Tag Archives: St. Barthelemy

Tropical Storm Jerry Drops Heavy Rain on Northern Leeward Islands

Although it was not very well organized, bands in the southeastern part of Tropical Storm Jerry dropped heavy rain on some of the Northern Leeward Islands on Friday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located at latitude 19.8°N and longitude 63.3°W which put the center about 110 miles (175 km) north of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Jerry was moving toward the northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for St. Barthelemy, St. Martin, and Sint Maarten.

Tropical Storm Jerry weakened on Thursday night.  The circulation around Jerry was not very well organized on Friday morning.  Strong easterly winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere continued to push the bottom part of Tropical Storm Jerry to the northwest of the middle and upper level circulations.  Bands near the center of the low level circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The bands in the western and northern sides of Jerry’s circulation also consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southeastern part of Tropical Storm Jerry.  Some of those thunderstorms were dropping heavy rain on the Northern Leeward Islands.

The strongest winds were occurring in the bands of thunderstorms in the southeastern part of Tropical Storm Jerry.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) in the eastern side of Jerry’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Tropical Storm Jerry.  The winds in the southwestern quadrant of Jerry were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Jerry will move through an environment that will be mostly unfavorable for development during the next 24 hours.  Jerry will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level low that is north of Puerto Rico.  The upper level low will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Jerry’s circulation.  Since strong easterly winds are blowing in the lower levels of the atmosphere, there will continue to be strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Jerry could weaken during the next 24 hours because of the strong vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear could decrease during the weekend, when Jerry moves into a region where the winds in the lower level will blow from the south.

Tropical Storm Jerry will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Jerry toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Jerry will move away from the Northern Leeward Islands on Friday.

Tropical Storm Jerry will continue to drop heavy rain on some of the Northern Leeward Islands on Friday.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Subtropical Storm Karen formed at the center of an occluded extratropical cyclone north of the Azores.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located at latitude 45.3°N and longitude 32.1°W which put the center about 570 miles (915 km) north-northwest of the Azores.  Karen was moving toward the northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Storm Jerry Nears Northern Leeward Islands

Tropical Storm Jerry neared the Northern Leeward Islands on Thursday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 60.6°W which put the center about 175 miles (285 km) east-southeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Jerry was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for Anguilla, Barbuda, St. Barthelemy, St. Martin, Sint Maarten, and Guadeloupe.

Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for Antigua, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Saba, and St. Eustatius.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Jerry was still not well organized on Thursday afternoon.  Strong easterly winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere continued to push the bottom part of Tropical Storm Jerry to the northwest of the middle and upper level circulations.  Bands near the center of the low level circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The bands in the western and northern sides of Jerry’s circulation also consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southeastern part of Tropical Storm Jerry.

The strongest winds were occurring in the bands of thunderstorms in the southeastern part of Tropical Storm Jerry.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) in the eastern side of Jerry’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Tropical Storm Jerry.  The winds in the southwestern quadrant of Jerry were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Jerry will move through an environment that will be mostly unfavorable for development during the next 24 hours.  Jerry will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level low that is north of Puerto Rico.  The upper level low will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Jerry’s circulation.  Since strong easterly winds are blowing in the lower levels of the atmosphere, there will continue to be strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Jerry could even weaken during the next 24 hours because of the strong vertical wind shear.

Tropical Storm Jerry will move around the southwestern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Jerry toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Jerry will pass near the Northern Leeward Islands on Thursday night.

Tropical Storm Jerry will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Northern Leeward Islands.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  Since the strongest winds are in the eastern part of Tropical Storm Jerry, the strongest winds may not hit the Northern Leeward Islands.

Tropical Storm Jerry Speeds Toward Northern Leeward Islands

Tropical Storm Jerry was speeding toward the Northern Leeward Islands on Wednesday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located at latitude 14.8°N and longitude 54.7°W which put the center about 605 miles (970 km) east-southeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Jerry was moving toward the west-northwest at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Barthelemy, St, Kitts, Nevis, St. Martin, Sint Maarten, Montserrat, and Guadeloupe.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Jerry was not well organized on Wednesday afternoon.  Strong easterly winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere pushed the bottom part of Tropical Storm Jerry to the west of the middle and upper level circulations.  Bands near the center of the low level circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The bands in the western side of Jerry’s circulation also consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms were still developing in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Jerry.

The strongest winds were occurring in the bands of thunderstorms in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Jerry.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) in the eastern side of Jerry’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Tropical Storm Jerry.  The winds in the southwestern quadrant of Jerry were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Jerry will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for development during the next 24 hours.  Jerry will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Jerry’s circulation.  However, the stronger easterly winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will continue to cause vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Jerry could intensify during the next 24 hours if the winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere weaken.

