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Rafael Weakens to a Tropical Storm

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Former Hurricane Rafael weakened to a tropical storm over the central Gulf of Mexico on Friday night.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located at latitude 25.0°N and longitude 90.8°W which put the center about 265 miles (425 km) north-northwest of Progreso, Mexico.  Rafael was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Former Hurricane Rafael continued to weaken over the central Gulf of Mexico on Friday night. An upper level low over the central U.S. was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Rafael’s circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear. Drier air was being pulled into the western side of Tropical Storm Rafael.  The combination of moderate vertical wind shear and drier air caused Rafael to continue to weaken.

The moderate vertical wind shear was also affecting the structure of Tropical Storm Rafael.  New thunderstorms were still developing near the center of Rafael’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also still occurring in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Rafael.  Bands in the western side of Rafael’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.   Storms near the center of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical storm.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Rafael was small. Wind to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Rafael’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Rafael will move through an environment mostly unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  However the upper level low over the central U.S. will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  More drier air will also get pulled into the western side of Rafael’s circulation.  The combination of moderate vertical wind shear and drier air is likely to cause Tropical Storm Rafael to weaken gradually during the next 24 hours.  Rafael could maintain its intensity today, if the wind shear does not get any stronger.

The winds steering Tropical Storm Rafael will be weak during the next 24 hours. As a result, on its anticipated track, Rafael will meander over the central Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.

Hurricane Rafael Weakens Over Gulf of Mexico

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Hurricane Rafael weakened over the central Gulf of Mexico on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Hurricane Rafael was located at latitude 24.6°N and longitude 89.7°W which put the center about 230 miles (365 km) north of Progreso, Mexico.  Rafael was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

Hurricane Rafael started to weaken over the central Gulf of Mexico on Friday afternoon.  An upper level low over the central U.S. was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Rafael’s circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  Drier air was being pulled into the western side of Hurricane Rafael.  The combination of moderate vertical wind shear and drier air caused Hurricane Rafael to start to weaken.

The moderate vertical wind shear was also affecting the structure of Hurricane Rafael.  An eye was no longer visible at the center of Rafael’s circulation.  The western part of the former eyewall weakened and that part of the eyewall consisted of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in the eastern part of the former eyewall.  Thunderstorms were also still occurring in bands in the eastern side of Hurricane Rafael.  Storms near the center of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Rafael was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Rafael’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Hurricane Rafael.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Rafael was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.0.  Hurricane Rafael was similar in intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.  Rafael was bigger than Idalia was.

Rafael will move into an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  However the upper level low over the central U.S. will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  More drier air will also get pulled into the western side of Rafael’s circulation.  The combination of moderate vertical wind shear and drier air will cause Hurricane Rafael to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The winds steering Hurricane Rafael will weaken during the next 24 hours.  As a result, on its anticipated track, Hurricane Rafael will meander over the central Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.

Hurricane Rafael Moves Over Southeastern Gulf of Mexico

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Hurricane Rafael moved over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Hurricane Rafael was located at latitude 24.7°N and longitude 86.2°W which put the center about 325 miles (520 km) northeast of Progreso, Mexico.  Rafael was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

Hurricane Rafael weakened a little on Wednesday night as it moved across western Cuba.  Rafael strengthened again on Thursday when it moved over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Rafael’s circulation and an eye formed again at the center of Hurricane Rafael.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Rafael’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the hurricane. The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Rafael was small.  Wind to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Rafael’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Hurricane Rafael.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Rafael was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.8.  Hurricane Rafael was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Rafael will move into an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the eastern periphery of a large upper level trough that extends from the North Central U.S. to the Southwest U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Rafael’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Hurricane Rafael could intensify during the next 24 hours.  The wind shear is likely to increase during the weekend and Rafael is likely to weaken when the shear increases.

Hurricane Rafael will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that extends from the western Atlantic Ocean to the Gulf of Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Rafael toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Rafael will move toward the central Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Milton Forms Over Western Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Storm Milton formed over the western Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Milton was located at latitude 22.3°N and longitude 95.3°W which put the center about 365 miles (590 km) west-northwest of Progreso, Mexico.  Milton was moving toward the north-northeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).   The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico strengthened on Saturday and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Milton.  The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Milton was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Milton’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern half of Tropical Storm Milton consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Milton’s circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Milton move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Milton will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Milton will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Milton is likely to strengthen to a hurricane by early next week.

