carolina.

A small low pressure system dropped heavy rain over the area around Charleston, South Carolina on Friday. An area of winds to tropical storm force was detected off the coast of South Carolina on Saturday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Colin. The strongest winds were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Colin, which was over the Atlantic Ocean. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the eastern side of Colin’s circulation. The winds over land were weaker. The heaviest rain was also falling in the bands over the Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical Storm Colin will move through an environment that is unfavorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Although the Sea Surface Temperatures off the coast of North Carolina are near 27˚C, the center of Colin’s circulation is likely to move along the coast. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will cause moderate vertical wind shear. Proximity to land and vertical wind shear are likely to prevent Tropical Storm Colin from strengthening during the next 36 hours.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Storm Colin toward the northeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Colin will move along the coast of North Carolina. Colin could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of North Carolina.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Bonnie was moving along the border between Nicaragua and Costa Rica. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was located at latitude 11.2°N and longitude 85.8°W which put it about 65 miles (105 km) southeast of Managua, Nicaragua. Bonnie was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb. Tropical Storm Bonnie will move over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean in a few hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the Caribbean coast from Limon, Costa Rica to Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the Pacific coast from Cabo Blanco, Costa Rica to the border between Nicaragua and Honduras.

Tropical Storm Bonnie Hits Nicaragua and Costa Rica

Tropical Storm Bonnie hit southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica on Friday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was located at latitude 10.9°N and longitude 83.8°W which put it about 75 miles (120 km) south of Bluefields, Nicaragua. Bonnie was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the Caribbean coast from Limon, Costa Rica to Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the Pacific coast from Cabo Blanco, Costa Rica to the border between Nicaragua and Honduras.

The center of Tropical Storm Bonnie made landfall on the Caribbean coast near the border between Nicaragua and Costa Rica on Friday night. Bonnie was beginning to strengthen rapidly just prior to landfall. A reconnaissance plane reported an eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) had developed at the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) on the northern side of Bonnie’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 20 miles (30 km) on the southern side of Tropical Storm Bonnie.

Tropical Storm Bonnie will move south of the western part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea. The high pressure system will steer Bonnie toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Bonnie will move along the border between Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Bonnie will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica. Heavy rain could cause flash floods and mudslides in some locations. Bonnie will move over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Saturday.

Tropical Storm Bonnie will weaken while it moves over land. Mountains are likely to disrupt the low level circulation and to cause the developing eye and eyewall to dissipate. Bonnie will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C when it moves over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. Bonnie is forecast to strengthen back to a tropical storm when it moves over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean and it could intensify to a hurricane in a couple of days.

Tropical Storm Bonnie Forms over Southwest Caribbean Sea

Tropical Storm Bonnie formed over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was located at latitude 11.2°N and longitude 81.9°W which put it about 195 miles (315 km) east-southeast of Bluefields, Nicaragua. Bonnie was moving toward the west at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for San Andres Island, Colombia. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the Caribbean coast from Limon, Costa Rica to Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the Pacific coast from Cabo Blanco, Costa Rica to the border between Nicaragua and Honduras.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft found westerly winds in the southwestern part of former Potential Tropical Cyclone Two on Friday morning. Based on data from the reconnaissance plane, the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Bonnie. More thunderstorms formed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie. Storms near the center of Bonnie generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the northern side of Bonnie’s circulation. Winds in the southern side of Tropical Storm Bonnie were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Bonnie will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Bonnie will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will be under an upper level ridge over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea. The upper level winds are weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Bonnie will strengthen during the next 12 hours. Bonnie will weaken when it moves over Nicaragua and Costa Rica, but it could strengthen again over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Saturday.

Tropical Storm Bonnie will move south of the western part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea. The high pressure system will steer Bonnie toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Bonnie will hit southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica on Friday night. Bonnie will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica. Heavy rain could cause flash floods and mudslides in some locations.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Moves Toward Nicaragua

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two moved over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea toward Nicaragua on Thursday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two was located at latitude 11.8°N and longitude 77.7°W which put it about 410 miles (665 km) east of Bluefields, Nicaragua. Potential Tropical Cyclone Two was moving toward the west at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Laguna de Perlas, Nicaragua to the border with Costa Rica. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for San Andres Island, Colombia. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Limon, Costa Rica to Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Pacific Coast from Cabo Blanco, Costa Rica to Puerto Sandino, Nicaragua.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two exhibited more organization on Thursday night. More thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation. A reconnaissance aircraft found that the surface pressure had decreased slightly. However, there were still parts of the circulation that consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The strongest winds were occurring in the northern half of the circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) on the northern side of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two. The winds in the southern half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two will move through an environment favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. Potential Tropical Cyclone Two will move under an upper level ridge over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea. The upper level winds are weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Potential Tropical Cyclone Two could develop into a tropical storm on Friday.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two will move south of the western part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea. The high pressure system will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Two toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Potential Tropical Cyclone Two will begin to affect southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica on Friday evening. It could be a tropical storm when it approaches the coast. It will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Wave Brings Gusty Winds and Rain to Southern Windward Islands

