Tag Archives: AL11

Tropical Storm Larry Forms South of Cabo Verde Islands

Tropical Storm Larry formed south of the Cabo Verde Islands on Wednesday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Larry was located at latitude 12.3°N and longitude 24.8°W which put it about 175 miles (280 km) south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Larry was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Satellite images indicated that former Tropical Depression Twelve had strengthened on Wednesday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Larry. The circulation around Tropical Storm Larry exhibited more organization. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Larry. Even though the circulation was more organized, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands south and west of the center of Tropical Storm Larry. Bands in the northern and eastern parts of Larry consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) on the western side of Larry. The winds on the eastern side of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Larry will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few days. Larry will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27.5˚C. It will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Larry’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The winds in the lower levels will also blow from the east and so there will not be a lot of vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Larry will strengthen during the next few days. Larry could intensify to a hurricane within 36 hours. Tropical Storm Larry could undergo a period of rapid intensification once an inner core with an eye and an eyewall form. Larry could intensify to a major hurricane during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Larry will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high will steer Larry toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Larry will move farther away from the Cabo Verde islands. Larry could be east of the northern Leeward Islands by the weekend.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Ida was dropping locally heavy rain over parts of the U.S. and Tropical Depression Kate was spinning northeast of the Leeward Islands. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Ida was located at latitude 37.3°N and longitude 82.5°W which put it about 75 miles (120 km) west of Bluefield, West Virginia. Ida was moving toward the northeast at 24 m.p.h. (39 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb. Flash Flood Watches were in effect for the region from West Virginia and eastern Ohio to southern New England.

At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Kate was located at latitude 25.7°N and longitude 51.7°W which put it about 895 miles (1440 km) northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Kate was moving toward the north-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Tropical Storm Kyle Forms East of U.S.

Tropical Storm Kyle formed off the East Coast of the U.S. on Friday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Kyle was located at latitude 37.7°N and longitude 71.7°W which put it about 185 miles (300 km) southeast of Atlantic City, New Jersey.  Kyle was moving toward the east-northeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Based on data from satellites and surface observations the National Hurricane Center (NHC) determined that a low pressure system off the East Coast of the U.S. possessed characteristics of a tropical cyclone and winds to tropical storm force.  NHC designated the system as Tropical Storm Kyle on Friday afternoon.  Kyle had a well defined low level center of circulation.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Tropical Storm Kyle.  Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles to the southeast of the center of circulation.  Winds in the other parts of Kyle were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Kyle will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Kyle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  An upper level trough over eastern Canada and the Great Lakes will produces southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of tropical storm Kyle.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and they will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Kyle could strengthen a little more during the next day or so.

The southwesterly winds will steer Tropical Storm Kyle toward the east-northeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Kyle is forecast to pass south of Nova Scotia and Labrador.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Josephine was spinning east of the northern Leeward Islands.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Josephine was located at latitude 17.8°N and longitude 56.1°E which put it about 460 miles (740 km) east of the northern Leeward Islands.  Josephine was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

TD 11 Strengthens to Tropical Storm Josephine

Former Tropical Depression Eleven strengthened to Tropical Storm Josephine on Thursday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Josephine was located at latitude 13.7°N and longitude 49.2°W which put it about 975 miles (1565 km) east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands.  Josephine was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Satellite imagery indicated that the circulation around former Tropical Depression Eleven exhibited better organization on Thursday morning and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Josephine.  Although the circulation around Tropical Storm Josephine was more organized, the distribution of thunderstorms and wind speeds was still asymmetrical.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northwestern part of Josephine.  Bands in other parts of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) on the northern side of Tropical Storm Josephine.  The winds in the southern half of the circulation were mostly weaker than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Josephine will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next day or so.  Josephine will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Josephine is forecast to strengthen during the next 24 to 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Josephine will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the North Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Josephine toward the west-northwest during he next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Josephine could be near the northern Leeward Islands on Saturday.

Tropical Depression Eleven Forms over the Atlantic

Tropical Depression Eleven formed over the Atlantic Ocean on Tuesday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located at latitude 11.7°N and longitude 40.0°W which put it about 1450 miles (2335 km) east of the Lesser Antilles.  The depression was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

More thunderstorms developed closer to the center of a low pressure system over the tropical Atlantic Ocean on Tuesday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Eleven.  The strongest thunderstorms were developing in bands in the western half of the depression.  Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the depression.

Tropical Depression Eleven will move through an environment which will be favorable for intensification.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  Tropical Depression Eleven is currently moving the a region where the easterly winds are stronger in the lower atmosphere than they are at higher elevations.  The difference in wind speed is creating moderate vertical wind shear, which is contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.  The winds in the lower atmosphere are forecast to weaken, which will reduce the vertical wind shear.  When the shear is reduced Tropical Depression Eleven is likely to strengthen into a tropical storm.

