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Hurricane Ernesto Becomes an Extratropical Cyclone

Hurricane Ernesto made a transition to an extratropical cyclone east of Newfoundland on Tuesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of former Hurricane Ernesto was located at latitude 49.0°N and longitude 44.7°W which put the center about 420 miles (675 km) east-northeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland.  Ernesto was moving toward the northeast at 37 m.p.h. (59 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Former Hurricane Ernesto made a transition to an extratropical cyclone over the Atlantic Ocean east of Newfoundland.  Ernesto moved over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 14°C.  It moved under strong upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes.  Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear.  The colder water and the strong vertical wind shear caused the structure of former Hurricane Ernesto to change to that of a strong extratropical cyclone.

The circulation around former Hurricane Ernesto was large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 230 miles (370 km) from the center of Ernesto’s circulation.

The westerly winds in the middle latitudes will steer former Hurricane Ernesto toward the east-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Ernesto will pass south of Iceland on Wednesday.

Hurricane Ernesto Speeds Toward Southeastern Newfoundland

Hurricane Ernesto sped to southeastern Newfoundland on Monday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located at latitude 43.6°N and longitude 56.1°W which put the center about 250 miles (400 km) southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland.  Ernesto was moving toward the northeast at 26 m.p.h. (43 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

Hurricane Ernesto strengthened as it sped over the Gulf Stream toward southeastern Newfoundland on Monday afternoon.  A small circular eye was at the center of Ernesto’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Ernesto’s circulation.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Ernesto was still exhibiting the characteristics of a tropical cyclone.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the eastern side of Ernesto’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 220 miles (350 km) from the center of Hurricane Ernesto.

Hurricane Ernesto will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Ernesto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 17°C.  It will move under the eastern portion of an upper level trough over the northeastern U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ernesto’s circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  The colder water and strong wind shear will cause Hurricane Ernesto to weaken during the next 24 hours.  The colder water and vertical wind shear will also cause Hurricane Ernesto to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough over the northeastern U.S. will steer Hurricane Ernesto toward the east- northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated path, Ernesto will pass far to the south of pass near southeastern Newfoundland on Monday night.  Ernesto will move south of Greenland on Tuesday.

The circulation around the northern side of Hurricane Ernesto could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to southeastern Newfoundland.

Hurricane Ernesto Moves Toward Southeastern Newfoundland

Hurricane Ernesto moved toward southeastern Newfoundland on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located at latitude 37.9°N and longitude 62.3°W which put the center about 815 miles (1310 km) southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland.  Ernesto was moving toward the north-northeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

After briefly weakening to a tropical storm north of Bermuda on Saturday night, Ernesto strengthened back to a hurricane on Sunday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped back around the center of Hurricane Ernesto.  A circular eye was visible again at the center of Ernesto’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorm and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Thunderstorms also developed in the rainbands revolving around the center of Hurricane Ernesto.  Storms near the center of Ernesto generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the hurricane.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Ernesto was a little smaller on Sunday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the southeastern quadrant of Ernesto’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 220 miles (355 km) from the center of Hurricane Ernesto.

Hurricane Ernesto will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ernesto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the eastern portion of an upper level trough over the Great Lakes.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ernesto’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to stop intensification.  Hurricane Ernesto is likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours.  Ernesto will move over colder water on Monday night.  The colder water and vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Ernesto to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough over the Great Lakes will steer Hurricane Ernesto toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated path, Ernesto will pass far to the south of Nova Scotia on Sunday night.  Hurricane Ernesto will be near southeastern Newfoundland on Monday night.

 

Tropical Storm Ernesto Moves Away from Bermuda

Tropical Storm Ernesto moved away from Bermuda on Saturday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located at latitude 33.9°N and longitude 63.3°W which put the center about 140miles (220 km) northeast of Bermuda.  Ernesto was moving toward the north-northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

Former Hurricane Ernesto weakened to a tropical storm on Saturday evening.  Drier air wrapped all of the way around Ernesto’s circulation.  The drier air caused many of the remaining thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Ernesto to dissipate.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in the northern portion of the former eyewall.  The remnant of former Hurricane Ernesto’s large eye was also visible on satellite imagery.  The bands revolving around the center of Ernesto’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Ernesto was large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 230 miles (370 km) from the center of Ernesto’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Ernesto will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ernesto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern portion of an upper level trough off the east coast of the U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ernesto’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will be less on Sunday.  The wind shear and the drier air In Ernesto’s circulation will inhibit intensification.  However, Tropical Storm Ernesto could strengthen a little during the next 24 hours even with the vertical wind shear and drier air.

Tropical Storm Ernesto will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Ernesto toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours.  An upper level trough over the Great Lakes will steer Ernesto toward the northeast more quickly on Monday.  Tropical Storm Ernesto could approach southeastern Newfoundland on Monday night.

Hurricane Ernesto Hits Bermuda

Hurricane Ernesto hit Bermuda early on Saturday.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located at latitude 32.6°N and longitude 64.6°W which put the center about 15 miles (25 km) north-northeast of Bermuda.    Ernesto was moving toward the north-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).   The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).   The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

The center of Hurricane Ernesto passed over Bermuda early on Saturday.  A weather station at the L.F. Wade International airport reported a sustained wind speed of 61 m.p.h. (98 km/h) and a wind gust of 84 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  There were reports of widespread electricity outages in Bermuda.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Ernesto was large when Ernesto moved over Bermuda.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Ernesto’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 240 miles (390 km) from the center of Hurricane Ernesto.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 12.7.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 22.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 35.0.  Hurricane Ernesto was similar in intensity to Hurricane Irene when Irene hit North Carolina in 2011.  Ernesto was not quite as large as Irene was.