A tropical wave, currently designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Two brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the southern Windward Islands on Tuesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two was located at latitude 10.9°N and longitude 62.0°W which put it about 105 miles (165 km) west-northwest of Trinidad. Potential Tropical Cyclone Two was moving toward the west-northwest at 26 m.p.h. (43 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1011 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for the coast of Venezuela from Peninsula de Paraguana to the border with Colombia. A Tropical Storm Warning was also issued for the coast of Colombia from Santa Marta to the border with Venezuela. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao and Grenada. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for Islas de Margarita, Coche and Cubagua. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Perdanales to Cumana, Venezuela.

A tropical wave speeding into the southeastern Caribbean Sea brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the southern Windward Islands on Tuesday night. Aircraft reconnaissance and surface observations indicated that the wave did not have a well defined center of circulation at the surface. So, the tropical was was still designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Two.

Satellite images suggested that the circulation around Potential Tropical Cyclone Two was exhibiting more organization. Thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in bands in the northern part of the tropical wave. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two. The winds in the southern half of the system were blowing at less than tropical storm force. Storms near the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two began to generate upper level divergence.

The tropical wave will move south of the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next few days. The high pressure system will steer the tropical wave toward the west. On its anticipated track Potential Tropical Cyclone Two will move near the northern coast of South America during the next 36 hours. It could reach Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao in less than 24 hours.

The tropical wave will move through an environment that is mostly favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. The wave will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move through a region where the winds in the troposphere will blow from the east at most levels and there will be little vertical wind shear. The southern part of the wave will move over northern parts of Venezuela and Colombia. Southerly winds flowing into the tropical wave could bring drier air from South America into the southern part of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two. If the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two remains over the Caribbean Sea, then the circulation around the tropical wave could gradually become more organized during the next 24 hours. If a distinct center of circulation forms at the surface, then the tropical wave would be classified as a tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Warnings Issued for Trinidad, Tobago and Grenada

Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for Trinidad, Tobago and Grenada on Monday afternoon. A tropical wave formerly designated as Invest 94L was redesignated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Two. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two was located at latitude 8.6°N and longitude 50.9°W which put it about 720 miles (1155 km) east of Trinidad. Potential Tropical Cyclone Two was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Trinidad and Tobago, and Grenada and its dependencies.

A NOAA aircraft investigated former Invest 94L on Monday afternoon. The plane was unable to find a distinct low level center of circulation, but it did find winds to tropical storm force. Since there was no distinct low level center of circulation, the system was still considered to be a tropical wave. There was a broad area of counterclockwise rotation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the northern side of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two. The winds in the southern side of the system were blowing at less than tropical storm force. There were mostly showers and lower clouds near the center of the broad rotation. Thunderstorms were occurring in the western and northern parts of the tropical wave. The southern and eastern parts of the wave contained showers and lower clouds.

The tropical wave will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next few days. The high pressure system will steer the tropical wave toward the west. On its anticipated track Potential Tropical Cyclone Two will approach the Windward Islands on Tuesday night.

The tropical wave will move through an environment that is favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next 36 hours. The wave will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move through a region where the winds in the troposphere will blow from the east at most levels and there will be little vertical wind shear. The circulation around the tropical wave could gradually become more organized during the next few days. Potential Tropical Cyclone Two could become a tropical storm before it reaches Trinidad, Tobago and Grenada. Even if the system is still a tropical wave, it will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the southern Windward Islands. Potential Tropical Cyclone Two could also bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the northern coast of Venezuela.

Tropical Wave Moves Toward Windward Islands

A tropical wave designated as Invest 94L moved toward the Windward Islands on Sunday. There was a broad counterclockwise rotation in the lower levels of the wave. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of the broad rotation was located at latitude 7.8°N and longitude 42.8°W which put it about 1250 miles (2015 km) east-southeast of the Windward Islands. The tropical wave was moving toward the west at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

A tropical wave designated as Invest 94L was located midway between Africa and the Windward Islands on Sunday morning. Loops of visible satellite images showed that a broad counterclockwise rotation was occurring in the lower levels of the tropical wave. There were mostly showers and lower clouds near the center of the broad rotation. Many of the thunderstorms were in the western and northern parts of the tropical wave. The southern eastern parts of the wave contained showers and lower clouds.

The tropical wave will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the tropical wave toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track the tropical wave could approach the Windward Islands on Tuesday.

