The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E on Monday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E was located at latitude 10.6°N and longitude 91.7°W which put the center about 610 miles (980 km) southeast of Punta Maldonado, Mexico. Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.
More thunderstorms developed in a low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Guatemala on Monday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) began issuing advisories on the system. NHC designated the system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E.
Thunderstorms formed near the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E. Numerous thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of the low pressure system. Thunderstorms near the center of the low pressure system began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. The low pressure system will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over Central America and the adjacent part of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E will intensify during the next 48 hours. It will strengthen to a tropical storm on Tuesday. Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E could rapidly intensify to a hurricane by Wednesday.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Central America. The high pressure system will steer the low pressure system toward the northwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E will move toward the coast of southern Mexico. It could make landfall in southern Mexico on Thursday.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E is likely to be a hurricane when it makes landfall. Watches and Warnings for portions of the coast of southern Mexico are likely to be issued on Tuesday.