Tropical Depression Eleven will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the North Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Tropical Depression Eleven toward the west-northwest during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Eleven could approach the northern Leeward Islands on Saturday.  It will likely be a tropical storm by that time.

Imelda’s Remnants Cause Flash Floods in Southeast Texas

The remnants of former Tropical Storm Imelda caused flash floods over parts of southeastern Texas on Thursday.  The National Weather Service extended Flash Flood Emergencies for portions of southwestern San Jacinto County, east central Montgomery County, Chambers County and Liberty County.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Imelda was located at latitude 30.5°N and longitude 95.5°W which put it about 55 miles (90 km) north of Houston, Texas.  Imelda was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (9 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

The remnants of former Tropical Storm Imelda remained nearly stationary over southeastern Texas on Thursday morning.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms in the eastern half of the circulation were dropping heavy rain.  There were unofficial reports that some locations had received up to 30 inches (0.9 meters) of rain.  Flash flood were occurring and a portion of Interstate 10 was closed due to high water.  Southeasterly winds were transport very moist air over the region and the heavy rain was forecast to continue.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, former Tropical Storm Jerry strengthened into a hurricane and Hurricane Humberto sped away from Bermuda.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Jerry was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 54.4°W which put it about 490 miles (785 km) east of the Leeward Islands.  Jerry was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for St. Maarten, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, Barbuda, Anguilla, Saba and St. Eustatius.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Humberto was located at latitude 36.8°N and longitude 60.0°W which put it about 415 miles (665 km) northeast of Bermuda.  Humberto was moving toward the northeast at 24 m.p.h. (39 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

Hurricane Humberto Brings Strong Winds to Bermuda

Hurricane Humberto brought strong winds to Bermuda on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Humberto was located at latitude 34.0°N and longitude 63.9°W which put it about 130 miles (215 km) northeast of Bermuda.  Humberto was moving toward the northeast at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

The Hurricane Warning for Bermuda was changed to a Tropical Storm Warning because Hurricane Humberto was moving rapidly away from Bermuda.

Although the center of Hurricane Humberto passed just to the northwest of Bermuda, Humberto did produce hurricane force winds on Bermuda.  The weather station at the L.F. Wade International airport measured a sustained wind speed of 82 m.p.h. (132 km/h) and a wind gust to 114 m.p.h. (184 km/h).  There were reports of power electrical outages and wind damage on Bermuda.  Conditions will improve on Thursday when Hurricane Humberto moves rapidly away from Bermuda.

A trough over the eastern U.S. will steer Hurricane Humberto rapidly toward the northeast on Thursday.  Humberto will move into a less favorable environment.  The upper level trough will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Humberto will start to move over cooler water.  Moderate shear and cooler water will cause Hurricane Humberto to weaken during the next several days.  While Humberto moves into a less tropical environment, it will make a transition to a strong extratropical cyclone.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Imelda continued to drop heavy rain over parts of eastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana and Tropical Storm Jerry threatened the northern Leeward Islands.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Imelda was located at latitude 31.2°N and longitude 94.9°W which put it about 110 miles (175 km) north-northeast of Houston, Texas.  Imelda was moving toward the north at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located at latitude 15.4°N and longitude 51.8°W which put it about 675 miles (1085 km) east of the Leeward Islands.  Jerry was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for St. Maarten, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, Barbuda, Anguilla, Saba and St. Eustatius.

Tropical Storm Jerry Strengthens East of Leeward Islands

Tropical Storm Jerry strengthened east of the Leeward Islands on Wednesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 49.2°W which put it about 855 miles east of the Leeward Islands.  Jerry was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Jerry exhibited much more organization on Wednesday.  A long band of thunderstorms curved around the western and southern sides of the center of circulations.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms developed and began to revolve around the center of circulation.  Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Jerry will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Jerry will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Jerry is likely to strengthen into a hurricane during the next day or two.  Jerry could rapidly intensify once it develops an inner core with an eye and an eyewall.

Tropical Storm Jerry will move south of a subtropical ridge over the Atlantic Ocean.  The ridge will steer Jerry toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Jerry could approach the northern Leeward Islands on Friday.  Jerry is likely to be a hurricane by that time.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Humberto was nearing Bermuda and Tropical Depression Imelda was dropping heavy rain over parts of eastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Humberto was located at latitude 32.4°N and longitude 67.2°W which put it about 140 miles (225 km) west of Bermuda.  Humberto was moving toward the east-northeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.  A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Imelda was located at latitude 30.6°N and longitude 95.6°W which put it about 65 miles (105 km) north of Houston, Texas.  Imelda was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.  Flash Flood Watches were in effect for parts of eastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana.

