Tag Archives: Yucatan

Hurricane Beryl Hits the Yucatan

Hurricane Beryl hit the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 20.4°N and longitude 87.6°W which put the center about 15 miles (25 km) north-northwest of Tulum, Mexico.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun, Mexico.  A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for Cozumel.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Cancun, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Campeche to Cancun, Mexico.   A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

The center of Hurricane Beryl made landfall on the coast of Mexico near Tulum on Friday morning.  Beryl was a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale at the time of landfall.  A small circular eye was present at the center of Beryl’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.  Storms near the core of Beryl’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 25.8.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that extends over the western Atlantic Ocean and southeastern U.S.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Beryl will move across the northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula during the rest of Friday.

Hurricane Beryl will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula.  Strong winds and heavy rain will occur in Quintana Roo and Yucatan.  Beryl is capable of causing serious damage.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Hurricane Beryl could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the portion of the coast north of Tulum.

Hurricane Beryl will weaken as it moves across the Yucatan Peninsula.  Beryl will likely weaken to a tropical storm while it is over the Yucatan.  Hurricane Beryl will move over the western Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.  Beryl will move into an environment somewhat favorable for intensification when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the eastern part of an upper level low over the western Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level low will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be enough to prevent strengthening.  Beryl could could intensify back to a hurricane when it moves over the Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Beryl will move more toward the northwest during the weekend.  Beryl could approach the coast of Texas on Sunday.  Watches may be issued for the coast later on Friday or on Saturday.

 

Tropical Storm Idalia Causes Hurricane Warning for West Coast of Florida

The imminent threat posed by Tropical Storm Idalia caused the issuance of a Hurricane Warning for the west coast of Florida on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was located at latitude 20.8°N and longitude 85.2°W which put it about 80 miles (130 km) south-southwest of the western end of Cuba. Idalia was moving toward the north at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Ochlockonee River to the middle of Longboat Key, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included Tampa Bay. A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the Cuban Province of Pinar del Rio. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portions of the coast from Englewood to the middle of Longboat Key, Florida and from the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee to the middle of Longboat Key, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning included Cozumel. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the Cuban Province. of Isle of Youth. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Lower Florida Keys west of Seven Mile Bridge. A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

Tropical Storm Idalai strengthened gradually on Monday morning. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Idalia’s circulation. Even though Tropical Storm Idalia was stronger, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms in Idalia were in bands in the southern and eastern parts of the circulation. Bands north and west of the center of circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Tropical Storm Idalia was under the eastern part of an upper level ridge over the Yucatan Peninsula. The ridge was producing northeasterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Idalia’s circulation. Those winds were causing vertical wind shear and the wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Storm Idalia will move into an environment that will become more favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Idalia will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move into a region between the upper level ridge over the Yucatan Peninsula and an upper level low over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The upper level winds are weaker between the ridge and the low and there will be less vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Idalia will intensify to a hurricane during the next 24 hours. Idalia could intensify rapidly when the upper level winds weaken. Idalia could strengthen to a major hurricane on Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Idalia will move around the western end of high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Idalia toward the north during the next 24 hours. The center of Idalia will pass near the western end of Cuba in a few hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Idalia will move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday night. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will turn Idalia toward the northeast later on Tuesday. Idalia is likely to make landfall on the west coast of Florida on Wednesday morning. Idalia could make landfall as a major hurricane.

Tropical Storm Idalia will drop heavy rain over parts of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Idalia could be be a major hurricane when it reaches the west coast of Florida. Idalia is likely to make landfall in an area where high storm surges can occur. Idalia could cause a storm surge of up to 12 feet (3.5 meters) near where the center makes landfall. A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the portion of the coast from Englewood to Ocholockonee River, Florida. The Storm Surge Warning includes Tampa Bay. Idalia will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of central and northern Florida. Widespread outages of electricity are likely. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Franklin rapidly intensified to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale was over the Atlantic Ocean southwest of Bermuda. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Franklin was located at latitude 27.8°N and longitude 71.0°W which put it about 480 miles (770 km) southwest of Bermuda. Franklin was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 170 m.p.h. (280 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 937 mb. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Idalia Prompts Hurricane Watch for West Coast of Florida

A risk posed by Tropical Storm Idalia prompted the issuance of a Hurricane Watch for part of the west coast of Florida. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was located at latitude 20.1°N and longitude 85.5°W which put it about 95 miles (155 km) east-southeast of Cozumel. Idalia was moving toward the northeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (60 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Englewood to Indian Pass, Florida. The Hurricane Watch included Tampa Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning included Cozumel. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the Cuban Province. of Pinar del Rio. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Englewood to Chokoloskee, Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Isle of Youth.

