Category Archives: Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Herman Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

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Tropical Cyclone Herman rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on Thursday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Herman was located at latitude 16.5°S and longitude 106.0°E which put it about 665 miles (1070 km) east-southeast of Cocos Islands. Herman was moving toward the south-southeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Herman rapidly intensified to nearly the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean on Thursday. A small circular eye was present at the center of Herman’s circulation. A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Herman. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Herman was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Herman. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Herman was 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 28.6. Tropical Cyclone Herman was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta made landfall in Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Herman will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Herman will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, an upper level trough will approach Tropical Cyclone Herman from the west. The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will get stronger during the next 24 hours. Those stronger winds will blow toward the top of Herman’s circulation and the vertical wind shear will increase. More vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Herman to weaken.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Cyclone Herman toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Herman will move farther away from Cocos Islands. When the stronger vertical wind shear causes Herman to weaken, it will be steered by the winds closer to the surface. Those winds will steer Tropical Cyclone Herman toward the west during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Herman Strengthens Northwest of Australia

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Tropical Cyclone Herman strengthened over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia during Wednesday night. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Herman was located at latitude 15.5°S and longitude 105.1°E which put it about 570 miles (920 km) east-southeast of Cocos Islands. Herman was moving toward the southeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Herman strengthened over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia during the past 24 hours. The inner end of a rainband wrapped completely around the center of Herman’s circulation. A small circular eye formed at the center of circulation. A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Herman. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Herman’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Herman will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Herman will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, an upper level trough will approach Tropical Cyclone Herman from the west. The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will get stronger during the next 24 hours. Those stronger winds will blow toward the top of Herman’s circulation and the vertical wind shear will increase. More vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Herman to weaken.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Cyclone Herman toward the southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Herman will move farther away from Cocos Islands. When the stronger vertical wind shear causes Herman to weaken, it will be steered by the winds closer to the surface. Those winds will steer Tropical Cyclone Herman toward the west during the end of the week and the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Herman Forms Northwest of Australia

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Tropical Cyclone Herman formed over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on Wednesday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Herman was located at latitude 13.9°S and longitude 101.5°E which put it about 300 miles (480 km) east-southeast of Cocos Islands. Herman was moving toward the southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

An area of low pressure over the South Indian Ocean east-southeast of Cocos Islands strengthened on Wednesday morning and the the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Herman. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western side of the center of Herman’s circulation. The strongest winds were occurring in the part of the band west of the center. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Herman. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Herman’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Herman will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Herman will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the eastern part of the South Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Herman’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Herman is likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours. An upper level trough will approach Herman from the west on Thursday. The trough will cause the upper level winds to get stronger and the vertical wind shear will increase. More vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Herman to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Herman will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the eastern South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Herman toward the southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Herman will move away from Cocos Islands. When Herman weakens later this week, it will be steered by the winds closer to the surface. Those winds will steer Tropical Cyclone Herman toward the west during the end of the week and the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Drops Heavy Rain on Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Freddy dropped heavy rain on parts of Mozambique on Sunday. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 17.2°S and longitude 36.3°E which put it about 55 miles (90 km) northwest of Quelimane, Mozambique. Freddy was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (9 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy dropped heavy rain on parts of Mozambique and eastern Zimbabwe on Sunday as it moved slowly farther inland. Since Freddy was moving slowly, there were prolonged periods of heavy rain in some locations. The prolonged periods of heavy rain caused a high risk for floods in those locations. Tropical Cyclone Freddy was still producing winds to tropical storm force in the bands in the eastern side of the circulation over the Mozambique Channel.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next several days. Freddy’s circulation is forecast to meander over Mozambique and eastern Zimbabwe. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will continue to weaken slowly while the center of circulation is over land. Freddy will continue to drop heavy rain over parts of Mozambique and eastern Zimbabwe for the next 48 hours. Additional flooding is likely to occur in those places that receive prolonged heavy rain.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Hits Mozambique Again

Tropical Cyclone Freddy hit Mozambique again on Saturday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 17.9°S and longitude 37.2°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) east of Quelimane, Mozambique. Freddy was moving toward the northwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy intensified before it hit the coast of Mozambique east of Quelimane on Saturday. A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) formed at the center of Freddy’s circulation. A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Freddy increased in size as Freddy intensified. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Freddy’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Freddy was 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 32.7. Tropical Cyclone Freddy was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sally when Sally hit South Alabama in 2020. Tropical Cyclone Freddy was capable of causing regional serious damage.