Hurricane Humberto Strengthens to a Major Hurricane, Warning for Bermuda

Hurricane Humberto strengthened into a major hurricane on Tuesday and a Hurricane Warning was issued for Bermuda.  At 11:00 pm. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Humberto was located at latitude 31.3°N and longitude 71.0°W which put it about 370 miles (595 km) west of Bermuda.  Humberto was moving toward the east-northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 951 mb.

Hurricane Humberto exhibited the structure of a large mature hurricane on Tuesday night.  There was a circular eye at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Humberto.  The stronger rainbands were occurring in the northern half of the circulation.  Humberto appeared to be drawing drier air around the southern half of the circulation and bands in that part of the hurricane consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Winds to hurricane force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Hurricane Humberto.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Humberto was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 37.5.  Hurricane Humberto was capable of causing major wind damage.

Hurricane Humberto will remain in an environment capable of supporting a major hurricane for another 12 to 24 hours.  Humberto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the hurricane.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear may not be strong enough to cause Hurricane Humberto to weaken on Wednesday.

Hurricane Humberto will move around the northern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high and the upper level trough over the eastern U.S.  will combine to steer Humberto toward the east-northeast on Wednesday.  On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Humberto could approach Bermuda on Wednesday evening.  Humberto could still be a major hurricane at that time.  If the center of Hurricane Humberto passes just north of Bermuda, then the strongest winds could affect Bermuda.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Imelda was dropping heavy rain near Houston, Texas and Tropical Depression Ten was churning toward the northern Leeward Islands.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Imelda was located at latitude 29.8°N and longitude 95.5°W which put it about 10 miles (15 km) northwest of Houston, Texas.  Imelda was moving toward the north at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there  were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located at latitude 13.7°N and longitude 46.7°W which put it about 1030 miles (1660 km) east of the Leeward Islands.  It was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Imelda Forms Along Upper Texas Coast

Tropical Storm Imelda formed along the Upper Texas coast on Tuesday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Imelda was located at latitude 29.0°N and longitude 95.3°W which put it near Freeport, Texas.  Imelda was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Sargent to Port Bolivar, Texas.

A small low pressure system over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico exhibited greater organization on satellite and radar images on Tuesday.  When a surface weather station reported a sustained wind speed of 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h), the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Imelda.  The winds to tropical storm force were occurring southeast of the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) in the southeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Imelda.

Tropical Storm Imelda will move around the western end of a warm high pressure system over the southeastern U.S.  The high will steer Imelda slowly toward the north during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Imelda will move slowly inland over east Texas.  Although Imelda will cause a small storm surge along the coast around the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, locally heavy rain will pose a much greater risk.  Southeasterly winds blowing around the eastern side of Tropical Storm Imelda will transport very moist air over parts of eastern Texas.  Over a foot of rain (0.33 meters) could fall in some locations where rain bands linger.  Flash Flood Watches have been issued for a number of counties around Houston and Galveston.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Humberto moved closer to Bermuda and Tropical Depression Ten formed east of the Lesser Antilles.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Humberto was located at latitude 30.8°N and longitude 72.9°W which put it about 490 miles (785 km) west-southwest of Bermuda.  Humberto was moving toward the east-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning were in effect for Bermuda.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located at latitude 12.9°N and longitude 44.9°W which put it about 1165 miles (1870 km) east-southeast of the Leeward Islands.  It was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.  The depression is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane while it moves toward the northern Leeward Islands.

Tropical Storm Kirk Forms South of the Cabo Verde Islands

Tropical Storm Kirk formed south of the Cabo Verde Islands on Saturday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located at latitude 8.3°N and longitude 23.6°W which put it about 450 miles (730 km) south of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Kirk was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Kirk is large and not well organized.  There is a low level center of circulation, but there are not many thunderstorms near the center.  There were thunderstorms in a cluster west of the center and more thunderstorms were in another cluster east of the center.  Some of the thunderstorms appeared to be organizing into bands, but the bands were not well developed.

Tropical Storm Kirk will move through an environment during the next day or two that should be favorable for intensification.  Kirk will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and the wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Kirk is likely to become more organized during the next 24 to 48 hours.  It will move into a region in a couple of days where the lower level easterly winds will be stronger vertical wind shear could increase.

Tropical Storm Kirk will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Kirk toward the west at a fairly quick pace.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Kirk could approach the Lesser Antilles by late next week.

Elsewhere over the tropical Atlantic, Tropical Depression Eleven moved slowly toward the Windward Islands.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located at latitude 13.2°N and longitude 53.8°W which put it about 485 miles (780 km) east of the Windward Islands.  It was moving toward the west at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.