Tag Archives: Isle of Youth

Hurricane Rafael Hits Western Cuba

Hurricane Rafael hit western Cuba late on Wednesday afternoon. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Rafael was located at latitude 22.6°N and longitude 82.7°W which put the center about 45 miles (75 km) south-southwest of Havana, Cuba. Rafael was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 950 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys from Key West to Channel 5 Bridge. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Dry Tortugas.

Hurricane Rafael intensified to a major hurricane on Wednesday before it hit western Cuba. Concentric eyewalls formed in the core of Rafael’s circulation. An eyewall replacement cycle started, but the inner eyewall was still intact when Hurricane Rafael hit western Cuba. Since the inner eyewall was still intact, Rafael did not weaken before it hit Cuba.

Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the concentric eyewalls. Storms near the core of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Rafael was small. Wind to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Rafael’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the eastern side of Hurricane Rafael. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the western side of Rafael.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Rafael was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.4. Hurricane Rafael was similar in intensity to Hurricane Delta when Delta hit Louisiana in 2020. Rafael was not as big as Delta was.

Hurricane Rafael will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Rafael toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Rafael will move across western Cuba during the next few few hours. Rafael will move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday.

Hurricane Rafael will bring strong winds and heavy rain to western Cuba. Strong winds could cause widespread electricity outages in Cuba. Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations. Rafael could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the south coast of western Cuba. Hurricane Rafael will be capable of causing localized major damage.

Hurricane Rafael will weaken as it moves across western Cuba. Rafael will move into an environment somewhat favorable for intensification after it moves north of Cuba. Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the eastern periphery of a large upper level trough that extends from the North Central U.S. to the Southwest U.S. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Rafael’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification. Hurricane Rafael will could intensify on Thursday after it moves north of Cuba.

Hurricane Rafael Approaches Western Cuba

Hurricane Rafael was approaching western Cuba on Wednesday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Rafael was located at latitude 21.4°N and longitude 81.9°W which put the center about 130 miles (210 km) south-southeast of Havana, Cuba. Rafael was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritis, and Ciego de Avila.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Florida Keys from Key West to Channel 5 Bridge. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Dry Tortugas.

Hurricane Rafael began to intensify more rapidly on Wednesday morning. Two concentric eyewalls formed at the center of Rafael’s circulation. A small inner eye was at the center of Hurricane Rafael. The inner eye was surrounded by a tight ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the inner eye and eyewall and a larger, outer eyewall formed. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the concentric eyewalls. Storms near the core of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Rafael was small. Wind to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Rafael’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the eastern side of Hurricane Rafael. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the western side of Rafael.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Rafael was 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 6.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.0. Hurricane Rafael was similar in intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020. Rafael was not as big as Zeta was.

Hurricane Rafael will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Rafael will intensify during the next few hours. Rafael is likely to strengthen to a major hurricane.

Hurricane Rafael will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Rafael toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Rafael will reach western Cuba in a few hours.

Rafael Intensifies to a Hurricane Near Cayman Islands

Former Tropical Storm Rafael intensified to a hurricane near the Cayman Islands on Tuesday evening. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Rafael was located at latitude 19.7°N and longitude 80.4°W which put the center about 60 miles (95 km) east-northeast of Grand Cayman. Rafael was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, and Cayman Brac. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritis, and Ciego de Avila.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Florida Keys from Key West to Channel 5 Bridge. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas.

Former Tropical Storm Rafael intensified to a hurricane on Tuesday evening. A circular eye with a diameter of 15 miles (17 km) formed at the center of Rafael’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Rafael. Storms near the core of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Hurricane Rafael. Wind to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the eastern side of Rafael’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the western side of Hurricane Rafael.

Hurricane Rafael will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Rafael will intensify during the next 24 hours. Rafael could intensify rapidly at times.

Hurricane Rafael will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Cayman Islands for the next few hours. Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations. Rafael could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) in the Cayman Islands. Hurricane Rafael will bring strong winds and heavy rain to western Cuba. Strong winds could cause widespread electricity outages in Cuba. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Rafael could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the south coast of western Cuba.

Tropical Storm Rafael Brings Wind and Rain to Jamaica

Tropical Storm Rafael was bringing wind and rain to Jamaica on Tuesday morning. The center of Rafael was just southwest of Jamaica. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 78.4°W which put the center about 80 miles (130 km) south-southwest of Montego Bay, Jamaica. Rafael was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Jamaica. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritis, and Ciego de Avila.

Tropical Storm Rafael was strengthening on Tuesday morning as it passed near Jamaica. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western and southern sides of the center of Rafael’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Rafael. Storms near the center of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Storm Rafael was asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) in the eastern side of Rafael’s circulation. The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Rafael were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Rafael will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Rafael will intensify during the next 24 hours. Rafael could intensify rapidly at times. Tropical Storm Rafael is likely to strengthen to a hurricane by Tuesday night.

Tropical Storm Rafael will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Rafael toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Rafael will reach the Cayman Islands by Tuesday night. Rafael is likely to reach western Cuba by Wednesday afternoon.

Tropical Storm Rafael will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain Jamaica for the rest of Tuesday. Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations. Rafael is likely to be a hurricane when it moves over the Cayman Islands. Rafael will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Cayman Islands. It could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) in the Cayman Islands. Rafael will be a hurricane when it reaches western Cuba. Strong winds could cause widespread electricity outages in Cuba. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Depression Strengthens to Tropical Storm Rafael

Former Tropical Depression Eighteen strengthened to Tropical Storm Rafael south of Jamaica on Monday afternoon. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 76.7°W which put the center about 175 miles (280 km) south of Kingston, Jamaica. Rafael was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, and Cayman Brac,

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Jamaica.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.

Former Tropical Depression Eighteen strengthened on Monday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Rafael. The circulation around Tropical Storm Rafael was organizing rapidly. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Rafael’s circulation. More thunderstorms formed near the center of circulation. More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Rafael. Storms near the center of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away fro the tropical storm. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Tropical Storm Rafael will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Rafael toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Rafael will pass near Jamaica on Monday night. Rafael will reach the Cayman Islands by Tuesday night. Rafael is likely to reach western Cuba by Wednesday afternoon.

Tropical Storm Rafael will bring strong winds and heavy rain Jamaica. Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations. Rafael is likely to be a hurricane when it moves over the Cayman Islands. Rafael will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Cayman Islands. It could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) in the Cayman Islands.

Hurricane Helene Strengthens to Cat. 2

Hurricane Helene strengthened to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Helene was located at latitude 24.5°N and longitude 85.9°W which put the center about 365 miles (585 km) south of Apalachicola, Florida. Helene was moving toward the north-northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Englewood, Florida. The Hurricane Watch includes Tampa Bay. .

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Flamingo, Florida. The Tropical Storm Warning includes Tampa Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys west of Channel 5 Bridge. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo, Florida to Little River Inlet, South Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio and Isle of Youth.

A U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Hurricane Helene had strengthened to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Thursday morning. An eye with a diameter of 30 miles (48 km) was at the center of Helene’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Helene. Storms near the center of Helene generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane. The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Hurricane Helene was large. Winds to hurricane force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Helene’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 345 miles (555 km) in the eastern side of Hurricane Helene. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the western side of Helene’s circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) is 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 17.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) 34.1. Hurricane Helene is similar in intensity to Hurricane Idalia that hit northeast Florida in 2023. However, Helene is much bigger than Idalia was. Helene is still intensifying. So, Helen will be stronger than Idalia was when i reaches the coast.

Hurricane Helene will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Helene will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Helene will intensify during the next 12 hours. Helene is likely to strengthen to a major hurricane by Thursday afternoon. Helene could intensify rapidly at times.

Hurricane Helene will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Helene toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Helene will make landfall on the coast of northern Florida at Apalachee Bay Thursday evening. Helene is likely to be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast

Hurricane Helene is likely to be a major hurricane when it reaches northern Florida. Helene will be a large and dangerous hurricane. Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Florida. Heavy rain is likely to cause floods.

Flood Watches are in effect for Florida, eastern Alabama, Georgia, western South Carolina, western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee.

Helene could also cause a storm surge of up to 20 feet (6.1 meters) along portions of the west coast of Florida.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Mexico Beach to Flamingo, Florida. The Storm Surge Warning includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

An upper level trough over the Mississippi River Valley will steer Hurricane Helene quickly toward the north-northeast after it makes landfall. Since the circulation around Helene is so large, Hurricane Helene will produce hurricane force winds in inland locations as well.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for parts of northern Florida, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia. The Hurricane Warnings include Tallahassee, Florida and Macon, Georgia.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Florida Peninsula, northwest Florida eastern Alabama, northern and eastern Georgia, all of South Carolina, southwestern North Carolina, and southeastern Tennessee. The Tropical Storm Warnings include Atlanta, Georgia and Charleston, South Carolina.

Hurricane Helene is likely to cause widespread electricity outages as it moves inland over the southeastern U.S.

Helene Strengthens to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Helene strengthened to a hurricane northeast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Helene was located at latitude 21.6°N and longitude 86.3°W which put the center about 500 miles (810 km) south-southwest of Tampa, Florida. Helene was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico. That Hurricane Warning includes Cancun and Cozumel.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Englewood, Florida. The Hurricane Watch includes Tampa Bay. A Hurricane Watch is also in effect for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Flamingo, Florida. The Tropical Storm Warning includes Tampa Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys west of Channel 5 Bridge. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio and Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from South Santee River to Little River Inlet, South Carolina.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that former Tropical Storm Helene had strengthened to a hurricane on Wednesday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern, western and southern sides of the center of Helene’s circulation. An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Hellene. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Helene. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Hurricane Helene. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 275 miles (445 km) in the eastern side of Helene’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) in the eastern side of Hurricane Helene.

