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Tropical Storm Debby Moves Inland

Tropical Storm Debby moved inland over the eastern U.S. on Thursday morning.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located at latitude 34.8°N and longitude 80.2°W which put the center about 55 miles (90 km) east-southeast of Charlotte, North Carolina.  Debby was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Surf City to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina.

Tropical Storm Debby weakened gradually as it moved inland over South Carolina on Thursday morning.  The strongest winds were in bands in the part of Tropical Storm Debby that was still over the Atlantic Ocean.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) east of the center of Debby’s circulation.  The winds were blowing at less than tropical storm force in the parts of Debby that were over land.

Bands of thunderstorms in the northern and eastern parts of Tropical Storm Debby were dropping heavy rain over eastern North Carolina and southern Virginia.  Flood Warnings were in effect for many counties in eastern North Carolina.

The Lumber River at Lumberton, North Carolina was at 17.73 feet (5.40 meters) which was in the Moderate Flood range.  The river was still rising.  The Rock River near Norwood, North Carolina was at 26.73 feet (8.15 meters) which was in the Minor Flood range.  The river was still rising.  The Little River at Manchester, North Carolina was at 23.46 feet (7.15 meters) which is in the Moderate Flood range.  The river was still rising.  The Little Pee Dee River near Galivants Ferry, South Carolina was at 9.25 feet (2.82 meters) which is in the Minor Flood range.  The river was still rising.

An upper level trough approaching the Great Lakes will steer Tropical Storm Debby more quickly toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  Debby will weaken to a tropical depression during the next few hours.  Even though the wind speeds will decrease further, Tropical Storm Debby will continue to drop heavy rain on the eastern side of the Appalachian Mountains.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in additional locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for North Carolina, Virginia, eastern West Virginia, central Pennsylvania, central and northeastern New York, northern Vermont, and northern New Hampshire.

Tropical Storm Debby Drops Heavy Rain on the Carolinas

Tropical Storm Debby dropped heavy rain on the Carolinas on Wednesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located at latitude 32.9°N and longitude 79.5°W which put the center about 25 miles (40 km) east-northeast of Charleston, South Carolina.   Debby was moving toward the north-northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).   The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Surf City, North Carolina.  The Tropical Storm Warning included Charleston, South Carolina.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Surf City to Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina.

Bands in the northern part of Tropical Storm Debby dropped heavy rain on eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina.  There were Flood Warnings for a number of rivers in eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina including the Cape Fear River, the Lumber River, the Little Pee Dee River and the Great Pee Dee River.

Drier air was still present near the center of Tropical Storm Debby.  There were a few thunderstorms near the center of Debby, but much of the middle of Debby’s circulation consisted of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the outer parts of the circulation in northern side of Tropical Storm Debby.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in outer parts of the circulation in the southern side of Debby.

The distribution of winds in Tropical Storm Debby continued to be asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (300 km) in the eastern side of Debby’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) in the southwestern quadrant of Tropical Storm Debby.  The winds in the northwestern quadrant, which was mostly over land, were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Debby will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Debby will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the southeastern U.S.  The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The drier air in the middle part of Debby’s circulation will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Debby is likely to maintain its intensity during the next few hours.

Tropical Storm Debby will move around the western side of high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Debby slowly toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Debby will cross the coast of South Carolina on Wednesday night.  An upper level trough approaching the Great Lakes will steer Debby more quickly toward the northeast on Friday.

Tropical Storm Debby will continue to drop heavy rain on parts of South Carolina and North Carolina on Thursday.  Since Debby will move slowly, persistent heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Tropical Storm Debby will drop heavy rain on the eastern slopes of the Appalachian Mountains on Friday.

Flood Watches are in effect for parts of South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, western Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and Pennsylvania.

Southerly winds blowing around the eastern side of Tropical Storm Debby will continue to push water toward the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina.  Debby could cause a storm surge of up to 4 feet (1 meter).

