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Tropical Storm Ernesto Brings Wind and Rain to the Leeward Islands

Tropical Storm Ernesto brought wind and rain to the Leeward Islands on Tuesday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 61.9°W which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) northwest of Guadeloupe. Ernesto was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Guadeloupe, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, St, Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Saba, St. Eustatius, Sint Maarten, the British Virgin Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto on Tuesday morning. Those thunderstorms generated more upper level divergence that removed mass from the tropical storm. The removal of more mass cause the surface pressure to decrease. More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Ernesto’s circulation

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Tropical Storm Ernesto. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northern side of Ernesto’s circulation. The winds in the southern part of Ernesto were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Ernesto will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ernesto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the subtropical Atlantic Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ernesto’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Storm Ernesto will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Ernesto will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the tropical wave quickly toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Ernesto will reach Puerto Rico on Tuesday night.

Tropical Storm Ernesto will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Leeward Islands, the British Virgin Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. The winds could be strong enough to cause localized outages of electricity. Ernesto could also cause a storm surge of up to 4 feet (1 meter).

Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms East of the Leeward Islands

Tropical Storm Ernesto formed east of the Leeward Islands on Monday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 57.5°W which put the center about 295 miles (475 km) east-southeast of Antigua. Ernesto was moving toward the west-northwest at 28 m.p.h. (44 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a distinct low level center of circulation in a tropical wave previously designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Ernesto.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto. Bands of showers and thunderstorms began to revolve around the center of Ernesto’s circulation. Storms near the center of Ernesto started to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

The reconnaissance plane also found that tropical storm force winds extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Ernesto. The winds in the other parts of Ernesto’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Ernesto will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ernesto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the subtropical Atlantic Ocean. The ridge will produce strong easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical wave. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear is not enough to stop intensification. Tropical Storm Ernesto is likely to intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Ernesto will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the tropical wave quickly toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, ‘Tropical Storm Ernesto could reach the Leeward Islands early on Tuesday. Ernesto could be near Puerto Rico on Tuesday night.

Tropical Storm Warnings Issued for Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico

The potential risk posed by a tropical wave currently designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Five prompted the issuance of Tropical Storm Warnings for the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 55.6°W which put the center about 435 miles (700 km) east-southeast of Antigua. The tropical wave was moving toward the west at 26 m.p.h. (43 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

A tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles that is currently designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Five exhibited more organization on Monday morning. However, a NOAA aircraft investigating the tropical wave did not find a well defined low level center of circulation. More thunderstorms formed near the axis of the tropical wave. A large counterclockwise rotation associated with the tropical wave strengthened a little on Monday morning. Bands of showers and thunderstorms appeared to be forming in parts of the tropical wave.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five will move through an environment somewhat favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. The tropical wave will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the subtropical Atlantic Ocean. The ridge will produce strong easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical wave. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will slow the organization of the tropical wave into a tropical cyclone. Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is likely to organize gradually into a tropical depression or a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the tropical wave quickly toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five could approach the Leeward Islands on Monday night. It could be near Puerto Rico on Tuesday night.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five could be a tropical storm when it reaches the Leeward Islands. It will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Leeward Islands, the British Virgin Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. The winds could be strong enough to cause localized outages of electricity.

Tropical Storm Watches Issued for Leeward Islands

The potential threat posed by a tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles prompted the issuance of Tropical Storm Watches for the Leeward Islands on Sunday afternoon. The U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the tropical wave as Potential Tropical Cyclone Five for the purpose of issuing the Tropical Storm Watches. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five was located at latitude 13.6°N and longitude 48.0°W which put the center about 950 miles (1530 km) east-southeast of Antigua. The tropical wave was moving toward the west-northwest at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Guadeloupe, St. Martin, St, Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla, Saba and St. Eustatius, and Sin Maarten.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center designated a tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles as Potential Tropical Cyclone Five on Sunday afternoon. There was not a well defined low level center of circulation in the tropical wave. There was a large counterclockwise rotation associated with the tropical wave, but the rotation did not have an identifiable center. Thunderstorms were forming in clusters scattered within the tropical wave.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five will move through an environment somewhat favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next 36 hours. The tropical wave will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the subtropical Atlantic Ocean. The ridge will produce strong easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical wave. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will slow the organization of the tropical wave into a tropical cyclone. Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is likely to organize gradually into a tropical depression or a tropical storm during the next 36 hours.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the tropical wave quickly toward the west-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five could approach the Leeward Islands on Monday night.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five could be a tropical storm when it reaches the Leeward Islands. It will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Leeward Islands. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Tammy Passes Over Barbuda