Drier air was pulled around the southern side of Hurricane Ernesto as it approached Bermuda.  The drier air caused many of the thunderstorms in the western and southern parts of Ernesto’s circulation to weaken.  Bands in the western and southern sides of Hurricane Ernesto consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the eastern and northern parts of Ernesto.  Storms near the center of Ernesto’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the hurricane.

Hurricane Ernesto will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ernesto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern portion of an upper level trough off the east coast of the U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ernesto’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The drier air In Ernesto’s circulation will inhibit intensification.  Hurricane Ernesto is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Ernesto will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Ernesto toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Ernesto will move away from Bermuda on Saturday.  An upper level trough over the Great Lakes will steer Ernesto toward the northeast more quickly on Sunday.  Hurricane Ernesto could approach Newfoundland on Monday night.

The wind speeds will diminish in Bermuda as Hurricane Ernesto moves farther away on Saturday.

 

 

Hurricane Ernesto Approaches Bermuda

Hurricane Ernesto was approaching Bermuda on Friday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located at latitude 30.6°N and longitude 65.6°W which put the center about 125 miles (200 km) south-southwest of Bermuda.   Ernesto was moving toward the northeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).   The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).   The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

A circular eye with a diameter of 60 miles (95 km) was present at the center of Ernesto’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Ernesto’s circulation.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was balanced by the inflow of mass in the lower levels.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Ernesto was large.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Ernesto’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 275 miles (445 km) from the center of Hurricane Ernesto.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 24.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 41.3.  Hurricane Ernesto is similar in size to Hurricane Gustav when Gustav hit Louisiana in 2008.  Ernesto is not quite as strong as Gustav  was.

Hurricane Ernesto will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ernesto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern portion of an upper level trough off the east coast of the U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ernesto’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification but Hurricane Ernesto is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Ernesto will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Ernesto toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Ernesto will move near Bermuda early on Saturday morning.

Hurricane Ernesto will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Bermuda.  The strong winds will be capable of causing serious damage.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods.

 

Hurricane Ernesto Intensifies to Cat. 2

Hurricane Ernesto intensified to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Thursday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located at latitude 27.1°N and longitude 68.1°W which put the center about 410 miles (660 km) south-southwest of Bermuda.  Ernesto was moving toward the north-northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Hurricane Ernesto has strengthened to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Thursday evening.  A circular eye with a diameter of 45 miles (75 km) was present at the center of Ernesto’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Ernesto’s circulation.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Ernesto increased on Thursday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Ernesto’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 260 miles (420 km) from the center of Hurricane Ernesto.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 33.2.  Hurricane Ernesto was similar in intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.  Ernesto is larger than Idalia was.

Hurricane Ernesto will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ernesto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Ernesto is likely to continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Ernesto will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Ernesto toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Ernesto will approach Bermuda on Friday night.  The center of Ernesto will be near Bermuda on Saturday morning.

Hurricane Ernesto will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Bermuda.  The strong winds will be capable of causing serious damage.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods.

 

Hurricane Ernesto Churns Toward Bermuda

Hurricane Ernesto churned toward Bermuda on Thursday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located at latitude 25.4°N and longitude 69.3°W which put the center about 550 miles (885 km) south-southwest of Bermuda.  Ernesto was moving toward the north at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

Hurricane Ernesto continued to strengthen gradually on Thursday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Ernesto’s circulation several times.  However, dry air spiraled into the center of Hurricane Ernesto each time and an eyewall failed to form.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Ernesto’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Ernesto generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease gradually.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Ernesto increased on Thursday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Ernesto’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Ernesto’s circulation.

Hurricane Ernesto will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ernesto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Ernesto will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Ernesto will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Ernesto toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Ernesto will approach Bermuda on Friday night.

 

Ernesto Prompts Hurricane Watch for Bermuda

The risk posed by Hurricane Ernesto prompted the issuance of a Hurricane Watch for Bermuda.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located at latitude 23.0°N and longitude 68.9°W which put the center about 690 miles (1110 km) south-southwest of Bermuda.  Ernesto was moving toward the north-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for Bermuda.

Hurricane Ernesto continued to strengthen gradually on Wednesday evening.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Ernesto’s circulation.  A circular eye appeared intermittently on satellite images.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Hurricane Ernesto.  Storms near the center of Ernesto generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the eastern side of Hurricane Ernesto.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Ernesto’s circulation.

Hurricane Ernesto will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ernesto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Ernesto will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Ernesto will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Ernesto toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Ernesto will approach Bermuda on Friday night.

 

Ernesto Strengthens to a Hurricane Northwest of Puerto Rico

Former Tropical Storm Ernesto strengthened to a hurricane northwest of Puerto Rico on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located at latitude 20.5°N and longitude 70.6°W which put the center about 175 miles (285 km) northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico.  Ernesto was moving toward the northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the British Virgin Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Culebra and Vieques.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that formed Tropical Storm Ernesto had strengthened to a hurricane northwest of Puerto Rico on Wednesday morning.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Ernesto’s circulation.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Hurricane Ernesto.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Ernesto.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Hurricane Ernesto.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 230 miles (370 km) from the center of Ernesto’s circulation.

Hurricane Ernesto will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ernesto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level  winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Ernesto will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Ernesto will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Ernesto toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Ernesto will move away from Puerto Rico.  Ernesto could approach Bermuda on Friday night.