Tag Archives: Jacksonville

Center of Tropical Storm Debby Near Savannah

The center of Tropical Storm Debby was near Savannah, Georgia on Tuesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located at latitude 31.9°N and longitude 81.0°W which put the center about 15 miles (25 km) south of Savannah, Georgia.  Debby was moving toward the east-northeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound Georgia to Surf City, North Carolina.  The Tropical Storm Warning included Charleston, South Carolina.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Surf City to Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina.

Tropical Storm Debby continued to drop heavy rain over parts of South Carolina and eastern Georgia.  The airport at Charleston, South Carolina reported 8.11 inches (206 mm) of rain during the past 24 hours.  Valdosta, Georgia received 2.75 inches (70 mm) of rain.  Sarasota, Florida reported 11.06 inches (281 mm) of rain from Debby.  Gainesville, Florida received 6.80 inches (173 mm) of rain.  Jacksonville, Florida reported 4.70 inches (119 mm) of rain.  It is likely that higher rainfall totals occurred in some places where bands moved persistently over the same locations.

Southerly winds blowing around the eastern side of Tropical Storm Debby were pushing water toward the coast of South Carolina.  There were numerous reports of water in streets in Charleston, South Carolina.

Tropical Storm Debby weakened during the day it spent moving slowly across northern Florida and southeastern Georgia.  Drier air wrapped around the western and southern sides of Debby’s circulation.  Bands in the southwestern and southeastern quadrants of Tropical Storm Debby consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Showers and thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the outer parts of the northeastern and northwestern quadrants of Tropical Storm Debby.  There were also showers and lower clouds near the center of Debby.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Debby was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 205 miles (330 km) in the eastern side of Debby.  Those winds were occurring in bands in the outer parts of Debby’s circulation.  The winds in the parts of Debby’s circulation that were over land were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Debby will move into an environment favorable for intensification.  Debby will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the southeastern U.S.  The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The drier air in the southern part of Debby’s circulation will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Debby is likely to intensify slowly during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Debby will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours.  Debby is likely to move slowly toward the east-northeast during the rest of Tuesday.  A high pressure system located east of Tropical Storm Debby is forecast to strengthen on Wednesday.  That high pressure system will steer Debby slowly toward the north on Wednesday.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Debby could approach the coast of South Carolina on Wednesday night.

Tropical Storm Debby will continue to drop heavy rain on parts of South Carolina, North Carolina and eastern Georgia.  Since Debby will move slowly, persistent heavy rain is likely to cause floods.

Flood Watches are in effect for parts of South Carolina, North Carolina and eastern Georgia.

Southerly winds blowing around the eastern side of Tropical Storm Debby will continue to push water toward the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina.  Debby could cause a storm surge of up to 6 feet (1.8 meters).

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to South Santee River, South Carolina.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina.

Low Pressure System Approaches Southeast U.S.

A small low pressure system was approaching the Southeast U.S. on Friday morning.  The low pressure system was officially designated as Invest 92L by the U.S. National Hurricane Center.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of the low pressure system was located at latitude 30.4°N and longitude 79.5°W which put it about 135 miles (215 km) east of Jacksonville, Florida.  The low pressure system was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1014 mb.

The low pressure system approaching the Southeast U.S. was officially designated as Invest 92L, but it exhibited many of the characteristics of a tropical depression.  Thunderstorms were occurring near the center of the low pressure system.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the southern half of the circulation around Invest 92L.  Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds, although there were also a few thunderstorms.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southwest of the low pressure system.

The low pressure system approaching the Southeast U.S. will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge that stretches from Texas to Maine.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of the low pressure system.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification.  The low pressure system could strengthen a little, if the upper level winds do not get stronger.

The low pressure system will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the western Atlantic Ocean and eastern U.S.  The high pressure system will steer Invest 92L toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the low pressure system will make landfall on the coast of Georgia later on Friday.

The low pressure system designated as Invest 92L will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of northeastern Florida and eastern Georgia.  It will also generate waves and rip currents along the coast.  The waves could cause some minor coastal erosion.

Tropical Storm Nicole Brings Wind and Rain to Florida

Tropical Storm Nicole brought wind and rain to Florida on Thursday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located at latitude 29.4°N and longitude 83.2°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) northwest of Cedar Key, Florida. Nicole was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. The Tropical Storm Warning included Jacksonville. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Aripeka to Indian Pass, Florida.