Hurricane Tammy passed over Barbuda on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Tammy was located at latitude 17.8°N and longitude 61.9°W which put it about 15 miles (25 km) north-northwest of Barbuda. Tammy was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Anguilla, Barbuda, St. Maarten, St, Martin, and St. Barthelemy. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Saba and St. Eustatius.

The center of Hurricane Tammy passed directly over Barbuda on Saturday evening. Tammy produced strong gusty winds and heavy rain in Barbuda. Heavy rain was likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Tammy showed signs of weakening a little on Saturday night. Breaks appeared in the ring of thunderstorms around the center Tammy’s circulation. The distribution of thunderstorms became more asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern and northern parts of Hurricane Tammy. Bands in the southern and western parts of Tammy’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Tammy’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Hurricane Tammy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 12.7. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 21.0. Hurricane Tammy was capable of causing localized minor damage.

Hurricane Tammy will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Tammy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the northeastern part of an upper level low over the Eastern Caribbean Sea. The upper level low will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tammy’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. The wind shear could be strong enough to cause Hurricane Tammy to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Tammy will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Tammy toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Tammy will move north of the Leeward Islands on Sunday.

Hurricane Tammy will continue to produce strong winds and heavy rain in Barbuda during the next few hours. The weather conditions will start to improve in Barbuda when Tammy moves north of the Leeward Islands on Sunday. Hurricane Tammy could also bring gusty winds to Anguilla, St. Maarten, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy on Sunday.

Tammy Strengthens to a Hurricane East of the Lesser Antilles

Former Tropical Storm Tammy strengthened to a hurricane east of the Lesser Antilles on Friday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Tammy was located at latitude 14.1°N and longitude 58.6°W which put it about 165 miles (265 km) east-southeast of Martinique. Tammy was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Guadeloupe, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis. Hurricane Watches were in effect for Anguilla, St. Maarten, St. Martin, and St. Baarthelemy. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Dominica, Anguilla, St. Maarten, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, Saba and St. Eustatius. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Martinique and Barbados.

U.S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA planes flying in former Tropical Storm Tammy found that Tammy had intensified to a hurricane on Friday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 14 miles (22 km) formed at the center of Hurricane Tammy. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Tammy. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease on Friday morning.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Hurricane Tammy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) in the eastern side of Tammy’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the western side of the circulation.

Hurricane Tammy will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Tammy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the far eastern part of an upper level low over the Eastern Caribbean Sea. The upper level low will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tammy’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but it will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Hurricane Tammy is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Tammy will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Tammy toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Tammy could be near Guadeloupe on Saturday morning.

Hurricane Tammy is likely to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the central and northern Leeward Islands. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash in some locations. Hurricane Tammy could cause a storm surge of up to seven feet (two meters) along the coasts of some of the islands.

Tropical Storm Fiona Brings Wind and Rain to the Leeward Islands

Tropical Storm Fiona brought wind and rain to the Leeward Islands on Friday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 62.2°W which put it about 55 miles (90 km) west-northwest of Guadeloupe. Fiona was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Anguilla, Guadeloupe, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy, Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, the U.S. Virgin Islands, the British Virgin Islands and the portion of the coast from Cabo Caucedo to Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Dominica and for the portion of the coast from Cabo Caucedo to Barahona, Dominican Republic.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of Tropical Storm Fiona on Friday night which caused Fiona to strengthen. Although there were more thunderstorms near the center of circulation, most of the thunderstorms were still occurring in bands on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Fiona. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The new thunderstorms near the center of Fiona generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and east of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Fiona.

