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Typhoon Ewiniar Moves Away From Luzon

Typhoon Ewiniar moved away from Luzon on Monday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Ewiniar was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 124.3°E which put it about 185 miles (300 km) east of Tuguegarao, Philippines. Ewiniar was moving toward the northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 966 mb.

After intensifying rapidly on Sunday, Typhoon Ewiniar showed signs of weakening on Monday. A small eye with a diameter of 5 miles (8 km) was still present at the center of Ewiniar’s circulation. However, there were breaks in the ring of thunderstorms surrounding the eye. Storms near the center of Ewiniar still were generating upper level divergence that was pumping mass away from the typhoon. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Typhoon Ewiniar.

The circulation around Typhoon Ewiniar was small. Winds to typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Ewiniar’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of circulation.

Typhoon Ewiniar will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ewiniar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. An upper level trough near the east coast of China will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ewiniar’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Since the circulation around Ewiniar is small, an increase in wind shear will have a larger effect on the typhoon. Typhoon Ewiniar is likely to weaken during the next 24 hours when the vertical wind shear increases.

Typhoon Ewiniar will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system and the upper level trough near the east coast of China will steer Ewiniar toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Typhoon Ewiniar will continue to move farther away from Luzon. Ewiniar will pass southeast of the Ryukyu Islands during the next few days.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Remal continued to drop heavy rain on Bangladesh. There were reports that Remal caused fatalities in Bangladesh. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Remal was located at latitude 23.1°N and longitude 89.2°E which put it about 85 miles (140 km) southwest of Dhaka, Bangladesh. Remal was moving toward the north-northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Ewiniar Rapidly Intensifies to a Typhoon East of Luzon

Former Tropical Storm Ewiniar rapidly intensified to a typhoon east of Luzon on Sunday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Ewiniar was located at latitude 15.2°N and longitude 122.5°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) east-northeast of Manila, Philippines. Ewiniar was moving toward the northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 966 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Ewiniar rapidly intensified to a typhoon after it moved east of Luzon on Sunday. A very small eye with a diameter of 5 miles (8 km) formed at the center of Typhoon Ewiniar. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Ewiniar’s circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Typhoon Ewiniar was small. Winds to typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Ewiniar’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.

Typhoon Ewiniar will move through an environment that will be very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ewiniar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31°C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ewiniar’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the southwest and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Ewiniar is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours. Ewiniar could continue to intensify rapidly. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could interrupt the intensification.

Typhoon Ewiniar will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is east of the Philippines. The high pressure system will steer Ewiniar toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Typhoon Ewiniar will move farther away from Luzon during the next 24 hours. Ewiniar will pass southeast of the Ryukyu Islands during the early part of next week.

Typhoon Ewiniar will continue to produce strong winds and locally heavy rain in Luzon until it moves farther to the northeast. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Ewiniar Strengthens Near Manila

Tropical Storm Ewiniar strengthened near Manila on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Ewiniar was located at latitude 14.3°N and longitude 121.4°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) southeast of Manila, Philippines. Ewiniar was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Former Tropical Depression 01W strengthened over southern Luzon on Saturday night and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Ewiniar. The circulation around Tropical Storm Ewiniar was very symmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring near the center of Ewiniar’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center of Ewiniar generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Ewiniar was relatively small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Ewiniar’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Ewiniar will move through an environment that will be mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ewiniar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31°C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Ewiniar’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Even though part of the circulation around Tropical Storm Ewiniar will pass over Luzon, Ewiniar is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Ewiniar will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is east of the Philippines. The high pressure system will steer Ewiniar toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Ewiniar will move along the east coast of Luzon during the next 24 hours. Ewiniar will start to move toward the northeast on Monday after is moves around the western end of the high pressure system.

Tropical Storm Ewiniar will continue to produce strong winds and locally heavy rain in Luzon during the next 24 hours. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Ewiniar could also produce a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the east coast of Luzon where the wind blows the water toward the shore.

