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Depression Strengthens to Tropical Storm Imelda

Former Tropical Depression Nine strengthened to Tropical Storm Imelda over the Bahamas on Sunday afternoon.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Imelda was located at latitude 23.9°N and longitude 77.3°W which put the center about 105 miles (165 km) south of Nassau, Bahamas.   Imelda was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Central Bahamas including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas including Eleuthera, New Providence, the Abacos, the Berry Islands, Andros Island, and Grand Bahama Island.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance plane found on Sunday afternoon that former Tropical Depression Nine had strengthened.  Based on data collected by the reconnaissance plane, the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Imelda.

More thunderstorms were forming near the center of Tropical Storm Imelda on Sunday afternoon.  However, the distribution of thunderstorms in Imelda was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring mainly in bands in the eastern side of Imelda’s circulation.  Bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Imelda consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Imelda.

Tropical Storm Imelda will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Imelda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.   It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough that is west of Florida.  The upper level trough will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Imelda”s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Imelda will intensify during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough west of Florida will steer Tropical Storm Imelda toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Imelda will move across the Central and Northwestern Bahamas.

Tropical Storm Imelda will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the Central and Northwestern Bahamas.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, powerful Hurricane Humberto was passing south of Bermuda.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Humberto was located at latitude 24.6°N and longitude 64.3°W which put the center about 535 miles (855 km) south of Bermuda.  Humberto was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 180 m.p.h. (290 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 934 mb.

Hurricane Humberto Intensifies to Cat. 5

Hurricane Humberto intensified to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale south of Bermuda on Saturday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Humberto was located at latitude 22.9°N and longitude 61.1°W which put the center about 685 miles (1105 km) south-southeast of Bermuda.  Humberto was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 925 mb.

Hurricane Humberto intensified to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Saturday afternoon.  A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Humberto’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Humberto.  Storms near the center of Humberto generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large quantities of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Hurricane Humberto was very symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Humberto’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Hurricane Humberto.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Humberto is 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 10.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 45.7.  Hurricane Humberto is similar in intensity to Hurricane Michael when Michael hit Northwest Florida in 2018.  Humberto is slightly smaller than Michael was.

Hurricane Humberto will move through an environment favorable for an intense hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Humberto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and the will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Humberto could intensify during the next 24 hours.  However, the inner end of a rainband is likely to wrap around the existing eye and eyewall.  The formation of concentric eyewalls would start an eyewall replacement cycle.  An eyewall replacement cycle would cause Humberto to weaken, at least temporarily.

Hurricane Humberto will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Humberto toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Humberto will pass far to the south of Bermuda on Sunday.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Depression Nine formed north of eastern Cuba.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located at latitude 22.2°N and longitude 76.5°W which put the center about 215 miles (345 km) south-southeast of Nassau,, Bahamas.  The tropical depression was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Central Bahamas including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas including Eleuthera, New Providence, the Abacos, the Berry Islands, Andros Island, and Grand Bahama Island.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida.

Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Issued for Bahamas

Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings were issued for parts of the Bahamas on Friday afternoon because of a storm developing near the western end of Cuba.  The U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the developing storm as Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine was located at latitude 20.9°N and longitude 74.6°W which put the center about 55 miles (90 km) north-northwest of the eastern end of Cuba.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Central Bahamas including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador.

Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas including Eleuthera, New Providence, the Abacos, the Berry Islands and Grand Bahama Island.

A surface low pressure system started to form on Friday afternoon in the northern end of a tropical wave near the eastern tip of Cuba.  The circulation around the low pressure system was still in the early stages of organization.  More thunderstorms started to develop near the center of the low pressure system.  Other thunderstorms started to form into bands that will begin to revolve around the center of circulation.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will move through an environment that will be favorable for the formation of a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge that is east of the Bahamas.  The upper level ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is likely to develop into a tropical storm on Saturday.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is east of the Bahamas.  The high pressure system will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will move across the Central Bahamas on Saturday night.  It will move across the Northwestern Bahamas on Sunday.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will bring strengthening winds and locally heavy rain to the Central Bahamas and to the Northwestern Bahamas.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Humberto rapidly intensified to a major hurricane northeast of the Leeward Islands and former Hurricane Gabrielle sped east of the Azores.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Humberto was located at latitude 22.3°N and longitude 58.1°W which put the center about 430 miles (690 km) northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Humberto was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (215 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of former Hurricane Gabrielle was located at latitude 40.0°N and longitude 22.8°W which put the center about 245 miles (395 km) east-northeast of Lajes Air Base, the Azores.  Gabrielle was moving toward the east-northeast at 31 m.p.h. (50 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Tropical Storm Henri Brings Wind and Rain to Northeast U.S.