Tropical Storm Nicole brought wind and rain as it moved across Central Florida. Nicole weakened gradually as it moved across the Florida Peninsula, but it still had a well organized circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 170 miles (275 km) from the center of Nicole’s circulation.

The strongest winds in Tropical Storm Nicole occurred near the east coast of Florida on Thursday. A weather station in Daytona Beach reported a sustained wind speed of 49 m.p.h. (79 km/h) and a wind gust of 70 m.p.h. (113 km/h). A weather station in St. Augustine reported a sustained wind speed of 46 m.p.h. (74 km/h) and a wind gust of 59 m.p.h. (95 km/h). A weather station in Jacksonville reported a sustained wind speed of 37 m.p.h. (59 km/h) and a wind gust of 56 m.p.h. (91 km/h). The winds were weaker along the west coast of Florida. A weather station in Tampa reported a sustained wind speed of 29 m.p.h. (46 km/h) and a wind gust of 53 m.p.h. (85 km/h).

An upper level trough and a surface cold front over the central U.S. will turn Tropical Storm Nicole toward the northeast during Thursday night. The center of Nicole will be over southern Georgia on Thursday night and it could be over western South Carolina by Friday afternoon. Tropical Storm Nicole will continue to weaken during the next 24 hours. Nicole will produce gusty winds over northern Florida, southern Georgia and parts of South Carolina. Those winds could cause scattered power outages. The large waves causing serious beach erosion along the east coast of Florida will start to diminish on Friday. Waves could cause some erosion of beaches in Georgia and South Carolina on Friday when Tropical Storm Nicole moves farther to the north. Nicole could drop locally heavy rain over parts of northern Florida, southern Georgia, and South Carolina. Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.

Hurricane Nicole Makes Landfall in Florida

Hurricane Nicole made landfall in Florida early on Thursday. Nicole weakened to a tropical storm after it made landfall. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located at latitude 27.8°N and longitude 80.7°W which put it about 60 miles (95 km) southeast of Orlando, Florida. Nicole was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Boca Raton, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina. The Tropical Storm Warning included West Palm Beach, Ft. Pierce, Daytona Beach, Jacksonville, and Charleston, South Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to Indian Pass, Florida, The Tropical Storm Warning included Tampa and St. Petersburg.

According to the National Hurricane Center, the center of Hurricane Nicole made landfall on the east coast of Florida just to the south of Vero Beach. The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km) at the time of landfall. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the eastern side of Nicole’s circulation at the time of landfall. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 450 miles (725 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Nicole weakened to a tropical storm after the center moved inland over Central Florida, but Nicole was bringing strong, gusty winds to Central Florida. A weather station in Vero Beach reported a sustained wind speed of 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 60 m.p.h. (97 km/h). A weather station in Melbourne reported a sustained wind speed of 52 m.p.h. (84 km/h) and a wind gust of 64 m.p.h. (103 km/h). A weather station in Orlando reported a sustained wind speed of 43 m.p.h. (69 km/h) and a wind gust of 63 m.p.h. (102 km/h). Tropical Storm Nicole was dropping heavy rain over parts of the Florida Peninsula.

Tropical Storm Nicole will move around the southwestern part of a surface high pressure system near the East Coast of the U.S. The high pressure system will steer Nicole toward the northwest during the next 12 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Nicole will move over northern Florida on Thursday evening. An upper level trough and a cold front will approach Nicole from the west on Thursday night. The upper level trough and cold front will steer Tropical Storm Nicole toward the northeast on Friday. The center of Nicole could be over South Carolina on Friday afternoon.

Tropical Storm Nicole will weaken gradually as it moves across Central Florida. Nicole will continue to bring strong, gusty winds to central and northern Florida. Gusty winds could cause widespread power outages. Even though the center of Nicole will be inland, easterly winds will continue to blow water toward the east coast of Florida. Tropical Storm Nicole could cause a storm surge of up to 5 feet (1.5 meters) in some locations. Large waves will continue to cause significant beach erosion. Nicole will drop heavy rain over parts of central and northern Florida and southern Georgia. Heavy rain could cause fresh water floods in some locations.

