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Tropical Storm Noul Forms East of Northern Luzon

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Tropical Storm Noul formed over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of northern Luzon on Thursday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Noul was located at latitude 18.6°N and longitude 124.4°E which put the center about 180 miles (290 km) east of Aparri, Philippines.  Noul was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of northern Luzon strengthened on Thursday afternoon and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Noul.

More thunderstorms were forming near the center of Tropical Storm Noul.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the western half of Noul’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Noul consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storm near the center of Noul began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Noul was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) in the southern side of Noul’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the northern side of Tropical Storm Noul.

Tropical Storm Noul will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Noul will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that is centered east of China.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Noul’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Noul will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Noul is likely to strengthen to a typhoon by the weekend.

Tropical Storm Noul will move around the southern part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Noul toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Noul will pass south of Taiwan on Friday.  Noul is likely to hit southeastern China during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Noul will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to northern Luzon.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods.  Noul will also bring strong winds and heavy rain to Taiwan.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods.  Tropical Storm Noul is likely to be a typhoon when it hits southeastern China.

Typhoon Mekkhala Strengthens to Equivalent of Cat. 4 Hurricane

Typhoon Mekkhala strengthened to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Monday as it moved over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of northern Luzon.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Mekkhala was located at latitude 18.3°N and longitude 125.9°E which put the center about 305 miles (490 km) east of Aparri, Philippines.  Mekkhala was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 937 mb.

Typhoon Mekkhala strengthened to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Monday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was present at the center of Typhoon Mekkhala.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Mekkhala’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Mekkhala generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of winds speeds in Typhoon Mekkhala was fairly symmetrical.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Mekkhala’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Typhoon Mekkhala.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Mekkhala is 29.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 10.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 39.9.  Typhoon Mekkhala is similar in intensity to Hurricane Charley when Charley hit Southwest Florida in 2004.  Mekkhala is a little larger than Charley was.

Typhoon Mekkhala will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Mekkhala will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is southwest of Japan. The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Mekhala could intensify during the next 24 hours unless the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall.  If concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle would cause Mekkhala to weaken.  Typhoon Mekkhala could strengthen to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane, if there is no eyewall replacement cycle.

Typhoon Mekkhala will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Mekkhala toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Mekkhala will move toward the southern Ryukyu Islands.  Mekkhala could approach the southern Ryukyu Islands in 60 hours.

Typhoon Mekkhala Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Typhoon Mekkhala rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Mekkhala was located at latitude 17.7°N and longitude 127.4°E which put the center about 415 miles (670 km) east-southeast of Aparri, Philippines.  Mekkhala was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

Typhoon Mekkhala rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Mekkhala’s circulation.  A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) formed at the center of Typhoon Mekkhala.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Mekkhala’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Mekkhala generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of winds speeds in Typhoon Mekkhala became more symmetrical on Sunday.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Mekkhala’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Typhoon Mekkhala.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Mekkhala is 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 10.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 30.6.  Typhoon Mekkhala is similar in intensity to Hurricane Delta when Delta hit Southwest Louisiana in 2020.  Mekkhala is a little smaller than Delta was.

Typhoon Mekkhala will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Mekkhala will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is southwest of Japan.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Mekhala will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Mekkhala could continue to intensify rapidly during the next few hours.

Typhoon Mekkhala will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Mekkhala toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Mekkhala will move closer to northern Luzon. Mekkhala is likely to move more slowly in a couple of days when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.  Typhoon Mekkhala is also likely to move toward the north when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system

Mekkhala Strengthens to a Typhoon

Former Tropical Storm Mekkhala strengthened to a typhoon over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of Luzon on Saturday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Mekkhala was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 131.3°E which put the center about 710 miles (1145 km) east-southeast of Aparri, Philippines.  Mekkhala was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Mekkhala strengthened to a typhoon on Saturday night.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern side of Mekkhala’s circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Typhoon Mekkhala.  Storms near the center of Mekkhala generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Typhoon Mekkhala.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the northern half of Mekkhala’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) in the northern side of Typhoon Mekkhala.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 40 miles (65 km) in the southern half of Mekkhala’s circulation.

Typhoon Mekkhala will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Mekkhala will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that is southwest of Japan. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Mekkhala’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Typhoon Mekhala will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Mekkhala could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next few days.

Typhoon Mekkhala will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Mekkhala toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Mekkhala will move toward northern Luzon.  Mekkhala is likely to move more slowly in a couple of days when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.

Tropical Storm Penha Brings Wind and Rain to Southern Philippines

Tropical Storm Penha brought wind and rain to the southern Philippines on Thursday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Penha was located at latitude 8.7°N and longitude 126.4°E which put the center about 20 miles (30 km) east of Lianga, Philippines.  Penha was moving toward the west-northwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

Tropical Storm Penha brought wind and rain to the southern Philippines on Thursday.  Bands in the western side of Penha’s circulation were dropping rain on northern Mindanao, Leyte, Samar, Bohol, Cebu, and Negros.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

The area of strongest winds in Tropical Storm Penha was relatively small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Penha’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Penha will move around the southern part of the high pressure system that is south of Japan.  The high pressure system will steer Penha toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Penha will move across northern Mindanao during the next few hours.  Penha will reach the Bohol Sea in 12 hours.  Tropical Storm Penha will be over the northern Sulu Sea in 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Penha will move into an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Tropical Storm Penha will weaken while the center moves over northern Mindanao.   Penha will then move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce strong southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Penha’s circulation.  The winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  In addition, Penha will move into a region of drier air by the time it reaches the northern part of the Sulu Sea.  The strong vertical wind shear and the drier air will cause Tropical Storm Penha to continue to weaken even when the center gets back of water.