 

The wind

Tropical Depression Nicole Drops Heavy Rain over Southeast U.S.

Tropical Depression Nicole dropped heavy rain over parts of the southeastern U.S. on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Nicole was located at latitude 34.2°N and longitude 84.3°W which put it about 35 miles (55 km) north of Atlanta, Georgia. Nicole was moving toward the north-northeast at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

Tropical Storm Nicole dropped heavy rain over parts of the southeastern U.S. on Friday morning. Heavy rain was falling over eastern Tennessee and eastern Kentucky. Bands in the far eastern side of Nicole’s circulation contained thunderstorms that were dropping heavy rain over parts of eastern South Carolina, eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia. Easterly winds blowing around the northern side of Nicole’s circulation were enhancing convergence and rising motion ahead of a cold front moving toward the eastern U.S. The enhanced convergence and rising motion was contributing to rain that was falling in the region from Delaware to Ohio.

The cold front approaching the eastern U.S. and an upper level trough over the central U.S. will steer Tropical Depression Nicole quickly toward the north-northeast during Friday. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Depression Nicole will be over West Virginia by Friday evening. Heavy rain falling over parts of the southeastern U.S. and Appalachians could cause flooding. Flood Watches were in effect for parts of northern South Carolina, western North Carolina and southern Virginia. There could be enough low level wind shear for tornadoes to develop in the bands on the far eastern side of the circulation around Tropical Depression Nicole. A Tornado Watch was in effect for eastern South Carolina, eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia.

Larry Strengthens to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Larry strengthened to a hurricane over the eastern Atlantic Ocean early on Thursday. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Larry was located at latitude 13.0°N and longitude 32.3°W which put it about 545 miles (875 km) west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Larry was moving toward the west at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Larry intensified quickly during the past 24 hours and it reached hurricane intensity early on Thursday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Hurricane Larry and an eye appeared intermittently on visible and microwave satellite images. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Larry. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Larry. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Larry will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days. Larry will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27.5˚C. It will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Larry’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The winds in the lower levels will also blow from the east and so there will not be a lot of vertical wind shear. Hurricane Larry will strengthen during the next 48 hours and it could intensify to a major hurricane. Hurricane could undergo a period of rapid intensification once an inner core with an eye and an eyewall are fully formed.

Hurricane Larry will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high will steer Larry toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Hurricane Larry will move farther away from the Cabo Verde islands. Larry could be east of the northern Leeward Islands by the weekend.

Elsewhere, the remnants of former Hurricane Ida interacted with a slow moving cold front to cause widespread urban and flash floods in the northeastern U.S. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of the remnants of former Hurricane Ida was located at latitude 41.4°N and longitude 71.6°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km) southwest of Providence, Rhode Island. Ida was moving toward the northeast at 28 m.p.h. (43 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb. There were reports of urban and flash floods in central and eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey and southeastern New York including New York City. There were reports of tornadoes in Maryland and New Jersey.

Tropical Depression Ida Brings Rain and Storms to Southeast U.S.

Tropical Depression Ida brought rain and thunderstorms to the southeast U.S. on Monday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Ida was located at latitude 32.6°N and longitude 90.3°W which put it about 20 miles (30 km) north-northwest of Jackson, Mississippi. Ida was moving toward the north-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Former Hurricane Ida weakened to a tropical depression over Mississippi on Monday afternoon. Even though the speed of the wind circulating around Ida decreased, Tropical Depression Ida was still dropping locally heavy rain and generating a few tornadoes over the southeast U.S. Thunderstorms in bands on the eastern side of Ida were dropping locally heavy rain over parts of Mississippi, Alabama, northwest Florida and northwestern Georgia. Flash Flood Watches were in effect for all of those places. Tornadoes were reported in southeastern Mississippi, and southwestern and central Alabama.

