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Nokaen Weakens to a Tropical Depression

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Former Tropical Storm Nokaen weakened to a tropical depression over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of Luzon on Monday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of the Tropical Depression Nokaen was located at latitude 17.1°N and longitude 127.4°E which put the center about 365 miles (530 km) east-southeast of Aparri, Philippines.  Nokaen was moving toward the northeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Nokaen continued to move through an environment containing drier air on Monday.  The drier air caused most of the thunderstorms in Tropical Depression Nokaen to dissipate.  A few thunderstorms were still occurring in a band in the far northern periphery of Nokaen’s circulation.  The bands in the other parts of Tropical Depression Nokaen consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Depression Nokaen will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Nokaen will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, it will continue to be surrounded by drier air.  In addition, Tropical Depression Nokaen will move under the southern portion of the midlatitude upper level westerly winds.  Those winds will cause vertical wind shear.  The drier air and the vertical wind shear will cause the circulation around Tropical Depression Nokaen to continue to weaken.

Tropical Depression Nokaen will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Nokaen toward the east-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Nokaen will continue to move farther away from Luzon as it gradually spins down.

Tropical Storm Nokaen Weakens East of the Philippines

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Tropical Storm Nokaen weakened east of the Philippines on Sunday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of the Tropical Storm Nokaen was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 125.9°E which put the center about 310 miles (500 km) east-southeast of Casiguran, Philippines.  Nokaen was moving toward the north-northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A combination of drier air and vertical wind shear caused Tropical Storm Nokaen to weaken east of the Philippines on Sunday morning.  A large high pressure system over eastern Asia was transporting drier air into the environment around Tropical Storm Nokaen.  The drier air caused many of the thunderstorms in Nokaen’s circulation to dissipate.  An upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean was producing southerly winds that blew the tops off of many of the thunderstorms remaining in Tropical Storm Nokaen.

Most of the bands in Tropical Storm Nokaen consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds on Sunday morning.  A few new thunderstorms formed northeast of the center of Nokaen’s circulation.  The dissipation of many of the thunderstorms in Nokaen reduced the upper level divergence.   Without thunderstorms to pump mass away from Nokaen, convergence in the lower levels of the atmosphere caused the surface pressure to increase.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Nokaen remained asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the northern half of Nokaen’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out only 25 miles (40 km) in the southern half of Tropical Storm Nokaen.

Tropical Storm Nokaen will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Nokaen will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, the western end of the upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean will continue to produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Nokaen’s circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  In addition drier air will continue to surround Tropical Storm Nokaen.  Tropical Storm Nokaen is likely to continue to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Nokaen will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Nokaen toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Nokaen will move farther away from Luzon.

Tropical Storm Nokaen Passes East of Luzon

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Tropical Storm Nokaen was passing just to the east of Luzon on Saturday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of the Tropical Storm Nokaen was located at latitude 15.2°N and longitude 124.1°E which put the center about 185 miles (300 km) east-southeast of Casiguran, Philippines.  Nokaen was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Storm Nokaen strengthened a little more as it moved east of Luzon on Saturday morning.  Even though Nokaen was stronger, the distribution of thunderstorms remained asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western and northern parts of Tropical Storm Nokaen.  Bands in the eastern and southern parts of Nokaen’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Nokaen generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Nokaen was interacting with a high pressure system over eastern Asia.  The interaction was causing a large area of strong winds in the northwestern quadrant of Nokaen’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Tropical Storm Nokaen.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the other quadrants of Nokaen’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Nokaen will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Nokaen will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Nokaen’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Tropical Storm Nokaen will start to weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.

Tropical Storm Nokaen will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Nokaen toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Nokaen will remain east of Luzon.

Bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Nokaen will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Luzon.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Nokaen Nears the Philippines

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Tropical Storm Nokaen moved nearer to the Philippines on Friday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of the Tropical Storm Nokaen was located at latitude 12.4°N and longitude 126.7°E which put the center about 115 miles (185 km) east of Laoang, Philippines.  Nokaen was moving toward the west-northwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Storm Nokaen strengthened on Friday morning as it moved closer to the Philippines.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Nokaen’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Nokaen.  Bands in the eastern side of Nokaen’s circulation still consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Nokaen generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northwestern part of Tropical Storm Nokaen.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Nokaen’s circulation.  The winds in the other parts of Tropical Storm Nokaen were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Nokaen will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Nokaen will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Nokaen’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Nokaen could continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Nokaen will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Nokaen toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Nokaen will be near Samar on in 24 hours.

