Tag Archives: Palawan

Typhoon Rai Moves over South China Sea

Typhoon Rai moved over the South China Sea on Friday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Typhoon Rai was located at latitude 10.9°N and longitude 116.6°E which put it about 175 miles (285 km) west-northwest of Puerto Princesa, Philippines. Rai was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Typhoon Rai strengthened back to the equivalent of a major hurricane after it moved across Palawan and over the South China Sea. An eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) developed at the center of Rai’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Rai. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west and north of the typhoon.

Winds to typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Typhoon Rai. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 165 miles (270 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Rai was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.4 and the Hurricane Wind intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 37.0. Rai was capable of causing regional major damage.

Typhoon Rai will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Rai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Typhoon Rai’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear but the wind shear will be too small to prevent intensification. Typhoon Rai could strengthen again during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Rai will move south of a surface high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean during the next day or so. The high pressure system will steer Rai toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. Rai will move more toward the northwest when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system. On its anticipated track Typhoon Rai could approach the coast of Vietnam in 36 hours.

Typhoon Rai Brings Wind and Rain to the Southern Philippines

Typhoon Rai brought wind and rain to the southern Philippines on Thursday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Typhoon Rai was located at latitude 10.0°N and longitude 120.4°E which put it about 140 miles (225 km) east of Puerto Princesa, Philippines. Rai was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Typhoon Rai brought strong winds and heavy rain as it moved across the southern Philippines on Thursday. The core of Typhoon Rai affected Siarago Island, Dinagat Island, northern Mindanao, southern Leyte, Bohol, Cebu, Negros and southern Panay Island. There were reports of wind damage, power outages and flash floods across the southern Philippines.

Typhoon Rai moved over the Sulu Sea on Thursday night and its structure remained well organized. A circular eye was present at the center of Rai’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Rai. Storms near the core of Rai generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west and north of the typhoon.

Winds to typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Typhoon Rai. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 155 miles (245 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Rai was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.9 and the Hurricane Wind intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.5. Rai was capable of causing regional major damage.

Although Typhoon Rai weakened when the center passed over the islands of the southern Philippines, it will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong typhoon as it moves over the Sulu Sea. Rai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Typhoon Rai’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear but the wind shear will be too small to cause much weakening. Typhoon Rai is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours. Rai could strengthen when it moves over the South China Sea during the weekend.

Typhoon Rai will move south of a surface high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Rai toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the core of Typhoon Rai will move across Palawan during the next 12 hours. Rai will be capable of causing major damage. It will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Palawan on Friday. Typhoon Rai will move over the South China Sea during the weekend. Rai could approach Vietnam by the end of the weekend.

Typhoon Rai Hits the Southern Philippines

Powerful Typhoon Rai hit the southern Philippines on Thursday morning. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Typhoon Rai was located at latitude 10.0°N and longitude 125.3°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) southeast of Maasin, Philippines. Rai was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 927 mb.

The center of powerful Typhoon Rai made landfall on Siargao Island on Thursday morning. The core of Rai’s circulation moved over Dinagat Island and northern Mindanao. The center of Typhoon Rai was over the Bohol Sea just to the south of Leyte. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the original eye and eyewall of Typhoon Rai as it hit the southern Philippines. Microwave satellite images indicated that concentric eyewalls formed, which increased the size of the core of Rai. Winds to typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Typhoon Rai. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Rai was 31.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 18.9 and the Hurricane Wind intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 50.5. Rai was capable of causing regional severe damage.

Typhoon Rai will weaken when the center is over land, but it will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong typhoon as it moves over the southern Philippines. Rai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Typhoon Rai’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear but the wind shear will be too small to cause much weakening. Typhoon Rai weaken gradually when the center passes over land.