Tropical Storm Jerry will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Jerry quickly toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Jerry will approach the Northern Leeward Islands on Thursday afternoon.

Tropical Storm Jerry is likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Northern Leeward Islands on Thursday night and Friday.

Hurricane Erin Rapidly Intensifies to Cat. 5

Hurricane Erin rapidly intensified to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Saturday morning.   At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Erin was located at latitude 19.7°N and longitude 62.8°W which put the center about 105 miles (165 km) north of Anguilla.    Erin was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 917 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for  St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, and Sint Maarten.

Hurricane Erin rapidly intensified to a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Saturday morning.  A small circular eye with a diameter of 6 miles (10 km) was at the center of Erin’s circulation.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds winds occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Erin.  Storms near the center of Erin generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Hurricane Erin is small.  Winds to hurricane force extend out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Erin’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out 140 miles (220 km) in the northern side of Hurricane Erin.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out 60 miles in the southern half of Erin’s circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) is 35.0. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 9.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 44.2. Hurricane Erin is similar in intensity to Hurricane Michael in 2018.  Erin is smaller than Michael was.

Hurricane Erin will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Erin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Erin is likely to continue to intensify during the next few hours.  However, it is likely that the inner end of a rainband will wrap around the existing eye and eyewall.  That would create concentric eyewalls.  It would also start an eyewall replacement cycle.  An eyewall replacement cycle would cause Hurricane Erin to weaken, at least temporarily.

Hurricane Erin will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Erin toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Storm Erin will pass north of the Puerto Rico on Saturday night.

Bands in the southern side of Hurricane Erin are likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Northern Leeward Islands and to the Virgin Islands.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  Bands feeding into the southern side of Hurricane Erin could also drop heavy rain on Puerto Rico.

A Flood Watch is in effect for Puerto Rico.

Hurricane Erin Rapidly Intensifies to Cat. 4

Hurricane Erin rapidly intensified to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Saturday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Erin was located at latitude 19.6°N and longitude 62.0°W which put the center about 120 miles (195 km) northeast of Anguilla.   Erin was moving toward the west-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 935 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for  St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, and Sint Maarten.

Hurricane Erin rapidly intensified to a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale early on Saturday morning.  A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Erin’s circulation.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds winds occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Erin.  Storms near the center of Erin generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Hurricane Erin is small.  Winds to hurricane force extend out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Erin’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out 130 miles (210 km) in the northern side of Hurricane Erin.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out 60 miles in the southern half of Erin’s circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) is 29.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 8.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 38.3.  Hurricane Erin is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Charley in 2004.

Hurricane Erin will move through an environment that will be very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Erin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Erin will intensity during the next 24 hours.  Erin could strengthen to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Hurricane Erin will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Erin toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Storm Erin will pass north of the Puerto Rico on Sunday.

Bands in the southern side of Hurricane Erin are likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Northern Leeward Islands.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  Bands feeding into the southern side of Hurricane Erin could also drop heavy rain on Puerto Rico.

A Flood Watch is in effect for Puerto Rico.

Erin Strengthens to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Erin strengthened to a hurricane east of the Northern Leeward Islands on Friday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Erin was located at latitude 18.2°N and longitude 56.1°W which put the center about 460 miles (740 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Erin was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for Anguilla, Barbuda, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten.

Former Tropical Storm Erin strengthened to a hurricane east of the Northern Leeward Islands on Friday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Erin’s circulation.  A small eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) formed at the center of Hurricane Erin.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Erin’s circulation.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that was pumping mass away from the hurricane.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northeastern part of Hurricane Erin.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Erin’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Hurricane Erin.

Hurricane Erin will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Erin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Erin’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east, but winds will be stronger in the upper troposphere.  So, there will be some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will slightly inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Hurricane Erin will intensity during the next 24 hours.  Erin is likely to strengthen to a major hurricane during the weekend.

Hurricane Erin will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Erin toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Storm Erin will pass north of the Northern Leeward Islands on Saturday.

Bands in the southern side of Hurricane Erin are likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Northern Leeward Islands.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  Bands feeding into the southern side of Hurricane Erin could also drop heavy rain on Puerto Rico.

A Flood Watch is in effect for Puerto Rico.