Tropical Storm Idalia did not change a lot on Sunday afternoon. A few more thunderstorms developed near the low level center of circulation. The low level center of circulation was meandering around inside of a larger counterclockwise rotation over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea. There were bands of showers and thunderstorms in the larger counterclockwise circulation. The thunderstorms in the larger circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the low level center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Idalia will be in an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Idalia will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will be under an upper level ridge over the Yucatan Channel. The winds are weak in the upper level ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, much of the air moving around the western side of Tropical Storm Idalia will pass over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. Some of the air in the eastern side of the Idalia will pass over western Cuba. The flow of air over land will inhibit intensification, but it probably will not prevent intensification. Tropical Storm Idalia could intensify slowly during the next 12 hours. Idalia could intensify more quickly on Monday when it moves over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Idalia is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane by Monday night

.Tropical Storm Idalia will be in a region where the steering currents are weak during the next 12 hours. Idalia may not move much during that time period. A high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean will start to steer Idalia toward the north on Monday. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Idalia will move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. could start to turn Idalia toward the northeast later on Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Idalia will drop heavy rain over parts of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Idalia is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the west coast of Florida. Idalia is likely to make landfall in an area where high storm surges can occur. Idalia could cause a storm surge of up to 11 feet (3.3 meters) near where the center makes landfall. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee to Indian Pass, Florida. The Storm Surge Watch includes Tampa Bay.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Franklin was over the Atlantic Ocean southwest of Bermuda. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Franklin was located at latitude 25.9°N and longitude 70.0°W which put it about 535 miles (855 km) southwest of Bermuda. Franklin was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

TD 10 Strengthens to Tropical Storm Idalia

Former Tropical Depression Ten strengthened to Tropical Storm Idalia over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea east of the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was located at latitude 19.9°N and longitude 85.8°W which put it about 80 miles (130 km) east-southeast of Cozumel. Idalia was moving toward the east at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (60 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning included Cozumel. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the Cuban Province. of Pinar del Rio. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Isle of Youth.

A NOAA research aircraft found sustained tropical storm force winds in former Tropical Depression Ten on Sunday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Idalia. There was a low level center of circulation meandering around inside of a larger counterclockwise rotation over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thunderstorm activity fluctuated near the low level center of circulation. There were few thunderstorms currently near the low level center. There were bands of showers and thunderstorms in the larger counterclockwise circulation. The thunderstorms in the larger circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (50 km) from the low level center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Idalia will be in an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical depression will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will be under an upper level ridge over the Yucatan Channel. The winds are weak in the upper level ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, much of the air moving around the western side of Tropical Storm Idalia will pass over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. Some of the air in the eastern side of the Idalia will pass over western Cuba. The flow of air over land will inhibit intensification, but it probably will not prevent intensification. Tropical Storm Idalia could intensify slowly on Sunday. Idalia could intensify to a hurricane early next week when it moves over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Idalia will be in a region where the steering currents are weak during the next 12 hours. Idalia may not move much during the rest of Sunday. A high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean will start to steer Idalia toward the north on Monday. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Idalia Ten will move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday.

Tropical Storm Idalia will drop heavy rain over parts of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Franklin continued to strengthen over the Atlantic Ocean south-southwest of Bermuda. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Franklin was located at latitude 25.1°N and longitude 69.3°W which put it about 565 miles (905 km) south-southwest of Bermuda. Franklin was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 971 mb.

Tropical Depression Ten Forms over the Yucatan Channel

Tropical Depression Ten formed over the Yucatan Channel on Saturday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located at latitude 21.1°N and longitude 86.1°W which put it about 65 miles (105 km) northeast of Cozumel. The tropical depression was stationary. The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning included Cozumel. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the Cuban Provinces of Pinar del Rio and Isle of Youth.

A low pressure system over the Yucatan Peninsula exhibited more organization on Saturday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated it as Tropical Depression Ten. The circulation around Tropical Depression Ten was still organizing. There was a weak center of circulation at the surface. Radar images from western Cuba indicated that there was a stronger circulation in the middle troposphere. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center started to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Ten will be in an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical depression will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will be under an upper level ridge over the Yucatan Channel. The winds are weak in the upper level ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, much of the air moving around the western side of Tropical Depression Ten will pass over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. Some of the air in the western side of the tropical depression will pass over western Cuba. The flow of air over land will inhibit intensification, but it probably will not prevent intensification. Tropical Depression Ten could intensify slowly on Sunday.

Tropical Depression Ten will be in a region where the steering currents are weak during the next 24 hours. Tropical Depression Ten may not move much on Sunday. A high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean will start to steer the tropical depression toward the north early next week. Tropical Depression Ten is likely to strengthen when it moves over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Depression Ten will drop heavy rain over parts of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Franklin strengthened over the Atlantic Ocean south-southwest of Bermuda. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Franklin was located at latitude 23.8°N and longitude 67.5°W which put it about 610 miles (980 km) south-southwest of Bermuda. Franklin was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches Issued for South Florida and Western Cuba

The National Hurricane Center issued Tropical Storm Watches for South Florida and all of the Florida Keys on Thursday afternoon. The government of Cuba also issued Tropical Storm Watches for western Cuba. The National Hurricane Center designated former Invest 91L as Potential Tropical Cyclone One on Thursday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone One was located at latitude 21.4°N and longitude 87.5°W which put it about 75 miles (120 km) north-northwest of Cozumel, Mexico. Potential Tropical Cyclone One was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the coast of Florida from Longboat Key on the west coast to the Volusia/Brevard County Line on the east coast. A Tropical Storm Watch was also issued for all of the Florida Keys. The government of Cuba issued Tropical Storm Watches for the provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth.

The National Hurricane Center designated former Invest 91L as Potential Tropical Cyclone One in keeping with its policy on the issuance of watches and warnings. The circulation around Potential Tropical Cyclone One consisted of a broad area of low pressure. One or more smaller centers of circulation were revolving around inside the broad area of low pressure. The National Hurricane Center identified a center near the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula as the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Images from satellites and radar indicated that a middle level center of circulation might be located near the western end of Cuba. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Those thunderstorms were generating upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the low pressure system. Bands in the western half of the circulation were over the Yucatan Peninsula and those bands consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico and an upper level ridge over the Northwest Caribbean Sea will interact to produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical shear will somewhat inhibit intensification. However, the upper level ridge will also enhance the upper level divergence over Potential Tropical Cyclone One. More upper level divergence would cause the surface pressure to decrease. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm during the next 36 hours.

The upper level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico and the upper level ridge over the Northwest Caribbean Sea will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone One toward the northeast during the next several days. On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone One will approach Southwest Florida on Saturday morning. Potential Tropical Cyclone One will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to western Cuba and South Florida later this week. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Disturbance Organizes over Northwest Caribbean Sea

A tropical disturbance, designated as Invest 91L, organized over the Northwest Caribbean Sea on Wednesday. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Invest 91L was located at latitude 18.7°N and longitude 87.4°W which put it about 75 miles (120 km) east of Chetumal, Mexico. Invest 91L was moving toward the northeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A center of circulation appeared to be spinning over the Northwest Caribbean Sea just to the east of the Yucatan Peninsula on visible satellite loops on Wednesday morning. The circulation center was designated as Invest 91L. The center was inside a larger tropical disturbance over the Northwest Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Invest 91L. Bands in the western half of the system were over the Yucatan Peninsula and those bands consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms in the eastern half of Invest 91L generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical disturbance.

Invest 91L will move through an environment that will be favorable for the formation of a tropical depression during the next 36 hours. Invest 91L will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico and an upper level ridge over the Northwest Caribbean Sea will interact to produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Invest 91L. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The vertical shear will somewhat inhibit the formation of a tropical depression. However, the upper level ridge will also enhance the upper level divergence over Invest 91L. More upper level divergence would cause the surface pressure to decrease. The National Hurricane Center is indicating the probability is 80% that a tropical depression forms from Invest 91L. A reconnaissance plane is tentatively scheduled to investigate the system on Thursday, if necessary.

The upper level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico and the upper level ridge over the Northwest Caribbean Sea will steer Invest 91L slowly toward the northeast during the next several days. On its anticipated track, Invest 91L will move toward western Cuba and South Florida. Invest 91L could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to western Cuba and South Florida later this week.

Tropical Depression Agatha Drops Heavy Rain on Southern Mexico

Former Hurricane Agatha dropped heavy rain on southern Mexico on Tuesday. Agatha weakened to a tropical depression on Tuesday morning as it moved farther inland over southern Mexico. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Agatha was located at latitude 17.0°N and longitude 95.3°W which put it about 55 miles (90 km) north of Salina Cruz, Mexico. Agatha was moving toward the northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Depression Agatha dropped heavy rain on parts of Oaxaca, Chiapas, Veracruz and Tabasco on Tuesday morning. The lower levels of the circulation of former Hurricane Agatha weakened steadily on Tuesday as it moved farther inland over south Mexico. However, the circulation in the middle and upper levels of Agatha remained well organized. Microwave satellite images showed a well defined center of circulation in the middle levels. Bands of strong thunderstorms were present in the eastern half of Tropical Depression Agatha. Those bands were dropping locally heavy rain over parts of southern Mexico. Bands in the western half of Agatha’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

An upper level trough over northern Mexico will steer the middle and upper parts of Tropical Depression Agatha toward the northeast during the next 36 hours. Bands in the eastern half of Agatha will continue to drop locally heavy rain over southern Mexico, the Yuacatan Peninsula and parts of Honduras. The heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. The middle and upper parts of Tropical Depression Agatha could emerge over the Bay of Campeche or Northwestern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday or Thursday. The remnants of Agatha could contribute to the formation of a tropical cyclone or subtropical cyclone later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Likely to Form over Western Caribbean

A tropical cyclone is likely to form over the western Caribbean Sea during the next few days. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Invest 99L was located at latitude 12.5°N and longitude 75.4°W which put it about 100 miles (160 km) north of Barranquilla, Colombia. Invest 99L was moving toward the west-northwest at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A tropical cyclone is likely to form from a tropical wave, currently designated as Invest 99L, that is over the Caribbean Sea north of Colombia. There is currently no low level center of circulation in the tropical wave. Visible satellite images were providing evidence of some rotation in the middle troposphere on Wednesday afternoon. The wave is currently in an environment that is unfavorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone. The wave is over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. However, an upper level low centered near the Bahamas is producing strong southwesterly winds that are blowing across the western part of the tropical wave. Those winds are causing moderate vertical wind shear and they are inhibiting the development of the wave. Easterly winds in the lower troposphere are pushing lower section of the tropical wave quickly toward the west-northwest, which is also inhibiting development.

The tropical wave will move into an environment more favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next several days. The upper low near the Bahamas is forecast to move toward the northwest and to weaken. When the upper low weakens, the vertical wind shear will decrease around the tropical wave. In addition, the wave is forecast to move more slowly when it reaches the western Caribbean Sea. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is indicating that there is a 50% probability that a tropical depression will form from the tropical wave in the next 48 hours. NHC is indicating there is a 80% probability that a tropical wave will form during the next five days.

The tropical wave will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high will steer the tropical wave toward the west-northwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track the tropical wave will approach Nicaragua and Honduras on Thursday. The system could be near the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday evening. It could move over the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend. The conditions over the Gulf of Mexico could be favorable for intensification during the weekend. The Sea Surface Temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are near 30°C. An upper level ridge is forecast to be over the Gulf. The upper level winds will be weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. If Invest 99L is in the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend, it could strengthen to a hurricane. If it develops into a hurricane with a well formed inner core, then a period of rapid intensification could occur.

Reconnaissance planes are tentatively scheduled to begin to investigate the tropical wave on Thursday afternoon, if necessary. Invest 99L has the potential to pose a serious threat to the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Interests in Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida should monitor progress of the system.

Hurricane Grace Hits Yucatan

Hurricane Grace hit the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Grace was located at latitude 20.1°N and longitude 87.9°W which put it about 45 miles (65 km) south-southeast of Valladolid, Mexico. Grace was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cancun to Punta Herrero, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Cozumel. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo,, Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Cancun to Campeche, Mexico and from Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Rojo to Puerto de Altamira, Mexico. Tropical Storm Watches were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud and Pinar del Rio.

The center of Hurricane Grace made landfall on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula southeast of Tulum on Thursday morning. The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) at the time of landfall. Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Hurricane Grace. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of circulation. Grace will produce strong gusty winds over the Yucatan. It will also drop heavy rain and flash floods are likely to occur. Hurricane Grace will weaken gradually back to a tropical storm while it moves across the Yucatan.

Hurricane Grace will move over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday night. Grace will move into an environment favorable for intensification when it moves over the Gulf of Mexico. Grace will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move into a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Grace is likely to intensify back to a hurricane on Friday.

Hurricane Grace will move south of a subtropical high pressure system that extends over the Gulf of Mexico. The high will steer Grace toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Hurricane Grace will move across the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday. Grace will move over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday night. Hurricane Grace could approach the coast of Mexico between Veracruz and Tampico on Friday night.

Elsewhere, former Tropical Storm Fred was dropping heavy rain over parts of the northeastern U.S. and Tropical Storm Henri was moving west toward the east coast of the U.S.

At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of former Tropical Storm Fred was located at latitude 42.0°N and longitude 76.0°W which put it about 15 miles (25 km) south of Binghamton, New York. Fred was moving toward the east-northeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1011 mb. Flood Watches and Flash Flood Watches were in effect for parts of the northeastern U.S.

At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located at latitude 29.5°N and longitude 69.5°W which put it about 525 miles (845 km) southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Henri was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.