Electricity was still out in all of New Orleans. Southerly winds blowing around the eastern side of Tropical Depression Ida’s circulation were still pushing water toward the coast. Those winds were blowing to near tropical storm force in some locations. A weather station at Fort Morgan, Alabama was reporting a sustained wind speed of 38 m.p.h. (61 km/h) and a wind gust of 47 m.p.h. (76 km/h). The water levels had decreased along the coast, but the persistent southerly winds were preventing the water levels from returning to normal. The water levels should continue to decrease when Tropical Depression Ida moves farther away from the coast.

Tropical Depression Ida will move northeast during the next 72 hours. The center of Ida will cross Tennessee on Tuesday. Ida could be over West Virginia on Wednesday and it could reach the east coast of the U.S. on Thursday. Tropical Depression Ida will continue to drop locally heavy rain over the eastern U.S. The circulation around Ida will interact with a cold front moving slowly south toward the Ohio River. The interaction between Ida and the cold front could enhance rainfall over the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys. Flash Flood Watches are in effect across the region from Tennessee to New Jersey.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Julian made a transition to an extratropical cyclone west of the Azores on Monday morning and Tropical Storm Kate developed east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located at latitude 22.7°N and longitude 50.9°W which put it about 805 miles (1295 km) east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. Kate was moving toward the north at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Henri Brings Wind and Rain to Northeast U.S.

Tropical Storm Henri brought wind and rain to the northeast U.S. on Sunday. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located at latitude 41.4°N and longitude 71.8°W which put it about 5 miles (10 km) north of Westerly, Rhode Island. Henri was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb. Tropical storm force winds extended out 130 miles on the eastern side of Henri. Tropical Storm force winds extended out 80 miles in the western half of the circulation.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from East Rockaway Inlet, New York to Chatham, Massachusetts. The Tropical Storm Warning included all of Long Island, Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket.

Former Hurricane Henri weakened back to a tropical storm on Sunday morning when it moved over cooler water north of the Gulf Stream. Even though it was weaker, Tropical Storm Henri was producing gusty winds along the coast. A weather station on Block Island, Rhode Island reported a sustained wind speed of 52 m.p.h. (84 km/h) and a wind gust to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). A weather station at Point Judith, Rhode Island reported a sustained wind speed of 51 m.p.h. (82 km/h) and a wind gust to 69 m.p.h. (111 km/h). A NOAA C-MAN station at Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts reported a sustained wind speed of 49 m.p.h. (79 km/h) and a wind gust to 57 m.p.h. (92 km/h). The gusty winds were causing scattered power outages in southern New England.

Tropical Storm Henri was also dropping heavy rain over parts of the northeastern U.S. Flash Flood Watches were in effect for northeastern Pennsylvania, southeastern New York and southern New England.

Tropical Storm Henri will move slowly toward the northwest during the rest of Sunday. The westerly winds in the middle latitudes will begin to steer Henri toward the east-northeast on Monday. Tropical Storm Henri will continue to weaken as it moves inland over southern New England. Henri will continue to drop heavy rain on some locations and the risk of flash floods will continue into early next week.

Grace Intensifies to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Grace intensified to a hurricane west of the Cayman Islands on Wednesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Grace was located at latitude 19.4°N and longitude 82.2°W which put it about 65 miles (105km) west of Grand Cayman. Grace was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cancun to Punta Herrero, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Cozumel. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Cayman Islands. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Cancun to Campeche, Mexico and from Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud and Pinar del Rio.

Hurricane Grace was intensifying on Wednesday morning. A reconnaissance plane found that an eye with a diameter of 18 miles (29 km) was forming at the center of Grace. The developing eye was surround by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Grace. Storms near the core of Grace were generating upper level divergence that was pumping mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) on the eastern side of Grace. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Grace will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Grace will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge centered near Florida. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Grace’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will be too small to prevent intensification. Hurricane Grace will continue to intensify during the next 12 hours. A period of rapid intensification could occur once an inner core with an eye and an eyewall is fully formed at the center of Grace.

