Tag Archives: Marianas

Typhoon Bolaven Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Typhoon Bolaven rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Tuesday evening. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Bolaven was located at latitude 17.5°N and longitude 143.8°E which put it about 245 miles (390 km) north-northwest of Guam. Bolaven was moving toward the north-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 920 mb.

Typhoon Warnings were in effect for Rota, Tinian and Saipan. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Agrihan, Pagan and Alamagan.

Typhoon Bolaven rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane west of the Marianas on Tuesday evening. A small circular eye with a diameter of 14 miles (22 km) was at the center of Bolaven’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Bolaven. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.

The circulation around Typhoon Bolaven was very symmetrical. Winds to typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Bolaven’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bolaven was 35.0. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 46.5.

Typhoon Bolaven will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Bolaven will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Bolaven could continue to intensify during the next 24 hours. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls could form. If concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Typhoon Bolaven to weaken.

Typhoon Bolaven will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Bolaven toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the Typhoon Bolaven will stay west of the Marianas during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Bolaven Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Typhoon Bolaven rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the Western North Pacific Ocean north of Guam on Tuesday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Bolaven was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 144.3°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) northwest of Tinian. Bolaven was moving toward the north-northwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

A Typhoon Warning was in effect for Rota, Tinian and Saipan. A Typhoon Watch was in effect for Guam. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Guam.

Typhoon Bolaven brought strong winds and heavy rain to Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan. The center of Bolaven passed between Rota and Tinian and the strongest winds likely occurred in those places. A weather station in Saipan reported a sustained wind speed of 49 m.p.h. (79 km/h) and a wind gust of 68 m.p.h. (110 km/h). A weather station at Guam International Airport reported a sustained wind speed of 32 m.p.h. (52 km/h) and a wind gust of 46 m.p.h. (74 km/h). That weather station also measured 4.54 inches (115.3 mm) of rain.

Typhoon Bolaven began to intensify rapidly as it moved west of the Marianas. A small circular eye with a diameter of 14 miles (22 km) developed at the center of Bolaven’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Bolaven. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.

The size of the circulation around Typhoon Bolaven increased when it intensified on Tuesday. Winds to typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Bolaven’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bolaven was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 32.1.

Typhoon Bolaven will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Bolaven will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Bolaven will intensify during the next 24 hours. Bolaven could intensify rapidly at times. Typhoon Bolaven could strengthen to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Typhoon Bolaven will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Bolaven toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the Typhoon Bolaven will stay west of the Marianas during the next 24 hours.

Bolaven Strengthens to a Typhoon East of Guam

Former Tropical Storm Bolaven strengthened to a typhoon east of Guam on Monday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Bolaven was located at latitude 14.0°N and longitude 146.0°E which put it about 110 miles (175 km) east of Guam. Bolaven was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A Typhoon Warning was in effect for Rota, Tinian and Saipan. A Typhoon Watch was in effect for Guam. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Guam.

Former Tropical Storm Bolaven strengthened to a typhoon as it neared the Marianas on Monday night. A circular eye formed at the center of Bolaven’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Bolaven. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.

The size of the circulation around Bolaven increased when it intensified on Monday. Winds to typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Bolaven’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of circulation.

Typhoon Bolaven will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Bolaven will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Bolaven will intensify during the next 24 hours. Bolaven could intensify rapidly at times.

Typhoon Bolaven will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Bolaven toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center Typhoon Bolaven will pass near Rota in a few hours.

Typhoon Bolaven will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Rota, Tinian and Saipan. The strongest winds are likely to occur in Rota and Tinian. Bolaven will also produce gusty winds and heavy rain in Guam. The strong winds will be capable of causing damage and electricity outages are likely. Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Bolaven Moves Toward the Marianas

Tropical Storm Bolaven moved toward the Marianas on Sunday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Bolaven was located at latitude 11.1°N and longitude 149.9°E which put it about 410 miles (660 km) east-southeast of Guam. Bolaven was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Typhoon Watch was in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for Guam.

Tropical Storm Bolaven strengthened on Sunday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Bolaven’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (100 km) from the center of Bolaven.

Tropical Storm Bolaven will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Bolaven will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bolaven’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Storm Bolaven is likely to intensify to a typhoon during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Bolaven will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Bolaven toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Bolaven will move closer to the Marianas. Bolaven could reach the Marianas in less than 36 hours. Bolaven will very likely be a typhoon when it reaches the Marianas.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, former Typhoon Koinu made landfall on the coast of China west of Hong Kong on Sunday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Koinu was located at latitude 21.5°N and longitude 112.9°E which put it about 75 miles (120 km) west-southeast of Hong Kong. Koinu was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Typhoon Saola Moves Toward Hong Kong

Powerful Typhoon Saola moved across the South China Sea toward Hong Kong on Wednesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Saola was located at latitude 21.1°N and longitude 117.8°E which put it about 265 miles (430 km) east-southeast of Hong Kong. Saola was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 922 mb.

Typhoon Saola maintained its intensity near the threshold of the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale in Tuesday. A circular eye with a diameter of 18 miles (30 km) was at the center of Saola’ circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Numerous bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Saola’s circulation. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the typhoon.

The size of the circulation around Typhoon Saola remained relatively constant on Wednesday. Winds to typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Saola’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Saola was 33.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 15.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 49.2. Typhoon Saola was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Ian when Ian hit southwest Florida in 2022.

Typhoon Saola will move through an environment favorable for a powerful typhoon during the next 24 hours. Saola will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move through a region where the upper level ridge winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Saola has been in equilibrium with its environment and Saola could maintain much of its intensity during the next 24 hours unless concentric eyewalls form. If concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle would cause Saola to weaken.

