Category Archives: Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Jobo Moves Toward Tanzania

Tropical Cyclone Jobo moved toward Tanzania on Thursday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jobo was located at latitude 9.1°S and longitude 43.6°E which put it about 335 miles (535 km) east-southeast of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Jobo was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

The intensity and organization of Tropical Cyclone Jobo fluctuated during the past 48 hours as the strength of the upper level winds changed. At times Jobo intensified to the equivalent of a strong tropical storm when the upper levels winds diminished. Whenever the upper level winds were stronger, vertical wind shear caused the circulation to weaken. Tropical Cyclone Jobo was intensifying again on Thursday night. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern and western sides of the center of circulation. Thunderstorms near the center generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Jobo was small, which was why vertical wind shear had such a big effect on the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Jobo will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Jobo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. Jobo will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over southern Africa and the Southwest Indian Ocean. The winds are weaker near the middle of the ridge and there will be less vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Jobo could strengthen during the next 36 hours, but any increase in the wind shear could cause the small circulation to weaken again.

Tropical Cyclone Jobo will move around the northern side of a subtropical high pressure system over southern Africa. The high will steer Jobo toward the west-northwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Jobo could approach the coast of Tanzania in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jobo Forms North of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Jobo formed just to the north of Madagascar on Tuesday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jobo was located at latitude 10.3°S and longitude 49.8°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) north of Ansiranana, Madagascar. Jobo was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system north of Madagascar strengthened on Tuesday afternoon and Meteo France la Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Jobo. The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone Jobo was asymmetrical. Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the western side of Jobo. Bands on the eastern side of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The inner end of a rainband was wrapping around the western side of the center of circulation. Storms near the center started to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and west of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Jobo will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Jobo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. It will move near the northern part of a small upper level ridge. The ridge will produce southeasterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be large enough to prevent Tropical Cyclone Jobo from strengthening. Some numerical models are forecasting that Jobo could intensify into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Jobo will move north of a surface high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high will steer Jobo slowly toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Jobo will remain north of Madagascar. The steering currents could weaken later this week and Jobo could stall northwest of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja Brings Wind and Rain to Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Seroja brought wind and rain to Western Australia on Sunday. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja was located at latitude 28.1°S and longitude 114.3°E which put it about 30 miles (45 km) south-southeast of Kalbarri, Australia. Seroja was moving toward the southeast at 26 m.p.h. (43 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning was in effect from Overlander Roadhouse to Lancelin. The Warning extended inland to Merredin.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja made landfall on the coast of Western Australia between Kalbarri and Geraldton. Seroja strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon before it made landfall. The airport at Geraldton was reporting sustained winds to 56 m.p.h. (91 km/h) and wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) as the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja approached the station.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move rapidly across the southwestern part of Western Australia during the next 24 hours. Seroja will bring gusty winds and it will drop locally heavy rain over parts of Western Australia. Flood Watches have been issued for the Wooramel, Murchison, Greenough, Yarra Yarra Lakes, Avon River and parts of the Salt Lake Catchments.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja Turns Toward Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Seroja turned toward the coast of Western Australia on Saturday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja was located at latitude 23.2°S and longitude 110.2°E which put it about 435 miles (700 km) northwest of Kalbarri, Australia. Seroja was moving toward the southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning was in effect from Minilya Roadhouse to Lancelin, Australia. The Warning included Cape Cuvier, Carnavon, Denham, Kalbarri, Jurien Bay and Lancelin.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon after it turned toward the coast of Western Australia on Saturday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Seroja and microwave satellite images showed evidence of the formation of an eye. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Tropical Cyclone Seroja. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Seroja generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Seroja will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Seroja. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will limit intensification, but Tropical Cyclone Seroja could get a little stronger during the next 12 hours. Seroja will begin to weaken when it moves over Western Australia.

The upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will steer Tropical Cyclone Seroja toward the southeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja will pass just to the west of Denham during the next 12 hours. Seroja make landfall on the coast of Western Australia near Kalbarri in 15 hours. Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move across the southwestern part of Western Australia after it makes landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will bring produce winds to hurricane/typhoon force to the portion of the coast near Kalbarri. Winds to tropical storm force could occur along the portion of the coast from Denham to Geraldton. Wind blowing water toward the coast could cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) near where the center makes landfall. Tropical Cyclone Seroja will drop locally heavy rain over parts of Western Australia. Flood Watches have been issued for the Wooramel, Murchison, Greenough, Yarra Yarra Lakes, Avon River and parts of the Salt Lake Catchments.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja Prompts Watch for Western Australia

A potential threat posed by Tropical Cyclone Seroja prompted the issuance of a Watch for the coast of Western Australia. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja was located at latitude 19.2°S and longitude 109.8°E which put it about 315 miles (505 km) northwest of Exmouth, Australia. Seroja was moving toward the southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Watch was issued for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Coral Bay to Lancelin. The Watch included Carnarvon, Denham, Kalbarri and Geraldton.

More thunderstorms developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja on Thursday night. The distribution of thunderstorms was more symmetrical, which indicated that the vertical wind shear was decreasing. Thunderstorms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Seroja.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Seroja will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 30°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge centered northwest of Australia during the next 24 hours. The upper level winds are weaker near the axis of the ridge and the wind shear will decrease. Tropical Cyclone Seroja could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours. Seroja could strengthen more rapidly if the inner end of a rainband wraps around the center and an inner core forms.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia during the next day or so. The high will steer Seroja toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will approach Tropical Cyclone Seroja from the west during the weekend. The trough will turn Seroja toward the southeast. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Seroja will make landfall on the coast of Western Australia between Denham and Lancelin in 60 hours.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Odette was interacting with the northwest side of Tropical Cyclone Seroja. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Odette was located at latitude 14.5°S and longitude 108.2°E which put it about 675 miles (1090 km) northwest of Exmouth, Australia. Odette was moving toward the east at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb. Even though the wind speeds are stronger in Tropical Cyclone Odette than they are in Tropical Cyclone Seroja, the circulation around Seroja is larger. The circulation of Odette is forecast to absorbed by the larger circulation of Seroja. In addition, upper level divergence from Seroja will cause vertical wind shear over Odette, which will also cause the circulation around Odette to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja Spins Northwest of Australia

Tropical Cyclone Seroja was spinning northwest of Australia on Wednesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja was located at latitude 16.0°S and longitude 113.4°E which put it about 410 miles (665 km) north of Exmouth, Australia. Seroja was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja was exhibiting signs of intensification on Wednesday night, but it was also still being affected by vertical wind shear. More thunderstorms were beginning to form near the center of circulation. However, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical. Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Seroja. Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move through an environment more favorable for intensification during the next several days. Seroja will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 30°C. It will move under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge centered over northwestern Australia during the next 24 hours. The ridge will produce northeasterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Seroja could intensify gradually during the next 24 hours. Seroja will move closer to the axis of the upper level ridge in a day or so. The winds are weaker near the axis of the ridge and the wind shear will decrease. Tropical Cyclone Seroja could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 36 hours. Seroja could strengthen more rapidly when the vertical wind shear decreases and it is forecast to intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high will steer Seroja toward the southwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Seroja will remain northwest of Western Australia during the next two days. An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will approach Seroja during the weekend. The trough will turn Tropical Cyclone Seroja toward the southeast and it could approach the coast of Western Australia south of Denham in 72 hours.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone 27S was interacting with the western side of Tropical Cyclone Seroja. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 27S was located at latitude 15.8°S and longitude 105.9°E which put it about 645 miles (1040 km) northwest of Exmouth, Australia. The tropical cyclone was moving toward the northeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja Moves away from Indonesia

Tropical Cyclone Seroja moved slowly away to the south of Indonesia on Monday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja was located at latitude 11.7°S and longitude 119.8°E which put it about 460 miles (740 km) north-northwest of Broome, Australia. Seroja was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

After dropping heavy rain over parts of eastern Indonesia and causing flash floods and mudslides, Tropical Cyclone Seroja moved slowly away from the area on Monday. The circulation around Seroja appeared to be a little stronger on Monday night. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around a well defined low level center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storms force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next several days. Seroja will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 30°C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge centered over northwestern Australia. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Seroja could intensify gradually during the next 48 hours. Seroja could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next several days. The wind shear will decrease later this week and Tropical Cyclone Seroja could strengthen more rapidly when that occurs.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high will Seroja toward the southwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Seroja will remain northwest of Western Australia during the next two days. An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will approach Seroja later this week. The trough could turn Tropical Cyclone Seroja toward the southeast and it could eventually threaten Western Australia.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone 27S churned south of Christmas Island. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone 27S was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 105.5°E which put it about 700 miles (1100 km) northwest of Learmonth, Australia. The tropical cyclone was moving toward the southeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja Intensifies South of Indonesia

Tropical Cyclone Seroja intensified south of Indonesia on Sunday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja was located at latitude 10.7°S and longitude 122.3°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) west-southwest of Kupang, Indonesia. Seroja was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A tropical low near West Timor intensified into Tropical Cyclone Seroja south of Indonesia on Sunday. Bands of strong thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Seroja. The strongest bands were in the northern and western parts of the circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days. Seroja will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 30°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge. The winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Seroja will continue to intensify during the next 48 hours. Seroja could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high will Seroja toward the southwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Seroja will remain northwest of Western Australia during the next two days. An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will approach Seroja later this week. The trough could turn Tropical Cyclone Seroja toward the southeast and it could eventually threaten Western Australia.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone 27S formed south of Christmas Island. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone 27S was located at latitude 15.0°S and longitude 104.8°E which put it about 330 miles (535 km) south of Christmas Island. The tropical cyclone was moving toward the south at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Low Develops Near West Timor

A tropical low developed near West Timor on Saturday. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of the tropical low was located at latitude 10.6°S and longitude 123.6°E which put it about 30 miles (50 km) west of Kupang, Indonesia. The tropical low was nearly stationary. The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

An area of low pressure near West Timor exhibited more organization on Saturday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology classified the system as a tropical low. Visible and microwave satellite images showed a distinct low level center of circulation. More thunderstorms formed near the center of the tropical low. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical low.

The tropical low will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days. The tropical low will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 30°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge. The winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. The tropical low is likely to intensify into the equivalent of a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. It could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon by early next week.

The tropical low will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours. It will remain near West Timor during that time. Thunderstorms in rainbands will drop locally heavy rain and flash floods could occur. A high pressure system over Australia will begin to steer the tropical low toward the southwest in a day or so. On its anticipated track the system will remain northwest of Western Australia during the next few days.

Tropical Cyclone Habana Weakens East of Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Habana continued to weaken east of Rodrigues on Sunday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Habana was located at latitude 22.0°S and longitude 71.1°E which put it about 425 miles (685 km) east of Rodrigues. Habana was moving toward the east at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Habana continued to weaken over the South Indian Ocean east of Rodrigues during the weekend. An upper level trough east of Madagascar was producing strong westerly winds which were blowing toward the top of Habana. Those winds were creating moderate vertical wind shear and the shear was the main factor causing Tropical Cyclone Habana to weaken. There was no longer an eye at the center of Habana. Bands of shower and thunderstorms were still revolving around the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Habana will remain in an environment that will cause it to weaken during the next several days. The upper level trough continue to create moderate vertical wind shear. Habana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 26°C. However, the wind shear will be too strong and it will prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Habana is likely to continue to weaken gradually.

Tropical Cyclone Habana will move through a region where two weather systems will compete to steer it. The westerly winds in the upper levels will try to push Habana toward the east. A high pressure system in the lower levels will try to push Habana toward the west. The upper level trough could push Tropical Cyclone Habana slowly toward the east during the next 12 to 24 hours. When Habana weakens further, the circulation will not extend as high into the atmosphere. So, the high pressure system in the lower levels will push Tropical Cyclone Habana toward the west during the upcoming week. On its anticipated track Habana could be southeast of Rodrigues by the end of the week.