The tropical wave will move into an environment that is favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone. The wave will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move through a region where the winds in the troposphere will blow from the east at most levels and there will be little vertical wind shear. The circulation around the tropical wave could gradually become more organized during the next few days. The National Hurricane Center is indicating the probability is 70% that the tropical wave develops into a tropical depression during the next five days. A NOAA aircraft is tentatively scheduled to investigate the tropical wave on Monday, if necessary.

Strong Tropical Wave over Eastern Atlantic

A strong tropical wave was over the eastern Atlantic Ocean on Thursday night. The tropical wave was designated as Invest 94L. It was located along longitude 27.0°W which put it about 2200 miles (3560 km) east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles. The tropical wave was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1012 mb.

The axis of a strong tropical wave, also designated as Invest 94L, was located along longitude 27.0°W. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring south of latitude 11.0°N. Satellite derived data indicated that there was some rotation near the axis of the wave. Thunderstorms near the axis of the tropical wave generated upper level divergence.

The tropical wave will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the tropical wave toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track the tropical wave could approach the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday.

The tropical wave will move through an environment that is favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone. The wave will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move through a region where the winds in the troposphere will blow from the east at most levels and there will be little vertical wind shear. The National Hurricane Center is indicating the probability is 40% that the tropical wave develops into a tropical depression during the next five days.

Possible Development over Southwest Caribbean Sea

A tropical depression or tropical storm could develop over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea east of Nicaragua during the next few days. An area of low pressure at the surface, currently designated as Invest 93L, is over that area. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Invest 93L was located at latitude 11.8°N and longitude 82.2°W which put it about 110 miles (175 km) east of Bluefields, Nicaragua. Invest 93L was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

Invest 93L was located on the eastern side of a larger area of low pressure that extends from the Southwestern Caribbean Sea across Central America to the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. A second, small low pressure system, currently designated as Invest 93E, was located over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of El Salvador. Visible satellite images appeared to show some counterclockwise rotation of lower clouds over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea east of Nicaragua. A few thunderstorms formed near the apparent center of circulation, but the system did not possess enough organization to be classified as a tropical depression.

Invest 93L will be in an environment that is somewhat favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next few days. Invest 93L will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. If Invest 93L remains over the Southwest Caribbean Sea, it could develop into a tropical depression during the next 48 hours. However, if the center of Invest 93L moves inland over Nicaragua, then it will not develop. The National Hurricane Center is indicating there is a probability of 40% that Invest 93L develops into a tropical cyclone. A reconnaissance plane has been tentatively tasked to investigate Invest 93L on Wednesday afternoon, if necessary.

Invest 93L will move near the southwestern part of a high pressure system that extends from the Western Atlantic Ocean over the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. The steering winds are weak near the southwestern part of the high pressure system, but those winds could steer Invest 93L slowly toward the northwest during the next few days. On its anticipated track, Invest 93L will move close to the coast of Nicaragua. Invest 93L could drop heavy rain over parts of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica and El Salvador. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some places.

Tropical Storm Alex Brings Gusty Winds to Bermuda

Tropical Storm Alex brought gusty winds to Bermuda on Monday morning. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Alex was located at latitude 33.8°N and longitude 65.1°W which put it about 100 miles (160 km) north-northwest of Bermuda. Alex was moving toward the east-northeast at 28 m.p.h. (44 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Alex brought gusty winds to Bermuda on Monday morning as the center of Alex was passing north of the island. A Bermuda Weather Service buoy at Crescent Reef reported a sustained wind speed of 55 m.p.h. (89 km/h) with gusts to 72 m.p.h. (116 km/h). The Bermuda airport reported a sustained wind speed of 39 m.p.h. (63 km/h) with gusts to 59 m.p.h. (95 km/h).

Tropical Storm Alex was in the middle of a transition to an extratropical cyclone when it passed north of Bermuda on Monday morning. The bands near the center of Alex consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Thunderstorms were occurring in a band located 200 miles (320 km) southeast of the center of Tropical Storm Alex. An upper level trough near the East Coast of the U.S. was producing strong westerly winds that were blowing across the top of Alex’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear. Drier air was being pulled into the center of Tropical Storm Alex. Alex was also moving over cooler Sea Surface Temperatures. The combination of vertical wind shear, drier air and cooler water was causing the transition to an extratropical cyclone.

Tropical Storm Alex will continue to move through an environment favorable for the transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Alex will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24˚C. The upper level trough will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear and the drier air will inhibit the formation of thunderstorms near the center of Alex’s circulation. Tropical Storm Alex could complete a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough near the East Coast of the U.S. will steer Tropical Storm Alex quickly toward the east-northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated path Tropical Storm Alex will move quickly away from Bermuda on Monday afternoon. Wind speeds will decrease on Bermuda as Alex moves farther away.