Tropical Storm Henri brought wind and rain to the northeast U.S. on Sunday. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located at latitude 41.4°N and longitude 71.8°W which put it about 5 miles (10 km) north of Westerly, Rhode Island. Henri was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb. Tropical storm force winds extended out 130 miles on the eastern side of Henri. Tropical Storm force winds extended out 80 miles in the western half of the circulation.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from East Rockaway Inlet, New York to Chatham, Massachusetts. The Tropical Storm Warning included all of Long Island, Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket.

Former Hurricane Henri weakened back to a tropical storm on Sunday morning when it moved over cooler water north of the Gulf Stream. Even though it was weaker, Tropical Storm Henri was producing gusty winds along the coast. A weather station on Block Island, Rhode Island reported a sustained wind speed of 52 m.p.h. (84 km/h) and a wind gust to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). A weather station at Point Judith, Rhode Island reported a sustained wind speed of 51 m.p.h. (82 km/h) and a wind gust to 69 m.p.h. (111 km/h). A NOAA C-MAN station at Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts reported a sustained wind speed of 49 m.p.h. (79 km/h) and a wind gust to 57 m.p.h. (92 km/h). The gusty winds were causing scattered power outages in southern New England.

Tropical Storm Henri was also dropping heavy rain over parts of the northeastern U.S. Flash Flood Watches were in effect for northeastern Pennsylvania, southeastern New York and southern New England.

Tropical Storm Henri will move slowly toward the northwest during the rest of Sunday. The westerly winds in the middle latitudes will begin to steer Henri toward the east-northeast on Monday. Tropical Storm Henri will continue to weaken as it moves inland over southern New England. Henri will continue to drop heavy rain on some locations and the risk of flash floods will continue into early next week.

Hurricane Henri Moves Toward Long Island

Hurricane Henri moved toward Long Island on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Henri was located at latitude 38.6°N and longitude 71.0°W which put it about 180 miles (290 km) south-southeast of Montauk Point, New York. Henri was moving toward the north at 11 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for eastern Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor. A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from New Haven, Connecticut to Westport, Massachusetts. The Hurricane Warning included Block Island. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the south coast of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Fire Island Inlet. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the north coast of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Port Jefferson, Harbor. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from East Rockaway Inlet to New Haven, Connecticut. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect from the portion of the coast from Westport, Massachusetts to Chatham, Massachusetts. The Tropical Storm Warning included Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from East Rockaway Inlet, New York to Manasquan Inlet, New Jersey. The Tropical Storm Warning included New York City.

Hurricane Henri exhibited more organization on Saturday night but reconnaissance flights were not finding an increase in the wind speeds. A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) formed at the center of Henri. The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Henri. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease slowly on Saturday. Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles in the southeastern quadrant of Henri. The winds in the other parts of Henri were blowing at less than hurricane force. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Henri will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Henri will move over the Gulf Stream where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move around the eastern side of an upper level trough over the eastern U.S. The trough will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Henri’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear may not be enough to prevent some intensification during the next few hours. Hurricane Henri could strengthen during the next 6 hours. Henri will move over cooler water when it moves north of the Gulf Stream on Sunday and that will cause it to weaken. Some drier air could wrap around the western and southern sides of Hurricane Henri on Sunday.

The upper level trough will steer Hurricane Henri toward the north-northwest on Sunday. On its anticipated track Hurricane Henri will approach Long Island during the middle of the day on Sunday. Henri could still be a hurricane when it nears Long Island. Hurricane Henri is likely to cause minor wind damage on Long Island and in southern New England. Gusty winds and falling trees could cause widespread power outages. Henri could move more slowly when it moves across southern New England. Locally heavy rain over a prolonged period could cause flash floods. Hurricane Henri could cause a storm surge of up to 4 to 7 feet (1 to 2 meters) where the wind blows the water toward the coast.