Tropical Depression 01W Brings Wind and Rain to Samar

Tropical Depression 01W brought wind and rain to Samar in the Philippines on Friday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression 01W was located at latitude 11.6°N and longitude 125.1°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) northeast of Tacloban, Philippines. The tropical depression was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A low pressure system over Samar in the Philippines strengthened on Friday. Both the Japan Meteorological Agency and the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center classified the system as a tropical depression. The center of Tropical Depression 01W was over Samar. Thunderstorms were occurring near the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Depression 01W. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression 01W will move through an environment that will be mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31°C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical depression. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. Even though Tropical Depression 01W will move through a mostly favorable environment, it will not intensify until the center moves back over water.

Tropical Depression 01W will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is east of the Philippines. The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression 01W will move across Samar during the next few hours. It will move across southeastern Luzon on Saturday.

Tropical Depression 01W will continue to drop heavy rain on Samar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. The tropical depression will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to southeastern Luzon and Catanduanes Island on Saturday. Flash floods could also occur in those locations. Tropical Depression 01W will also cause rough seas in the areas around Samar and southeastern Luzon.

Jelawat Brings Wind and Rain to Mindanao

Former Tropical Storm Jelawat brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Mindanao on Sunday night. Jelawat weakened to a tropical depression after the center moved over Mindanao. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Jelawat was located at latitude 7.2°N and longitude 126.0°E which put it about 70 miles (110 km) east of Davao City, Philippines. Jelawat was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

The center of former Tropical Storm Jelawat made landfall on the coast of Mindanao between Baganga and Manay on Sunday evening. The maximum sustained wind speed in Jelawat was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). Bands of showers and thunderstorms in the western side of Jelawat’s circulation were dropping heavy rain over parts of Mindanao, Former Tropical Storm Jelawat weakened to a tropical depression when the center of circulation moved over mountains in eastern Mindanao.

Tropical Depression Jelawat will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean and East Asia. The high pressure system will steer Jelawat toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Depression Jelawat will move across Mindanao. Jelawat will continue to drop heavy rain over Mindanao. Heavy rain will likely cause flash floods in some location. Tropical Depression Jelawat will also cause gusty winds in the Davao Gulf, the Moro Gulf and the Bohol Sea.

Tropical Storm Jelawat Develops East of Mindanao

Tropical Storm Jelawat developed east of Mindanao on Saturday night. At 7:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Jelawat was located at latitude 7.5°N and longitude 129.2°E which put it about 180 miles (290 km) east of Baganga, Philippines. Jelawat was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A tropical depression that formed on Saturday morning strengthened, and the Japan Meteorological Agency upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Jelawat. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western and northern sides of Tropical Storm Jelawat. Bands in the eastern and southern parts of the Jelawat’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Jelawat was interacting with a large high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean and East Asia. The pressure gradient between the high pressure system and Jelawat’s circulation was producing a large area of tropical storm force winds in the western side of Jelawat. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) in the western side of Jelawat. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 170 miles (280 km) in the eastern side of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Jelawat will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Jelawat will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Jelawat’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Jelawat could intensify a little more, if the upper level winds do not get any stronger. When the upper level winds get stronger, then Jelawat will weaken.

Tropical Storm Jelawat will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean and East Asia. The high pressure system will steer Jelawat toward the west. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Jelawat will reach Mindanao in 18 hours. Jelawat will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Mindanao. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Depression Forms East of the Philippines

A tropical depression formed over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines on Saturday morning. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of a tropical depression was located at latitude 7.4°N and longitude 131.5°E which put it about 335 miles (540 km) east of Baganga, Philippines. The tropical depression was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of a low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of Mindanao on Saturday morning and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as a tropical depression. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western and northern sides of the tropical depression. Bands in the eastern and southern parts of the depression’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical depression.

The tropical depression will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the depression’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be enough to stop intensification. The tropical depression could strengthen to a tropical storm, if the upper level winds do not get any stronger.

The tropical depression will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean and East Asia. The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the west. On its anticipated track the tropical depression will reach Mindanao in less than 24 hours. The tropical depression will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Mindanao. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Powerful Typhoon Saola Moves Between Taiwan and Luzon

Powerful Typhoon Saola moved between Taiwan and Luzon on Tuesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Saola was located at latitude 20.3°N and longitude 120.7°E which put it about 160 miles (260 km) south-southeast of Kaohsiung, Taiwan. Saola was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 922 mb.