Hurricane Grace will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high will steer Grace toward the west-northwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Hurricane Grace will approach the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday night. Grace will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain. Flash flooding is likely to occur in some locations. Grace will also cause a storm surge along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Fred was dropping heavy rain over parts of the northeastern U.S. and Tropical Storm Henri was passing southwest of Bermuda.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located at latitude 39.5°N and longitude 80.7°W which put it about 90 miles (145 km) south-southwest of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Fred was moving toward the northeast at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1013 mb. Flood Watches and Flash Flood Watches were in effect for parts of the eastern U.S.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located at latitude 30.0°N and longitude 66.6°W which put it about 190 miles (310 km) southwest of Bermuda. Henri was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb

Hurricane Isaias Brings Wind and Rain to MidAtlantic States

Hurricane Isaias brought wind and rain to the MidAtlantic states of the U.S. on Tuesday.  Isaias weakened to a tropical storm on Tuesday morning as it moved over eastern Virginia.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located at latitude 37.7°N and longitude 76.8°W which put it about 15 miles (25 km) south-southeast of Tappahannock, Virginia.  Isaias was moving toward the north-northeast at 33 m.p.h. (54 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Surf City, North Carolina to Eastport, Maine including Albemarle Sound, Pamlico, Sound, Long Island, Long Island Sound, Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket.

The center of Hurricane Isaias officially made landfall on the coast at Ocean Isle Beach, North Carolina.  The maximum sustained wind speed at the time of landfall was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  A weather station at Oak Island, North Carolina measured a sustained wind speed of 76 m.p.h. and a wind gust to 87 m.p.h. (140 km/h).

The center of Isaias moved rapidly toward the north-northeast during the overnight hours and it passed between Richmond and Norfolk, Virginia.  The strongest winds were occurring along the coast and over the Atlantic Ocean on Tuesday morning.  A weather station at Duck, North Carolina measured a sustained wind speed of 48 m.p.h. (78 km/h) and a wind gust of 63 m.p.h. (102 km/h).  A weather station at Poquoson, Virginia measured a sustained wind speed of 39 m.p.h. (63 km/h) and a wind gust to 56 m.p.h. (91 km/h).  A weather station on Third Island which is near the Mouth of Chesapeake Bay recently measured a sustained wind speed of 63 m.p.h. (101 km/h) and a wind gust of 77 m.p.h. (124 km/h).

Tropical Storm Isaias will move rapidly toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours.  The center of Isaias will pass west of New York City later today.  Tropical Storm Isaias will gradually weaken, but it could bring tropical storm force winds to the northeastern U.S.  Wind shear in the lower levels of Tropical Storm Isaias’ circulation is contributing to the spin up of tornadoes.  Isaias will drop locally heavy rain and flash floods could occur.

Tropical Storm Isaias will take a track similar to the tracks taken by Hurricane Irene in 2011 and Hurricane Isabel in 2003.  Hurricane Irene was similar in strength and a little bit larger than Isaias when it hit North Carolina in 2011.  Irene was already weakening when it hit the coast while Isaias was strengthening at landfall.  According to the Tropical Cyclone Report on the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) website, Hurricane Irene caused 15.8 billions dollars of damage in the U.S.

Hurricane Isabel was larger and stronger than Isaias was when it made landfall in North Carolina.  Isabel was also weakening at the time of landfall.  According to the Tropical Cyclone Report on NHC’s website for Hurricane Isabel, it caused 5.4 billion dollars of damage in the U.S.

 

Isaias Strengthens Back into a Hurricane

Isaias strengthened back into a hurricane on Monday evening.  At 9:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Isaias was located at latitude 33.1°N and longitude 78.8°W which put it about 55 miles (90 km) south-southeast of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.  Isaias was moving toward the north-northeast at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from South Santee River, South Carolina to Surf City, North Carolina.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portion of the coast from Edisto Beach to South Santee River, South Carolina and from Surf City, North Carolina to Stonington, Maine including Albemarle Sound, Pamlico Sound, Long Island, Long Island Sound, Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Stonington, to Eastport, Maine.

