Tag Archives: Cape Hatteras

Hurricane Erin Moves Southeast of Cape Hatteras

Hurricane Erin moved southeast of Cape Hatteras on Wednesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Erin was located at latitude 32.8°N and longitude 73.1°W which put the center about 215 miles (345 km) southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Erin was moving toward the north-northeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 942 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Bermuda.

Concentric eyewalls formed again in Hurricane Erin on Wednesday.  The inner eyewall had a radius of 17 miles (28 km).  The outer eyewall had a radius of 75 miles (120 km).  The strongest winds were occurring in the outer eyewall.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the concentric eyewalls.  Storms near the center of Erin generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large quantities of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease on Wednesday.

The circulation around Hurricane Erin was very large.  Winds to hurricane force extend out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Erin’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out 265 miles (425 km) from the center of Hurricane Erin.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Erin is 19.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 33.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 52.2.  Hurricane Erin is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Ike when Ike hit Texas in 2008.

Hurricane Erin will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Erin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the Northeast U.S. and the Great Lakes.  The upper level trough will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Erin’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase on Thursday.  Hurricane Erin will start to weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.

The upper level trough over the Northeast U.S. and the Great Lakes will steer Hurricane Erin toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Erin will be move away from Cape Hatteras on Thursday.  Erin will pass far to the south of Long Island on Thursday.

The large circulation around Hurricane Erin will produce large waves that will move toward the east coast of the U.S.  Erin could cause a storm surge of up to four feet (one meter) along the Outer Banks of North Carolina.  Mandatory evacuations have been ordered for Hatteras Island and Ocracoke Island.  Water is already washing over parts of Hatteras Island.  The large waves are likely to cause significant beach erosion.  The large circulation around Hurricane Erin could also bring tropical storm force winds to the Outer Banks.  Conditions along the Outer Banks should start to improve on Friday when Hurricane Erin moves farther away.

Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Warnings Issued for Outer Banks

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Storm Surge Warning were issued for the North Carolina Outer Banks on Tuesday because of the threat posed by Hurricane Erin.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Erin was located at latitude 26.1°N and longitude 72.5°W which put the center about 655 miles (1050 km) south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Erin was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 958 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Beaufort Inlet to Duck, North Carolina.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Duck, North Carolina to Cape Charles Light, Virginia.

After weakening on Monday night, Hurricane Erin was exhibiting signs of strengthening on Tuesday afternoon.  The inner end of a rainband was wrapping around the northern side of the center of Erin’s circulation.  There was some evidence on satellite images to indicate that a new eye could be forming at the center of Hurricane Erin.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Erin’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Erin started to generate more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to start to decrease again.

The circulation around Hurricane Erin is large.  Winds to hurricane force extend out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Erin’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out 205 miles (330 km) from the center of Hurricane Erin.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Erin is 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 24.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 42.6.  Hurricane Erin is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Gustav in 2008.

Hurricane Erin will move through an environment that will be  favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Erin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Erin will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Erin could strengthen back to a major hurricane.

Hurricane Erin will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Erin toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Storm Erin will be southeast of Cape Hatteras on Wednesday night.

The large circulation around Hurricane Erin will produce large waves that will move toward the east coast of the U.S.  Erin could cause a storm surge of up to four feet (one meter) along the Outer Banks of North Carolina.  Mandatory evacuations have been ordered for Hatteras Island and Ocracoke Island.  The large waves are likely to cause significant beach erosion.  The large circulation around Hurricane Erin could also bring tropical storm force winds to the Outer Banks.

Hurricane Erin Prompts Watches for Outer Banks

The potential risks posed by Hurricane Erin prompted the issuance of a Tropical Storm Watch and a Storm Surge Watch for the North Carolina Outer Banks on Monday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Erin was located at latitude 24.0°N and longitude 71.3°W which put the center about 815 miles (1310 km) south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Erin was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 937 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Beaufort Inlet to Duck, North Carolina.  The Tropical Storm Watch includes Pamlico Sound.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Turks and Caicos.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Southeast Bahamas.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Central Bahamas.

Hurricane Erin was maintaining its intensity on Monday afternoon.  A circular eye with a diameter of 45 miles (75 km) was at the center of Erin’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Erin’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Erin were generating strong upper level divergence that was pumping mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was approximately equal to the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere/  The balance of outflow and inflow of mass caused the surface pressure to remain nearly constant.

An earlier eyewall replacement cycle increased the size of the circulation around Hurricane Erin.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Erin’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 230 miles (370 km) from the center of Hurricane Erin.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Erin is 28.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 24.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 52.7.  Hurricane Erin is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Helene in 2024.

Hurricane Erin will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Erin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, Erin will move into a region of drier air on Tuesday.  The drier air is likely to cause Hurricane Erin to start to weaken slowly.