Bands in the western side of Nokaen’s circulation are already bringing gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Samar, Catanduanes Island, and southeastern Luzon.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Nokaen Develops East of the Philippines

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Tropical Storm Nokaen developed over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines on Thursday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of the Tropical Storm Nokaen was located at latitude 10.2°N and longitude 128.8°E which put the center about 220 miles (335 km) east of Dinagat, Philippines.  Nokaen was moving toward the northwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines strengthened on Thursday morning and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Nokaen.

Thunderstorms were occurring near the center of Tropical Storm Nokaen.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the western and northern parts of Nokaen’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern and southern parts of Tropical Storm Nokaen consisted primarily of showers and thunderstorms.  Storms near the center of Nokaen generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of winds speeds in Tropical Storm Nokaen was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) in the northern half of Nokaen’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the southern half of Tropical Storm Nokaen.

Tropical Storm Nokaen will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Nokaen will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Nokaen’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Nokaen could intensify slowly during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Nokaen will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Nokaen toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Nokaen will move closer to the central Philippines.

Bands in the western side of Nokaen’s circulation will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Samar, Cataduanes Island, and southeastern Luzon.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Koto Develops Over Sulu Sea

Tropical Storm Koto developed over the northern Sulu Sea on Tuesday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Koto was located at latitude 11.6°N and longitude 119.5°E which put the center about 55 miles (90 km) northwest of Coron, Philippines.  Koto was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A low pressure system over the northern Sulu Sea strengthened on Tuesday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Koto.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Koto exhibited more organization on Tuesday.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of Koto’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Koto.  Storms near the center of Koto generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Storm Koto was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) in the northern side of Koto’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the southern side of Tropical Storm Koto.

Tropical Storm Koto will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Koto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Koto will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Koto will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Koto toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Koto will move over northern Palawan.  Koto will move over the South China Sea on Wednesday.

Tropical Cyclone Palawan will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to northern Palawan.  Koto will also bring strong winds and heavy rain to Busuanga Island, Culion Island, Linapacan Island and the Calamian Group of islands.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flooding in some locations.

Typhoon Fung-wong Hits Luzon

Typhoon Fung-wong hit Luzon on Sunday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Typhoon Fung-wong was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 121.3°E which put the center about 25 miles (40 km) east of Bayombong, Philippines.  Fung-wong was moving toward the northwest at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 945 mb.

The center of Typhoon Fung-wong made landfall on the east coast of Luzon between Baler and Casiguran on Sunday.  Fung-wong was the equivalent of a major hurricane when it made landfall.

The circulation around Typhoon Fung-wong was large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Fung-wong’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 230 miles (370 km) from the center of Typhoon Fung-wong.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Fung-wong is 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 27.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 47.7.  Typhoon Fung-wong is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Irma when Irma hit Southwest Florida in 2017.

Typhoon Fung-wong will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fung-wong toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Fung-wong will move across northern Luzon during the next few hours.  Fung-wong will move over the South China Sea.

Typhoon Fung-wong will bring strong, gusty winds and very heavy rain to Luzon.  Heavy rain will cause widespread flash floods.  Fung-wong will cause widespread electricity outages.  Typhoon Fung-wong could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along portions of the coast of Luzon.

Typhoon Fung-wong will move into an environment that will be less favorable for intensification when it moves over the South China Sea.  Fung-wong will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over eastern China.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, drier air from Asia has spread over the South China Sea.  The drier air will gradually get pulled into the circulation around Fung-wong.  The drier air is likely to cause Typhoon Fung-wong to weaken slowly when it moves over the South China Sea.

