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Nicole Strengthens to a Hurricane East of Florida

Former Tropical Storm Nicole strengthened to a hurricane east of Florida on Wednesday evening. At 7:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Nicole was located at latitude 26.6°N and longitude 78.5°W which put it about 100 miles (160 km) east of West Palm Beach, Florida. Nicole was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Boca Raton to the Flagler/ Volusia County Line, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included West Palm Beach, Ft. Pierce, Melbourne and Daytona Beach. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the Abacos, Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Boca Raton to Hallandale Beach, Florida. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Bimini. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida to the South Santee River, South Carolina. The Tropical Storm Warning includes Jacksonville, Florida and Charleston, South Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to Indian Pass, Florida. The Tropical Storm Warning included Tampa and St. Petersburg.

Former Tropical Storm Nicole intensified to a hurricane when it move over the warm water in the Gulf Stream Current on Wednesday evening. The eye of Hurricane Nicole was over Grand Bahama Island. The eye had a diameter of 30 miles (50 km). The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in the northern part of that ring. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Nicole. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease at the center of circulation.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Hurricane Nicole, but the overall circulation was very large. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 480 miles (775 km) from the center of Nicole’s circulation. Stations along the east coast of Florida reported sustained wind speeds of tropical storm force on Wednesday evening. Electricity outages were reported in several areas. Northeasterly winds were pushing water toward the coast and water level rises were reported from South Carolina to Florida. Large waves were causing significant beach erosion along the east coast of Florida.

Hurricane Nicole will continue to move through an environment that is favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Nicole will move over warm water in the Gulf Stream Current where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Nicole will extract more energy from the warmer water and it is likely to strengthen a little more during the next few hours.

Hurricane Nicole will move around the southwestern part of a surface high pressure system currently over the northeastern U.S. The high pressure system will steer Nicole toward the west-northwest during the next 12 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Nicole will make landfall on the east coast of Florida near or just to the north of West Palm Beach on Wednesday night. Nicole will be a hurricane when it reaches Florida. Hurricane Nicole will continue to bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the east coast of Florida. The winds in the northern side of Nicole will continue to blow water toward the coast of Florida and the Southeast U.S. Those winds could cause a storm surge of up to 6 feet (1.8 meters) in some locations. Large waves will keep breaking on the coast and they will cause significant beach erosion.

Hurricane Nicole will move northwest across Central Florida on Thursday. Nicole will weaken back to a tropical storm when it moves across Florida. Nicole could bring tropical storm force winds to the area around Orlando. The center of Nicole will be over northern Florida on Thursday evening. Widespread electricity outages could occur in central and northern Florida. Nicole will drop locally heavy rain over central and northern Florida, and southern Georgia. Heavy rain could cause fresh water floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Nicole Brings Wind and Rain to Northwestern Bahamas

Tropical Storm Nicole brought wind and rain to the Northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday afternoon. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located at latitude 26.5°N and longitude 77.9°W which put it about 135 miles (220 km) east of West Palm Beach, Florida. Nicole was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Boca Raton to the Flagler/ Volusia County Line, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included West Palm Beach, Ft. Pierce, Melbourne and Daytona Beach. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the Abacos, Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Boca Raton to Hallandale Beach, Florida. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Bimini. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida to the South Santee River, South Carolina. The Tropical Storm Warning includes Jacksonville, Florida and Charleston, South Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to Indian Pass, Florida. The Tropical Storm Warning included Tampa and St. Petersburg.

The center of Tropical Storm Nicole passed over Great Abaco Island in the Northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday. The center of Nicole’s circulation was just to the southeast of Grand Bahama Island on Wednesday afternoon. The inner end of a rainband wrapped completely around the center of circulation. An eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) formed at the center of Tropical Storm Nicole. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Nicole. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease at the center of circulation.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Tropical Storm Nicole, but the overall circulation was very large. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 480 miles (775 km) from the center of Nicole’s circulation. Stations along the east coast of Florida reported sustained wind speeds of tropical storm force on Wednesday afternoon. Electricity outages were reported in several areas. Northeasterly winds were pushing water toward the coast and water level rises were reported from South Carolina to Florida. Large waves were causing significant beach erosion along the east coast of Florida.

Tropical Storm Nicole will move through an environment that is favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Nicole will move over warm water in the Gulf Stream Current where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move into a region where the upper level winds are weaker and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Nicole will extract more energy from the warmer water and it is likely to intensify to a hurricane during the next few hours.

Tropical Storm Nicole will move around the southwestern part of a surface high pressure system currently over the northeastern U.S. The high pressure system will steer Nicole toward the west-northwest during the next 12 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Nicole will make landfall on the east coast of Florida near or just to the north of West Palm Beach on Wednesday night. Nicole is likely to be a hurricane when it reaches Florida. Nicole will continue to bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the east coast of Florida. The winds in the northern side of Nicole will continue to blow water toward the coast of Florida and the Southeast U.S. Those winds could cause a storm surge of up to 6 feet (1.8 meters) in some locations. Large waves will keep breaking on the coast and they will cause significant beach erosion.

Tropical Storm Nicole will move northwest across Central Florida on Thursday. Nicole could bring tropical storm force winds to the area around Orlando. The center of Nicole will be over northern Florida on Thursday evening. Widespread electricity outages could occur in central and northern Florida. Tropical Storm Nicole will drop locally heavy rain over central and northern Florida, and southern Georgia. Heavy rain could cause fresh water floods in some locations.

Subtropical Storm Nicole Strengthens

Subtropical Storm Nicole strengthened on Tuesday morning as it moved over the Western Atlantic Ocean east of the Bahamas. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Subtropical Storm Nicole was located at latitude 27.7°N and longitude 72.0°W which put it about 385 miles (615 km) east of the Northwestern Bahamas. Nicole was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini and Grand Bahama Island. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to Hallandale Beach, Florida. The Hurricane Watch included Melbourne, West Palm Beach and Ft. Lauderdale. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Andros Island, New Providence and Eleuthera. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to Hallandale Beach, Florida. The Tropical Storm Warning includes Jacksonville and Daytona Beach. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Hallandale Beach to Ocean Reef, Florida. The Tropical Storm Watch included Miami. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River, Florida.

Subtropical Storm Nicole began a transition to a tropical storm on Tuesday morning as it gradually strengthened. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Nicole’s circulation. Thunderstorms near the center of circulation is one of the characteristics of a tropical storm. There was still a large area of tropical storm force winds around Nicole, which is one of the characteristics of a subtropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out almost 400 miles (645 km) in the northern side of Subtropical Storm Nicole. Those winds were not entirely being produced by Nicole’s circulation. A large surface high pressure system was over the northeastern U.S. The high pressure system was interacting with the northern side of Nicole’s circulation to generate the large area of tropical storm force winds.

Subtropical Storm Nicole will move through an environment that is favorable for a transition to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. Nicole will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move into a region where the upper level winds are weaker and the vertical wind shear will diminish. Subtropical Storm Nicole is likely to complete the transition to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. Nicole will move over warmer water when it moves over the Gulf Stream on Wednesday. Nicole could intensify to a hurricane when it moves over the warmer water.

The surface high pressure system currently over the northeastern U.S. will block Subtropical Storm Nicole from moving toward the north. The high pressure system will steer Nicole toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Subtropical Storm Nicole will reach the Northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday morning. Nicole will move toward the west-northwest on Wednesday when it reaches the southwestern part of the high pressure system. Nicole will reach the coast of Southeast Florida on Wednesday night. Nicole could be a hurricane when it reaches Florida. Nicole is likely to bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Northwestern Bahamas and to central and northern Florida. The winds in the northern side of Nicole will blow water toward the coast of Florida and the Southeast U.S. Those winds will cause a storm surge and serious beach erosion when Nicole moves toward the coast.

Tropical Storm Talas Nears Japan

Tropical Storm Talas moved near Japan on Thursday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Talas was located at latitude 31.4°N and longitude 135.1°E which put it about 415 miles (670 km) southwest of Tokyo, Japan. Talas was moving toward the north at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The circulation around a small low pressure system just south of Honshu strengthened on Thursday night and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Talas. The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Talas was asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern and eastern parts of Talas’ circulation. Bands in the rest of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Talas. The winds in the western side of Talas were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Talas will move through an environment only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Talas will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26˚C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over eastern Asia. The upper level trough will produce strong southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Talas’ circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will be strong enough to prevent significant intensification.

The upper level trough over eastern Asia will steer Tropical Storm Talas quickly toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Talas will be near Tokyo in 18 hours. Talas will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to eastern Honshu. The small size of Talas’ circulation will limit the impact of the storm.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm 18W developed east of Luzon. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm 18W was located at latitude 18.1°N and longitude 132.1°E which put it about 640 miles (1030 km) east of Luzon. Tropical Storm 18W was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb. Tropical Storm 18W is forecast to move toward northern Luzon and to strengthen to a typhoon.

Tropical Storm Linfa Makes Landfall in Vietnam

Tropical Storm Linfa made landfall on the coast of Vietnam on Sunday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Linfa was located at latitude 15.4°N and longitude 107.4°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) east of Lamam, Laos.  Linfa was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The center of Tropical Storm Linfa made landfall on the central coast of Vietnam south of Da Nang on Sunday.  Linfa brought tropical storm force winds to the portion of the coast south of Da Nang.  Tropical Storm Linfa dropped heavy rain over central Vietnam, southern Laos and northeastern Cambodia.  Linfa is forecast to continue to move toward the west and it will be over northeastern Thailand on Monday.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Chan-hom weakened southeast of Japan and a new tropical depression formed west of the Philippines.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Chan-hom was located at latitude 31.1°N and longitude 142.2°E which put it about 300 miles (485 km) south-southeast of Tokyo, Japan.  Chan-hom was moving toward the southeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression 18W was located at latitude 17.1°N and longitude 118.3°E which put it about 700 miles (1130 km) east of Da Nang, Vietnam.  The depression was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Linfa Forms East of Vietnam

Tropical Storm Linfa formed east of Vietnam on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Linfa was located at latitude 15.0°N and longitude 109.9°E which put it about 155 miles (250 km) east-southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam.  Linfa was moving toward the west at 21 m.p.h. (34 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of a low pressure system over the South China Sea east of Vietnam and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Linfa on Saturday.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Linfa exhbited better organization.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Linfa.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Linfa.

A high pressure system over eastern Asia will steer Tropical Storm Linfa quickly toward the west during the next two days.  On its anticipated track Linfa will make landfall on the coast of Vietnam south of Da Nang in about 8 hours.  Tropical Storm Linfa will move through an environment favorable for intensification until it makes landfall.  Linfa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Linfa.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The shear will limit the rate of intensification but Linfa will strengthen before it makes landfall.

Tropical Storm Linfa will make landfall on the coast of Vietnam south of Da Nang in a few hours.  Linfa will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of central Vietnam, southern Laos, northern Cambodia and northeastern Thailand.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Chan-hom was passing south of Japan.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Chan-hom was located at latitude 32.0°N and longitude 139.8°E which put it about 215 miles (345 km) south of Tokyo, Japan.  Chan-hom was moving toward the east at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Typhoon Shanshan Brushes East Coast of Honshu

Typhoon Shanshan brushed the east coast of Honshu late on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Shanshan was located at latitude 36.8°N and longitude 141.5°E which put it about 40 miles (65 km) east of Iwaki, Japan.  Shanshan was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

The center of Typhoon Shanshan moved very close to the east coast of Honshu near Choshi on Wednesday and then it moved nearly parallel to the coast.  The stronger winds and heavier rain were occurring on the eastern side of Shanshan, and they passed east of Honshu.  The winds were weaker and the rain was lighter in the western side of Typhoon Shanshan.  Winds to tropical storm force were occurring near the east coast of Honshu.  The typhoon had little effect on the weather near Tokyo.  Some locations near the coast did have a period of heavier rain after the center of Typhoon Shanshan passed and the winds blew from the southwest toward the coast.