Hurricane Erin will move around the southwestern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Erin toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Storm Erin will pass of the Bahamas on Tuesday.

The large circulation around Hurricane Erin will produce large waves that will move toward the east coast of the U.S.  Erin could cause a storm surge of up to four feet (one meter)  along the Outer Banks of North Carolina.  Mandatory evacuations have been ordered for Hatteras Island and Ocracoke Island.  The large waves could also cause significant beach erosion.  The large circulation around Hurricane Erin could also bring tropical storm force winds to the Outer Banks.

Bands in the western side of Hurricane Erin will continue to bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the Turks and Caicos and to the Southeast Bahamas until Erin moves farther away. The gusty winds and heavy rain could spread over the Central Bahamas on Tuesday.  Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Ophelia Develops South of Cape Hatteras

Tropical Storm Ophelia developed south of Cape Hatteras on Friday afternoon. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was located at latitude 32.7°N and longitude 76.0°W which put it about 185 miles (295 km) south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Ophelia was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Fear, North Carolina to Fenwick Island, Delaware. The Tropical Storm Warning included Albemarle Sound and Pamlico Sound. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center designated a low pressure system south of Cape Hatteras as Tropical Storm Ophelia on Friday afternoon. Drier air was wrapping around the southern and eastern sides of Ophelia’s circulation. The drier air was making the distribution of thunderstorms asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern and western parts of Tropical Storm Ophelia. Bands in the southern and eastern parts of Ophelia consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms north and west of the center of Ophelia’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The circulation around Tropical Storm Ophelia was large, Winds to tropical storm force extended out 275 miles (445 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Ophelia will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Ophelia will move over the Gulf Stream where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the eastern U.S. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ophelia’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. However, the flow of air in the upper levels will also provide divergence aloft that will pump mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass will cause the surface pressure to decrease. The drier air in the southern and eastern parts of Tropical Storm Ophelia will inhibit the formation of thunderstorms in those regions. Tropical Storm Ophelia could intensify during the next 12 hours, while it is over the Gulf Stream.

Tropical Storm Ophelia will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ophelia toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Ophelia will approach the coast of North Carolina on Friday night. Ophelia will bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to eastern North Carolina, eastern Virginia, southeastern Maryland and southern Delaware. NOAA buoy 41025 at Diamond Shoals, North Carolina reported a sustained wind speed of 47 m.p.h. (76 km/h) and a wind gust of 60 m.p.h. (97 km/h). A NOAA C-MAN station at Cape Lookout, North Carolina reported a sustained wind speed of 45 m.p.h. (72 km/h) and a wind gust of 53 m.p.h. (83 km/h)

Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches were in effect for eastern North Carolina, eastern Virginia, Maryland and Delaware.

Easterly winds in the northern side of Tropical Storm Ophelia will blow water toward the coast. A storm surge of up to 6 feet (1.8 meters) could occur in some locations. A Storm Surge Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia. The Storm Surge Warning included Albemarle Sound, Pamlico Sound, the Pamlico River and the Neuse River. A Storm Surge Warning was in effect for Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach, Virginia. Large waves will also cause significant beach erosion.

Low Pressure System Prompts Tropical Storm Warnings for Mid-Atlantic Coast

A low pressure system formed over the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of the southeast U.S. on Thursday morning. The U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the low pressure system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen and issued Tropical Storm Warnings for portions of the Mid-Atlantic coast. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen was located at latitude 29.0°N and longitude 75.9°W which put it about 430 miles (690 km) south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1012 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Fear, North Carolina to Fenwick Island, Delaware. The Tropical Storm Warning included Albemarle Sound and Pamlico Sound. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point.

A low pressure system formed over the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of the southeast U.S. on Thursday morning. The low pressure system formed as an extratropical cyclone. There was a large counterclockwise circulation around the low pressure system. There was not a well formed, distinct low level center of the circulation. Thunderstorms were occurring in a band that wrapped around the eastern and northern side of the low pressure systems. Fragmented bands in other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen will move through an environment favorable for intensification of an extratropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the eastern U.S. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow across the top of Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. However, the flow of air in the upper levels will also provide divergence aloft that will pump mass away from the surface low pressure system. The removal of mass will cause the surface pressure to decrease. Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours. The low pressure system could make a transition to a tropical storm later on Friday when it moves over the warmer water in the Gulf Stream.

The upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Potential Tropical Cyclone will approach the coast of North Carolina on Friday night. The low pressure system will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to eastern North Carolina, eastern Virginia, southeastern Maryland and southern Delaware. The gusty winds will blow water toward the coast. A storm surge of up to 5 feet (1.5 meters) could occur in some locations. Large waves will cause significant beach erosion. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Nigel was speeding toward the northeast as it passed southeast of Newfoundland. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Nigel was located at latitude 42.2°N and longitude 45.0°W which put it about 505 miles (815 km) southeast of Cape Race,, Newfoundland. Nigel was moving toward the northeast at 30 m.p.h. (48 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

Henri Strengthens to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Henri strengthened to a hurricane on Saturday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Henri was located at latitude 34.4°N and longitude 72.5°W which put it about 180 miles (290 km) east-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Henri was moving toward the north-northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for eastern Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor. A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from New Haven, Connecticut to Westport, Massachusetts. The Hurricane Warning included Block Island. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the south coast of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Fire Island Inlet. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the north coast of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Port Jefferson, Harbor. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from East Rockaway Inlet to New Haven, Connecticut. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect from the portion of the coast from Westport, Massachusetts to Chatham, Massachusetts. The Tropical Storm Warning included Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from East Rockaway Inlet, New York to Manasquan Inlet, New Jersey. The Tropical Storm Warning included New York City.

Reconnaissance planes found that former Tropical Storm Henri has strengthened to a hurricane on Saturday morning. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Henri and the inner end of a rainband wrapped around the north side of the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease. Winds to hurricane force extended out 60 miles in the southeastern quadrant of Henri. The winds in the other parts of the storm were blowing at less than hurricane force. Winds to tropical storm for extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Henri will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Henri will move over the Gulf Stream where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move around the eastern side of an upper level trough over the eastern U.S. The trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Henri’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Hurricane Henri is likely to strengthen during the next 12 hours. Henri will move over cooler water when it moves north of the Gulf Stream on Sunday and that will cause it to weaken.

The upper level trough will steer Hurricane Henri toward the north-northeast during the next 12 hours. The position and orientation of the trough will change as it interacts with Hurricane Henri. The trough will pull Henri toward the north-northwest on Sunday. On its anticipated track Hurricane Henri will approach Long Island on Sunday afternoon. Henri could be a hurricane when it nears Long Island. Hurricane Henri is likely to cause minor wind damage on Long Island and in southern New England. Gusty winds and falling trees could cause widespread power outages. Henri could move slowly when it moves across southern New England. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods. Hurricane Henri could cause a storm surge of up to 4 to 7 feet (1 to 2 meters) where the wind blows the water toward the coast.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Grace was dropping heavy rain over parts of central Mexico. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located at latitude 19.7°N and longitude 98.9°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) north-northeast of Mexico City, Mexico. Grace was moving toward the west-southwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Veracruz to Barra de Tordo, Mexico.

Grace Rapidly Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Grace rapidly intensified to a major hurricane near Mexico on Friday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Grace was located at latitude 20.7°N and longitude 96.3°W which put it about 75 miles (120 km) east-southeast of Tuxpan, Mexico. Grace was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Veracuz to Cabo Rojo, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo, Mexico.

Hurricane Grace rapidly intensified to a major hurricane on Friday night. A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) was at the center of Grace. The eye was surround by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Grace. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease, which produced a rapid increase in the surface wind speed.

Hurricane Grace was an average sized hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Grace. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Grace was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 33.3. Hurricane Grace was capable of regional major damage.

Hurricane Grace will move south of a high pressure system that extends over the Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Grace toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Grace will make landfall on the coast of Mexico between Tuxpan and Veracruz in a few hours. Grace will be capable of causing major wind damage. It will drop locally heavy rain and flash floods are likely. Hurricane Grace could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) where the wind blows the water toward the coast. Grace will weaken quickly when it moves inland over Mexico, but heavy rain could cause flash floods over parts of Central Mexico,

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Henri was moving toward the north off the East Coast of the U.S. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located at latitude 32.3°N and longitude 73.5°W which put it about 230 miles (375 km) south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Henri was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (85 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for eastern Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor. A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from New Haven, Connecticut to Watch Hill, Rhode Island. A Hurricane Watch was in effect from Watch Hill, Rhode Island to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts. The Hurricane Watch included Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the south coast of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Fire Island Inlet. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the north coast of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Port Jefferson, Harbor. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from East Rockaway Inlet to New Haven, Connecticut. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect from the portion of the coast from Watch Hill, Rhode Island to Wood Hole, Massachusetts. The Tropical Storm Warning included Block Island and Martha’s Vineyard. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from East Rockaway Inlet, New York to Manasquan Inlet, New Jersey. The Tropical Storm Warning included New York City.

Tropical Storm Henri Prompts Hurricane Watches for Long Island, Southeast New England

A potential threat from Tropical Storm Henri prompted the issuance of Hurricane Watches for parts of Long Island and southeastern New England on Friday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located at latitude 30.0°N and longitude 73.7°W which put it about 375 miles (600 km) southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Henri was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was issued for eastern Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor. A Hurricane Watch was also issued for the portion of the coast from New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts. The Hurricane Watch included Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the south coast of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Fire Island Inlet. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the north coast of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor. A Tropical Storm Watch was also issued for the portion of the coast from East Rockaway Inlet to New Haven, Connecticut.

