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Nicole Strengthens to a Hurricane East of Florida

Former Tropical Storm Nicole strengthened to a hurricane east of Florida on Wednesday evening. At 7:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Nicole was located at latitude 26.6°N and longitude 78.5°W which put it about 100 miles (160 km) east of West Palm Beach, Florida. Nicole was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Boca Raton to the Flagler/ Volusia County Line, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included West Palm Beach, Ft. Pierce, Melbourne and Daytona Beach. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the Abacos, Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Boca Raton to Hallandale Beach, Florida. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Bimini. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida to the South Santee River, South Carolina. The Tropical Storm Warning includes Jacksonville, Florida and Charleston, South Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to Indian Pass, Florida. The Tropical Storm Warning included Tampa and St. Petersburg.

Former Tropical Storm Nicole intensified to a hurricane when it move over the warm water in the Gulf Stream Current on Wednesday evening. The eye of Hurricane Nicole was over Grand Bahama Island. The eye had a diameter of 30 miles (50 km). The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in the northern part of that ring. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Nicole. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease at the center of circulation.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Hurricane Nicole, but the overall circulation was very large. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 480 miles (775 km) from the center of Nicole’s circulation. Stations along the east coast of Florida reported sustained wind speeds of tropical storm force on Wednesday evening. Electricity outages were reported in several areas. Northeasterly winds were pushing water toward the coast and water level rises were reported from South Carolina to Florida. Large waves were causing significant beach erosion along the east coast of Florida.

Hurricane Nicole will continue to move through an environment that is favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Nicole will move over warm water in the Gulf Stream Current where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Nicole will extract more energy from the warmer water and it is likely to strengthen a little more during the next few hours.

Hurricane Nicole will move around the southwestern part of a surface high pressure system currently over the northeastern U.S. The high pressure system will steer Nicole toward the west-northwest during the next 12 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Nicole will make landfall on the east coast of Florida near or just to the north of West Palm Beach on Wednesday night. Nicole will be a hurricane when it reaches Florida. Hurricane Nicole will continue to bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the east coast of Florida. The winds in the northern side of Nicole will continue to blow water toward the coast of Florida and the Southeast U.S. Those winds could cause a storm surge of up to 6 feet (1.8 meters) in some locations. Large waves will keep breaking on the coast and they will cause significant beach erosion.

Hurricane Nicole will move northwest across Central Florida on Thursday. Nicole will weaken back to a tropical storm when it moves across Florida. Nicole could bring tropical storm force winds to the area around Orlando. The center of Nicole will be over northern Florida on Thursday evening. Widespread electricity outages could occur in central and northern Florida. Nicole will drop locally heavy rain over central and northern Florida, and southern Georgia. Heavy rain could cause fresh water floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Nicole Brings Wind and Rain to Northwestern Bahamas

Tropical Storm Nicole brought wind and rain to the Northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday afternoon. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located at latitude 26.5°N and longitude 77.9°W which put it about 135 miles (220 km) east of West Palm Beach, Florida. Nicole was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Boca Raton to the Flagler/ Volusia County Line, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included West Palm Beach, Ft. Pierce, Melbourne and Daytona Beach. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the Abacos, Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Boca Raton to Hallandale Beach, Florida. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Bimini. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida to the South Santee River, South Carolina. The Tropical Storm Warning includes Jacksonville, Florida and Charleston, South Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to Indian Pass, Florida. The Tropical Storm Warning included Tampa and St. Petersburg.

The center of Tropical Storm Nicole passed over Great Abaco Island in the Northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday. The center of Nicole’s circulation was just to the southeast of Grand Bahama Island on Wednesday afternoon. The inner end of a rainband wrapped completely around the center of circulation. An eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) formed at the center of Tropical Storm Nicole. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Nicole. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease at the center of circulation.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Tropical Storm Nicole, but the overall circulation was very large. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 480 miles (775 km) from the center of Nicole’s circulation. Stations along the east coast of Florida reported sustained wind speeds of tropical storm force on Wednesday afternoon. Electricity outages were reported in several areas. Northeasterly winds were pushing water toward the coast and water level rises were reported from South Carolina to Florida. Large waves were causing significant beach erosion along the east coast of Florida.

Tropical Storm Nicole will move through an environment that is favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Nicole will move over warm water in the Gulf Stream Current where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move into a region where the upper level winds are weaker and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Nicole will extract more energy from the warmer water and it is likely to intensify to a hurricane during the next few hours.

Tropical Storm Nicole will move around the southwestern part of a surface high pressure system currently over the northeastern U.S. The high pressure system will steer Nicole toward the west-northwest during the next 12 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Nicole will make landfall on the east coast of Florida near or just to the north of West Palm Beach on Wednesday night. Nicole is likely to be a hurricane when it reaches Florida. Nicole will continue to bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the east coast of Florida. The winds in the northern side of Nicole will continue to blow water toward the coast of Florida and the Southeast U.S. Those winds could cause a storm surge of up to 6 feet (1.8 meters) in some locations. Large waves will keep breaking on the coast and they will cause significant beach erosion.

Tropical Storm Nicole will move northwest across Central Florida on Thursday. Nicole could bring tropical storm force winds to the area around Orlando. The center of Nicole will be over northern Florida on Thursday evening. Widespread electricity outages could occur in central and northern Florida. Tropical Storm Nicole will drop locally heavy rain over central and northern Florida, and southern Georgia. Heavy rain could cause fresh water floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Ian Near Cape Canaveral

The center of Tropical Storm Ian was near Cape Canaveral, Florida on Thursday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located at latitude 28.5°N and longitude 80.7°W which put it about 10 miles (15 km) west of Cape Canaveral, Florida. Ian was moving toward the northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina. The Hurricane Watch included Savannah, Georgia and Charleston, South Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Jupiter Inlet, Florida to Cape Lookout, North Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to Indian Pass, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Lake Okeechobee.