Typhoon Shanshan will affect the coast of Honshu for another six to twelve hours, while the center moves nearly parallel to the coast.  Shanshan will reach an area where stronger westerly winds are blowing in the middle and upper troposphere.  Those winds will turn Typhoon Shanshan toward the east and they will push it away from Japan.  The stronger winds will also cause significant vertical wind shear.  Shanshan will move over cooler water when it turns eastward.  The combination of vertical wind shear and cooler water will cause Typhoon Shanshan to weaken and it could make a transition to an extratropical cyclone in a day or two.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific, Tropical Storm Yagi formed southeast of Okinawa on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT the center of Tropical Storm Yagi was located at latitude 21.3°N and longitude 133.6°E which put it about 530 miles (855 km) southeast of Okinawa.  Yagi was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Typhoon Shanshan Moves Closer to Honshu

Typhoon Shanshan moved steadily closer to Honshu on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Shanshan was located at latitude 33.7°N and longitude 141.6°E which put it about 190 miles (305 km) southeast of Tokyo.  Shanshan was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

Typhoon Shanshan intensified earlier on Tuesday and it started to weaken on Tuesday night.  There was a circular eye at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Shanshan.  The rainbands south and east of the center were stronger and the rainbands north and west of the center were weaker.  Storms near the core of Shanshan were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 220 miles (350 km) from the center.

Typhoon Shanshan will move through an environment on Wednesday that should allow it to remain a typhoon until it reaches Japan.  Shanshan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weaker and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Shanshan will move into a region in a day or so where stronger upper level winds will blow from the west.  Vertical wind shear will increase at that time and Typhoon Shanshan will start to weaken more quickly.

Typhoon Shanshan will move around the western end of a ridge over the North Pacific Ocean and the ridge will steer the typhoon toward the north on Wednesday.  When Shanshan gets close to the coast of Honshu, the westerly winds will turn the typhoon toward the east.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Shanshan could make landfall on the coast of Honshu east of Tokyo in 18 to 24 hours.  Shanshan will bring gusty winds and it could drop heavy rain over coastal regions of eastern Honshu.

Typhoon Shanshan Moves Toward Japan

Typhoon Shanshan moved toward Japan on Monday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Shanshan was located at latitude 29.2°N and longitude 145.3°E which put it about 585 miles (940 km) southeast of Tokyo, Japan.  Shanshan was moving toward the north-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (155 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 971 mb.

Typhoon Shanshan weakened slightly during the past 24 hours.  It appeared that some drier air may have been pulled into the western half of the circulation.  There was still a circular eye at the center of circulation, but there were breaks in the ring of thunderstorms around the eye.  There were several bands of stronger storms in the eastern and southern parts of the circulation.  Bands north and west of the center of Shanshan consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms in the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.

Typhoon Shanshan will move through an environment that should allow it to remain a typhoon for several more days.  Shanshan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Drier air north and west of Typhoon Shanshan will inhibit the formation of taller thunderstorms in that part of the typhoon and the drier air will limit the potential for intensification.

Typhoon Shanshan will move around the western side of a subtropical ridge over the North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Shanshan in a general north-northwesterly direction for another two or three days.  When Typhoon Shanshan nears Honshu, an southwesterly winds on the east side of an upper level trough will start to steer the typhoon toward the northeast.  There is still uncertainty about when and where the turn toward then northeast will occur and Typhoon Shanshan could be close to Tokyo in about three days.

Shanshan Strengthens to a Typhoon Southeast of Japan

Former Tropical Storm Shanshan strengthened into a typhoon southeast of Japan on Saturday.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Shanshan was located at latitude 21.2°N and longitude 148.5°E which put it about 245 miles (395 km) northeast of Agrihan.  Shashan was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

A primary rainband wrapped around the center of circulation and an eye was developing at the center of Typhoon Shanshan.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Shanshan.  The strongest rainbands were south and east of the center of circulation.  Bands north and west of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms around the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.  Shanshan has a large circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 190 miles (305 km) from the center of circulation.

Typhoon Shanshan will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 48 hours.  Shanshan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Shanshan will intensify and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Typhoon Shanshan will move around the western portion of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Shanshan in a north-northwesterly direction.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Shanshan will pass east of Iwo To in 24 to 36 hours.  Shanshan could be just southeast of Honshu in about four days.