Tag Archives: Rafael

Hurricane Rafael Hits Western Cuba

Hurricane Rafael hit western Cuba late on Wednesday afternoon.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Rafael was located at latitude 22.6°N and longitude 82.7°W which put the center about 45 miles (75 km) south-southwest of Havana, Cuba.   Rafael was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 950 mb.

A  Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys from Key West to Channel 5 Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Dry Tortugas. 

Hurricane Rafael intensified to a major hurricane on Wednesday before it hit western Cuba.  Concentric eyewalls formed in the core of Rafael’s circulation.  An eyewall replacement cycle started, but the inner eyewall was still intact when Hurricane Rafael hit western Cuba.  Since the inner eyewall was still intact, Rafael did not weaken before it hit Cuba.

Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the concentric eyewalls.  Storms near the core of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Rafael was small.  Wind to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Rafael’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the eastern side of Hurricane Rafael.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the western side of Rafael.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Rafael was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.4.  Hurricane Rafael was similar in intensity to Hurricane Delta when Delta hit Louisiana in 2020.  Rafael was not as big as Delta was.

Hurricane Rafael will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Rafael toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Rafael will move across western Cuba during the next few few hours.  Rafael will move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday.

Hurricane Rafael will bring strong winds and heavy rain to western Cuba.  Strong winds could cause widespread electricity outages in Cuba.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.  Rafael could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the south coast of western Cuba.  Hurricane Rafael will be capable of causing localized major damage.

Hurricane Rafael will weaken as it moves across western Cuba.  Rafael will move into an environment somewhat favorable for intensification after it moves north of Cuba.  Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the eastern periphery of a large upper level trough that extends from the North Central U.S. to the Southwest U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Rafael’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Hurricane Rafael will could intensify on Thursday after it moves north of Cuba.

Hurricane Rafael Approaches Western Cuba

Hurricane Rafael was approaching western Cuba on Wednesday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Rafael was located at latitude 21.4°N and longitude 81.9°W which put the center about 130 miles (210 km) south-southeast of Havana, Cuba.  Rafael was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

A  Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritis, and Ciego de Avila.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Florida Keys from Key West to Channel 5 Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Dry Tortugas. 

Hurricane Rafael began to intensify more rapidly on Wednesday morning.  Two concentric eyewalls formed at the center of Rafael’s circulation.  A small inner eye was at the center of Hurricane Rafael.  The inner eye was surrounded by a tight ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the inner eye and eyewall and a larger, outer eyewall formed.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the concentric eyewalls.  Storms near the core of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Rafael was small.  Wind to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Rafael’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the eastern side of Hurricane Rafael.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the western side of Rafael.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Rafael was 19.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 6.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.0.  Hurricane Rafael was similar in intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.  Rafael was not as big as Zeta was.

Hurricane Rafael will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Rafael will intensify during the next few hours.  Rafael is likely to strengthen to a major hurricane.

Hurricane Rafael will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Rafael toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Rafael will reach western Cuba in a few hours.

Hurricane Rafael will bring strong winds and heavy rain to western Cuba.  Strong winds could cause widespread electricity outages in Cuba.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.  Rafael could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the south coast of western Cuba.  Hurricane Rafael will be capable of causing localized major damage.

Rafael Intensifies to a Hurricane Near Cayman Islands

Former Tropical Storm Rafael intensified to a hurricane near the Cayman Islands on Tuesday evening.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Rafael was located at latitude 19.7°N and longitude 80.4°W which put the center about 60 miles (95 km) east-northeast of Grand Cayman.  Rafael was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, and Cayman Brac.  A  Hurricane Warning was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritis, and Ciego de Avila.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Florida Keys from Key West to Channel 5 Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas.

Former Tropical Storm Rafael intensified to a hurricane on Tuesday evening.  A circular eye with a diameter of 15 miles (17 km) formed at the center of Rafael’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Rafael.  Storms near the core of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Hurricane Rafael.  Wind to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the eastern side of Rafael’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the western side of Hurricane Rafael.

Hurricane Rafael will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Rafael will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Rafael could intensify rapidly at times.

Hurricane Rafael will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Rafael toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Rafael will move away from the Cayman Islands.  Rafael is likely to reach western Cuba by Wednesday afternoon.

Hurricane Rafael will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Cayman Islands for the next few hours.  Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations. Rafael could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) in the Cayman Islands.  Hurricane Rafael will bring strong winds and heavy rain to western Cuba.  Strong winds could cause widespread electricity outages in Cuba.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  Rafael could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the south coast of western Cuba.

Tropical Storm Rafael Brings Wind and Rain to Jamaica

Tropical Storm Rafael was bringing wind and rain to Jamaica on Tuesday morning.  The center of Rafael was just southwest of Jamaica.  At 7:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 78.4°W which put the center about 80 miles (130 km) south-southwest of Montego Bay, Jamaica.  Rafael was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, and Cayman Brac.  A  Hurricane Warning was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Jamaica. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritis, and Ciego de Avila.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Florida Keys from Key West to Channel 5 Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas.

Tropical Storm Rafael was strengthening on Tuesday morning as it passed near Jamaica.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western and southern sides of the center of Rafael’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Rafael.  Storms near the center of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Storm Rafael was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) in the eastern side of Rafael’s circulation.  The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Rafael were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Rafael will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Rafael will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Rafael could intensify rapidly at times.  Tropical Storm Rafael is likely to strengthen to a hurricane by Tuesday night.

Tropical Storm Rafael will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Rafael toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Rafael will reach the Cayman Islands by Tuesday night.  Rafael is likely to reach western Cuba by Wednesday afternoon.

Tropical Storm Rafael will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain Jamaica for the rest of Tuesday.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Rafael is likely to be a hurricane when it moves over the Cayman Islands.  Rafael will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Cayman Islands.  It could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) in the Cayman Islands.  Rafael will be a hurricane when it reaches western Cuba.  Strong winds could cause widespread electricity outages in Cuba.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Depression Strengthens to Tropical Storm Rafael

Former Tropical Depression Eighteen strengthened to Tropical Storm Rafael south of Jamaica on Monday afternoon.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 76.7°W which put the center about 175 miles (280 km) south of Kingston, Jamaica.  Rafael was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, and Cayman Brac,

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Jamaica.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Florida Keys from Key West to Channel 5 Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritis, Ciego de Avila, Camaguey and Las Tunas.

Former Tropical Depression Eighteen strengthened on Monday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Rafael.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Rafael was organizing rapidly.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Rafael’s circulation.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of circulation.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Rafael.  Storms near the center of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away fro the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Tropical Storm Rafael will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Rafael will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Rafael could intensify rapidly at times.  Tropical Storm Rafael is likely to strengthen to a hurricane on Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Rafael will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Rafael toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Rafael will pass near Jamaica on Monday night.  Rafael  will reach the Cayman Islands by Tuesday night.  Rafael is likely to reach western Cuba by Wednesday afternoon.

Tropical Storm Rafael will bring strong winds and heavy rain Jamaica. Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Rafael is likely to be a hurricane when it moves over the Cayman Islands.  Rafael will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Cayman Islands.  It could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) in the Cayman Islands.