Tropical Storm Ian was still producing strong winds along the east coast of Florida on Thursday morning. A National Weather Service station in Daytona Beach, Florida (KDAB) reported a sustained wind speed of 55 m.p.h. (89 km/h) and a wind gust of 76 m.p.h. (122 km/h).

Former major Hurricane Ian weakened to a tropical storm while it blew across Central Florida on Wednesday night. The structure of Ian also changed when it weakened. The areas of tropical storm force winds expanded over the Atlantic Ocean. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 400 miles (645 km) on the east side of Ian’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) on the western side of the circulation. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern and western parts of Tropical Storm Ian. Bands in the southern and eastern parts of Ian consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Storm Ian was in the early stage of a transition to an extratropical cyclone. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Ian’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear was tilting upper part of Ian’s circulation toward the northeast. The wind shear was also starting Ian’s transition to an extratropical cyclone. Drier air was wrapping around the southern side of Tropical Storm Ian. The drier air was contributing to the lack of heavy rain in the southern and eastern parts of Ian.

Tropical Storm Ian will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Ian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. The upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will continue to produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ian’s circulation. Those winds will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Ian could intensify, if the center moves over the warm water in the Gulf Stream current. Ian could strengthen back to a hurricane during the next 36 hours.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Storm Ian toward the north during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track the center Tropical Storm Ian could make landfall in South Carolina on Friday afternoon. Ian could be a strong tropical storm or a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale when it reaches South Carolina. Ian will bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Easterly winds blowing around the northern side of Tropical Storm Ian will blow water toward the coast. A storm surge of 4 to 6 feet (1.2 to 1.8 meters could occur.

Hurricane Ian Moves Closer to Southwest Florida

Hurricane Ian moved closer to Southwest Florida on Tuesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Ian was located at latitude 24.9°N and longitude 82.9°W which put it about 110 miles (175 km) southwest of Naples, Florida. Ian was moving toward the north-northeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee to Anclote River, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included Tampa Bay. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for all of the Florida Keys. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Chokoloskee, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropcial Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Indian Pass, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque and Matanzas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Bimini and Grand Bahama Island.

Hurricane Ian appeared to go through a quick eyewall replacement cycle on Tuesday evening. The original eye and eyewall quickly dissipated and a new larger eye was evident on satellite and radar images. The new eye had a diameter of 35 miles (55 km). The new eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Ian’s circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and east of the hurricane.

The quick eyewall replacement cycle temporarily interrupted the intensification of Hurricane Ian, but it also caused the circulation around Ian to get bigger. Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Ian’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 36.2. Hurricane Ian was capable of causing regional major damage.

Ian will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Ian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ian’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear. The wind shear is not likely to be strong enough during the next 12 hours to prevent intensification of Hurricane Ian. Ian could strengthen to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Wednesday morning. The upper level winds are likely to get stronger on Wednesday afternoon which would cause the wind shear to increase. Hurricane Ian is likely to start to weaken slowly when the vertical wind shear increases.

The upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will steer Hurricane Ian toward the north-northeast on Wednesday. On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Ian could make landfall on the coast of Southwest Florida between Ft. Myers and Sarasota on Wednesday afternoon. Ian could move slowly inland over Central Florida on Thursday. Hurricane Ian is likely to bring a prolonged period of strong gusty winds to Southwest Florida and to Central Florida. Ian will be capable of causing major damage. A prolonged period of strong winds could cause widespread electricity outages. Hurricane Ian will move slowly inland and 10 to 20 inches of rain could fall in some locations. Extensive fresh water flooding could occur in Central Florida. A storm surge of 8 to 12 feet (2.4 to 3.5 meters) could occur along the coast of Southwest Florida.

The center of Hurricane Ian could make landfall near the location where Hurricane Charley made landfall in 2004. Ian will not be as strong as Charley was in 2004, but Ian will be a lot bigger than Charley. Hurricane Ian could be stronger than Hurricane Irma was in 2017 when Irma hit Southwest Florida, but Ian will not be as big as Irma was.

Storm Storm Bertha Forms Near South Carolina

Tropical Storm Bertha formed quickly near the coast of South Carolina on Wednesday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was located at latitude 32.7°N and longitude 79.4°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) east-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina.  Bertha was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

The National Hurricane Center issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the portion of the coast from Edisto Beach to South Santee River, South Carolina.

The circulation around a low pressure system off the southeast coast of the U.S. organized quickly on Wednesday morning.  A distinct center of circulation was evident on radar.  Radar and satellite images also showed bands of showers and thunderstorms revolving around the center of circulation.  NOAA buoy 41004 southeast of Charleston, South Carolina measured a sustained wind speed of 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and a gust to 58 m.p.h. (94 km/h).  Based on all of that information the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Bertha.

Tropical Storm Bertha will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Bertha toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Bertha will make landfall on the coast of South Carolina east of Charleston later on Wednesday.  Bertha will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 24°C.  It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  Based on recent trends Tropical Storm Bertha could strengthen before it makes landfall.  Bertha will drop heavy rain over eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina.  The heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.  Waves will cause erosion along the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina.