Monthly Archives: October 2020

Tropical Depression 29 Forms over the Central Caribbean Sea

Tropical Depression Twentynine formed over the central Caribbean Sea on Saturday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Twentynine was located at latitude 15.0°N and longitude 73.2°W which put it about 315 miles (510 km) southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. The depression was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Visible satellite images strongly suggested that a low level center of circulation had developed in an area of thunderstorms over the central Caribbean Sea on Saturday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Twentynine. The circulation around the depression exhibited more organization. Thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms formed and began to revolve around the center. Storms near the center started to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Twentynine will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will be in a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. The depression could intensify into a tropical storm during the next 12 hours. It could strengthen into a hurricane within 48 hours.

Tropical Depression Twentynine will move south of a ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic Ocean. The ridge will steer the depression toward the west during the next couple of days. On its anticipated path the depression could approach Nicaragua and Honduras in about 48 hours. It could be a hurricane when it gets there.

Dangerous Typhoon Goni Hits Catanduanes

Extremely dangerous Typhoon Goni hit Catanduanes Island on Saturday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Goni was located at latitude 13.7°N and longitude 124.4°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) northeast of Virac, Philippines. Goni was moving toward the west-southwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 235 m.p.h. (380 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 884 mb.

The eye of Typhoon Goni moved over the southern part of Catanduanes Island on Saturday. Despite the development of concentric eyewalls and the occurrence of an eyewall replacement cycle, Goni actually strengthened on Saturday. The original inner eyewall weakened and the outer eyewall contracted around the center of Typhoon Goni. Goni exhibited an eye with a diameter of 14 miles (22 km) when it made landfall on Catanduanes Island.

The circulation around Typhoon Goni increased in size during the eyewall replacement cycle. Winds to typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Goni. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Goni was 48.0. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 64.0. Typhoon Goni was capable of causing catastrophic damage on a regional scale.

Typhoon Goni will also generate a storm surge of up to 20 feet (6 meters) along the coasts of Catanduanes Island and southeastern Luzon. Typhoon Goni will move west across the Philippines. Goni will weaken as the core passes over land. The center of Goni will make landfall in southeastern Luzon near Tabaco. The southern eyewall of Goni will produce strong winds in Legaspi. The northern eyewall will bring strong winds to Naga. Typhoon Goni could be near Manila in 18 hours and it could still be the equivalent of a major hurricane at that time. Goni will also drop locally heavy rain over southern Luzon and flash floods are likely.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Atsani was organizing slowly east of the Philippines. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Atsani was located at latitude 15.2°N and longitude 135.8°E which put it about 900 miles (1450 km) east of Luzon. Atsani was moving toward the west-northwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb. Tropical Storm Atsani was forecast to move toward the west and to strengthen.

Potentially Catastrophic Typhoon Goni Nears Luzon

Potentially catastrophic Typhoon Goni neared Luzon on Saturday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Goni was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 126.9°E which put it about 300 miles (485 km) east-northeast of Labo, Philippines. Goni was moving toward the west-southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 180 m.p.h. (290 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 220 m.p.h. (355 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 898 mb.

Typhoon Goni exhibited a double eyewall structure sometimes seen in very intense tropical cyclones. There was a small inner eye with a diameter of 6 miles (10 km). That eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that inner eyewall. A second, outer eyewall with a diameter of 35 miles (56 km) surrounded the inner core of Typhoon Goni. Storms near the core of Gone generated strong upper level divergence which pumped large quantities of mass away from the typhoon. The removal of so much mass allowed the surface pressure to remain very low. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the typhoon.

The circulation around Typhoon Goni increased in size when the double eyewalls formed. Winds to typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Goni. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Goni was 42.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 55.8. Typhoon Goni was capable of causing catastrophic damage.

Typhoon Goni will move through an environment favorable for a strong typhoon during the next 12 hours. Goni will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. An eyewall replacement cycle could cause Typhoon Goni to start to weaken. If the original inner eyewall dissipates and convergence becomes concentrated into the new outer eyewall, then the wind speed will decrease. However, Goni is likely to maintain much of its intensity until it reaches Luzon.

Typhoon Goni will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Goni toward the west. On its anticipated track Typhoon Goni will be near Cataduanes Island in 12 48 hours. Goni could be near Manila in 24 hours. Typhoon Goni is capable of causing catastrophic damage to Luzon. Goni could generate a storm surge of up to 20 feet (6 meters) along the coast of southeastern Luzon. Typhoon Goni will drop heavy rain over parts of Luzon and flash floods are likely.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Atsani moved north of Yap. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Atsani was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 138.2°E which put it about 1060 miles (1705 km) east of Luzon. Astani was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb. Tropical Storm Atsani was forecast to move toward the northwest and to strengthen.

Typhoon Goni Rapidly Intensifies Into Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Typhoon Goni intensified rapidly into the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale east of the Philippines on Thursday night. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Goni was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 131.2°E which put it about 620 miles (1000 km) east of Luzon. Goni was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 205 m.p.h. (330 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 912 mb. Typhoon Goni is capable of causing catastrophic damage.

Typhoon Goni continued to intensify rapidly on Thursday night. A small circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) was at the center of Goni. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the tight core of Typhoon Goni. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the typhoon. The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease quickly which contributed to the rapid increase in wind speed.

Typhoon Goni will move through an environment favorable for a strong typhoon during the next 36 to 48 hours. Goni will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could occur. The cycle would cause Goni to weaken when the original inner eyewall dissipates and convergence becomes concentrated into a new outer eyewall. An eyewall replacement cycle would also cause the size of the circulation around Goni to Increase.

Typhoon Goni will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Goni toward the west. On its anticipated track Typhoon Goni will approach the coast of Luzon in about 48 hours. Goni is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it approaches Luzon.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Atsani moved south of the Marianas. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Atsani was located at latitude 11.6°N and longitude 142.6°E which put it about 170 miles (275 km) south-southwest of Guam. Astani was moving toward the west-northwest at 30 m.p.h. (48 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb. Tropical Storm Atsani was forecast to move toward the northwest and to strengthen.

Typhoon Goni Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Typhoon Goni intensified rapidly into the equivalent of a major hurricane east of the Philippines on Thursday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Goni was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 132.2°E which put it about 690 miles (1115 km) east of Luzon. Goni was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 934 mb.

Typhoon Goni intensified rapidly on Thursday. A small circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Goni. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Goni. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the typhoon. The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease quickly which contributed to the rapid increase in wind speed.

The circulation around Typhoon Goni was small. Winds to typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Goni. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Goni was 29.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 6.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 36.2.

Typhoon Goni will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Goni will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Goni could intensify more during the next 24 hours. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Goni to weaken.

Typhoon Goni will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Goni toward the west. On its anticipated track Typhoon Goni will approach the coast of Luzon in about 48 hours. Goni is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it approaches Luzon.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Atsani moved south-southeast of the Marianas. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Atsani was located at latitude 10.7°N and longitude 145.3°E which put it about 245 miles (400 km) south-southeast of Guam. Astani was moving toward the northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb. Tropical Storm Atsani was forecast to move toward the northwest and to strengthen.

Goni Rapidly Intensifies to a Typhoon, Atsani Forms

Former Tropical Storm Goni intensified rapidly into a typhoon east of the Philippines on Thursday and Tropical Storm Atsani formed south-southeast of the Marianas. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Goni was located at latitude 16.7°N and longitude 134.1°E which put it about 820 miles (1320 km) east of Luzon. Goni was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Typhoon Goni intensified rapidly on Thursday. A small circular eye was at the center of Goni. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Goni. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the typhoon. The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease quickly which contributed to the rapid increase in wind speed. The circulation around Typhoon Goni was small. Winds to typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Goni. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.

Typhoon Goni will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days. Goni will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Goni could intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Goni will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Goni toward the west. On its anticipated track Typhoon Goni will approach the coast of Luzon in about 72 hours. Goni is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it approaches Luzon.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Atsani formed south-southeast of the Marianas. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Atsani was located at latitude 8.7°N and longitude 148.0°E which put it about 450 miles (720 km) south-southeast of Guam. Astani was moving toward the north-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb. Tropical Storm Atsani was forecast to move toward the northwest and to strengthen.

Tropical Storm Goni Develops Rapidly East of the Philippines

Tropical Storm Goni developed rapidly east of the Philippines on Wednesday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Goni was located at latitude 16.5°N and longitude 136.1°E which put it about 960 miles (1505 km) east of Luzon. Goni was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Goni developed rapidly. A small circular eye formed at the center of Goni. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Storm Goni. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The circulation around Goni was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Goni will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days. Goni will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Goni will strengthen to a typhoon during the next 12 hours and it could intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next several days.

Tropical Storm Goni will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Goni toward the west. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Goni will approach the coast of Luzon in about three days.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, a new tropical depression formed east-southeast of the Philippines. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression 23W was located at latitude 5.3°N and longitude 148.7°E which put it about 170 miles (280 km) west-southwest of Chuuk. The depression was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Hurricane Zeta Hits New Orleans

Hurricane Zeta hit New Orleans, Louisiana and the coast of Mississippi on Wednesday evening. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Zeta was located at latitude 31.5°N and longitude 88.7°W which put it about 45 miles (75 km) northeast of Hattiesburg, Mississippi. Zeta was moving toward the northeast at 31 m.p.h. (50 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

A Hurricane Warning remained in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Walton/Bay County Line in Florida.

Hurricane Zeta made landfall on the coast of Louisiana near Grand Isle late on Wednesday afternoon. The eye of Zeta passed over New Orleans before moving northeast into southern Mississippi. The strongest winds in Hurricane Zeta occurred in the eastern half of the circulation. A NOAA National Ocean Service (NOS) station at Shell Beach Louisiana (SHBL1) reported a sustained wind speed of 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and a wind gust of 101 m.p.h. (163 km/h). A NOAA NOS station at the Bay Waveland Yacht Club, Mississippi (WYCM6) reported a wind speed of 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and a wind gust of 103 m.p.h. (167 km/h). The National Weather Service (NWS) office at the airport in New Orleans (KMSY) reported a Peak Wind of 71 m.p.h. (115 km/h). A station in Biloxi, Mississippi (KBIX) reported a sustained wind speed of 64 m.p.h. (104 km/h) and a wind gust of 87 m.p.h. (141 km/h). A station in Mobile, Alabama (KMOB) reported a sustained wind speed of 48 m.p.h. (78 km/h) and a wind gust of 91 m.p.h. (146 km/h).