Typhoon Saola will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over China. The high pressure system will steer Saola toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Typhoon Saola will closer to Hong Kong. The center of Saola could be near Hong Kong in 36 hours.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Haikui was southeast of Okinawa and Tropical Storm Kirogi developed rapidly east of the Marianas. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Haikui was located at latitude 21.4°N and longitude 132.3°E which put it about 485 miles (780 km) southeast of Okinawa. Haikui was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Kirogi was located at latitude 15.9°N and longitude 154.2°E which put it about 650 miles (1050 km) east of Guam. Kirogi was moving toward the north at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Storm Saola Forms Northeast of Luzon

Tropical Storm Saola formed over the Western North Pacific Ocean northeast of Luzon during Wednesday night. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Saola was located at latitude 20.5°N and longitude 124.5°E which put it about 250 miles (400 km) northeast of Aparri, Philippines. Saola was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A small low pressure system northeast of Luzon strengthened during Wednesday night and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Saola. The circulation around Saola was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 30 miles (50 km) in the southern side of Saola’s circulation. The winds win the northern side of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

More thunderstorms were forming near the center of Tropical Storm Saola. Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Bands of showers and thunderstorms developed around Tropical Storm Saola. The bands were beginning to revolve around the center of Saola’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Saola will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Saola will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over South Asia and Southeast Asia. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Saola’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and the wind shear will inhibit intensification. The vertical wind shear will probably not be enough to prevent intensification and Tropical Storm Saola is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Saola will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific during the next 12 hours. The high pressure system will steer Saola toward the northwest during that time period. A large counterclockwise monsoon gyre is forecast to develop east of the Philippines. The monsoon gyre will pull Saola back to the south during the next several days. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Saola is forecast to make a counterclockwise loop east of Luzon.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression 08W was east of the Marianas. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression 08W was located at latitude 16.5°N and longitude 149.2°E which put it about 225 miles (365 km) east of Anatahan. Tropical Depression 08W was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb. Tropical Depression 08W is forecast to slowly strengthen.

Guchol Strengthens to a Typhoon

Former Tropical Storm Guchol strengthened to a typhoon on Wednesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Guchol was located at latitude 16.1°N and longitude 131.6°E which put it about 670 miles (1080 km) south of Minamidiatojima, Japan. Guchol was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Guchol strengthened to a typhoon over the Western North Pacific Ocean west of the Marianas on Wednesday night. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Typhoon Guchol. A circular eye was visible on satellite images at the center of Guchol’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core or Typhoon Guchol. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon. Winds to typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Guchol. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of circulation.

Typhoon Guchol will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Guchol will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Guchol is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Guchol will move around the western part of high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Guchol toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. Guchol will move toward the northeast later this week after it passes the western end of the high pressure system. On its anticipated track Typhoon Guchol could be between Minamidaitojima and Iwo To in four days.

Tropical Storm Guchol Intensifies

Tropical Storm Guchol intensified over the Western North Pacific Ocean on Wednesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Guchol was located at latitude 15.4°N and longitude 132.8°E which put it about 715 miles (1155 km) south of Minamidiatojima, Japan. Guchol was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Storm Guchol intensified over the warm water in the Western North Pacific Ocean west of the Marianas on Wednesday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Guchol’s circulation and an eye appeared to be forming at the center. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Guchol. Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Guchol.

Tropical Storm Guchol will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Guchol will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Guchol will intensify during the next 36 hours. Guchol could strengthen to a typhoon within 18 hours.

Tropical Storm Guchol will move around the western part of high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Guchol toward the northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Guchol will move farther away from the Marianas. Guchol could be south of Minamidaitojima in four days.

Tropical Storm Guchol Forms West of Marianas

Tropical Storm Guchol formed over the Western North Pacific Ocean west of the Marianas on Tuesday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Guchol was located at latitude 114.6°N and longitude 134.6°E which put it about 785 miles (1265 km) south-southeast of Minamidiatojima, Japan. Guchol was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean west of the Marianas strengthened on Tuesday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Guchol. The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Guchol was asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring bands in the southern half of Guchol’s circulation. Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Guchol.

Tropical Storm Guchol will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Guchol will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Guchol will intensify during the next 36 hours. Guchol could strengthen to a typhoon within 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Guchol will move around the western part of high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Guchol toward the northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Guchol will move farther away from the Marianas. Guchol could be south of Minamidaitojima in five days.

Typhoon Mawar Gets Bigger and Stronger

Powerful Typhoon Mawar continued to get bigger and stronger on Thursday as it moved west of the Marianas. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Mawar was located at latitude 15.2°N and longitude 138.6°E which put it about 385 miles (625 km) west-northwest of Guam. Mawar was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 225 m.p.h. (360 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 895 mb.

Typhoon Mawar continued to intensify on Thursday as it moved over the Western North Pacific Ocean west of the Marianas. A circular eye with a diameter of 26 miles (43 km) was present at the center of Mawar’s circulation. A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Mawar. Storms near the core of Mawar’s circulation generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm in all directions. The removal of large quantities of mass caused the surface pressure to continue to decrease.

The circulation around Typhoon was large. Winds to typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Typhoon Mawar. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 205 miles (335 km) from the center of Mawar. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Mawar was 44.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 22.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 66.6. Typhoon Mawar was as strong as Hurricane Dorian was when Dorian hit the Bahamas in 2019. Mawar was much larger than Dorian was.

Typhoon Mawar will move through an environment favorable for a powerful typhoon during the next 24 hours. Mawar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the the axis of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Mawar is likely to maintain much of its intensity during the next 24 hours. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then a new eyewall replacement cycle could cause Mawar to weaken temporarily.

Typhoon Mawar will move around the southern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. T he high pressure system will steer Mawar toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Typhoon Mawar will continue to move farther away from the Marianas. Mawar could move south of the Ryukyu Islands by the end of the weekend.