Erin Prompts Tropical Storm Watches for Northern Leeward Islands

The potential risk posed by Tropical Storm Erin prompted the issuance of Tropical Storm Watches for the Northern Leeward Islands on Thursday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Erin was located at latitude 16.7°N and longitude 51.2°W which put the center about 790 miles (1270 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Erin was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for Anguilla, Barbuda, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten.

Tropical Storm Erin continued to strengthen gradually on Thursday.  Even though Tropical Storm Erin was strengthening, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring mainly in bands in the western side of Erin’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Erin consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Erin generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease slowly.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Erin is small,  Winds to tropical storm force extend out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Erin’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Erin will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Erin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Erin’s circulation.  The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east, but winds will be stronger in the upper troposphere.  So, there will be some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Erin will intensity during the next 24 hours.  Erin is likely to strengthen to a hurricane on Friday.

Tropical Storm Erin will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Erin toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Erin will move toward the Northern Leeward Islands.  Erin could approach the Northern Leeward Islands on Friday night.

Tropical Storm Erin is likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Northern Leeward Islands.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Ernesto Brings Wind and Rain to the Leeward Islands

Tropical Storm Ernesto brought wind and rain to the Leeward Islands on Tuesday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 61.9°W which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) northwest of Guadeloupe.  Ernesto was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Guadeloupe, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, St, Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Saba, St. Eustatius, Sint Maarten, the British Virgin Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto on Tuesday morning.  Those thunderstorms generated more upper level divergence that removed mass from the tropical storm.  The removal of more mass cause the surface pressure to decrease.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Ernesto’s circulation

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Tropical Storm Ernesto.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northern side of Ernesto’s circulation.  The winds in the southern part of Ernesto were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Ernesto will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ernesto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the subtropical Atlantic Ocean.  The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ernesto’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Ernesto will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Ernesto will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical wave quickly toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Ernesto will reach Puerto Rico on Tuesday night.

Tropical Storm Ernesto will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Leeward Islands, the British Virgin Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  The winds could be strong enough to cause localized outages of electricity.  Ernesto could also cause a storm surge of up to 4 feet (1 meter).

 

 

Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms East of the Leeward Islands

Tropical Storm Ernesto formed east of the Leeward Islands on Monday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 57.5°W which put the center about 295 miles (475 km) east-southeast of Antigua.  Ernesto was moving toward the west-northwest at 28 m.p.h. (44 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Guadeloupe, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, St, Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Saba, St. Eustatius, Sint Maarten, the British Virgin Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a distinct low level center of circulation in a tropical wave previously designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Ernesto.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms began to revolve around the center of Ernesto’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Ernesto started to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

The reconnaissance plane also found that tropical storm force winds extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Ernesto.  The winds in the other parts of Ernesto’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Ernesto will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ernesto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the subtropical Atlantic Ocean.  The ridge will produce strong easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical wave.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear is not enough to stop intensification. Tropical Storm Ernesto is likely to intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Ernesto will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical wave quickly toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, ‘Tropical Storm Ernesto could reach the Leeward Islands early on Tuesday.  Ernesto could be near Puerto Rico on Tuesday night.

Tropical Storm Ernesto will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Leeward Islands, the British Virgin Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  The winds could be strong enough to cause localized outages of electricity.  Ernesto could also cause a storm surge of up to 4 feet (1 meter).

 

Tropical Storm Warnings Issued for Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico

The potential risk posed by a tropical wave currently designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Five prompted the issuance of Tropical Storm Warnings for the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico on Monday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 55.6°W which put the center about 435 miles (700 km) east-southeast of Antigua.  The tropical wave was moving toward the west at 26 m.p.h. (43 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Guadeloupe, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, St, Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Saba, St. Eustatius, Sint Maarten, the British Virgin Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques.

A tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles that is currently designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Five exhibited more organization on Monday morning.  However, a NOAA aircraft investigating the tropical wave did not find a well defined low level center of circulation.  More thunderstorms formed near the axis of the tropical wave.  A large counterclockwise rotation associated with the tropical wave strengthened a little on Monday morning.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms appeared to be forming in parts of the tropical wave.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five will move through an environment somewhat favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  The tropical wave will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the subtropical Atlantic Ocean.  The ridge will produce strong easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical wave.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will slow the organization of the tropical wave into a tropical cyclone.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is likely to organize gradually into a tropical depression or a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical wave quickly toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five could approach the Leeward Islands on Monday night.  It could be near Puerto Rico on Tuesday night.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five could be a tropical storm when it reaches the Leeward Islands.  It will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Leeward Islands, the British Virgin Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  The winds could be strong enough to cause localized outages of electricity.