Tropical Storm Fiona will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Fiona will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. An upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Fiona. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Fiona could continue to strengthen gradually, but the wind shear will limit intensification during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Fiona will move around the southern side of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fiona toward the west-northwest during the next 36 hours. Tropical Storm Fiona will continue to cause gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the northern Leeward Islands during the next 12 hours. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Fiona could be southeast of Puerto Rico by Saturday evening. Fiona could be near the eastern end of the Dominican Republic by Sunday evening. There is a chance that Fiona could be a hurricane by that time.

Tropical Storm Fiona Approaches the Leeward Islands

Tropical Storm Fiona approached the Leeward Islands on Friday afternoon. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 60.3°W which put it about 75 miles (120 km) east of Guadeloupe. Fiona was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Anguilla, Guadeloupe, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy, Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and the British Virgin Islands. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Dominica and the portion of the coast from Cabo Engano to Cabo Frances Viejo, Dominican Republic.

Tropical Storm Fiona was nearing the Leeward Islands on Friday afternoon. The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Fiona continued to be asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Fiona’s circulation. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Tropical Storm Fiona was moving under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The ridge was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Fiona’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Fiona.

Tropical Storm Fiona will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Fiona will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, the upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean will continue to cause vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Fiona could strengthen a little, but the wind shear will limit intensification during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Fiona will move around the southern side of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fiona toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Fiona will move over the Leeward Islands on Friday evening. Fiona will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the northern Leeward Islands. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Storm Fiona could be southeast of Puerto Rico by Saturday evening.

Tropical Storm Fiona Prompts Watch for Puerto Rico

The potential effects of Tropical Storm Fiona prompted the issuance of Tropical Storm Watches for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Thursday afternoon. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the northern Leeward Islands. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located at latitude 16.3°N and longitude 55.4°W which put it about 425 miles (685 km) east of the Leeward Islands. Fiona was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Anguilla, Guadeloupe, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and the British Virgin Islands.

Tropical Storm Fiona continued to be affected by strong vertical wind shear on Thursday afternoon. The center of Fiona was surrounded by a swirl of showers and lower clouds. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern edge of Fiona’s circulation. Tropical Storm Fiona was under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The upper level ridge was producing westerly winds that were blowing across the top of Fiona’s circulation. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear and the wind shear was blowing the tops off of many of the thunderstorms that start to develop. The vertical wind shear was causing the low level circulation around Tropical Storm Fiona to look a little less organized. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Fiona’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Fiona will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Fiona will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, the upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean will continue to cause vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Fiona could weaken if the upper level winds get stronger. The upper level winds could be weaker when Fiona moves over the northeastern Caribbean Sea during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Fiona will move around the southern side of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fiona toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Fiona could approach the Leeward Islands on Friday afternoon. Fiona could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the northern Leeward Islands. Tropical Storm Fiona could be southeast of Puerto Rico by Saturday evening.

Tropical Storm Fiona Prompts Warnings for Leeward Islands

A potential threat posed by Tropical Storm Fiona prompted the issuance of Tropical Storm Warnings for some of the Leeward Islands. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 54.3°W which put it about 495 miles (800 km) east of the Leeward Islands. Fiona was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat and Anguilla. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Guadeloupe, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy.

Tropical Storm Fiona was being affected by strong vertical wind shear on Thursday morning. The center of Fiona was surrounded by a swirl of showers and lower clouds. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern edge of Fiona’s circulation. Tropical Storm Fiona was under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The upper level ridge was producing westerly winds that were blowing across the top of Fiona’s circulation. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear and the wind shear was blowing the tops off of many of the thunderstorms that start to develop. In spite of the vertical wind shear, the low level circulation around Tropical Storm Fiona was still well organized. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Fiona’s circulation.