Nicole Strengthens to a Hurricane East of Florida

Former Tropical Storm Nicole strengthened to a hurricane east of Florida on Wednesday evening. At 7:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Nicole was located at latitude 26.6°N and longitude 78.5°W which put it about 100 miles (160 km) east of West Palm Beach, Florida. Nicole was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Boca Raton to the Flagler/ Volusia County Line, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included West Palm Beach, Ft. Pierce, Melbourne and Daytona Beach. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the Abacos, Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Boca Raton to Hallandale Beach, Florida. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Bimini. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida to the South Santee River, South Carolina. The Tropical Storm Warning includes Jacksonville, Florida and Charleston, South Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to Indian Pass, Florida. The Tropical Storm Warning included Tampa and St. Petersburg.

Former Tropical Storm Nicole intensified to a hurricane when it move over the warm water in the Gulf Stream Current on Wednesday evening. The eye of Hurricane Nicole was over Grand Bahama Island. The eye had a diameter of 30 miles (50 km). The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in the northern part of that ring. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Nicole. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease at the center of circulation.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Hurricane Nicole, but the overall circulation was very large. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 480 miles (775 km) from the center of Nicole’s circulation. Stations along the east coast of Florida reported sustained wind speeds of tropical storm force on Wednesday evening. Electricity outages were reported in several areas. Northeasterly winds were pushing water toward the coast and water level rises were reported from South Carolina to Florida. Large waves were causing significant beach erosion along the east coast of Florida.

Hurricane Nicole will continue to move through an environment that is favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Nicole will move over warm water in the Gulf Stream Current where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Nicole will extract more energy from the warmer water and it is likely to strengthen a little more during the next few hours.

Hurricane Nicole will move around the southwestern part of a surface high pressure system currently over the northeastern U.S. The high pressure system will steer Nicole toward the west-northwest during the next 12 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Nicole will make landfall on the east coast of Florida near or just to the north of West Palm Beach on Wednesday night. Nicole will be a hurricane when it reaches Florida. Hurricane Nicole will continue to bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the east coast of Florida. The winds in the northern side of Nicole will continue to blow water toward the coast of Florida and the Southeast U.S. Those winds could cause a storm surge of up to 6 feet (1.8 meters) in some locations. Large waves will keep breaking on the coast and they will cause significant beach erosion.

Hurricane Nicole will move northwest across Central Florida on Thursday. Nicole will weaken back to a tropical storm when it moves across Florida. Nicole could bring tropical storm force winds to the area around Orlando. The center of Nicole will be over northern Florida on Thursday evening. Widespread electricity outages could occur in central and northern Florida. Nicole will drop locally heavy rain over central and northern Florida, and southern Georgia. Heavy rain could cause fresh water floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Nicole Brings Wind and Rain to Northwestern Bahamas

Tropical Storm Nicole brought wind and rain to the Northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday afternoon. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located at latitude 26.5°N and longitude 77.9°W which put it about 135 miles (220 km) east of West Palm Beach, Florida. Nicole was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Boca Raton to the Flagler/ Volusia County Line, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included West Palm Beach, Ft. Pierce, Melbourne and Daytona Beach. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the Abacos, Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Boca Raton to Hallandale Beach, Florida. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Bimini. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida to the South Santee River, South Carolina. The Tropical Storm Warning includes Jacksonville, Florida and Charleston, South Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to Indian Pass, Florida. The Tropical Storm Warning included Tampa and St. Petersburg.

The center of Tropical Storm Nicole passed over Great Abaco Island in the Northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday. The center of Nicole’s circulation was just to the southeast of Grand Bahama Island on Wednesday afternoon. The inner end of a rainband wrapped completely around the center of circulation. An eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) formed at the center of Tropical Storm Nicole. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Nicole. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease at the center of circulation.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Tropical Storm Nicole, but the overall circulation was very large. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 480 miles (775 km) from the center of Nicole’s circulation. Stations along the east coast of Florida reported sustained wind speeds of tropical storm force on Wednesday afternoon. Electricity outages were reported in several areas. Northeasterly winds were pushing water toward the coast and water level rises were reported from South Carolina to Florida. Large waves were causing significant beach erosion along the east coast of Florida.