Typhoon Fung-wong Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Typhoon Fung-wong intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane east of the Philippines on Saturday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Typhoon Fung-wong was located at latitude 14.0°N and longitude 125.8°E which put the center about 190 miles (305 km) east of Daet, Philippines.  Fung-wong was moving toward the west-northwest at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

A circular eye was present at the center of Fung-wong’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolving around the core of Fung-wong’s circulation.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Typhoon Fung-wong was very large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 110 miles (175 km) in the northern half of Fung-wong’s circulation.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the southern side of Typhoon Fung-wong.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 375 miles (605 km) in the northern side of Fung-wong’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 230 miles (370 km) in the southern half of Typhoon Fung-wong.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Fung-wong is 23.6.  The Hurricane Size index (HSI) is 37.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) 60.9.  Typhoon Fung-wong is similar in intensity to Hurricane Katrina when Katrina hit Mississippi in 2005.  Fung-wong is larger than Katrina was.

Typhoon Fung-wong will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Fung-wong will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is east of the Philippines.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  There is drier air to the north and west of Typhoon Fung-wong.  However, that drier air is not likely to be pulled into the typhoon during the next 12 hours.  Typhoon Fung-wong could intensify during the next 12 hours.

Typhoon Fung-wong will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fung-wong toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Fung-wong will hit northern Luzon in 18 hours.

Typhoon Fung-wong will be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Luzon.  Fung-wong will bring strong, gusty winds and very heavy rain to Luzon.  Heavy rain will cause widespread flash floods.  Typhoon Fung-wong could also cause a storm surge of up to 14 fee (4 meters) along portions of the coast of Luzon.

Fung-wong Strengthens to a Typhoon

Former Tropical Storm Fung-wong strengthened to a typhoon east of the Philippines on Friday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Typhoon Fung-wong was located at latitude 12.1°N and longitude 134.6°E which put the center about 325 miles (525 km) north of Palau.  Fung-wong was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Fung-wong strengthened to a typhoon on Friday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Typhoon Fung-wong.  Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Fung-wong’s circulation.  Bands in the northern half of Fung-wong consisted primarily of showers and thunderstorms.  Storms near the center of Fung-wong generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Typhoon Fung-wong was large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Fung-wong’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) in the northern side of Typhoon Fung-wong.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) in the southern half of Fung-wong’s circulation.

Typhoon Fung-wong will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fung-wong will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is east of the Philippines.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  There is drier air to the north and west of Typhoon Fung-wong.  However, that drier is will not be pulled into the typhoon during the next day or so.  Typhoon Fung-wong will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Fung-wong is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the weekend.

Typhoon Fung-wong will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fung-wong toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Fung-wong will be northeast of Samar in 24 hours.  Fung-wong will reach northern Luzon in 48 hours.

Typhoon Fung-wong will be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Luzon.  Fung-wong will bring strong, gusty winds and heavy rain to Luzon.  Heavy rain will cause widespread flash floods.  Typhoon Fung-wong could also cause a storm surge of up to 14 fee (4 meters) along portions of the coast of Luzon.

Typhoon Kalmaegi Moves over the Sulu Sea

Typhoon Kalmaegi moved over the Sulu Sea on Tuesday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Kalmaegi was located at latitude 10.5°N and longitude 121.3°E which put the center about 130 miles (210 km) east-southeast of Taytay, Philippines.  Kalmaegi was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Typhoon Kalmaegi weakened as it moved across the central Philippines on Monday.  An eye was no longer visible on satellite images.  Thunderstorms were still occurring near the center of Kalmaegi’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the southern half of Typhoon Kalmaegi.  Bands in the northern half of Kalmaegi’s circulation contained fewer thunderstorms.  Storms near the center of Kalmaegi still generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the typhoon.  However, there was more mass converging in the lower levels of the atmosphere than there was mass diverging in the upper levels.  So, the surface pressure was increasing.

The size of the circulation around Typhoon Kalmaegi decreases as Kalmaegi weakened.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Kalmaegi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (170 km) from the center of Typhoon Kalmaegi.

Typhoon Kalmaegi will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Kalmaegi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Kalmaegi’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Typhoon Kalmaegi could start to intensify again during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Kalmaegi will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Kalmaegi toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Kalmaegi will pass near northern Palawan in a few hours.  Kalmaegi will move over the South China Sea on Tuesday night.

Typhoon Kalmaegi will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to northern Palawan and the Calamian Group of islands.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression 32W formed south of the Marianas.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression 32W was located at latitude 9.5°N and longitude 142.7°E which put the center about 285 miles (460 km) south-southwest of Guam.  The tropical depression was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.  It is forecast to strengthen.