Tropical Storm Milton will move around the western end of a high pressure system that extends over the Gulf of Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Milton slowly toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  An upper level trough over the central U.S. will steer Milton more quickly toward the east-northeast early next week.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Milton will approach the west coast of Florida on Tuesday night.

Tropical Storm Milton is very likely to be a hurricane when it approaches the west coast of Florida.  Milton could be a major hurricane.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Kirk and Hurricane Leslie continued to churn over the Atlantic Ocean.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Kirk was located at latitude 27.6°N and longitude 50.3°W which put the center about 1525 miles (2455 km) west-southwest of the Azores.  Kirk was moving toward the north at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Leslie was located at latitude 11.1°N and longitude 35.4°W which put the center about 785 miles (1260 km) west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Leslie was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Storm Beryl Prompts Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches for Texas

The risk posed by Tropical Storm Beryl prompted the issuance of Hurricane and Storm Watches for a portion of the coast of Texas.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located at latitude 21.2°N and longitude 89.2°W which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) east-southwest of Progreso, Mexico.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect from the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Rio Grande River to Sargent, Texas.  The Hurricane Watch included Corpus Christi.  A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Rio Grande River to Barra el Mezquital, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Campeche to Cabo Catoche, Mexico.

A Storm Surge Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Rio Grande River to Sargent, Texas.

Former Hurricane Beryl weakened to a tropical storm as it moved across the northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday.  An eye was no longer detectable on visible satellite images, but the core of Beryl’s circulation appeared to be relatively intact.  Thunderstorms were still occurring near the center of Tropical Storm Beryl.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation.  Storms near the center still generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km/h) from the center of Tropical Storm Beryl.

Tropical Storm Beryl will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the southeastern U.S.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Beryl will move toward the coast of Texas.  Beryl could approach the coast of Texas on Sunday night.

Beryl will move into an environment that will become more favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the eastern part of an upper level low over the western Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level low will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent strengthening.  Tropical Storm Beryl is likely to strengthen slowly during the next 24 hours until the inner core of the circulation becomes more organized.  Beryl could intensify more rapidly when it approaches the Texas coast on Sunday.  Tropical Storm Beryl is very likely to intensify back to a hurricane.  There is a chance Beryl could intensify to a major hurricane by the end of the weekend.

 

 

Zeta Brings Hurricane Force Winds to Yucatan, Warnings Issued for Gulf Coast

Zeta brought hurricane force winds to part of the Yucatan Peninsula early on Tuesday and warnings were issued for the Gulf Coast. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located at latitude 21.0°N and longitude 88.4°W which put it about 85 miles (135 km) east-southeast of Progreso, Mexico. Zeta was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border. THe Hurricane Warning includes New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line, Florida. The Hurricane Warning for the coast of Mexico from Punta Allen to Progreso was changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Intracoastal City to Morgan City, Louisiana.

Hurricane Zeta made landfall on the northeastern part of the Yucatan Penisula just north of Tulum, Mexico on Monday night. Weather stations in Playa del Carmen and on Cozumel reported sustained wind speeds of hurricane force. Zeta dropped heavy rain over parts of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. The heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Zeta weakened to a tropical storm when it moved across the northern Yucatan. The center of Tropical Storm Zeta was just about to emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday morning. The circulation around Zeta remained intact. Thunderstorms were occurring around the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Storm Zeta. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Wins to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Zeta.

Tropical Storm Zeta will move over the southern Gulf of Mexico during the next few hours. Zeta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C when it reaches the Gulf.  It will be under the western part of an upper level ridge where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Zeta is likely to intensify back into a hurricane on Tuesday. An upper level trough over the southwestern U.S. will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Hurricane Zeta on Wednesday. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear and Zeta could weaken when it moves over the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Zeta will move around the western end of a ridge of high pressure. The ridge will steer Zeta toward the northwest on Tuesday. Zeta will move more toward the north on Wednesday when it moves around the western end of the ridge. The upper level trough is likely to steer Zeta toward the northeast as it approaches the Gulf Coast. Zeta could approach the coast of southeast Louisiana on Wednesday afternoon. Zeta is likely to still be a hurricane when it approaches the Gulf Coast

Tropical Storm Delta Develops South of Jamaica

Former Tropical Depression Twentysix strengthened into Tropical Storm Delta south of Jamaica on Monday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Delta was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 78.4°W which put it about 65 miles east of the Mouth of the Mississippi River and about 130 miles south of Negril, Jamaica.  Delta was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the Isle of Youth, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa, Cuba.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Cayman Islands.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for La Habana, Cuba.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of former Tropical Depression Twentysix on Monday morning and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Delta.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Delta was still organizing.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Delta.  The strongest rainbands were in the southern half of the circulation.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass allowed the pressure to decrease, which caused the wind speed to increase.