Tropical Storm Nicole will move through an environment that is favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Nicole will move over warm water in the Gulf Stream Current where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move into a region where the upper level winds are weaker and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Nicole will extract more energy from the warmer water and it is likely to intensify to a hurricane during the next few hours.

Tropical Storm Nicole will move around the southwestern part of a surface high pressure system currently over the northeastern U.S. The high pressure system will steer Nicole toward the west-northwest during the next 12 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Nicole will make landfall on the east coast of Florida near or just to the north of West Palm Beach on Wednesday night. Nicole is likely to be a hurricane when it reaches Florida. Nicole will continue to bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the east coast of Florida. The winds in the northern side of Nicole will continue to blow water toward the coast of Florida and the Southeast U.S. Those winds could cause a storm surge of up to 6 feet (1.8 meters) in some locations. Large waves will keep breaking on the coast and they will cause significant beach erosion.

Tropical Storm Nicole will move northwest across Central Florida on Thursday. Nicole could bring tropical storm force winds to the area around Orlando. The center of Nicole will be over northern Florida on Thursday evening. Widespread electricity outages could occur in central and northern Florida. Tropical Storm Nicole will drop locally heavy rain over central and northern Florida, and southern Georgia. Heavy rain could cause fresh water floods in some locations.

Subtropical Storm Nicole Strengthens

Subtropical Storm Nicole strengthened on Tuesday morning as it moved over the Western Atlantic Ocean east of the Bahamas. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Subtropical Storm Nicole was located at latitude 27.7°N and longitude 72.0°W which put it about 385 miles (615 km) east of the Northwestern Bahamas. Nicole was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini and Grand Bahama Island. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to Hallandale Beach, Florida. The Hurricane Watch included Melbourne, West Palm Beach and Ft. Lauderdale. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Andros Island, New Providence and Eleuthera. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to Hallandale Beach, Florida. The Tropical Storm Warning includes Jacksonville and Daytona Beach. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Hallandale Beach to Ocean Reef, Florida. The Tropical Storm Watch included Miami. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River, Florida.

Subtropical Storm Nicole began a transition to a tropical storm on Tuesday morning as it gradually strengthened. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Nicole’s circulation. Thunderstorms near the center of circulation is one of the characteristics of a tropical storm. There was still a large area of tropical storm force winds around Nicole, which is one of the characteristics of a subtropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out almost 400 miles (645 km) in the northern side of Subtropical Storm Nicole. Those winds were not entirely being produced by Nicole’s circulation. A large surface high pressure system was over the northeastern U.S. The high pressure system was interacting with the northern side of Nicole’s circulation to generate the large area of tropical storm force winds.

Subtropical Storm Nicole will move through an environment that is favorable for a transition to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. Nicole will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move into a region where the upper level winds are weaker and the vertical wind shear will diminish. Subtropical Storm Nicole is likely to complete the transition to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. Nicole will move over warmer water when it moves over the Gulf Stream on Wednesday. Nicole could intensify to a hurricane when it moves over the warmer water.

The surface high pressure system currently over the northeastern U.S. will block Subtropical Storm Nicole from moving toward the north. The high pressure system will steer Nicole toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Subtropical Storm Nicole will reach the Northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday morning. Nicole will move toward the west-northwest on Wednesday when it reaches the southwestern part of the high pressure system. Nicole will reach the coast of Southeast Florida on Wednesday night. Nicole could be a hurricane when it reaches Florida. Nicole is likely to bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Northwestern Bahamas and to central and northern Florida. The winds in the northern side of Nicole will blow water toward the coast of Florida and the Southeast U.S. Those winds will cause a storm surge and serious beach erosion when Nicole moves toward the coast.

Subtropical Storm Nicole Prompts Hurricane Watch for South Florida

A probable threat posed by Subtropical Storm Nicole prompted the issuance of a Hurricane Watch for part of South Florida on Monday. At 1:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Subtropical Storm Nicole was located at latitude 26.4°N and longitude 70.1°W which put it about 465 miles (720 km) east of the Northwestern Bahamas. Nicole was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to Hallandale Beach, Florida. The Hurricane Watch included Melbourne, West Palm Beach and Ft. Lauderdale. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to the Volusia/Brevard County Line, Florida. The Tropical Storm Watch included Jacksonville and Daytona Beach. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Hallandale Beach to Ocean Reef, Florida. The Tropical Storm Watch included Miami.