The steering currents weakened as Tropical Cyclone Freddy approached the coast of central Mozambique. Freddy is forecast to meander near the coast of Mozambique during the next 48 hours. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will begin to weaken when the center of circulation moves completely over land. However, Freddy will cause a prolonged period of strong winds and heavy rain near Quelimane. Heavy rain will cause floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Freddy could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast. Widespread electricity outages are likely in the area near Quelimane. There is a chance Freddy could move back over the Mozambique Channel next week.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Creeps Toward Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Freddy crept slowly toward the coast of Mozambique on Friday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 18.0°S and longitude 38.3°E which put it about 130 miles (210 km) east-southeast of Quelimane, Mozambique. Freddy was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy crept slowly toward the coast of central Mozambique on Friday. Freddy strengthened gradually as it moved closer to the coast. A small circular eye was at the center of Freddy’s circulation on microwave satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the core of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Freddy was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will be in an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Freddy will move into a moister air mass that will be more favorable for intensification. Tropical Cyclone Freddy is likely to intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.

A high pressure system southeast of Madagascar will steer Tropical Cyclone Freddy slowly toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Freddy will approach the coast of Mozambique between Quelimane and Pebane. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of central Mozambique. Heavy rain is very likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Freddy could also produce a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along portions of the coast. The currents steering Tropical Cyclone Freddy could weaken even more during the weekend. If the steering currents weaken further, then Freddy could stall near the coast of Mozambique. If Tropical Cyclone Freddy stalls near the coast, then prolonged heavy rain could cause serious floods.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Keeps Moving Toward Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Freddy continued to move toward Mozambique on Thursday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 19.3°S and longitude 38.7°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) southeast of Quelimane, Mozambique. Freddy was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy moved through a region of drier air and weakened on Wednesday. However, Freddy moved into a moister environment on Thursday morning and it began to strengthen again. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of circulation and an eye appeared to be forming at the center of Freddy. More thunderstorms developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Storms near the center generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 165 miles (270 km) from the center of Freddy’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will be in an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Freddy will move into a moister air mass that will be more favorable for intensification. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will intensify the next 24 hours while it moves through the drier air. Freddy is likely to strengthen back to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

A high pressure system south of Madagascar will steer Tropical Cyclone Freddy toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Freddy will approach the coast of Mozambique near Quelimane in 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of central Mozambique. Heavy rain is very likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Freddy could also produce a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along portions of the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Moves Toward Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Freddy moved toward Mozambique on Wednesday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 20.8°S and longitude 40.0°E which put it about 260 miles (420 km) southeast of Quelimane, Mozambique. Freddy was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy moved toward the coast of central Mozambique on Wednesday morning. Freddy appeared to be moving into a region of drier air. The ring of thunderstorms around the eye was broken and bands in the western half of Freddy’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Most thunderstorms were occurring in the eastern half of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Storms near the center of Freddy’s circulation continued to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Freddy was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Freddy’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Freddy was 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 28.5. Tropical Cyclone Freddy was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment that will be marginal for intensification during the next 24 hours. Freddy will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will be in an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, the drier air in the western half of Freddy’s circulation will inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Freddy is likely to weaken gradually during the next 24 hours while it moves through the drier air. Freddy could strengthen again on Thursday if it moves into a more humid environment.

A high pressure system south of Madagascar will steer Tropical Cyclone Freddy toward the northwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Freddy will approach the coast of Mozambique near Quelimane in 42 hours. Tropical Cyclone Freddy is likely to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of central Mozambique. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Freddy could also produce a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along portions of the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Freddy rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Mozambique Channel west of Madagascar on Tuesday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 22.8°S and longitude 42.0°E which put it about 110 miles (185 km) west-northwest of Toliara, Madagascar. Freddy was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon west of Madagascar on Tuesday morning. A small circular eye with a diameter of 15 miles (24 km) formed at the center of Freddy’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Storm Freddy. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Freddy became more symmetrical when Freddy intensified rapidly. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Freddy’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Freddy was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 28.3.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Freddy will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will be in an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will intensify during the next 36 hours. Freddy is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane within 36 hours.

A high pressure system south of Madagascar will steer Tropical Cyclone Freddy toward the northwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Freddy will gradually move farther away from Madagascar. Freddy will approach the coast of Mozambique near Pebane by the end of the week. Tropical Cyclone Freddy is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it approaches Mozambique.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Stalls West of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Freddy stalled west of Madagascar on Monday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 23.8°S and longitude 42.6°E which put it about 110 miles (185 km) west-southwest of Toliara, Madagascar. Freddy was moving toward the west at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy gradually strengthened on Monday while it was stalled west of Madagascar. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Freddy’s circulation and an eye appeared to be forming. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (300 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will be in an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Freddy will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will be in an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will intensify during the next 24 hours. Freddy is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within 36 hours.

A high pressure system south of Madagascar will start to steer Tropical Cyclone Freddy toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Freddy will gradually move farther away from Madagascar on Tuesday. Freddy could approach the coast of Mozambique by the end of the week. Tropical Cyclone Freddy is likely to be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it approaches Mozambique.