Tag Archives: Tinian

Typhoon Champi Brings Wind and Rain to Guam

Typhoon Champi brought wind and rain to Guam on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Champi was located at latitude 13.2°N and longitude 144.3°E which put the center about 40 miles (65 km) south of Guam.  Champi was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 934 mb.

Typhoon Warnings are in effect for Guam and Rota,

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for Tinian and Saipan.

The core of Typhoon Champi where the strongest winds are occurring passed just to the south of Guam on Saturday.  Bands in the northern side of Champi’s circulation brought strong winds and rain to Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan.

A weather station at the Guam International Airport (PGUM) reported a sustained wind speed of 47 m.p.h. (76 km/h) and a wind gust of 72 m.p.h. (116 km/h).

A weather station at Andersen Air Force Base (PGUA) reported a sustained wind speed 0f 46 m.p.h. (74 km/h) and a wind gust of 59 m.p.h. (95 km/h).

Typhoon Champi was the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Champi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Typhoon Champi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Champi is 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 18.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 50.2.  Typhoon Champi is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Laura when Laura hit Southwest Louisiana in 2020.

Typhoon Champi will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Champi toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Champi will move away from Guam on Sunday.

Typhoon Champi will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Champi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Champi’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Typhoon Champi could intensify during the next 24 hours unless the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall.  If concentric eyewalls form and an eyewall replacement cycle occurs, Champi will weaken, at least temporarily.

Typhoon Champi Rapidly Intensified to Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Typhoon Champi rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane as it moved closer to Guam on Friday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Champi was located at latitude 12.6°N and longitude 146.7°E which put the center about 180 miles (295 km) east-southeast of Guam.  Champi was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 948 mb.

Typhoon Warnings are in effect for Guam and Rota,

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for Tinian and Saipan.

Typhoon Champi rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Friday night.  A small circular eye with a diameter of 6 miles (10 km) was at the center of Champi’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the the center of Typhoon Champi.  Storms near the center of Champi generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speed became more symmetrical when Typhoon Champi rapidly intensified.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Champi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of Typhoon Champi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Champi is 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 18.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 43.6.  Typhoon Champi is similar in intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.  Champi is bigger than Harvey was.

Typhoon Champi will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Champi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Champi’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Typhoon Champi will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Champi could strengthen to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on Saturday.

Typhoon Champi will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Champi toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Champi will reach Guam in less than 12 hours.

Typhoon Champi is could be the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane when it reaches Guam.  Champi will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan.  The strongest winds and heaviest rain are likely to affect Guam and Rota.  Typhoon Champi will be capable of causing severe damage in Guam.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan.

Champi Strengthens to a Typhoon East of Guam

Former Tropical Storm Champi strengthened to a typhoon east of Guam on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Champi was located at latitude 12.0°N and longitude 149.6°E which put the center about 375 miles (610 km) east-southeast of Guam.  Champi was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Typhoon Warnings are in effect for Guam and Rota,

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for Tinian and Saipan.

Former Tropical Storm Champi strengthened to a typhoon on Friday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Typhoon Champi.  A small circular eye formed at the center of Champi’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the the center of Typhoon Champi.  Storms near the center of Champi generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Typhoon Champi.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) in the northern half of Champi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Typhoon Champi.

Typhoon Champi will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Champi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Champi’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Typhoon Champi will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Champi could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Saturday.

Typhoon Champi will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Champi toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Champi will reach Guam in 24 hours.

Typhoon Champi is could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Guam.  Champi is likely to bring strong winds and heavy rain to Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan.  The strongest winds and heaviest rain are likely to affect Guam and Rota.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan.

Tropical Storm Champi Forms east of Guam

Tropical Storm Champi formed over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of Guam on Thursday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Champi was located at latitude 11.6°N and longitude 155.8°E which put the center about 795 miles (1285 km) east of Guam.  Champi was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Typhoon Watches are in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan.

A low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of Guam strengthened on Thursday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Champi.

Even though Tropical Storm Champi was strengthening on Thursday, the distribution of thunderstorms in Champi was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western and southern parts of Champi’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern and southern parts of Tropical Storm Champi consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Champi began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to start to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Champi was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) in the southern half of Champi’s circulation.  The winds in the northern part of Tropical Storm Champi were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Champi will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Champi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Champi’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensiciation, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Champi will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Champi could strengthen to a typhoon by Friday night.