There were reports of significant storm surges along the coast of Mississippi. There were also reports of widespread power outages in southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

Hurricane Zeta will move rapidly northeastward across Alabama during the night. The center of Zeta will be over northwestern Georgia by Thursday morning. Hurricane Zeta will weaken to a tropical storm during the night, but it will be capable of causing additional power outages. Zeta will also drop locally heavy rain. Flash Flood Watches were in effect for the area from Alabama to western Virginia. Zeta will eventually merge with a cold front and make a transition to an extratropical cyclone. The extratropical cyclone could contribute to snow that will fall over the northeastern U.S.

Hurricane Zeta Strengthens to Cat. 2

Hurricane Zeta strengthened to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it neared southeast Louisiana on Wednesday afternoon. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Zeta was located at latitude 27.9°N and longitude 91.1°W which put it about 155 miles (255 km) south-southwest of New Orleans, Louisiana. Zeta was moving toward the north-northeast at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border. The Hurricane Warning included New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Walton/Bay County Line in Florida.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane found that Hurricane Zeta was continuing to intensify on Wednesday. There was a a circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) at the center of Zeta. A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms near the core of Hurricane Zeta generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the north of the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force were occurring mainly in the eastern side of Zeta. Winds in the western side of the circulation were blowing at less than hurricane force.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) on the eastern side of Hurricane Zeta. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Zeta was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 25.2. Hurricane Zeta was capable of causing localized serious damage.

Hurricane Zeta could strengthen a little more before it makes landfall. Zeta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 26°C. An upper level trough over the south central U.S. will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Hurricane Zeta. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear and Zeta could start to weaken just before it makes landfall. However, Zeta will be moving fairly quickly and it may not weaken much before it reaches the Gulf Coast.

The upper level trough will steer Hurricane Zeta toward the north-northeast during the next few hours. Zeta is likely to make landfall near Grand Isle, Louisiana. The center of Hurricane Zeta will pass very close to New Orleans and that city could experience hurricane force winds. The strongest winds will be on the eastern side of Zeta, which could also bring hurricane force winds to the coast of Mississippi. Places west of Grand Isle will experience weaker winds. Winds blowing water toward the coast could cause a storm surge of up to 8 to 12 feet (2.5 to 4 meters) along the coast of Mississippi.

Hurricane Zeta will weaken when it moves inland. Zeta will be strong enough to cause widespread power outages in southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and central and southern Alabama. Zeta will also drop locally heavy rain over parts of the southeastern U.S. Flash Flood Watches extend from southeastern Louisiana to northern Georgia, western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee.

Zeta Strengthens Back to a Hurricane

Zeta strengthened back to a hurricane on Tuesday night. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located at latitude 26.0°N and longitude 91.7°W which put it about 295 miles (470 km) south-southwest of New Orleans, Louisiana. Zeta was moving toward the north at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border. The Hurricane Warning included New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Walton/Bay County line in Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Intracoastal City to Morgan City, Louisiana.

After weakening to a tropical storm when it passed over the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday morning, Zeta intensified back to a hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday night. A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) developed at the center of the eye. The ring of thunderstorms around the eye strengthened during the night and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms near the core of Hurricane Zeta generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the north of the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force were occurring mainly in the eastern side of Zeta. Winds in the western side of the circulation were blowing at less than hurricane force.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) on the eastern side of Hurricane Zeta. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Zeta was 13.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 22.6. Hurricane Zeta was capable of causing localized serious damage.

Hurricane Zeta will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Zeta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C when it reaches the Gulf.  It will be under the western part of an upper level ridge where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Zeta is likely to intensify further during the next few hours and it could strengthen to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. An upper level trough over the south central U.S. will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Hurricane Zeta later today. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear and Zeta could weaken when it moves over the northern Gulf of Mexico. However, Zeta will be moving more quickly at that time and it may not weaken much before it reaches the Gulf Coast.

The upper level trough is likely to steer Hurricane Zeta toward the northeast as it approaches the Gulf Coast. Zeta could approach the coast of southeast Louisiana on Wednesday afternoon. Hurricane Zeta is likely to make landfall near Grand Isle, Louisiana. The center of Hurricane Zeta will pass very close to New Orleans and that city could experience hurricane force winds. The strongest winds will be on the eastern side of Zeta, which could also bring hurricane force winds to the coast of Mississippi. Places west of Grand Isle will experience weaker winds. Winds blowing water toward the coast could cause a storm surge of up to 8 to 12 feet (2.5 to 4 meters) along the coast of Mississippi.

Hurricane Zeta will weaken when it moves inland. Zeta will be strong enough to cause widespread power outages in southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and central and southern Alabama. Zeta will also drop locally heavy rain over parts of the southeastern U.S. Flash Flood Watches extend from southeastern Louisiana to northern Georgia, western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee.