Category Archives: Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Jawad Spins over Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Jawad was spinning over the Bay of Bengal east of India on Friday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jawad was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 85.0°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) southeast of Visakhapatnam, India. Jawad was moving toward the north at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jawad continued to spin over the Bay of Bengal east of India on Friday night. An upper level ridge over the Bay of Bengal was producing southeasterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Jawad’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the shear was keeping Tropical Cyclone Jawad from getting stronger. The strongest thunderstorms in Jawad were occurring in the northern half of the circulation because of the vertical wind shear. Bands in the southern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Jawad.

Tropical Cyclone Jawad will move through an environment only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Jawad will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the Bay of Bengal. The ridge will continue to produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Jawad’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear is likely to remain strong enough to prevent Tropical Cyclone Jawad from strengthening during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jawad will move around the western end of a high pressure system over southeast Asia. The high pressure system will steer Jawad toward the north-northeast during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Jawad will move parallel to the east coast of India during the next 36 hours. Jawad could approach Kolkata in 72 hours. Tropical Cyclone Jawad could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the coastal parts of northeastern Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, and West Bengal.

Tropical Cyclone 05B Forms over Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone 05B formed over the Bay of Bengal on Thursday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone 05B was located at latitude 14.4°N and longitude 85.8°E which put it about 360 miles (580 km) southeast of Visakhapatnam, India. Tropical Cyclone 05B was moving toward the northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A low pressure system over the central Bay of Bengal strengthened on Thursday night into Tropical Cyclone 05B. The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone 05B was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern half of the tropical cyclone. Bands in the southern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The thunderstorms in the northern half of the circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north of the tropical cyclone. The distribution of wind speeds was also asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) in the northern half of the tropical cyclone. The winds in the southern half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone 05B will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the Bay of Bengal. The ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone 05B is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours. The India Meteorological Department will likely give the tropical cyclone a name on Friday.

Tropical Cyclone 05B will move around the western end of a high pressure system over southeast Asia. The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 05B will approach the coast of India northeast of Visakhapatnam in 24 hours. It will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the coastal parts of northeastern Andhra Pradesh and Orissa. Tropical Cyclone 05B will move more slowly after it nears the coast and it could turn toward the northeast during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai Forms Southwest of Java

Tropical Cyclone Teratai formed over the South Indian Ocean southwest of Java on Wednesday morning. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Teratai was located at latitude 9.3°S and longitude 102.2°E which put it about 375 miles (605 km) southwest of Jakarta, Indonesia. Teratai was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A distinct center of circulation formed in a small low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean southwest of Java on Wednesday morning and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Teratai. Thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation. Shorts bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Teratai. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Teratai.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move through an environment that will be only marginally favorable for intensification during the next several days. Teratai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge centered north of Australia. The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Teratai’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move into an area where drier air is sinking toward the surface of the ocean. The sinking drier air will inhibit the formation of new thunderstorms. Tropical Cyclone Teratai could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours. However, the effects of the sinking air and vertical wind shear are likely to cause Teratai to weaken later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Teratai toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move farther away from Indonesia. Teratai could move north of Cocos Island later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Paddy Weakens South of Christmas Island

Tropical Cyclone Paddy weakened over the South Indian Ocean south of Christmas Island on Wednesday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Paddy was located at latitude 14.5°S and longitude 105.5°E which put it about 270 miles (440 km) south of Christmas Island. Paddy was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean west of Australia was producing strong northwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Paddy’s circulation. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear and the upper level winds were blowing the tops off of many of the thunderstorms around Paddy’s circulation. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the southeastern side of Tropical Cyclone Paddy. Bands in the other parts of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The strong vertical wind shear was causing Paddy to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Paddy will move through an environment unfavorable for a tropical cyclone during the next several days. Paddy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26˚C. However, the upper level trough west of Australia will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear will blow the tops off of any new thunderstorms that develop. The winds around Tropical Cyclone Paddy will decrease gradually during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Paddy will move south of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Paddy toward the west during the next several days as the tropical cyclone weakens gradually. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Paddy will remain well to the south of Christmas Island.

Tropical Cyclone Paddy Develops Southeast of Christmas Island

Tropical Cyclone Paddy developed over the South Indian Ocean southeast of Christmas Island on Monday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Paddy was located at latitude 13.8°S and longitude 108.0°E which put it about 275 miles (440 km) southeast of Christmas, Island. Paddy was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean south of Java strengthened on Monday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Paddy. The strongest thunderstorms in Paddy’s circulation were occurring in bands that were southeast and northwest of the center of circulation. Bands in the northeastern and southwestern parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Paddy.

Tropical Cyclone Paddy will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Paddy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Paddy could get a little stronger during the next 12 hours. Paddy will move under an area where there are strong northwesterly winds in the upper levels on Tuesday. Those winds will create strong vertical wind shear and the shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Paddy to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Paddy will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Paddy toward the southwest during the next 12 to 24 hours. When Tropical Cyclone Paddy starts to weaken on Tuesday, it will be steered by winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Those winds will steer Paddy toward the west during the middle of this week. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Paddy will remain well to the south of Christmas Island.

Tropical Cyclone 04B Brings Rain to Southern India

Tropical Cyclone 04B brought rain to parts of southern India on Thursday. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone 04B was located at latitude 13.1°N and longitude 80.6°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) east of Chennai, India. The tropical cyclone was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (14 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A low pressure system over the western Bay of Bengal strengthened on Thursday morning and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center designated the system as Tropical Cyclone 04B. The India Meteorological Department classified the system as a depression. The center of Tropical Cyclone 04B was located near Chennai, India. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands west of the center of circulation and along the northern periphery of the tropical cyclone. Bands in other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 40 miles (65 km/h) from the center of the tropical cyclone.