Subtropical Storm Nicole was churning over the Atlantic Ocean east of the Bahamas on Monday afternoon. The circulation around Subtropical Storm Nicole continued to exhibit a complex structure that is fairly common late in the hurricane season. The surface center of circulation was northeast of an upper level low east of Florida. The strongest winds near the surface were occurring far to the east of the surface center. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 275 miles (445 km) in the eastern side of Subtropical Storm Nicole. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Nicole. The winds in the southwestern quadrant of Nicole’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Subtropical Storm Nicole will move through an environment that is favorable for a gradual transition to a tropical storm during the next 48 hours. Nicole will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. The upper level low east of Florida will produce southerly winds that will blow across the top of the surface center of Subtropical Storm Nicole during the next 24 hours. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear will inhibit intensification. Nicole will move into a region where the upper level winds are weaker on Tuesday and the wind shear will diminish. Subtropical Storm Nicole is likely to strengthen gradually during the next 24 hours. Nicole will move over warmer water when it moves over the Gulf Stream on Wednesday. Subtropical Storm Nicole is likely to make a transition to a tropical storm when it moves over the warmer water. Nicole could intensify to a hurricane when it moves over the warmer water.

The upper level low east of Florida will steer Subtropical Storm Nicole toward the northwest during the next 18 hours. A surface high pressure system currently over the Great Lakes will move over the East Coast of the U.S. and the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will block Nicole from moving toward the north. The high pressure system will steer Nicole toward the west-southwest on Tuesday and Wednesday. On its anticipated track Subtropical Storm Nicole could reach the Northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday morning. Nicole could reach the coast of Southeast Florida on Wednesday night. Nicole could be a hurricane when it reaches Florida. Nicole is likely to bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Northwestern Bahamas and southern Florida. The winds in the northern side of Nicole will blow water toward the coast of Florida and the Southeast U.S. Those winds will cause a storm surge and serious beach erosion when Nicole moves toward the coast.

Tropical Storm Irma Still Bringing Gusty Winds and Storm Surges to Southeast U.S.

Tropical Storm Irma was still bringing gusty winds, locally heavy rain and storm surges to parts of the Southeastern U.S. on Monday afternoon.  Gusty winds were blowing down trees and bringing down power lines in parts of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina.  Locally heavy rainfall resulted in the issuance of Flood Watches and Warnings for portions of those states.  Strong winds were blowing water toward the coast in northeastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina.  Storm surges caused flooding in Jacksonville, Florida and Savannah, Georgia.  The water level at Charleston, South Carolina was higher than it was during Hurricane Matthew in 2016.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Irma was located at latitude 31.5°N and longitude 84.0°W which put it about 10 miles (15 km) east of Albany, Georgia.  Irma was moving toward the north-northwest at 17 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning remained in effect for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound to South Santee River.

The structure of Tropical Storm Irma evolved as it moved further inland.  Drier air wrapped around the  western side of the circulation.  Convergence between a large surface high north of Irma and the tropical storm produced heavy rain northeast of the center of circulation.  The heaviest rain fell over Georgia, South Carolina and the western half of North Carolina.  The northern edge of the rain shield was moving over Tennessee and southeast Kentucky.  The pressure difference between the high and Irma also generated strong winds in the eastern half of Irma’s circulation.  Those strong winds pushed water toward the coast in northern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina.  The wind caused storm surges of up to 10 feet (3 meters) in some locations.  Water was reported in parts of downtown Jacksonville, Florida and Charleston, South Carolina.

Tropical Storm Irma will continue to move toward the north-northwest and weaken.  The circulation of Irma is very large, and it will take a few more days to spin completely.  There could be stronger winds in the high elevations of Appalachian Mountains.  Locally heavy rain could also create the potential for floods in some valleys.  The storm surges along the coast should gradually subside as the wind speeds decrease.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Jose was moving northward east of the Bahamas.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Jose was located at latitude 31.5°N and longitude 84.0°W which put it about 555 miles (895 km) east of Nassau, Bahamas.  Jose was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.  Hurricane Jose is forecast to make a slow clockwise loop this week.  On it anticipated track Hurricane Jose could still be east of the Bahamas at the end of the week.