Tropical Storm Champi will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Champi toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Champi will move toward the Marianas.  Champi could reach the Marianas in 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Champi is likely to be a typhoon when it reaches the Marianas.  Champi is likely to bring strong winds and heavy rain to Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Choi-wan Strengthens to Typhoon West of Northern Marianas

Former Tropical Storm Choi-wan strengthened to a typhoon over the Western North Pacific Ocean west of the Northern Marianas on Friday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Choi-wan was located at latitude 18.0°N and longitude 144.7°E which put the center about 80 miles (130 km) west of Alamagan.  Choi-wan was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

A Typhoon Warning is in effect for Agrihan and Pagan.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Tinian, Saipan, and Alamagan.

A Typhoon Watch is in effect for Alamagan.

Former Tropical Storm Choi-wan strengthened to a typhoon on Friday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Typhoon Choi-wan.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Choi-wan’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Choi-wan generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds in Typhoon Choi-wan was asymmetrical.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 110 miles (175 km) in the southern half of Choi-wan’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) in the northern half of Typhoon Choi-wan.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) in the southern side of Typhoon Choi-wan.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) in the northern side of Choi-wan’s circulation.

Typhoon Choi-wan will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Choi-wan Choi-wan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Choi-wan will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Choi-wan is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Choi-wan will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Choi-wan toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Choi-wan will move away from the Northern Marianas during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Choi-wan will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Alamagan, Agrihan, Pagan, and Anataham.  Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations. Choi-wan could also bring gusty winds and heavy rain to Tinian and Saipan.  Bands in the southern periphery of Typhoon Choi-wan could drop heavy rain over Guam and Rota.

Flood Watches are in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan.

Tropical Storm Choi-wan Forms East of Northern Marianas

Tropical Storm Choi-wan formed over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Northern Marianas on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Choi-wan was located at latitude 16.3°N and longitude 149.5°E which put the center about 150 miles (240 km) east of Alamagan.  Choi-wan was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Northern Marianas strengthened on Wednesday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Choi-wan.

The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Choi-wan was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of Choi-wan’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Choi-wan consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Choi-wan generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds in Tropical Storm Choi-wan were occurring in the bands of thunderstorms in the western side of Choi-wan.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the western half of Choi-wan’s circulation.  The winds in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Choi-wan were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Choi-wan will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Choi-wan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that is south of Japan.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Choi-wan’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Choi-wan will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Choi-wan could strengthen to a typhoon by the end of the week.

Tropical Storm Choi-wan will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Choi-wan toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Choi-wan will move over Alamagan, Agrihan, Pagan, and Anatahan on Thursday.

Tropical Storm Choi-wan will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Alamagan, Agrihan, Pagan, and Anataham.  Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.  Choi-wan could also bring gusty winds and heavy rain to Tinian and Saipan.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Tinian and Saipan.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Tinian and Saipan. 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Alamagan and Pagan.

A Typhoon Watch is in effect for Alamagan and Pagan.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Agrihan.

Saudel Intensifies to a Typhoon

Former Tropical Storm Saudel intensified to a typhoon east of the Marianas on Friday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Saudel was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 147.8°E which put the center about 160 miles (260 km) east-northeast of Saipan.   Saudel was moving toward the north-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

Typhoon Warnings are in effect for Pagan and Agrihan.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Alamagan.

A Typhoon Watch is also in effect for Alamagan.

Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for Tinian and Saipan.

Former Tropical Storm Saudel intensified to a typhoon on Friday morning.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Typhoon Saudel.  A circular eye formed at the center of Saudel’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Typhoon Saudel.  Storms near the center of Saudel generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the eastern half of Typhoon Saudel.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the eastern half of Saudel’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Typhoon Saudel.

Typhoon Saudel will move through an environment that will be very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Saudel will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move into a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Saudel will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Saudel is likely to intensify rapidly at times.  Typhoon Saudel is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Saudel will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Saudel toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Saudel will be near Agrihan and Pagan in less than 12 hours.

Typhoon Saudel will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Pagan and Agrihan.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods.  Saudel will also bring gusty winds and heavy rain to Alamagan. Typhoon Saudel could bring gusty winds to Tinian and Saipan.

Tropical Storm Saudel Strengthens

Tropical Storm Saudel strengthened on Thursday as it moved east of the Marianas.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Saudel was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 148.7°E which put the center about 215 miles (350 km) east of Saipan.  Saudel was moving toward the north-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Typhoon Warnings are in effect for Pagan and Agrihan.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Alamagan.