The circulation around Hurricane Isaias became much better organized on Monday afternoon.  A reconnaissance aircraft investigating Isaias found winds to hurricane force.  An elliptical eye developed at the center of Hurricane Isaias.  A broken ring of thunderstorms surrounded the elliptical eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Isaias.  The strongest rainbands were in the northern half of the circulation.  Bands in the southern half of Hurricane Isaias consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Isaias was 12.7.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 15.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 28.0.  Hurricane Isaias was capable of causing regional minor damage.

The center of Hurricane Isaias will make landfall between Myrtle Beach, South Carolina and Southport, North Carolina during the next few hours.  Isaias will bring hurricane force winds to the portion of the coast from Myrtle Beach, South Carolina to Surf City, North Carolina.  It will generate a storm surge of 3 to 6 feet (1 to 2 meters) along the coast.  Hurricane Isaias will drop heavy rain over extreme eastern South Carolina, eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia.  Heavy rain could cause flooding in some locations.

The center of Hurricane Isaias will pass just west of Norfolk, Virginia on Tuesday morning.  isaias will weaken when it passes over land, but it will still bring gusty winds over eastern Virginia.  Isaias will pass near New York City on Tuesday evening and it will bring gusty winds to New England on Tuesday night.  Isaias could cause widespread power outages along the East Coast of the U.S.  It will also drop heavy rain east of the Appalachians and flash floods could occur in that region.

Tropical Storm Isaias Turns Toward the Carolinas

Tropical Storm Isaias turned toward the Carolinas on Monday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located at latitude 30.7°N and longitude 80.1°W which put it about 220 miles (350 km) south-southwest of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.  Isaias was moving toward the north at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from South Santee River, South Carolina to Surt City, North Carolina.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to South Santee River, South Carolina and from Surf City North Carolina to Watch Hill, Rhode Island including Albemarle Sound, Pamlico Sound, Long Island and Long Island Sound.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Watch Hill, Rhode Island to Stonington, Maine including Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket.

Tropical Storm Isaias seemed to begin another cycle where the thunderstorm activity pulsed down during the overnight hours.  However, visible satellite and radar images seemed to indicate that thunderstorms were starting redevelop on Monday morning.  A band of thunderstorms appeared to be wrapping around the northern side of the circulation.  Thunderstorms were also increasing in bands in the northern and eastern parts of Isaias.  Bands in the southern and western sides of Isaias consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The circulation of Tropical Storm Isaias could be pulling in some drier air around the southern and western parts of the storm.  That is a fairly typical occurrence with tropical systems moving up the East Coast of the U.S.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) in the northern and eastern quadrants of Isaias.  The winds in the southern and western parts of the circulation were mostly at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Isaias will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Isaias will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level trough over the Central U.S. will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Isaias.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear which will inhibit intensification.  The wind shear is expected to decrease slightly later on Monday, which could allow Isaias to strengthen into a hurricane.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Storm Isaias toward the north-northeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Isaias will make landfall near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina on Monday night.  Isaias could be a hurricane when it makes landfall.  Isaias will bring gusty winds and a storm surge of 3 to 6 feet (1 to 2 meters) to the coast near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.  The center of Isaias will move across eastern North Carolina and it could be near Norfolk, Virginia on Tuesday morning.  Tropical Storm Isaias could pass near New York City later on Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Isaias will bring gusty winds to the East Coast of the U.S. from South Carolina to Maine.  Isaias will also drop locally heavy rain from eastern South Carolina to New England.  The National Weather Service has indicated that a Moderate Risk of flash floods exists for the region from eastern South Carolina to eastern Pennsylvania.