Typhoon Saola intensified to the threshold of the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale in Tuesday. A circular eye with a diameter of 15 miles (24 km) was at the center of Saola’ circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Saola’s circulation. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the typhoon.

The size of the circulation around Typhoon Saola increased when Saola intensified on Tuesday. Winds to typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Saola’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Saola was 33.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 49.5. Typhoon Saola was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Ian when Ian hit southwest Florida in 2022.

Typhoon Saola will move through an environment favorable for a powerful typhoon during the next 24 hours. Saola will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level ridge winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Saola could maintain much of its intensity during the next 24 hours unless concentric eyewalls for again. If concentric eyewalls form again, then an eyewall replacement cycle would cause Saola to weaken.

Typhoon Saola will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over China. The high pressure system will steer Saola toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Typhoon Saola will move over the South China Sea. Saola could be near Hong Kong later this week.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Haikui was southwest of Iwo To. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Haikui was located at latitude 20.2°N and longitude 135.7°E which put it about 457 miles (755 km) southwest of Iwo To. Haikui was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Typhoon Saola Moves Back Toward Northern Luzon

Typhoon Saola moved back toward northern Luzon on Monday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Saola was located at latitude 18.8°N and longitude 123.3°E which put it about 115 miles (185 km) east-northeast of Aparri, Philippines. Saola was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 951 mb.

Two concentric eyewalls formed in the core of Typhoon Saola on Monday. A small eye was at the center of Saola’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. A second, slightly larger ring of storms surrounded the inner eyewall. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the concentric eyewalls. Storms in the eyewalls generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.

The circulation around Typhoon Saola was small even with the two concentric eyewalls. Winds to typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Saola’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Saola was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 30.1. Typhoon Saola was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Typhoon Saola will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Saola will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move through a region where the upper level ridge winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Saola could intensify during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Saola will move around the southwestern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Saola toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Typhoon Saola will move between Luzon and Taiwan in 24 hours.

Typhoon Saola will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the islands north of Luzon. Saola could also drop heavy rains over parts of northern Luzon. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Damrey moved quickly away from Japan and Tropical Storm Haikui formed south of Iwo To. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Damrey was located at latitude 41.2°N and longitude 152.3°E which put it about 285 miles (460 km) east-southeast of Hamanaka, Japan. Damrey was moving toward the east at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Haikui was located at latitude 19.2°N and longitude 137.6°E which put it about 450 miles (725 km) south-southwest of Iwo To. Haikui was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Typhoon Saola Churns East of Luzon

Typhoon Saola continued to churn over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of Luzon on Sunday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Saola was located at latitude 17.0°N and longitude 124.4°E which put it about 200 miles (320 km) east-southeast of Aparri, Philippines. Saola was moving toward the northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 941 mb.

Microwave satellite images showed that the inner end of a rainband was wrapping around the existing eye and eyewall at the center of Typhoon Saola. If the inner end of the rainband wraps completely around the existing eye and eyewall, then a second, larger outer eyewall would form. The formation of two concentric eyewalls would mark the start of an eyewall replacement cycle. An eyewall replacement cycle would cause Typhoon Saola to weaken.

There was still a small circular eye at the center of Typhoon Saola. The small eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms near the center of Saola’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.

The circulation around Typhoon Saola was small. Winds to typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Saola’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Saola was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 6.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 32.0. Typhoon Saola was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dennis when Dennis hit Northwest Florida in 2005.

Typhoon Saola will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Saola will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move through a region where the upper level ridge winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, an eyewall replacement cycle is likely to cause Typhoon Saola to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Saola will move around the southwestern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Saola back toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Typhoon Saola will move parallel to the coast of northeastern Luzon. Saola could move toward southern Taiwan later this week.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Damrey was passing east of Japan. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Damrey was located at latitude 38.9°N and longitude 145.3°E which put it about 225 miles (360 km) southeast of Misawa, Japan. Damrey was moving toward the north-northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.