Tropical Storm Henri did not change much during Thursday night. The distribution of thunderstorms around Henri remained asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Henri. Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Henri was moving under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge off the east coast of the U.S. The ridge was producing northeasterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Henri’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and they were also contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Henri.

Although Tropical Storm Henri is currently moving toward the west-northwest, an upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will turn Henri toward the north on Friday. The trough will steer Henri toward the north on Saturday. When Henri turns toward the north it will move under the axis of the upper level ridge. The upper level winds are weaker near the axis of the ridge and the wind shear will be less. Tropical Storm Henri is likely to strengthen to a hurricane on Saturday. Henri will move over the warm water in the Gulf Stream and there is a chance that Henri could strengthen to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

A high pressure system will move northeast of Henri on Sunday. The high pressure system will block Henri and prevent it from moving toward the northeast. The high pressure system will also slow the forward speed of Henri. Henri could be moving slowly when it nears Long Island and southeastern New England. A slow forward speed would increase the time period when places experience strong gusty winds, which would increase the chance for wind damage and power outages. Slow movement would also increase the total rainfall in many locations and the risk for flash floods would increase. Henri could also cause a storm surge of up to 4 to 7 feet (1 to 2 meters) along the coast.

Elsewhere, former Tropical Storm Grace strengthened back to a hurricane over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Friday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Grace was located at latitude 20.6°N and longitude 93.7°W which put it about 185 miles (300 km) east-northeast of Veracruz, Mexico. Grace was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Veracuz to Cabo Rojo, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo, Mexico.

Hurricane Grace Hits Yucatan

Hurricane Grace hit the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Grace was located at latitude 20.1°N and longitude 87.9°W which put it about 45 miles (65 km) south-southeast of Valladolid, Mexico. Grace was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cancun to Punta Herrero, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Cozumel. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo,, Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Cancun to Campeche, Mexico and from Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Rojo to Puerto de Altamira, Mexico. Tropical Storm Watches were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud and Pinar del Rio.

The center of Hurricane Grace made landfall on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula southeast of Tulum on Thursday morning. The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) at the time of landfall. Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Hurricane Grace. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of circulation. Grace will produce strong gusty winds over the Yucatan. It will also drop heavy rain and flash floods are likely to occur. Hurricane Grace will weaken gradually back to a tropical storm while it moves across the Yucatan.

Hurricane Grace will move over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday night. Grace will move into an environment favorable for intensification when it moves over the Gulf of Mexico. Grace will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move into a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Grace is likely to intensify back to a hurricane on Friday.

Hurricane Grace will move south of a subtropical high pressure system that extends over the Gulf of Mexico. The high will steer Grace toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Hurricane Grace will move across the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday. Grace will move over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday night. Hurricane Grace could approach the coast of Mexico between Veracruz and Tampico on Friday night.

Elsewhere, former Tropical Storm Fred was dropping heavy rain over parts of the northeastern U.S. and Tropical Storm Henri was moving west toward the east coast of the U.S.

At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of former Tropical Storm Fred was located at latitude 42.0°N and longitude 76.0°W which put it about 15 miles (25 km) south of Binghamton, New York. Fred was moving toward the east-northeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1011 mb. Flood Watches and Flash Flood Watches were in effect for parts of the northeastern U.S.

At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located at latitude 29.5°N and longitude 69.5°W which put it about 525 miles (845 km) southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Henri was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Tropical Depression Two Strengthens to Tropical Storm Bill

Former Tropical Depression Two strengthened to Tropical Storm Bill east-northeast of Cape Hatteras on Monday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Bill was located at latitude 36.7°N and longitude 69.8°W which put it about 335 miles (540 km) east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Bill was moving toward the northeast at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression Two intensified on Monday night and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Bill. Even though the circulation around Bill was stronger, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Bill. Bands on the western side of Bill consisted mainly of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the southeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Bill. The wind was blowing at less than tropical storm force in the other quadrants of Bill. An upper level trough east of the Great Lakes was producing strong southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Tropical Storm Bill. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and they were the cause of the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Storm Bill will move through an environment that will be only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Bill will move over the warmer water in the Gulf Stream where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C on Tuesday. However, the upper level trough east of the Great Lakes will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear, which will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Bill could intensify a little more on Tuesday, but the wind shear is likely to increase by Tuesday night.

The upper level trough east of the Great Lakes will steer Tropical Storm Bill rapidly toward the northeast. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Bill will pass southeast of Nova Scotia on Tuesday. Bill could approach southeast Newfoundland on Tuesday night.