Henri Strengthens to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Henri strengthened to a hurricane on Saturday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Henri was located at latitude 34.4°N and longitude 72.5°W which put it about 180 miles (290 km) east-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Henri was moving toward the north-northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for eastern Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor. A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from New Haven, Connecticut to Westport, Massachusetts. The Hurricane Warning included Block Island. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the south coast of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Fire Island Inlet. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the north coast of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Port Jefferson, Harbor. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from East Rockaway Inlet to New Haven, Connecticut. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect from the portion of the coast from Westport, Massachusetts to Chatham, Massachusetts. The Tropical Storm Warning included Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from East Rockaway Inlet, New York to Manasquan Inlet, New Jersey. The Tropical Storm Warning included New York City.

Reconnaissance planes found that former Tropical Storm Henri has strengthened to a hurricane on Saturday morning. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Henri and the inner end of a rainband wrapped around the north side of the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease. Winds to hurricane force extended out 60 miles in the southeastern quadrant of Henri. The winds in the other parts of the storm were blowing at less than hurricane force. Winds to tropical storm for extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Henri will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Henri will move over the Gulf Stream where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move around the eastern side of an upper level trough over the eastern U.S. The trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Henri’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Hurricane Henri is likely to strengthen during the next 12 hours. Henri will move over cooler water when it moves north of the Gulf Stream on Sunday and that will cause it to weaken.

The upper level trough will steer Hurricane Henri toward the north-northeast during the next 12 hours. The position and orientation of the trough will change as it interacts with Hurricane Henri. The trough will pull Henri toward the north-northwest on Sunday. On its anticipated track Hurricane Henri will approach Long Island on Sunday afternoon. Henri could be a hurricane when it nears Long Island. Hurricane Henri is likely to cause minor wind damage on Long Island and in southern New England. Gusty winds and falling trees could cause widespread power outages. Henri could move slowly when it moves across southern New England. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods. Hurricane Henri could cause a storm surge of up to 4 to 7 feet (1 to 2 meters) where the wind blows the water toward the coast.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Grace was dropping heavy rain over parts of central Mexico. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located at latitude 19.7°N and longitude 98.9°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) north-northeast of Mexico City, Mexico. Grace was moving toward the west-southwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Veracruz to Barra de Tordo, Mexico.

Grace Rapidly Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Grace rapidly intensified to a major hurricane near Mexico on Friday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Grace was located at latitude 20.7°N and longitude 96.3°W which put it about 75 miles (120 km) east-southeast of Tuxpan, Mexico. Grace was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Veracuz to Cabo Rojo, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo, Mexico.

Hurricane Grace rapidly intensified to a major hurricane on Friday night. A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) was at the center of Grace. The eye was surround by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Grace. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease, which produced a rapid increase in the surface wind speed.

Hurricane Grace was an average sized hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Grace. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Grace was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 33.3. Hurricane Grace was capable of regional major damage.

Hurricane Grace will move south of a high pressure system that extends over the Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Grace toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Grace will make landfall on the coast of Mexico between Tuxpan and Veracruz in a few hours. Grace will be capable of causing major wind damage. It will drop locally heavy rain and flash floods are likely. Hurricane Grace could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) where the wind blows the water toward the coast. Grace will weaken quickly when it moves inland over Mexico, but heavy rain could cause flash floods over parts of Central Mexico,

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Henri was moving toward the north off the East Coast of the U.S. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located at latitude 32.3°N and longitude 73.5°W which put it about 230 miles (375 km) south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Henri was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (85 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for eastern Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor. A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from New Haven, Connecticut to Watch Hill, Rhode Island. A Hurricane Watch was in effect from Watch Hill, Rhode Island to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts. The Hurricane Watch included Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the south coast of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Fire Island Inlet. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the north coast of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Port Jefferson, Harbor. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from East Rockaway Inlet to New Haven, Connecticut. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect from the portion of the coast from Watch Hill, Rhode Island to Wood Hole, Massachusetts. The Tropical Storm Warning included Block Island and Martha’s Vineyard. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from East Rockaway Inlet, New York to Manasquan Inlet, New Jersey. The Tropical Storm Warning included New York City.

Tropical Storm Henri Prompts Hurricane Watches for Long Island, Southeast New England

A potential threat from Tropical Storm Henri prompted the issuance of Hurricane Watches for parts of Long Island and southeastern New England on Friday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located at latitude 30.0°N and longitude 73.7°W which put it about 375 miles (600 km) southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Henri was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was issued for eastern Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor. A Hurricane Watch was also issued for the portion of the coast from New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts. The Hurricane Watch included Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the south coast of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Fire Island Inlet. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the north coast of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor. A Tropical Storm Watch was also issued for the portion of the coast from East Rockaway Inlet to New Haven, Connecticut.

Tropical Storm Henri did not change much during Thursday night. The distribution of thunderstorms around Henri remained asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Henri. Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Henri was moving under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge off the east coast of the U.S. The ridge was producing northeasterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Henri’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and they were also contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Henri.

Although Tropical Storm Henri is currently moving toward the west-northwest, an upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will turn Henri toward the north on Friday. The trough will steer Henri toward the north on Saturday. When Henri turns toward the north it will move under the axis of the upper level ridge. The upper level winds are weaker near the axis of the ridge and the wind shear will be less. Tropical Storm Henri is likely to strengthen to a hurricane on Saturday. Henri will move over the warm water in the Gulf Stream and there is a chance that Henri could strengthen to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

A high pressure system will move northeast of Henri on Sunday. The high pressure system will block Henri and prevent it from moving toward the northeast. The high pressure system will also slow the forward speed of Henri. Henri could be moving slowly when it nears Long Island and southeastern New England. A slow forward speed would increase the time period when places experience strong gusty winds, which would increase the chance for wind damage and power outages. Slow movement would also increase the total rainfall in many locations and the risk for flash floods would increase. Henri could also cause a storm surge of up to 4 to 7 feet (1 to 2 meters) along the coast.

Elsewhere, former Tropical Storm Grace strengthened back to a hurricane over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Friday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Grace was located at latitude 20.6°N and longitude 93.7°W which put it about 185 miles (300 km) east-northeast of Veracruz, Mexico. Grace was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Veracuz to Cabo Rojo, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Elsa Brings Wind and Rain to Northeast U.S.

Tropical Storm Elsa brought wind and rain to the northeast U.S. on Friday morning. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 40.2°N and longitude 73.1°W which put it about 90 miles (145 km) southwest of Montauk Point, New York. Elsa was moving toward the northeast at 31 m.p.h. (50 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the eastern portion of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including Block Island, Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard, and Cape Cod.

Tropical Storm Elsa was buffeting the northeastern U.S. with gusty winds and locally heavy rain on Friday morning. The center of Elsa was passing south of Long Island, but rain was falling over an area that extended from New York City to southern Maine. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) to the southeast of the center of Elsa. Winds to tropical storm force also extended out 80 miles (130 km) to the northeast of the center of circulation. Winds in the western half of Tropical Storm Elsa were not as strong. Elsa could cause sporadic power outages and flash floods in the northeastern U.S. on Friday.

Tropical Storm Elsa will make a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next 24 hours, while it moves quickly toward the northeast. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 22°C. An upper level trough over the Great Lakes will produce strong southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Elsa’s circulation. Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear. The combination of cooler Sea Surface Temperatures and strong wind shear will cause the structure of Tropical Storm Elsa to change to the structure of an extratropical cyclone. The center of Elsa will pass near Cape Cod on Friday afternoon. Elsa will pass over the Canadian Maritime Provinces on Friday night. It could be near Labrador and eastern Newfoundland on Saturday.

Tropical Storm Elsa Moves over North Carolina

Tropical Storm Elsa moved over North Carolina on Thursday. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 35.6°N and longitude 79.0°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) west of Raleigh, North Carolina. Elsa was moving toward the northeast at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from South Santee River, South Carolina to Sandy Hook, New Jersey. The Tropical Storm Warning included Pamlico Sound and Albemarle Sound. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the eastern portion of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including Block Island, Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard, and Cape Cod.

Tropical Storm Elsa moved a little more quickly toward the northeast on Thursday. The surface center of Elsa moved over North Carolina. The structure of Elsa exhibited the typical characteristics of a tropical storm moving northeast near the coast of the U.S. Heavy rain was falling in the northeastern part of Tropical Storm Elsa. The heaviest rain was falling on eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia. Drier air was wrapping around the western and southern sides of Elsa. The strongest winds were blowing in the southeastern part of Tropical Storm Elsa that was over the Atlantic Ocean.

An upper level trough over the Great Lakes will steer Tropical Storm Elsa quickly toward the northeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Elsa will move over Virginia on Thursday evening. Tropical Storm Elsa could be near Long Island on Friday morning. Elsa could pass near Cape Cod later on Friday. Tropical Storm Elsa will make a transition to an extratropical cyclone when it moves farther north. Elsa will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the East Coast of the U.S. from North Carolina to Massachusetts. Tropical Storm Elsa could cause sporadic power outages along the East Coast. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.