Typhoon Rai will move south of a surface high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Rai toward the west-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track the core of Typhoon Rai will pass over southern Leyte, northern Bohol, Cebu, northern Negros, southern Panay Island, northern Palawan, Linapacan Island, Culion Island and Busuanga Island. Typhoon Rai will weaken when the center passes over land, but it will be the equivalent of a major hurricane as it moves across the southern Philippines. Typhoon Rai will bring very strong winds and locally heavy rain to northern Mindanao, Leyte, Samar, Cebu, Negros, Bohol, Panay Island, Palawan, Linacapan Island, Culion Island and Busuanga Island. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Rai will cause a significant storm surge along coasts where the wind blows the water toward the shore. Typhoon Rai could cause severe damage in locations that experience the inner core of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Sanba Brings Rain to the Southern Philippines

Tropical Storm Sanba brought rain to the southern Philippines on Monday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Sanba located at latitude 9.9°N and longitude 125.1°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) east of Cebu, Philippines.  Sanba was moving toward the west-northwest at 19 m.p.h. (31 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Storm Sanba dropped locally heavy rain on parts of northern Mindanao, Siriagao Island, Dinegat Island, Leyte, southern Samar, Bohol and Cebu on Monday.  The circulation of Tropical Storm Sanba was not well organized.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were occurring to the north and west of the center of circulation.  There were thin bands of showers and low clouds to the south and east of the center.  An upper level ridge to the north of Sanba was producing easterly winds which were blowing over the top of the circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear which was the primary reason for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Storm Sanba will move through an environment marginal for intensification.  Sanba will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  The upper level ridge will continue to produce moderate vertical wind shear, which will inhibit intensification.  In addition, the center of circulation will move across Cebu and Negros.  Increased friction caused by the and could weaken Tropical Storm Sanba.  Sanba could intensify a little when the center moves over the Sulu Sea.

A ridge north of Sanba is steering the tropical storm toward the west.  A general motion toward the west is expected to continue for another 24 to 36 hours.  After that time Sanba could move a little more toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Sanba is forecast to move over Cebu and Negros during the next 12 to 18 hours.  Sanba will move across the Sulu Sea toward Palawan and over the South China Sea.  Tropical Storm Sanba could drop locally heavy rain over Cebu, Negros, Panay and Palawan.  Prolonged heavy rain could cause flooding in some places.

Tropical Storm Tembin Strengthens Over the Sulu Sea

Tropical Storm Tembin moved west of Mindanao and it strengthened over the Sulu Sea on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Tembin was located at latitude 8.0°N and longitude 120.8°E which put it about 200 miles (320 km) southeast of Puerto Princesa, Philippines.  Tembin was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Tropical Storm Tembin weakened when the center moved across Mindanao.  The center is back over water in the Sulu Sea and the circulation of Tembin is strengthening again.  There is a distinct low level center of circulation, but the distribution of thunderstorms is asymmetrical.  Most of the strong thunderstorms are occurring in bands in the western half of the circulation.  Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consist primarily of low clouds and showers.  The storms west of the center are generating upper level divergence which is pumping mass away to the west of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass has caused the surface pressure to decrease and the wind speeds have started to increase.

Tropical Storm Tembin will be moving through an environment that is favorable for intensification.  Tembin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level ridge north of Tropical Storm Tembin is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.   Those winds are causing vertical wind shear, which is probably the reason for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.  However, the shear is not strong enough to prevent Tropical Storm Tembin from intensifying.  Tembin could strengthen into a typhoon during the next day or two while is moves over the South China Sea.

The subtropical ridge north of Tembin is steering the tropical storm toward the west.  A general motion toward the west-northwest west is forecast for the next two or three days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Tembin will move across Palawan in about 18 hours.  Tembin could reach the southern coast of Vietnam in about three days.  Tembin will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to Palawan.  Tembin could be a typhoon when it approaches southern Vietnam.

Elsewhere over the western North Pacific Ocean Tropical Depression Kai-tak is approaching the east coast of Malaysia.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Kai-tak was located at latitude 4.0°N and longitude 104.4°E which put it about 175 miles (285 km) north-northeast of Singapore.  Kai-tak was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.  Tropical Depression Kai-tak will drop locally heavy rain over portions of Malaysia, which could cause floods and mudslides.

Tropical Storm Tembin Drops Heavy Rain on Mindanao

Tropical Storm Tembin dropped heavy rain on Mindanao on Thursday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Tembin was located at latitude 7.9°N and longitude 126.1°E which put it near Monkayo, Philippines.  Tembin was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Storm Tembin intensified on Thursday before it made landfall on Mindanao.  More thunderstorms developed near the core of the circulation and those storms generated stronger upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease and the wind speed to increase.  Although the circulation became much better organized, the distribution of thunderstorms was still asymmetrical.  There were far fewer thunderstorms forming in the eastern half of the circulation.

The center of Tropical Storm Tembin will be moving across Mindanao for another day or so.  The mountains on the island will disrupt the lower levels of the circulation and increased friction will slow the wind speed.  Tropical Storm Tembin will weaken while the center is over Mindanao.  However, the middle and upper parts of the circulation are likely to remain intact, and Tropical Storm Tembin will move through a favorable environment when it reaches the Sulu Sea.  Tembin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level ridge north of Tropical Storm Tembin is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  The winds in the middle and lower levels are also blowing from the east and the vertical wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification of Tropical Storm Tembin once the center gets back over water.  Temping could strengthen into a typhoon when it reaches the South China Sea.

The ridge north of Tembin is steering the tropical storm toward the west-southwest.  A general motion toward the west is expected during the next two to three days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Tembin will move east to west over Mindanao during the next 24 hours.  Afterwards, Tropical Storm Tembin will move across the Sulu Sea toward Palawan.  Tembin could be near Palawan in about 48 hours and it could be over the South China Sea shortly thereafter.

Tropical Storm Tembin represents a serious hazard for Mindanao and nearby locations in the southern Philippines.  Tembin is dropping heavy rain and it has the potential to cause serious floods.  Water levels could rise quickly and flash floods could develop.  Saturated soils could result in mudslides in areas of steeper terrain.

Farther to the west, Tropical Storm Kai-tak continued to move across the South China Sea.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Kai-tak was located at latitude 5.7°N and longitude 106.9°E which put it about 250 miles (400 km) east of Kuala Terengganu, Malaysia.  Kai-tak was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Storm Kai-tak Weakens Over the Philippines

Tropical Storm Kai-tak weakened as it passed over the Philippines.   Kai-tak dropped heavy rain which caused floods and mudslides before it weakened.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Kai-tak was located at latitude 10.5°N and longitude 119.1°E which put it about 75 miles (120 km) northeast of Puerto Princesa, Philippines.  Kai-tak was moving toward the west-southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Moving over islands of the central Philippines disrupted parts of the circulation of Tropical Storm Kai-tak.  In addition an upper level ridge produced strong easterly winds which blew across the top of the circulation.  Those winds caused moderate vertical wind shear.  The strong upper level winds periodically weakened the thunderstorms near the core of the circulation.  The upper level winds slowed at times and more storms developed near the center of Tropical Storm Kai-tak.  The persistent vertical wind shear weakened the low level circulation.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of Tropical Storm Kai-tak during recent hours, but the circulation remains asymmetrical.  The new storms were forming west of the center of circulation.  There were only a few thin bands of showers in the eastern half of the circulation.  The strongest winds were occurring in the thunderstorms west of the center of Tropical Storm Kai-tak.  The Japan Meteorological Agency was maintaining a classification of a tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Kai-tak will move through an environment only marginally favorable for intensification.  Kai-tak will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level ridge will continue to produce strong easterly winds and there will continue to be moderate vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Kai-tak could maintain its intensify, if the wind shear does not increase.  However, if the upper level winds get stronger, then they could blow the top off of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Kai-tak is moving south of a subtropical ridge which is steering the tropical storm toward the west-southwest.  The west-southwesterly motion is forecast to continue for another day or two.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Kai-tak will move across Palawan and over the South China Sea.