The center of Tropical Cyclone 04B will make landfall on the southern coast of India near Chennai in a few hours. The tropical cyclone will bring gusty winds to the northern coast of Tamil Nadu and the southern coast of Andhra Pradesh. Tropical Cyclone 04B will drop locally heavy rain over parts or northern Tamil Nadu, southern Andhra Pradesh and southern Karnataka as it moves inland. The tropical cyclone will weaken gradually after it moves inland over southern India.

Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab Makes Landfall in Oman

Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab made landfall on the north coast of Oman on Sunday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab was located at latitude 23.6°N and longitude 57.1°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) southwest of Al Suwaiq, Oman. Shaheen/Gulab was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab made landfall on the north coast of Oman near Al Suwaiq on Sunday. Shaheen-Gulab was the equivalent of a strong tropical storm at the time of landfall. It was producing gusty winds and dropping heavy rain on parts of the northern coast of Oman. There were already reports of flash flooding causing casualties and damage in northern Oman. Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation. The was a ring of thunderstorms around the center and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab will move south of a high pressure system over Southwest Asia. The high will steer Shaheen/Gulab toward the west-southwest during the next 36 hours. Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab will weaken steadily as it moves over mountains in northern Oman. Shaheen/Gulab will continue to drop locally heavy rain over the normally dry region during the next day or so and more flash floods are likely to occur.

It is very rare for a tropical cyclone to thread the needle and move so far to the west over the Gulf of Oman. The small size of Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab allowed much of its circulation to remain over the warm water in the Gulf of Oman. Drier air over Iran and the Arabian Peninsula was confined to the periphery of the circulation. The inner core of Shaheen/Gulab remained intact. Tropical Cyclone Shaheen was even more unusual because it started as Tropical Cyclone Gulab over the Bay of Bengal.

Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab Moves West over Gulf of Oman

Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab moved west over the Gulf of Oman on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab was located at latitude 24.3°N and longitude 59.0°E which put it about 70 miles (110 km) north-northeast of Muscat, Oman. Shaheen/Gulab was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab was over the Gulf of Oman on Saturday night. Winds blowing around the southwestern part of Shaheen/Gulab appeared to be pulling drier air over Oman into the southern and eastern part of the tropical cyclone. A small eye was present at the center of circulation. The was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms, but there was a break in the southeastern part of the ring of storms. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in a band on the western side of Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab. Bands in the southern and eastern parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The circulation around Shaheen/Gulab was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Shaheen/Gulab will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over Southwest Asia. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, dry air from Oman could continue to limit the development of thunderstorms in the southern and eastern parts of Shaheen/Gulab. Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab could strengthen during the next 12 hours. If more drier air reaches the core of Shaheen/Gulab, the remainder of the eyewall could weaken. That would reduce the maximum sustained wind speed.

Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over Southwest Asia. The high will steer Shaheen/Gulab toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Gulab could approach the coast of Oman near Sohar in 18 hours. Shaheen/Gulab will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the part of Oman around Sohar. Heavy rain could cause flash floods. Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab will weaken quickly when it moves inland.

Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Arabian Sea on Friday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab was located at latitude 24.0°N and longitude 62.1°E which put it about 240 miles (390 km) east of Muscat, Oman. Shaheen/Gulab was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

The India Meteorological Department renamed Tropical Cyclone Gulab as Tropical Cyclone Shaheen when it re-intensified over the Arabian Sea. Shaheen/Gulab intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon east of Oman on Friday night. An eye formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Outside the core of Shaheen/Gulab the strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of the tropical cyclone. Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Shaheen/Gulab will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over Southwest Asia and the northern Arabian Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab could intensify during the next 12 hours. Dry air from Southwest Asia could limit the development of thunderstorms in the northern half of Shaheen/Gulab. If the drier air reaches the core of Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab, it could weaken during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Shaheen/Gulab will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over Southwest Asia. The high will steer Shaheen/Gulab toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Gulab could approach the coast of Oman west of Muscat in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Gulab Redevelops over the Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone Gulab redeveloped over the Arabian Sea on Thursday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gulab was located at latitude 22.8°N and longitude 65.1°E which put it about 175 miles (280 km) south-southwest of Karachi, Pakistan. Gulab was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gulab redeveloped over the Arabian Sea south of Pakistan on Thursday. Gulab originally formed over the northern Bay of Bengal a few days ago. Gulab made landfall on the coast of India near Tekkali and then it moved westward across India. Even though Tropical Cyclone Gulab weakened after it made landfall, the circulation remained relatively intact because of a favorable upper level environment. There was not a lot of vertical wind shear. In fact, upper level divergence continued to pump away mass and allow the surface low pressure system to persist. The circulation began to intensify as Gulab approached the Arabian Sea and it strengthened once the low level center was back over water.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Gulab exhibited more organization on Thursday. More thunderstorms developed in bands revolving around the center of Gulab. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Gulab. Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The northern half of Gulab appeared to be pulling drier air from Asia into its circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) on the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Gulab. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) on the southern side of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Gulab will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Gulab will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over Southwest Asia and the northern Arabian Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Dry air from Asia could continue to limit the development of thunderstorms in the northern half of Gulab. Tropical Cyclone Gulab will intensify during the next 36 hours and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Gulab will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over Southwest Asia. The high will steer Gulab toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Gulab could approach the coast of Oman near Muscat in 60 hours.