Tropical Storm Delta will move through an environment which will be very favorable for intensification.  Delta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30˚C.  It will move under an upper level ridge where the winds are weak.  There will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Delta will intensify and it could strengthen into a hurricane by Tuesday night.  Once an inner core with an eye and an eyewall develops, Delta could intensify rapidly.  There is a chance Tropical Storm Delta could strengthen into a major hurricane.

Tropical Storm Delta will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Delta toward the northwest during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Delta could reach the Cayman Islands on Monday night.  Delta could be near the western end of Cuba by Tuesday night and it is likely to be a hurricane at that time.  Delta could approach the central Gulf Coast on Thursday night.  It could be a major hurricane when it approaches the Gulf Coast.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Gamma weakened as it meandered north of the Yucatan Peninsula.  Strong southerly winds in the upper levels blew the top off of Tropical Storm Gamma on Sunday night.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located at latitude 22.6°N and longitude 87.5°W which put it about 165 miles (270 km) east-northeast of Progreso, Mexico.  Gamma was moving toward the south-southwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cancun to Dzilam, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coat from Dzilam to Campeche, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Gamma Emerges over Southern Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Storm Gamma emerged over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located at latitude 22.4°N and longitude 88.0°W which put it about 120 miles (195 km) east-northeast of Progreso, Mexico.  Gamma was moving toward the north at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect from Cancun to Dzilam, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect from Dzilam to Progreso, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Gamma emerged over the Gulf of Mexico north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday.  The circulation around Gamma was relatively intact after its passage over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula.  Thunderstorms persisted near the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Gamma.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the north of the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Gamma.

Tropical Storm Gamma will be in an environment that will become less favorable for intensification.  Gamma will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is 30°C.  So, there will be sufficient energy to support intensification.  However, Tropical Storm Gamma will be under the western end of an upper level ridge centered over the Bahamas.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of Gamma.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and they could be strong enough to blow the upper part of Gamma north of the circulation in the lower levels.

Northward movement of Tropical Storm Gamma is likely to be blocked by a ridge which will form in the middle troposphere over the northern Gulf  of Mexico.  After it forms, that ridge is likely to steer Gamma slowly toward the west or west-southwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Gamma will move slowly toward the west-southwest and it will remain just north of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropical Storm Gamma Brings Wind and Rain to Yucatan

Tropical Storm Gamma brought wind and rain to the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located at latitude 20.4°N and longitude 87.6°W which put it about 15 miles (25 km) north-northwest of Tulum, Mexico.  Gamma was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Allen to Cancun, Mexico including Cozumel.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Punta Herrero to Punta Allen and from Cancun to Dzilam, Mexico.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the portions of the coast from Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya and from Dzilam to Progreso, Mexico.

The center of Tropical Storm Gamma made landfall on the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula near Tulum around midday on Saturday.  Gamma strengthened quickly over the warm water in the Northwest Caribbean Sea in the hours prior to landfall.  An eye was beginning to form at the center of Tropical Storm Gamma at the time of landfall.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the developing eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Gamma.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Gamma will weaken while the center of circulation moves over land.  When Gamma emerges over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, it will move into an environment favorable for intensification.  Gamma will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will be under the western side of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Gamma.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but they are not likely to be strong enough to keep Gamma from strengthening when it gets back over water.

Tropical Storm Gamma will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Gamma toward the north-northwest during next 24 hours.  A large, cool high pressure system over the eastern U.S. will block the northward movement of Tropical Storm Gamma when it reaches the southern Gulf of Mexico.  That high pressure system will steer Gamma slowly toward the west during the earl part of next week.

On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Gamma will move across northern Quintana Roo and the state of Yucatan.  Gamma will cause gusty winds along the eastern and northern coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula.  Tropical Storm Gamma will drop heavy rain over parts of Quintana Roo and Yucatan.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.