A Typhoon Watch is also in effect for Alamagan.

Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for Tinian and Saipan.

Tropical Storm Saudel strengthened on Thursday.  Even though Saudel strengthened, the distribution of thunderstorms was still asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring mainly in bands in the southern half of Saudel’s circulation.  Bands in the northern side of Tropical Storm Saudel consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Saudel generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and west of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Saudel was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the southern side of Saudel’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the northern side of Tropical Storm Saudel.

Tropical Storm Saudel will move through an environment that will become more favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Saudel will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move into a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Saudel will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Saudel could intensify rapidly at times.  Tropical Storm Saudel is likely to strengthen to a typhoon on Friday.  Saudel could intensify to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Saudel will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Saudel toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Saudel will be near Agrihan and Pagan in less than 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Saudel will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Pagan and Agrihan.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods.  Saudel will also bring gusty winds and heavy rain to Alamagan.  Tropical Storm Saudel could bring gusty winds to Tinian and Saipan.

Typhoon Bavi Batters the Marianas

Typhoon Bavi battered the Marianas on Sunday night.  The eye of Typhoon Bavi passed over Rota.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Bavi was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 144.4°E which put the center about 20 miles (30 km) northwest of Rota and about 45 miles (75 km) north of Guam.  Bavi was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 205 m.p.h. (335 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 906 mb.

Typhoon Warnings are in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for Alamagan.

Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for Pagan and Agrihan.

The eye of Typhoon Bavi passed directly over Rota.  There have been no recent reports from the weather station on Rota.  The most recent observation from Andersen Air Force Base on Guam (PGUA) reported a sustained wind speed of 74 m.p.h. (119 km/h) and a wind gust of 92 m.p.h. (148 km/h).

Typhoon Bavi was the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was at the center of Typhoon Bavi.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Bavi’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Bavi generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from typhoon.  The removal of large quantities of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Typhoon Bavi increased on Sunday.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Bavi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 310 miles (500 km) from the center of Typhoon Bavi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bavi is 40.4.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 26.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 67.2. Typhoon Bavi is similar in intensity to Hurricane Maria when Maria was at its maximum intensity in 2017.  Typhoon Bavi is bigger than Maria was.

Typhoon Bavi will more through an environment that will be favorable for a powerful typhoon during the next 24 hours.  Bavi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Bavi could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours unless another eyewall replacement cycle occurs.  If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle would cause Bavi to weaken temporarily again.

Typhoon Bavi will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bavi toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Bavi will move to the west of the Marianas during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Bavi will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Marianas on Monday.  Bavi could be capable of causing catastrophic damage.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Warnings are in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan.

Typhoon Bavi could also cause a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along the coast of the Marianas.

Typhoon Bavi Bears Down on the Marianas

Typhoon Bavi was bearing down on the Marianas on Sunday morning.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Bavi was located at latitude 13.6°N and longitude 147.6°E which put the center about 215 miles (350 km) east of Guam.  Bavi was moving toward the west-northwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 200 m.p.h. (325 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 911 mb.

Typhoon Warnings are in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for Alamagan.

Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for Pagan and Agrihan.

Typhoon Bavi went through a complete eyewall replacement cycle on Saturday.  Bavi strengthened back to its previous intensify after it completed the eyewall replacement cycle.

A new circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was at the center of Typhoon Bavi.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Bavi’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Bavi generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from typhoon.  The removal of large quantities of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Typhoon Bavi increased after the eyewall replacement cycle.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Bavi’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) from the center of Typhoon Bavi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bavi is 36.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 19.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 55.9.  Typhoon Bavi is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Maria when Maria hit Puerto Rico in 2017.

Typhoon Bavi will more through an environment that will be favorable for a powerful typhoon during the next 24 hours.  Bavi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Bavi could intensify a little more during the next 24 hours unless another eyewall replacement cycle occurs.  If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle would cause Bavi to weaken temporarily again.

Typhoon Bavi will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bavi toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Bavi will reach the Marianas in 12 hours.

Typhoon Bavi will bring very strong winds and heavy rain to the Marianas.  Bavi could be capable of causing catastrophic damage.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan.

Typhoon Bavi could also cause a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along the coast of the Marianas.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Maysak continued to move inland over southern China.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Maysak was located at latitude 23.3°N and longitude 108.8°E which put the center about 110 miles (175 km) south-southwest of Liuzhou, China.  Maysak was moving toward the north-northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.