Hurricane Helene will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Helene will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico and the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Helene will intensify during the next 24 hours. Helene is likely to strengthen to a major hurricane by Thursday afternoon. Helene could intensify rapidly after an inner core with an eye and an eyewall is fully developed.

Hurricane Helene will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Helene toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Helene will approach northern Florida on Thursday afternoon. Helene is likely to be a major hurricane when it reaches the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Helene is likely to be a major hurricane when it approaches northern Florida on Thursday. Helene will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Florida. Heavy rain is likely to cause floods.

Flood Watches are in effect for Florida, eastern Alabama, and Georgia.

Helene could also cause a storm surge of up to 15 feet (4.5 meters) along portions of the west coast of Florida.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Flamingo, Florida. The Storm Surge Warning includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Mexico Beach, Florida.

Tropical Storm Helene Prompts Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings for Florida

The risk posed by Tropical Storm Helene prompted the issuance of a Hurricane Warning and a Storm Surge Warning for the west coast of Florida. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located at latitude 19.7°N and longitude 84.7°W which put the center about 155 miles (250 km) east-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Helene was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line, Florida to Savannah River, Georgia.

Tropical Storm Helene strengthened on Tuesday afternoon. The center of Helene’s circulation was near NOAA buoy 42056. The buoy measured a surface pressure of 996 mb.

The inner end of a rainband started to wrap around the center of Tropical Storm Helene. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Helene’s circulation. More thunderstorms also developed in bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Helene. Storms near the center of Helene’s circulation generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Even though Tropical Storm Helene was strengthening, the distribution of wind speeds around Helene was still asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Helene. The winds in the western side of Helene’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Helene will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Helene will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico and the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Helene will intensify during the next 24 hours. Helene is likely to strengthen to a hurricane by Wednesday morning. Helene could intensify rapidly after an inner core with an eye and an eyewall develops.

Tropical Storm Helene will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Helene toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Helene will be near the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday morning. Helene will move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. Helene is likely to approach northern Florida on Thursday afternoon.

Tropical Storm Helene is likely to be a hurricane when it reaches the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. Helene will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula and to western Cuba.

Tropical Storm Helene could be a major hurricane when it approaches northern Florida on Thursday. Helene will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Florida. Heavy rain is likely to cause floods. Helene could also cause a storm surge of up to 15 feet (4.5 meters) along portions of the west coast of Florida.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Flamingo, Florida. The Storm Surge Warning includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

Tropical Storm Helene Forms Over Northwest Caribbean Sea

Tropical Storm Helene formed over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located at latitude 19.4°N and longitude 84.5°W which put the center about 175 miles (280 km) south of the western tip of Cuba. Helene was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Englewood, Florida. The Hurricane Watch includes Tampa Bay. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico. The Hurricane Watch includes Cancun and Cozumel. A Hurricane Watch is also in effect for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Lower Florida Keys west of Seven Mile Bridge. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning includes Cancun and Cozumel. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio and Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Middle Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to Channel 5 Bridge. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Englewood to Flamingo, Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Walton/Bay County Line to Indian Pass, Florida.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft found that a low pressure system previously designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine had strengthened over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday morning. Based on data collected by the reconnaissance flight, the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Helene.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Helene exhibited more organization on Tuesday. The reconnaissance plane found a well defined low level center of circulation. Even though the circulation around Helene was more organized, the distribution of thunderstorms was still asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Helene. Bands in the western side of Helene consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. More thunderstorms were starting to develop in the bands in the western side of Helene’s circulation. Storms near the center of Helene began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Helene was also asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the eastern side of Helene’s circulation. The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Helene were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Flamingo, Florida. The Storm Surge Watch includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

Watches and Warnings Issued for Yucatan and Western Cuba

A risk posed by a low pressure system over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea prompted the issuance of Watches and Warnings for Yucatan and western Cuba on Monday morning. The low pressure system was designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine by the U.S. National Hurricane Center. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 82.0°W which put the center about 350 miles (565 km) south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine was moving toward the north at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico. The Hurricane Watch includes Cancun and Cozumel. A Hurricane Watch is also in effect for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning includes Cancun and Cozumel. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio and Isle of Youth.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center changed the designation of former Invest 97L to Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine on Monday morning. The low pressure system still had a large asymmetrical circulation. There were not many thunderstorms near the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands developed in the eastern side of the low pressure system. Bands in the western side of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will move through an environment favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. The low pressure system will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the western Caribbean Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is likely to form into a tropical depression or a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

A reconnaissance plane is on its way to investigate Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will move approach Yucatan and the western end of Cuba on Tuesday afternoon. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is likely to move over the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine could be a hurricane when it reaches Yucatan and western Cuba. It will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is likely to affect Florida on Thursday. It is likely to be a hurricane when it reaches Florida.

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