 

Depression Strengthens to Tropical Storm Penha

A tropical depression over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of Mindanao strengthened to Tropical Storm Penha on Wednesday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Penha was located at latitude 8.6°N and longitude 131.0°E which put the center about 330 miles (530 km) west of Tandag, Philippines.  Penha was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A tropical depression east of Mindanao strengthened on Wednesday morning and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Penha.

The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Penha was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern and western parts of Penha’s circulation.  Bands in the southern and eastern parts of Tropical Storm Penha consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Penha generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and west of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease slowly.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Penha was interacting with a large high pressure system that was south of Japan.  The interaction with the high pressure system was causing the distribution of wind speeds in Penha to be asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the northern side of Tropical Storm Penha.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the southern half of Penha’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Penha will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Penha will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Penha’s circulation.  The winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Penha could intensify slowly during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Penha will move around the southern part of the high pressure system that is south of Japan.  The high pressure system will steer Penha toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Penha will reach Mindanao in 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Penha will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Mindanao and the rest of the southern Philippines.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Depression Forms East of the Philippines

A tropical depression formed over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines on Tuesday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of the tropical depression was located at latitude 9.1°N and longitude 135.0°E which put the center about 125 miles (200 km) north of Palau.  The tropical depression was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines strengthened on Tuesday morning and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as a tropical depression.

The circulation around the tropical depression was gradually getting more organized.  More thunderstorms were developing in bands revolving around the center of the tropical depression.  Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

The tropical depression will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the depression’s circulation.  The winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  The tropical depression is likely to intensify to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

Th tropical depression will move around the southern part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the tropical depression will move toward the southern Philippines.

 

Nokaen Weakens to a Tropical Depression

Former Tropical Storm Nokaen weakened to a tropical depression over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of Luzon on Monday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of the Tropical Depression Nokaen was located at latitude 17.1°N and longitude 127.4°E which put the center about 365 miles (530 km) east-southeast of Aparri, Philippines.  Nokaen was moving toward the northeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Nokaen continued to move through an environment containing drier air on Monday.  The drier air caused most of the thunderstorms in Tropical Depression Nokaen to dissipate.  A few thunderstorms were still occurring in a band in the far northern periphery of Nokaen’s circulation.  The bands in the other parts of Tropical Depression Nokaen consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Depression Nokaen will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Nokaen will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, it will continue to be surrounded by drier air.  In addition, Tropical Depression Nokaen will move under the southern portion of the midlatitude upper level westerly winds.  Those winds will cause vertical wind shear.  The drier air and the vertical wind shear will cause the circulation around Tropical Depression Nokaen to continue to weaken.

Tropical Depression Nokaen will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Nokaen toward the east-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Nokaen will continue to move farther away from Luzon as it gradually spins down.

Tropical Storm Nokaen Weakens East of the Philippines

Tropical Storm Nokaen weakened east of the Philippines on Sunday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of the Tropical Storm Nokaen was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 125.9°E which put the center about 310 miles (500 km) east-southeast of Casiguran, Philippines.  Nokaen was moving toward the north-northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A combination of drier air and vertical wind shear caused Tropical Storm Nokaen to weaken east of the Philippines on Sunday morning.  A large high pressure system over eastern Asia was transporting drier air into the environment around Tropical Storm Nokaen.  The drier air caused many of the thunderstorms in Nokaen’s circulation to dissipate.  An upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean was producing southerly winds that blew the tops off of many of the thunderstorms remaining in Tropical Storm Nokaen.

Most of the bands in Tropical Storm Nokaen consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds on Sunday morning.  A few new thunderstorms formed northeast of the center of Nokaen’s circulation.  The dissipation of many of the thunderstorms in Nokaen reduced the upper level divergence.   Without thunderstorms to pump mass away from Nokaen, convergence in the lower levels of the atmosphere caused the surface pressure to increase.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Nokaen remained asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the northern half of Nokaen’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out only 25 miles (40 km) in the southern half of Tropical Storm Nokaen.

Tropical Storm Nokaen will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Nokaen will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, the western end of the upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean will continue to produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Nokaen’s circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  In addition drier air will continue to surround Tropical Storm Nokaen.  Tropical Storm Nokaen is likely to continue to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Nokaen will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Nokaen toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Nokaen will move farther away from Luzon.

Tropical Storm Nokaen Passes East of Luzon

Tropical Storm Nokaen was passing just to the east of Luzon on Saturday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of the Tropical Storm Nokaen was located at latitude 15.2°N and longitude 124.1°E which put the center about 185 miles (300 km) east-southeast of Casiguran, Philippines.  Nokaen was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Storm Nokaen strengthened a little more as it moved east of Luzon on Saturday morning.  Even though Nokaen was stronger, the distribution of thunderstorms remained asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western and northern parts of Tropical Storm Nokaen.  Bands in the eastern and southern parts of Nokaen’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Nokaen generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Nokaen was interacting with a high pressure system over eastern Asia.  The interaction was causing a large area of strong winds in the northwestern quadrant of Nokaen’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Tropical Storm Nokaen.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the other quadrants of Nokaen’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Nokaen will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Nokaen will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Nokaen’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Tropical Storm Nokaen will start to weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.

Tropical Storm Nokaen will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Nokaen toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Nokaen will remain east of Luzon.

Bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Nokaen will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Luzon.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.